California
LA fires clobber California economy after recession | Opinion
Three days after immensely destructive and deadly wildfires broke out in and around Los Angeles, Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed a $322.3 billion state budget with a positive revenue forecast “based on an assumption of continued but slowing economic growth.”
The new 2025-26 budget is already outdated because the fires, which are still growing, will have a heavy impact on both the income and outgo sides of the budget, by reducing economic activity in Southern California and increasing pressure for fire suppression and recovery aid from Sacramento.
The fires struck as California’s economy was still recovering from the brief but sharp recession that hit the state five years ago when Newsom ordered shutdowns to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. About 3 million workers were idled, and recovery has been mediocre at best. California’s unemployment rate, 5.4% in November, the latest month for which data are available, was the second highest of any state, with more than a million unemployed workers.
A broader federal Bureau of Labor Statistics measure of unemployment or underemployment provides an even dimmer picture. The U-6 rate, as it’s dubbed, counts “total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.”
(Marginally attached workers are people who aren’t working or looking for work but who want a job and have looked for one in the last 12 months.)
California’s current U-6 rate is 10%, by far the highest of any state and more than twice the national rate. It’s even higher — 11.8% — in Los Angeles.
Beacon Economics, in an analysis of the latest data, says that employment growth in California has trailed the nation in recent years: “Since February 2020 (the start of the pandemic), total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.5% compared to a 4.6% increase nationally.”
“There are a mix of influences both driving and constraining the state’s job growth,” Justin Niakamal, Beacon’s research manager, commented. “On one hand, California is seeing comparatively high incomes, strong consumer demand, and high economic output, but our critical lack of housing supply has led to the state’s well-known labor force contraction, and that is most certainly holding back job growth.”
The wildfires are obviously one uncertain factor in how California’s economy fares over the next few years — but not the only one.
Newsom’s budget, without mentioning him by name, cites Donald Trump’s recapture of the White House as “the most immediate risk to the forecast,” listing Trump’s vows to impose tariffs on imported goods and deport undocumented immigrants.
“California would also be especially vulnerable to tariffs as the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland and the logistics industry that is concentrated in the Inland Empire are highly dependent on foreign trade,” the budget declares, adding, “To the extent that existing workers are deported and potential new workers banned or discouraged from immigrating, many sectors of the U.S. and California economies could face labor shortages, leading to price increases in the goods and services produced by these sectors.”
However, even if the fires had not occurred and Trump not been elected, the state would still face a declining labor force, as a new report from the Public Policy Institute of California notes.
“In the last two decades, the share of the population participating in the labor force has fallen five percentage points (from 67% to 62% today) due to the aging of California’s population,” PPIC analyst Sarah Bohn writes. “As the population continues to age and the state faces a shrinking workforce, preparing Californians who can and want to work will become more essential.
“California’s current economic realities reflect the volatile macroeconomic conditions we’ve weathered since the pandemic as well as long-term challenges that have been brewing for decades,” she continues.
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California
Bold shapes and binoculars: Frank Gehry’s stunning California architecture
In Frank Gehry’s world, no building was left untilted, unexposed or untouched by unconventional material. The Canadian-American architect, who died in his Los Angeles home at 96, designed a career around defying what was predictable and pulling in materials that were uncommon and, as such, relatively inexpensive.
Gehry collaborated with artists to turn giant binoculars into an entryway of a commercial campus, and paid homage to a writer’s past as a lifeguard by creating a livable lifeguard tower. And while dreaming this up, he transformed American architecture along the way.
Below, take a look at how his work wrapped around and shaped the neighborhoods and urban centers of California.
Walt Disney Concert Hall
With its stainless steel waves rolling on a corner of Downtown Los Angeles, the Walt Disney Concert Hall has become an integral part of this urban center. Lillian Disney gifted the hall to the city and to pay tribute to her late husband’s commitment to the arts. Gehry built the music hall from the inside out, designing it around how music was to be heard within its walls with a team of acousticians.
