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Dow Jones stock index crosses 40,000: Good or bad for California?

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Dow Jones stock index crosses 40,000: Good or bad for California?


The stock market’s venerable yardstick, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just made history – crossing 40,000 for the first time.

Yes, this milestone set Thursday, May 16, is only a brief emotional victory for shareholders. Yet it can be seen as a historical milepost for the broader business climate, especially in California.

To honor the moment, the trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Dow’s 5,000-point markers and how California fared in those periods using an economic metric (California unemployment), an interest rate (the average 30-year fixed mortgage), and home prices from the California Association of Realtors.

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As we begin our data-filled voyage, let’s note the Dow first crossed 5,000 in November 1995 — back when you could buy the median-priced California single-family home for $176,000.

5,000-point mileposts

Dow passes 10,000 in December 1999: It took the stock index just over four years to double from 5,000 compared with a 28% gain for California homes to $225,000 in the same timeframe. This was an era when the economy broke loose from its early 1990s slumber. California unemployment dipped between 1995 and 1999 to 5% from 7.9% while mortgage rates rose to 7.9% from 7.4%.

15,000 in May 2013: The Dow needed more than 13 years to gain 50% to hit this benchmark vs. an 85% surge for homes statewide to $417,000 in the same period. This extended gap came during the financial rollercoaster ride from the bubble period in the early 2000s bursting into a Great Recession and then the economy’s slow recovery. So, California unemployment was 9.2%, up from 5% at the beginning of this crazy period. Yet, cheap money was one salve: 3.5% mortgages vs. 7.9% in 1999.

20,000 in January 2017: The Dow took under four years to gain 33% to gain the next 5,000 while homes statewide gained 18% to $492,000 as the post-crash rebound continued. California unemployment fell to 5.2% from 9.2%  as mortgage rates ticked up to 4.2% from 3.5% in 2013.

25,000 in January 2018: The Dow needed just one year to gain 25% for its next benchmark vs. a 7% gain for California homes to $528,000 as the recovery hit full stride. California unemployment dipped to 4.4% from 5.2% while mortgage rates slipped to 4% from 4.2% in 2017.

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30,000 in November 2020: The index took just under three years to gain 20% vs. 32% for California homes to $699,000 in the middle of the pandemic’s business wild gyrations. California unemployment surged to 9% from 4.4%  – but investors cheered historically cheap money such as mortgages hitting 2.8%, falling from 4% in 2018.

35,000 in July 2021: It took the Dow less than a year to gain 17% vs. 16% appreciation for California homes to $811,000 as the pandemic’s economic surge was in full force. Statewide unemployment fell to 7.4% from 9% and mortgages remained cheap – 2.9% vs. 2.8% in 2020.

40,000 in May 2024: The Dow took almost three years to gain 14% vs. an 11% gain for California homes to a record $904,000 in April. The economy struggles to find its new normal as statewide unemployment fell to 5.3% in April from 7.4%. But mortgages got expensive as the Federal Reserve fought and overheated economy – 7% in April from 2.9% in 2021.

Bottom line

So, the Dow is up eight-fold since crossing 5,000 just over 28 years ago. California homes are only five times more expensive.

That’s not the point, though. This stroll down memory lane reminds us that the markets typically need a solid economy for stocks or homes to appreciate. Cheap money is the icing on the cake.

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Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

 



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With progressive ballot measures on track to fail, California's political identity is questioned

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With progressive ballot measures on track to fail, California's political identity is questioned


There was no surprise on election night when a solid majority of California voters selected Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris over former President Trump. But the outcomes of a list of ballot measures told a more complicated story of a state known for its liberal bent.

Voters overwhelmingly supported a measure to undo a decade of progressive criminal justice reform, and preliminary poll results showed they were poised to reject measures that would increase the minimum wage and ban forced prison labor.

Proposition 6 — which would ban “involuntary servitude” as punishment for a crime — lacked majority support in deep-blue California on Wednesday even as supporters promoted it as a way to end what they call modern-day slavery. A similar measure was on track to pass in Nevada.

California voters also rejected a measure that would have made it easier for cities to impose rent control and pass local bond measures for affordable housing.

