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How Trump has an edge in California GOP primary after state rule change

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How Trump has an edge in California GOP primary after state rule change


The California GOP altered its rules for allocating delegates in the state’s presidential primary, a move that could give former President Donald Trump a significant edge over his opponents in the 2024 election.

Trump is the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination. RealClearPolitics puts the former president at an average of 52.4%, an almost 40-point margin ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Trump is close to 50% ahead of candidates like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), among others.

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES TEST HOW FAR THEY CAN GO IN CRITICIZING TRUMP

In California, a predominately Democratic state, the Republican Party has looked to secure a tighter red stronghold, aiming to flip Congressional seats and elect a viable GOP candidate for the presidency.

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Now, with the GOP changing its delegate rules, California Republicans could be opening the door for Trump and potentially discouraging other GOP primary candidates from campaigning in the state.

What is the new GOP delegate rule?

On Saturday, the California Republican Party’s 100-member executive committee changed the way delegates are allocated in a 52-16 vote.

Now, if a Republican candidate wins over 50% of the vote in the primary on March 5, they will receive all 169 delegates from the state — more delegates than any state in the nation.

If no one reaches this threshold, then the delegates will be split up among candidates proportional to the statewide vote.

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State GOP leaders argue this will attract candidates to compete in California.

“Today’s vote … was a massive victory for California Republicans who are eager to have a say in deciding who our Party’s 2024 presidential nominee will be,” state party Chair Jessica Millan Patterson said in a statement via Los Angeles Times. “Republican presidential candidates will not only be encouraged to spend real time campaigning in our state and making their case to voters, but Republican voters will equally be encouraged to turn out to support their chosen candidate to help them win delegates.”

If the GOP did not change the rules, the party would have lost half of its delegates to the Republican National Convention for not meeting delegate criteria.

Many state Republican parties had made similar changes to their primary rules ahead of the 2020 election, adding more winner-take-all contests and requiring a higher percentage of the vote to win delegates.

Why are some Republicans against this rule change?

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The original system, which has been in place for two decades, allocated three delegates for each congressional district won. The system allowed a candidate to strategically campaign in a handful of areas in California instead of targeting the entire state.

Former state GOP executive director Jon Fleischman, who served in 2000 when the original system was adopted, said in an interview with the LA Times that the new rule would prevent this type of competition among candidates.

Fleischman said no GOP presidential candidate would be incentivized to come to California and campaign.

“The cost to advertise statewide is too great, and the impact of trying to motivate volunteers is too small,” Fleischman said. “So they will go to other states and ignore California in the primary, as they ignore California in the general election.”

Some Republican protesters have argued the decision should have been discussed with the over 1,400 party members at the fall convention, not just the executive committee. State GOP officials said that they were on a deadline to submit their new rules to the RNC to maintain the allotment of delegates.

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Where do the top candidates stand on this rule change?

Trump’s team is in full support of the California GOP’s rule change while DeSantis’s team has blasted the state’s Republicans for ignoring voters who want a different GOP candidate in the 2024 general election.

An executive committee member told the Los Angeles Times that they spoke to Trump’s campaign and they supported the rule change, saying polling shows he can win more than 50% of primary voters in California.

Ken Cuccinelli, founder of the pro-DeSantis Never Back Down super PAC, blasted the state GOP’s decision to ignore a different proposal that could have favored the Florida governor.

Under that proposal, three delegates would have been awarded by congressional district, with two going to the winner in each district and the third going to the second-place finisher. With DeSantis maintaining a steady runner-up status in most polls, this method would have likely benefited him come primary time in March.

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CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

“Smoke-filled back rooms do not reflect the will of or benefit voters in any state. Yet across the country, games are afoot to enhance the potential outcome of primary elections for one former president who half of the Republican electorate no longer wants as the party leader,” Cuccinelli said in a statement.

But “even with these asinine primary rules changes,” Cuccinelli added, “we remain confident Governor DeSantis will become the Republican nominee and 47th president of the United States.”





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California

18% of California student loans are delinquent

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18% of California student loans are delinquent


Despite the financial stress of Golden State life, Californians are relatively good at paying bills compared with the rest of the nation.

Take student loans. In the first quarter of 2025, 18% of California student loans were late.

