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Broncos analysis: What we’ve learned about Sean Payton’s team in Week 1 of free agency and what questions remain
A week’s worth of free agency is in the books for the Broncos.
They’ve added a trio of defenders in safety Brandon Jones, defensive tackle Malcolm Roach and inside linebacker Cody Barton. They’ve retained several more from Sean Payton’s first year in Denver.
They’ve explored several options at quarterback but haven’t come away with a transaction to show for it.
In the process, the Broncos cleared a significant amount of cap space and committed, officially, to using $53 million of it to pay down the first big chunk of former quarterback Russell Wilson’s $85 million in dead salary cap charges.
General manager George Paton predicted at the NFL combine last month that the Broncos would be “strategic” rather than aggressive and that word fits the bill so far. Denver has proceeded clearly set against overspending in an offseason that is shaping up to look like a re-set.
Here’s what we’ve learned and what questions remain.
Three things we learned
The identity of Vance Joseph’s defense is going to be different
By sheer numbers, the Broncos may not actually have much turnover on defense. By leadership, though, this group is going to look markedly different in 2024.
In and of themselves, the departures of safety Justin Simmons and Josey Jewell aren’t shocking, though seeing Simmons released in the days before free agency was a surprise. Taken together, that pair represented the central nervous system of Denver’s defense for years, a guiding force across several head coaches and coordinators.
Jewell relayed the defensive calls from Joseph on the sideline. Then Simmons served as the quarterback from the back end, ensuring the secondary communicated coverage with the linebackers, corners and nickel Ja’Quan McMillian.
Now the two communication hubs — and two of Denver’s defensive leaders — are gone. It won’t be entirely new, of course. Alex Singleton called the defense when Jewell was out. P.J. Locke has played a lot. ILB Jonas Griffith and S Caden Sterns have been around and are hoping to stay healthy.
“I feel good about the young core on defense, and we will just continue to add depth,” Paton said at the combine before the team signed Jones and Roach in free agency and got Locke back on a two-year deal.
Still, if a football defense is something like a baseball defense — you want to be strong up the middle at every level — then Denver is doing the rough equivalent of replacing its shortstop and center fielder.
This is now a group led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, defensive lineman Zach Allen and others like outside linebacker Baron Browning and Singleton. Familiar names, but also a new look and feel in the locker room.
The shakeup may have been anticipated, but it’s still massive
Aside from releasing Simmons rather than trading him or finding a way to extend his deal and lower his cap hit, none of the Broncos’ moves went down as stunners.
All the same, it is worth taking a step back and considering what’s happened this month.
Draw up a list of the most notable Broncos from the 2023 team. How far down the list do you get before you’ve added Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy and Simmons? Five or six, maybe? Jewell’s not far down the list from them, either.
Consider that seismic change and then think back to the middle of the season when Payton summarized his regular conversations with Paton in the lead-up to the trade deadline.
“We’ve got a good handle on this current roster and our vision for the roster a year from now,” Payton said then.
Denver could have worked on several veteran contracts before the 2023 season or during — it now infamously did try to do so with Wilson — but proceeded in a way that allowed the team to make whichever decision it wanted on a host of its most expensive players.
The first wave of moves on that front played out over the last 10 days. The string of goodbyes and thank-yous on social media is a good reminder that, while sentimentality exists in the NFL, it gets blocked out when making roster decisions.
The enduring trio
Despite the churn, left tackle Garett Bolles and receivers Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton endure. They’re now the longest-tenured trio of Broncos.
Patrick reworked his deal to stay for 2024, while the contracts for Sutton and Bolles remain unchanged. Sutton is due a $2 million roster bonus Sunday.
It’s quite possible that 2024 could be the last hurrah for any one or all of them, but overall the Broncos like Patrick’s leadership and the way Sutton responded in a 10-touchdown season under Payton in 2023. Bolles played steadily in 2023.
Denver cleared enough salary cap space in other ways that it can comfortably move forward with all three on the roster for 2024. The Broncos don’t have to look to trade Sutton or Bolles — they have not been in recent weeks, sources have indicated — though the possibility of moving either can’t be entirely ruled out if the right deal comes along.
Perhaps the draft will change the equation, either for Denver or another team. Bolles and Patrick are entering the final year of their contracts and the Broncos aren’t meaningfully committed to Sutton in terms of guaranteed money, either.
For now, this is the group that looks like 2024-and-then-we’ll-see.