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Some progressive voters in the state, where Democrats control the governor’s office and Legislature, were dumbfounded by the early results, while Republicans seized on the moment as proof that California is becoming more conservative.

“It’s a new day in California,” Assembly Republican leader James Gallagher of Yuba City said in a social media post about the election results. “The shift is beginning.”

But longtime California election watchers were more tempered about what the outcome of the ballot measures say about the state’s political leanings.

Mark Baldassare, survey director for the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank that conducts polling, said confusing initiative descriptions can deter voters from supporting initiatives even if they actually agree with their intent — especially in a state that is accustomed to seeing a slew of wonky questions on their ballot each year on issues from kidney dialysis to condoms.

“Propositions are a part of the ballot where you don’t have Ds and Rs, you have yeses and nos,” Baldassare said. “The electorate looks at this on an issue-by-issue basis. I don’t feel like it’s necessarily an indicator that it’s a shift to the right. I think that the default for the voter is always ‘no.’ ”

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Californians have defied the state’s liberal reputation when voting on ballot measures before. They have twice rejected ballot measures to abolish the death penalty in the past; and in 2008 they passed Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage. (On Tuesday, Californians passed a measure that stripped the last vestiges of Proposition 8 from the California Constitution, reaffirming gay marriage, which remains a federal right.)

Campaign messaging goes a long way for ballot measures, Baldassare said, and voters often weigh their decisions partly based on who is listed as supporters and opponents alongside the question on the ballot. Sometimes, it gets complicated.

In the case of Proposition 33, which was endorsed by the California Democratic Party and would have repealed a law that bars local governments from regulating rent on some buildings, even rent control proponents fed up with the cost of living voiced concerns about unintended impacts of the measure.

Millions were spent for and against Proposition 33, with opponents warning it could make California’s housing shortage worse. A proposition coined as a “revenge measure” was added to the ballot, targeting how a healthcare foundation that is a prime proponent of rent control measures could spend their revenue.

Proposition 6 proponents chalked up its likely failure not to voters’ support for “slavery” but to growing concerns about public safety and how those worries could impact any policy measure related to prison reform. In addition to approving Proposition 36, which cracks down on criminal sentencing for theft and fentanyl crimes, voters also ousted progressive-leaning prosecutors in L.A. County and the Bay Area.

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Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor who is running for governor in 2026 and is expected to position himself as a moderate among a crowded field of Democrats, was reluctant to speculate about what ballot measure results mean before all of them are called. But he said he believes voters want a “course correction” on issues like crime and the economy.

As the Democratic Party nationally grapples with a potential Republican trifecta — winning control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives — and what it means for its movement and the future of the nation, California politicians also need to take a pulse check, he said.

“Are we really listening to people or are we spending all of our time telling them what they ought to do?” Villaraigosa said.

But many California Democrats were undeterred by the ballot measure results, again gearing up to lead the resistance against Trump. They pointed to the approval of progressive-backed causes such as a historic climate change bond and a measure to extend a tax to fund Medi-Cal as proof California remains a liberal bastion in a sea of red.

Assemblymember Alex Lee (D-San José), chair of the California Progressive Legislative Caucus, said that he’s disappointed by some of the ballot measure results but that “all the corporate and conservative special-interest money” spent on the complex initiatives should be considered before making judgments about the state’s electorate.

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“On the whole, California is still more progressive than a country where just over half of the voters voted for a fascist,” Lee said just hours after Trump was elected to return to the White House.



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Ventura County fire: California homes engulfed by flames

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Ventura County fire: California homes engulfed by flames


A wildfire fanned by winds of up to 80mph (130km/h) is burning out of control in California’s Ventura County.

The fire was first reported near Moorpark, 40 miles northwest of Los Angeles, early on Wednesday.

Within hours it had reached a suburb of Camarillo, a city of 70,000 people around 10 miles away.

Thousands of residents have been forced to flee and several have been reported injured.

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Ventura County Fire Chief Dustin Gardner said that the fire was moving “dangerously fast” and destroying everything in its path.

“Bushes are burning, grass is burning, hedgerows are burning, agricultural fields are burning, and structures are burning,” he said.