While the hall’s exterior has free-forming waves and Gehry’s touch of unconventional geometry, the interior is surprisingly symmetrical – an intentional contrast. “The reason I made Disney Hall symmetrical was because I knew that I was a very suspect architect for a building like that by the general public,” Gehry told the Getty. “Everybody is going to think I’m going to do a Thing. So I decided to give them a comfort zone.”
Gehry house
Gehry pruned this Dutch colonial bungalow in Santa Monica down to its original wooden bones and, in 1978, built around it intricate layers of glass, exposed plywood, corrugated metal, and chain-link fencing. The home is considered one of his earliest works of deconstructivist architecture, with large tilting windows that allow the outside world to peer into the home’s internal, seemingly unfinished structure. Gehry continued to add to this residence until 1992.
Binoculars Building
First commissioned as a commercial office building in Venice for advertising agency Chiat/Day, this bold design has become one of Gehry’s most recognizable works in Los Angeles, thanks to its towering entryway that looks exactly like what it is: a giant pair of binoculars. This 44-foot feature was actually designed and created by his collaborators, artists Claes Oldenburg and Coosje van Bruggen. Gehry designed the 79,000 sq ft campus to have a tree-like metal canopy facade on the south of the binoculars, with a bright-white ship-like exterior to the north. Google has occupied the building since 2011, though it is currently on sale for the first time in 30 years for an undisclosed price.
Norton residence
When artists hire artists to design a home, places like the Norton residence pop into existence on Venice Beach’s famed Ocean Front Walk. Inspired by photos of his Santa Monica home, Lynn and William Norton, an artist and writer respectively, hired Gehry to bring this eclectic deconstructivist beachfront home to life in the 1980s. Gehry’s design plays with contrasting sizes of stucco and concrete boxes, heights and shapes, making chaos seem like a cohesive, colorful whole. At the forefront of the property is Gehry’s version of a lifeguard tower in the shape of a one-room studio standing on a single pillar, an apparent nod to William Norton’s former life as a lifeguard.
Loyola Marymount University Law School
Gehry was chosen to redesign the law school for Loyola Marymount University in 1979 because, unlike other architects who presented plans for a big building, Gehry proposed a collection of smaller buildings designed around a plaza. Robert Benson, a member of the committee who selected Gehry’s design, said the committee “squabbled” with the architect over his strange but signature choice of materials and angles, including sheet metal-wrapped Roman columns, chainlink fences or the peculiar angling of a building. Gehry won most of the squabbles, as Benson recalls it, and the result is a village-like complex of contemporary buildings, bold shapes, bright yellows and at least one oversized chainlink structure.
California
California gubernatorial candidates weigh in on juvenile justice during Bay Area event
Juvenile justice was one of the hot topics discussed Friday as six candidates for California governor gathered in the South Bay.
During the meeting of the California State Association of Counties, most gubernatorial candidates agreed that the current way of approaching juvenile crime might need a revisit.
The discussion came on the heels of a shooting at Valley Fair mall in the South Bay. Investigators claim the suspected gunman, a 17-year-old who was already on probation for a gun crime, opened fire on a perceived gang rival in the crowded mall on Black Friday. The crime and the teen suspect have since fueled an ongoing debate over California laws regarding teen offenders.
Here’s some of what three of the gubernational candidates had to say on the matter.
Steve Hilton: “On crime, we gotta challenge the ideology that has been pushed for so long: criminal justice reform, decarceration, not holding people accountable. That’s the disaster.”
Xavier Becerra: “We absolutely have to revisit anything that allows kids to be killed by kids.”
Katie Porter: “I think one of the lessons that the data probably shows about juvenile justice is when you allow the problem to continue, the interventions then don’t work.”
Both Becerra and Porter also noted that while they believe reform is needed, they don’t believe an “incarcerate them all” attitude is the answer.
NBC Bay Area was unable to speak about the issue with the other three candidates who attended the event.
California
Key California laws taking effect in 2026
A raft of new legislation is set to take effect for Californians in 2026 after Governor Gavin Newsom signed hundreds of bills over the past year.