Three questions that remain unanswered
The big one
The Broncos have been knee-deep in quarterback evaluation — free agency, trade market and next month’s draft — but have made no moves thus far.
Perhaps the most logical candidates from each of the first two categories were Sam Darnold and Sam Howell, respectively. Darnold got a one-year, $10 million deal from Minnesota, more than double what Baker Mayfield got last year as a former top draft pick trying to engineer a career resurgence. Washington got the equivalent of a late third-round draft pick from Seattle in exchange for Howell. Those are pretty strong prices and, in each case, the Broncos were clearly not willing to match or exceed.
The Broncos started the offseason looking for a player to add to their current mix of Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci in addition to a potential rookie. That they haven’t found that player so far might be just fine by them, but when you don’t have your answer at the game’s most important position, every move (or non-move) gets extra scrutiny.
Just how ready is Sean Payton to let the kids play?
Many of the Broncos’ moves this offseason signal a team getting younger and cheaper. Lloyd Cushenberry’s gone on a four-year, $50 million deal to Tennessee? Either second-year man Alex Forsyth or third-year Luke Wattenberg to replace him. Jeudy traded? In steps Marvin Mims, Jr. Denver views corner Riley Moss as a starting-caliber player but he only saw 23 defensive snaps as a rookie. Safety JL Skinner? One defensive snap
The players who got the most run as rookies were Mims (384 snaps or 35.4%) and linebacker Drew Sanders (23.8%).
The fact that the Broncos had a lack of immediate impact from its 2023 draft class may not come as a big shock since they didn’t pick until the last selection of the second round, but the Year 1 to Year 2 jump for this group — plus college free agents like Jaleel McLaughlin, Nate Adkins and several offensive linemen — is going to be critical. And where Denver was reluctant to put Sanders, Moss and Mims into big roles right away as rookies, the coaching staff may not have the same luxury with its 2024 draft class.
You’ve got $67 million in dead salary cap so far. You’ve cleared some big contracts off the books by release and trade. Roll with the kids. Let them play, make mistakes and learn. A Los Angeles Rams team in a similar situation (except at quarterback) took that route in 2023 and ended up making a surprise run toward the playoffs after looking like a mess during a 3-6 start.
What’s the best use of remaining cap space?
The Broncos have somewhere between $22.6 million in cap space to work with before Barton’s deal is official, according to OvertheCap data. Their current slate of draft picks projects to take up about $4 million more, though that will change slightly depending on how much the team moves around in the draft.
So for estimate’s sake let’s say Denver has $16 million to work with now. They’ll sign more players, though big, splashy contracts at this point would be a surprise.
Here’s one path forward: Stuff most of the rest in your pocket and don’t even think about it until 2025. The NFL allows teams to roll cap space over. Denver had been at about $10 million in rollover until having less than $1 million this year.
Get back on that track. Take $10 million and treat it as if you’re actually paying down $63 million of Wilson’s dead cap rather than $53 million. If you surprise and you’re in contention mid-season, go ahead and deploy some of that flexibility for the here and now.
Otherwise, save as much of it as you can and spend it next year on mega-extensions for Pat Surtain II and Quinn Meinerz. Prepare for bigger cap hits from 2023 free-agent additions like Mike McGlinchey, Ben Powers and Zach Allen. After converting all of their salaries to bonuses for 2024, their combined cap charges this year are a paltry $21.65 million. Currently for 2025, the trio combines to charge $61.03 million.
Denver only has 27 players currently under contract for 2025 (28 once Surtain’s fifth-year option is exercised between now and May 2). Play this year right with the remaining cap space, and the team could have ample room to work, a curbed Wilson dead cap figure to clear his money entirely off the books and perhaps, finally, a full draft class to work with on top of the cap flexibility.
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Factors such as declining birth rates and families moving out of the city are contributing to declining enrollment at Denver Public Schools. In turn, it’s reshaping the district’s future.
“I think we’re in a good position, but it’s responsible for us to always be looking in the future and knowing we have to make some adjustments,” said Chuck Carpenter, the district’s CFO.
In a two-year span between this past school year and next, DPS expects a decline in enrollment of around 1,700 students.
“We haven’t really seen anything like this,” said Carpenter in response to the consistent decline.
Because of this trend, the district is facing a $28 million structural deficit over the next five years.
“We have a balanced budget now, and we’re not predicting that we’ll have an unbalanced budget in three years,” said Carpenter. “We’re saying we need to make adjustments over the next three, four years, so that our budgets are balanced.”