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California DA Pamela Price recalled over 'progressive leftist' crime policies

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California DA Pamela Price recalled over 'progressive leftist' crime policies


Alameda County, California, District Attorney Pamela Price was recalled early Wednesday, less than two years after taking office, following backlash for her alleged soft-on-crime approach.

The effort was backed by the recall committee Save Alameda for Everyone (SAFE), and passed with 64.8% of the vote, according to polling results from the county of Alameda. The committee includes former Alameda County prosecutors, county residents, community activists, and crime victims and victims’ families, according to the committee’s website. 

“It’s been a long, hard 18 months, and we’re hoping to see it turn around for all of the victims,” Brenda Grisham, principal officer for SAFE, told Fox News Digital. “And we’re not just talking about laws that are out there, but she came into office and implemented her own laws, and they were just not conducive and safe for the citizens of Alameda County.”

ALAMEDA COUNTY DA PAMELA PRICE FACING RECALL AS SPECIAL ELECTION LOOMS: THE ‘PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN’

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District Attorney Pamela Price was recalled Wednesday. (Lea Suzuki/The San Francisco Chronicle)

“They spoke their mind yesterday, and I’m so excited,” Grisham said. 

“We are thankful to the voters of Oakland for recalling Sheng Thao and to Alameda County for recalling Pamela Price,” Oakland Police Officers Association President Huy Nguyen said in a statement. “Voters recognized their progressive leftist policies directly harmed and impacted residents, neighborhoods, working and middle class families, and small businesses.”

The group filed the necessary paperwork to begin fundraising for the effort in July 2023. The recall effort had acquired nearly 75,000 validated signatures by May of this year, according to the New York Post. 

The Alameda County Board of Supervisors set a recall election date of Nov. 5 in May. 

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Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao was also ousted from office after her recall effort passed with 65% of the vote.

NATHAN HOCHMAN OUSTS EMBATTLED LIBERAL PROSECUTOR GEORGE GASCÓN AS LA COUNTY DA AMID CRIME CONCERNS

Several Alameda County families had spoken out against Price in the months leading up to her recall vote. 

Florance McCrary, whose 22-year-old son was shot and killed by a stray bullet in 2016, became a vocal advocate in calling for Price’s removal after she abruptly dropped the murder charge of her son’s alleged killer last year. 

“I was in total shock,” McCrary told Fox and Friends co-host Pete Hegseth. “It was unbelievable to realize that for the fight that took over six years to get to that, it was diminished to nothing. And while sitting there in court, learning even from the judge, well, this is the best we can do.”

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Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price speaks at press conference

Several Alameda County families had spoken out against District Attorney Pamela Price in the months leading up to her recall vote. (Jane Tyska/Digital First Media/East Bay Times)

“There are still so many more ballots to be counted, and in areas that I know we did well in getting our message out,” Price said in a statement released. “The Registrar of Voters estimates that it still has hundreds of thousands of ballots to count. The next update will be issued later this week. I am optimistic that when all the votes are counted, we will be able to continue the hard work of transforming our criminal justice system.”

California Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell also came out in support of the recall vote, holding a press conference in October where he argued Price had failed victims of violent crime, according to KTVU. 

PROPOSITION 36 OVERWHELMINGLY PASSES IN CALIFORNIA, REVERSING SOME SOROS-BACKED SOFT-ON-CRIME POLICIES

“The cops catch, and Price releases,” Swalwell said. 

Swalwell also reportedly filed a defamatory claim against Price this week, claiming Price had made defamatory statements at a news conference a few weeks prior wherein she said that Swalwell wanted to recall her to “shield himself from unethical practices” that occurred while he was serving as a deputy district attorney, according to KTVU. 

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Representative Eric Swalwell at Fox News Studio

California Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell came out in support of the recall vote, arguing that Price had failed victims of violent crime, according to KTVU. (John Lamparski/Getty Images)

“Pamela Price leaves me no choice but to file this claim against her for her deliberate and untrue statements,” Swalwell said in a statement to the outlet. 

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Fox News Digital reached out to Swalwell’s office for additional comment. 

Fox News Digital’s Bailee Hill contributed to this report. 

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