That may seem like a stunningly high rate of skipped payments, but it’s the 10th lowest delinquency rate among the states and the District of Columbia. And across the nation, 23% of student loans were delinquent.

That’s what was found by my trusty spreadsheet’s review of bill-payment data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The research, from 2003 to the first quarter of 2025, examines debt levels and payments drawn from individuals with credit histories.

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The latest report was the first since student-loan repayment reprieves ended. That means late payments on many educational loans were once again being reported to credit bureaus. This provides a window into the scope of this education-linked financial challenge.

Student loans are roughly 5% of all California debts. These borrowings equal $4,660 per capita of the $87,620 total consumer borrowings statewide.

Nationally, it’s a bigger hurdle: student loans run $5,470 per capita – or 9% of Americans’ $62,490 per capita debts.

The ability to pay varies wildly. Mississippi was the worst at student-loan repayment, with 45% of these debts in arrears, followed by Alabama, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, all at 34%.

The best at making payments lived in Illinois and Massachusetts, with 14% delinquency, followed by Connecticut, Virginia and New Hampshire were next at 15%.

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Bigger picture

To start 2025, only 1.9% of all California consumer debts were 90 days or more past due.

Yes, skipped bills increased from 1.6% at year-end 2024.  And it’s California’s highest level of tardy bills since the second quarter of 2020, when coronavirus lockdowns severely impacted the economy.

However, this level of delinquency is significantly lower than the 3.6% average lateness since 2003.

Nationally, 2.9% of bills were late in the first quarter, up from 1.9% at year’s end. Like California, the rate is still historically low. American tardiness has averaged 3.8% during the last 22 years.

California’s economy also has its challenges. Job creation has slowed to a crawl. The state remains unaffordable for the masses. The Trump administration’s “America First” thinking collides with California’s globally oriented business climate. Consumer confidence is also down.

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That monetary angst can be found in the slowdown in Californians taking on new debts.

In the first quarter, total borrowings increased at an annual rate of only 0.8%. That’s well below the 3.3% growth pace since 2003.

It’s a similar picture across the nation. Borrowings are up 1% in a year vs. a 3.3% average growth.

Home sweet home

The New York Fed tells us Californians are getting better with home loans, which are 81% of all consumer debts statewide.

Just 0.56% of mortgage balances were 90 days or more late to start 2025. That’s down from 0.58% at year’s end. Although we’ll note that the late mortgage level in the fourth quarter of 2024 was the highest since the second quarter of 2020.

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And lateness is historically low – below the average 2.8% late home loans since 2003.

Equally noteworthy is that California’s improvement rate comes as more Americans fail to make timely payments on mortgages, which are 70% of all U.S. consumer debts.

In the first quarter, 0.9% of U.S. home loans were late – the worst payment pace in five years. That’s up from 0.6% at year’s end, but this is still comfortably below the 2.6% historical norm.

There is a rising level of deeply troubled homeowners.

California had 15 new foreclosures per 1,000 consumers in the first quarter. That’s the highest since the first quarter of 2020 and up from 12 at year’s end. But to be fair, it’s also nowhere near the 88 per 1,000 average since 2003.

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Same story nationally with 21 U.S. foreclosure starts per 1,000 consumers – up from 14 at year’s end but off the 70 historic pace.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com



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This Northern California city is the top U.S. destination among homebuyers looking to relocate

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This Northern California city is the top U.S. destination among homebuyers looking to relocate


A “For Sale” sign in front of a home in Sacramento, California, US, on Monday, July 3, 2023. The Mortgage Bankers Association is scheduled to release mortgage applications figures on July 6. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

New figures show that nationwide, Sacramento was the most searched-for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate, while San Francisco was home to one of the top cities that homebuyers were looking to leave.

Migration trends identified by residential real estate brokerage Redfin also showed that California was the top state homebuyers searched to leave. 

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The top states people searched to relocate to included Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.

The analysis covered the period from February to April of this year and was based on a sample of some 2 million Redfin users who searched for homes across more than 100 major U.S. metro areas, the company said. Those included in the dataset viewed at least 10 homes for sale in a three-month period. 

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Year-over-year declines

Redfin’s latest figures also show a year-over-year decline in home prices in six of the nine Bay Area counties.