DPS’s Director of Campus Planning, Andrew Huber, told CBS Colorado in an interview last month that those adjustments will likely include closing down more schools.
“Additional school closures will be necessary in the upcoming years. When exactly that would be is hard to forecast right now,” said Huber.
The district’s CFO says his biggest takeaway from a recent round of closures is to make sure to give families options for what’s next.
“No one wants their school closed, but the second-best option isn’t going to be the same for every family,” said Carpenter.
This issue could be one Denver faces for years to come.
“We sort of say, how many kids are born here? Because in five years, those kids will be kindergartners,” Carpenter added.
The city’s birth rate peaked in 2005, meaning those babies have already graduated high school. And, according to the Colorado Department of Local Affairs, more young families move out of Denver and into surrounding counties than move into the city.
“I think school consolidation is very — I understand why people want to talk about it, but I think it’s more about, like, how do we make sure that the programs that are offered are rich programs,” said Carpenter.
Carpenter also says the district is closely monitoring some potential cuts to federal grants for students of poverty and language learners. He says those decisions will be made by October for the start of the new fiscal year, and cuts would have a “terrible” impact.
The Denver Broncos hosted eight tryout players at mandatory minicamp this week, including quarterback Sawyer Robertson. It sounds like the team has made decisions on those tryout players, and Robertson won’t be signed (at least not right now).
Instead, the Broncos are signing offensive lineman Reid Holskey (according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler) and cornerback Blake Cotton (according to the Denver Post‘s Parker Gabriel). Holskey (6-6, 306 pounds) spent time on the Houston Texans’ practice squad in 2025 before joining the New York Giants in January. He was cut by New York last month. Cotton (6-2, 195 pounds) is a rookie who spent last fall at Utah, totaling 30 tackles and seven pass breakups in 13 games.
The two moves came one day after Denver wrapped up minicamp. The 91-man offseason roster was already full, so the Broncos will need to make corresponding moves to make room for Holskey and Cotton on the roster.
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Sean Payton has seen enough. The Denver Broncos’ third practice of mandatory minicamp, which was set to happen on Thursday, has been canceled.
“Just schedule-wise, today will be our last day,” Payton said after Wednesday’s practice. “I just finished telling them that. It’s unusual because there’s a lot of packing, a little bit more than normal when you’re moving into another facility. So when we’re back here, we’ll be in the new building.”
The Broncos are moving into their new state-of-the-art facility, but the decision to cancel the final practice of the offseason was motivated primarily by what Payton has seen thus far and how the team is shaping up.
Thus concludes the Broncos’ offseason training program, which featured eight total practices as a team, four of which were open to the media. There was more on-field activity than that, including walkthrough practices unseen by the press, but in essence, we’re talking about eight sessions.
Some players have already begun to separate themselves in their respective competitions. Others have really popped, while some have failed to really stand out in any meaningful way.
By way of a Broncos stock report, let’s get to the biggest winners and losers of mandatory minicamp.
Winner: Bo Nix | QB
Nix finally returned to the practice field on Tuesday, the first day of minicamp. He was limited to individual drills only, but it was still great to see him out there.
On Day 2, though, Nix took another big step forward, participating in a 7-on-7 drill that included a highlight-reel touchdown pass to RJ Harvey. Just getting Nix back on the field was a big win for the Broncos, but seeing him progress over two days and look overall very sharp was more than a little encouraging.
Winner: Jaylen Waddle | WR
Waddle has been a lightning rod since the practices were opened to the media. He just looks different. That speed and explosiveness really add an element to the Broncos’ offense that has been lacking.
It’s been palpable. But arguably just as exciting is what Waddle’s teammates and coaches have been saying about him. Payton has called him a “force multiplier,” which is another way of saying that he makes everyone around him better.
Not that we really had reason to doubt it, but Waddle has been as advertised thus far, and then some.
Loser: Marvin Mims Jr. | WR
Mims is not listed as a loser because of any specific negative plays, like a dropped pass or a mental miscue. It’s just that, with other receivers, including Waddle, shining, generating buzz, and earning plaudits from Payton, Mims didn’t really.
Mims is a similar receiver type as Waddle, but the newcomer made it clear how much separation exists between them in practice. Now, Mims is still important to the Broncos, especially as a returner, and Payton did compliment his clutch gene and contributions in big games, but you have to wonder how he fits into the game plan on offense. That question still hasn’t been answered.
Winner: J.K. Dobbins | RB
Dobbins was his usually talkative self at minicamp, but the fact that he was healthy and out there doing his thing is a major win for the Broncos. It’s good to have him part of the daily process at Broncos HQ again because he’s one of those veterans that takes players under his wing, and elevates them.