The new legislation affects a wide range of issues, such as reducing drug costs, increasing the minimum wage and possibly barring police officers and federal agents from wearing face masks.
Why It Matters
Many of the measures reflect the state’s ongoing push to address affordability, equity and transparency—often amid tension with President Donald Trump’s White House.
The changes directly affect millions of residents, employers, landlords, students and consumers in the nation’s most populous state, serving as a bellwether for legislative trends nationwide.
What To Know
Here is a breakdown of some of the key laws set to go into effect in California in 2026:
- Minimum wage increase
The minimum wage is set to increase across the state from $16.50 to $16.90 per hour for all employees.
Several local municipalities are also increasing their minimum wages further, as they are allowed to set wages higher than the state minimum.
- Reduction to drug costs
From January 1, Senate Bill 40 would require large state-regulated health insurers to cap insulin co-pays at $35 for a 30-day supply. The same requirement takes effect for smaller plans in 2027.
Californians would also have access to low-cost, state-branded CalRx insulin, priced at $55 for five pens.
- Gender-neutral restrooms in schools
Starting July 1, every California public school must provide at least one gender-neutral restroom, as mandated by SB 760.
- Police identification and mask ban
From January 1, local and federal law enforcement officers would generally be barred from wearing masks to conceal their identities and must display visible identification when performing enforcement duties.
These measures, codified in SB 627 and SB 805, are facing legal challenges from federal entities.
Tricia McLaughlin, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson, said the department would not comply with the law.
- Ban on cat declawing
Declawing cats for nonmedical reasons is set to be prohibited statewide. The practice is widely condemned as inhumane by animal welfare advocates.
- Combating auto scams
Consumers who buy or lease a new or used car from a dealer would have the right to return it for a full refund within three days of purchase. California is set to become the first state in the nation to offer the protection.
- Single-use plastic bag ban
From January 1, major changes to the state’s plastics policy go into effect, banning all plastic carryout bags—even thicker varieties previously permitted. Stores would only be allowed to distribute recycled paper bags, subject to a minimum charge.
- AI transparency and protections
AI operators must clearly disclose when chatbots are not real people, and companies must implement safeguards to prevent chatbots from encouraging self-harm in minors.
Additional AI regulations are set to increase transparency, ban chatbots from impersonating health care professionals and require new police reporting on AI use.
- Required appliances in rentals
Landlords would be legally required to provide working refrigerators and stoves in rental apartments from January 1.
- Extended window for sexual assault lawsuits
A new law, AB 250, creates a two-year window—from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027—for adult survivors of sexual assaults to file lawsuits alleging a cover-up. It would allow these individuals to file cases even if the usual statute of limitations lapsed.
What People Are Saying
California Governor Gavin Newsom said in October regarding the legislation on drug costs: “I am pleased to sign SB 41, a bill that will lower health care costs for all Californians. This bill, together with related efforts in the 2025 budget and CalRx, represents the most aggressive effort in the country to lower prescription drug costs. California continues to lead the way in lowering costs, increasing transparency, and ensuring that the savings are passed on to payers and consumers.”
He wrote in a letter in September regarding the ban on officers wearing masks: “Acting on behalf of an authoritarian President, federal immigration authorities are spreading fear and terror throughout California with indiscriminate raids that have rounded up American citizens, people legally in the United States, working parents, and even children.
“America should never be a country where masked ‘secret police’ grab people off the streets and throw them into unmarked vans and speed away. It is unacceptable that government agents, guns in hand, have seized our neighbors while wearing masks under the pretense of protecting themselves when they are, in fact, hiding from public accountability and sowing fear to intimidate the American people.
“For the safety of both the public and law enforcement, Californians must know they are interacting with legitimate law enforcement officers, rather than masked vigilantes.”
Attorney General Pam Bondi said in November in response to the measure: “Law enforcement officers risk their lives every day to keep Americans safe, and they do not deserve to be doxed or harassed simply for carrying out their duties. California’s anti-law enforcement policies discriminate against the federal government and are designed to create risk for our agents. These laws cannot stand.”
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