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Dow Jones stock index crosses 40,000: Good or bad for California?

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Dow Jones stock index crosses 40,000: Good or bad for California?


The stock market’s venerable yardstick, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just made history – crossing 40,000 for the first time.

Yes, this milestone set Thursday, May 16, is only a brief emotional victory for shareholders. Yet it can be seen as a historical milepost for the broader business climate, especially in California.

To honor the moment, the trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Dow’s 5,000-point markers and how California fared in those periods using an economic metric (California unemployment), an interest rate (the average 30-year fixed mortgage), and home prices from the California Association of Realtors.

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As we begin our data-filled voyage, let’s note the Dow first crossed 5,000 in November 1995 — back when you could buy the median-priced California single-family home for $176,000.

5,000-point mileposts

Dow passes 10,000 in December 1999: It took the stock index just over four years to double from 5,000 compared with a 28% gain for California homes to $225,000 in the same timeframe. This was an era when the economy broke loose from its early 1990s slumber. California unemployment dipped between 1995 and 1999 to 5% from 7.9% while mortgage rates rose to 7.9% from 7.4%.

15,000 in May 2013: The Dow needed more than 13 years to gain 50% to hit this benchmark vs. an 85% surge for homes statewide to $417,000 in the same period. This extended gap came during the financial rollercoaster ride from the bubble period in the early 2000s bursting into a Great Recession and then the economy’s slow recovery. So, California unemployment was 9.2%, up from 5% at the beginning of this crazy period. Yet, cheap money was one salve: 3.5% mortgages vs. 7.9% in 1999.

20,000 in January 2017: The Dow took under four years to gain 33% to gain the next 5,000 while homes statewide gained 18% to $492,000 as the post-crash rebound continued. California unemployment fell to 5.2% from 9.2%  as mortgage rates ticked up to 4.2% from 3.5% in 2013.

25,000 in January 2018: The Dow needed just one year to gain 25% for its next benchmark vs. a 7% gain for California homes to $528,000 as the recovery hit full stride. California unemployment dipped to 4.4% from 5.2% while mortgage rates slipped to 4% from 4.2% in 2017.

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30,000 in November 2020: The index took just under three years to gain 20% vs. 32% for California homes to $699,000 in the middle of the pandemic’s business wild gyrations. California unemployment surged to 9% from 4.4%  – but investors cheered historically cheap money such as mortgages hitting 2.8%, falling from 4% in 2018.

35,000 in July 2021: It took the Dow less than a year to gain 17% vs. 16% appreciation for California homes to $811,000 as the pandemic’s economic surge was in full force. Statewide unemployment fell to 7.4% from 9% and mortgages remained cheap – 2.9% vs. 2.8% in 2020.

40,000 in May 2024: The Dow took almost three years to gain 14% vs. an 11% gain for California homes to a record $904,000 in April. The economy struggles to find its new normal as statewide unemployment fell to 5.3% in April from 7.4%. But mortgages got expensive as the Federal Reserve fought and overheated economy – 7% in April from 2.9% in 2021.

Bottom line

So, the Dow is up eight-fold since crossing 5,000 just over 28 years ago. California homes are only five times more expensive.

That’s not the point, though. This stroll down memory lane reminds us that the markets typically need a solid economy for stocks or homes to appreciate. Cheap money is the icing on the cake.

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Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

 



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California’s race for governor and other key primaries remain unsettled as vote count continues

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California’s race for governor and other key primaries remain unsettled as vote count continues


California’s crowded, protracted gubernatorial primary is going to take a little more time to settle.

The race remained too early to call Wednesday morning with 50% of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News’ Decision Desk. Three main candidates — former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican, and two Democrats, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire activist Tom Steyer — are competing for two spots in the general election, with the candidate in fourth place, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, running well behind.

Hilton had 27% support in the all-party primary with about half of votes still left to count, while Becerra had 26% and Steyer had 20%. Bianco was the only other candidate in double digits, at 11%.

In California, all candidates run on the same primary ballot in the primary and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election.

It’s difficult to say when it will be clear which two candidates advance to the November general election, however, due to the state’s protracted vote counting.

And with millions of ballots left to count, other key races in California remain uncalled as well, including the second runoff spot to face Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass one on one in November, several House races that could help determine the majority next year, and more.

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In the governor’s race, all three candidates rallied supporters around the state as the evening drew on.

“We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good,” Hilton told allies. “It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction, a fresh start for our state, which is long overdue.”

But while Hilton was narrowly in first place when he spoke, Democratic candidates were capturing the majority of the votes.

Becerra looked back at his own “underdog story,” from his immigrant relatives to his bid for governor, which took some time to catch fire.

“Almost immediately, he’s counted out, an afterthought, overlooked by many, outspent by a ton, even called along the way to drop out and save us the trouble,” Becerra recounted to his supporters. “Well, guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up.”