Winner: Que Robinson | OLB
With the recent off-the-field drama the Broncos have dealt with, some extra attention was paid to the Broncos’ outside linebackers. Robinson, in particular, separated himself during minicamp.
His get-off is something else, and he was dispruptive during the Broncos’ team periods. Vance Joseph has said he views Robinson as a “future starter.” Pending Cooper’s situation, the future could be now, though Elliss will also have something to say about that.
Robinson had one heck of an offseason. I’m really looking forward to his second year.
Loser: Jonathon Cooper | OLB
After being arrested twice in the span of a week, the Broncos excused Cooper from mandatory minicamp. It would seem the Broncos want to create some distance from Cooper until his legal troubles are resolved, one way or another.
It’s a shame, in more ways than one. Beyond what legal ramifications might await Cooper, he’s very likely to be suspended by the NFL, and the Broncos releasing him at some point is not outside the bounds of the plausible. It’s a good thing that rush linebacker room is stacked.
Winner: Matt Henningsen | DL
None of these winners has been quite as surprising as Henningsen. He made a huge play on Day 1 of minicamp, tipping a Sam Ehlinger pass and returning it to the house.
Henningsen followed that up with another disruptive Day 2. He’s gone from being an after thought in the Broncos’ defensive line conversation to establishing himself as a bona fide threat for the roster.
Loser: Jahdae Barron | CB
Like Mims, Barron wasn’t bad during the offseason; he just didn’t pop, really, in any way. He broke up one pass on Day 2 of minicamp, but beyond that, there wasn’t much to see.
It will be interesting to see how Barron performs in training camp. We know the Broncos have high expectations for him, and a role on defense, even if as a depth piece, will be created for him, but I was hoping to see more signs of a Year-2 leap by now.
Winner: Jonah Coleman | RB
Another as-advertised player. Coleman has proven he’s ready for the NFL, which was partly what attracted the Broncos to him in the draft.
Coleman stood out in a major way at minicamp and made it clear that the Broncos have more than just a J.K. Dobbins insurance policy on their hands. Coleman is a force to be reckoned with.
Winner: Tyler Onyedim | DL
Like Coleman the Broncos’ first pick in the 2026 draft has looked NFL-ready. The Broncos still haven’t signed Onyedim, but that didn’t stop him from participating in the offseason program, which is a good harbinger.
Rocking the No. 98 jersey, it’s easy to mistake Onyedim for the guy he was drafted to replace: John Franklin-Myers. That’s especially true when the rookie is out there making plays like JFM. Onyedim has earned praise from his teammates, including the All-Pro Zach Allen.
Winner: Evan Engram | TE
Engram looked very good in minicamp this week. He looked like a big, athletic, smooth, explosive receiver, which is what he’s been in the NFL.
Engram wasn’t really all those things in his first year with the Broncos, but I’m hopeful that Year 2 will be different for the two-time Pro Bowler. He’s had a good summer.
Winner: Troy Franklin | WR
Franklin seems like the obvious No. 3 receiver in the pecking order. That doesn’t mean he’ll get the No. 3 snaps on an exclusive basis, though.
As the Broncos’ No. 2 last year, Franklin wasn’t able to fully live up to that, although he took some big steps forward in his second year. As the No. 3, it’s more his natural spot and that should allow him to continue to thrive in the offense, especially with the connection he has with Bo Nix dating back to Oregon.
Winner: Sam Ehlinger | QB
Ehlinger had a great offseason. He looked way more comfortable and far sharper in the offense in what is his second go-around in Payton’s offense.
Ehlinger was sharp this summer, and if he can continue to build on the foundation he’s created, it could create some uncomfortable conversations at Broncos HQ.
Loser: Jarrett Stidham | QB
Stidham has been less noteworthy this summer, but that doesn’t mean he’s been bad. In comparison to Ehlinger, though, Stidham wasn’t as good, which is curious, considering his standing as the team’s primary backup since 2023.
If Ehlinger ends up leapfrogging Stidham, what do the Broncos do? They’re holding a competition for QB2, and they have to be prepared for the possibility of Ehlinger winning it, especially after his strong summer.
If Ehlinger forces this issue, Stidham could become expendable. Stidham is very unlikely to be a cut candidate because of his contract, but as a trade piece? There’s a reason the rumor mill has been active on the Stidham topic this offseason. It’s something to watch.
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