By the numbers:

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Alameda County saw the biggest drop of 4.3% with a median home price of $1,167,500.

Contra Costa County saw a similar decline at 4.2%, though its median home price was much lower at $829,000.

Solano (-1.6%), Napa (-1.1%), San Mateo (-0.89%), and Marin (-0.4%) counties also saw year-over-year declines, though there were large differences in their median prices.

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Solano County had a median of $575,500. 

Napa County’s median was $920,000.

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San Mateo County had a median of $1,665,000.

Marin County’s median was $1,543,750.

Year-over-year increases

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San Francisco saw the Bay Area’s biggest increase from a year ago at 3.9%, with a median of $1,455,000.

Santa Clara County’s increase was 3.6%. The county also had the highest median home price in the Bay Area at $1,750,000.

Compare that with Sonoma County, with the lowest median in the Bay Area of $828,353. The county saw an increase of 1.4% last month from a year ago.

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Dig deeper:

Other notable findings showed that Sunnyvale was the city with the fastest growing sales price in all of California, with home prices up almost 30% compared to last year.

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Sunnyvale’s median price was $2.3 million last month, according to Redfin.

Berkeley had the fourth-fastest sales growth, up almost 20%, putting the median at almost $1.6 million.

Danville also made the top 10 list of California metros that saw a jump in sales prices. 

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In seventh place, the Contra Costa County city had a 15% spike in the sale price compared to last year. It also saw a nearly 15% decline in the number of homes sold. 

Danville’s median price was $2.3 million.

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Bay Area cities identified as ‘most competitive’  

The Bay Area took every slot in Redfin’s list of top 10 “most competitive” cities in the state.

SEE ALSO: Homebuyers need to make more than $400K in this Bay Area region to afford the ‘typical’ home, analysis finds

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The real estate company compiled its list based on the most homes that received multiple offers, often with waived contingencies. Redfin then scored the cities on a 0 to 100 scale. 

The metros deemed “most competitive” fell in the 90-100 range.

Top 10 Most Competitive Cities in California

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1. Santa Clara
2. Sunnyvale
3. Alameda
4. Daly City 
5. Livermore
6. Mountain View
7. Berkeley
8. Danville 
9. Castro Valley 
10. San Ramon

(Source: Redfin)

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Real EstateSan FranciscoSacramento CountyNewsInstanewsSunnyvaleBerkeleyDanville



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‘More than we can bear’: Missing California student found dead in Big Bear Lake

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‘More than we can bear’: Missing California student found dead in Big Bear Lake


A Southern California college student who went missing in a popular mountain town over the weekend has been found dead in Big Bear Lake.

Tanner Prentiss, 22, was last seen on May 17 at around 12:30 a.m. in Big Bear Lake, California, according to the city’s sheriff station. Search crews located his body in the water Monday shortly before 10:30 a.m. near the city’s Pine Knot Marina.

CBS News reported that deputies searching the lake from a helicopter spotted Prentiss’ body, which was then recovered by a dive team. Deputies are investigating how Prentiss ended up in the water, the outlet reported.

No foul play is suspected and his cause of death is under investigation by the coroner’s office, the Big Bear Sheriff Station confirmed on Facebook.

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The University of California at Santa Barbara student visited the lake with a group of friends, who reported him missing after he failed to return to their rental cabin, according to local stations KTLA and KABC.

“Our thoughts and prayers go out to Tanner’s family, friends and all those who are affected by his loss. The family is requesting privacy as they navigate through this tragic incident,” the sheriff station wrote.

‘This loss is more than we can bear’

Prentiss’ grandmother, Marilyn Taylor, wrote on Facebook that her family is devastated by Tanner’s passing and thanked everyone who supported their family during this time.

“Tanner was the funny guy, always smiling, tons of friends, charismatic, responsible and a really good person. This loss is more than we can bear at this time,” she wrote.

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In a statement, UC Santa Barbara called Tanner’s death “heartbreaking” for the entire university community and expressed condolences to his friends and families.

“We understand the impact and stress surrounding this tragedy and are committed to supporting our campus community who may be impacted,” the school said in a statement shared with USA TODAY. “Our campus offers resources to students, staff, and faculty who are in need of support.”



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