Steyer struck a hopeful note in his election night speech despite a deficit in the vote count.

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“It might take some time to figure out where this is going, we’re going to wait till every ballot is counted, we’re going to give democracy a time to work, and we know we finished really strong,” Steyer said.

Major battleground districts

GOP Rep. David Valadao’s district has been one of Democrats’ top targets for years, but two Democrats are locked in a close race for the second spot in the November general election against the incumbent.

School board member Randy Villegas, who won support from national progressives, has a slight lead over state legislator Jasmeet Bains, 30% to 26%, with less than half of the expected vote tallied in the 22nd District. Valadao is comfortably in first place.

And in Northern California’s 6th District, Rep. Kevin Kiley — who was elected as a Republican and switched to become an independent this election cycle, as he runs in another newly redrawn district — is bunched up in a tight race that includes Democrat Richard Pan, a former state legislator, and Republican Michael Stansfield. Currently, Stansfield is running ahead of Pan; they spent much of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning trading the lead, which could have significant general election implications.

Meanwhile, outside California, Democrats think they might be able to challenge for one of Montana’s red-tinted congressional districts this fall, after Rep. Ryan Zinke decided to retire. But less than 2 percentage points separate Democrats Sam Forstag and Ryan Busse with more than 85% of the expected vote tallied in their primary in Montana’s 1st District.

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Read more about Tuesday’s House primaries here.

A safe seat battle to watch

Plenty of other House districts in California — and a few elsewhere — still have unsettled primaries, but one attracted particular attention due to how nasty the campaign got.

In Southern California, where two Republican incumbents are facing off in one district due to redistricting, Rep. Ken Calvert has advanced to the general election, but Rep. Young Kim is still battling for the second spot. She leads Democrat Esther Kim-Varet in the race for second, 22% to 16%, with about half of the vote in.

Who will face Bass in Los Angeles?

While Bass is projected to advance to a November runoff in Los Angeles, it’s not yet clear whether she’ll face Republican Spencer Pratt or Democrat Nithya Raman.

Bass has about 37% of the vote to 29% for Pratt and 21% for Raman so far, with approximately half of the expected vote tallied.

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Speaking to supporters on election night, Raman, a member of the Los Angeles City Council, said that “tonight may not give us a final answer on this race.”

“Many thousands of votes will be counted in the days ahead, and we may not get an answer we like, but regardless of what happens next, nobody, nobody can take away what all of us have built together,” she continued.

Pratt, meanwhile, was looking ahead to a potential matchup with Bass when he spoke to reporters.

“Now I have five months to get deep into every community that hasn’t heard my message to make them safe,” said Pratt, a former reality TV star. “So I’m actually very excited, because I felt very rushed. It’s a big city, and I was not able to talk to as many people as I look forward to talking to.”

Bass also projected optimism, telling her backers, “We got a lot more to go, but so far it’s looking good.”

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Midterm primaries 2026 live: results and reaction after six states including California and Iowa cast ballots

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Midterm primaries 2026 live: results and reaction after six states including California and Iowa cast ballots


Lucy Campbell

Millions of voters across the country are heading to the polls today in crucial primaries in a slew of key gubernatorial, Senate and House races.

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Here’s a quick rundown of what we’re watching:

California
Voters are casting ballots on who should lead the nation’s most populous state (and the world’s fourth largest economy), where there is no clear leader among candidates vying to advance in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic governor Gavin Newsom. The race for Los Angeles mayor is also on the ballot, along with a series of high-stakes US House contests in the state’s newly redrawn congressional districts – which are set to play an outsized and potentially decisive role in the battle for power in Washington in November’s midterm elections. My colleague Lauren Gambino has more:

Iowa
Per my colleague Chris Stein, with Trump’s approval ratings deep underwater, gas prices high and historical political trends favoring the party out of power, Democrats this year are considering a comeback in Iowa, putting the state at the center of their campaigns to win back control of both the US House and the Senate. That effort for a “once-in-a-generation” breakthrough in the GOP-dominated state is being led by pro-hunting Democrat Rob Sand, who is running for governor. Chris wrote about him below. Democrats also believe they have a shot at winning three of the state’s US House seats and a competitive chance at securing a US Senate seat, where the GOP frontrunner recently called Trump’s war on Iran a “political liability”.

New Jersey
One of this year’s most closely watched House midterms will take place in the battleground district currently represented by now-infamous Republican Tom Kean Jr, who has drawn public scrutiny and concern after missing more than 100 House votes due to an undisclosed illness. Voters are deciding which Democrat will run against him in November – and the seat is a must-win for the party. The frontrunner, veteran army trauma surgeon and political newcomer Adam Hamawy, has secured endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. My colleague Joseph Gedeon has more:

New Mexico
Contests in the state include primaries for congressional seats, a US Senate seat and a long list of statewide offices, but the governor’s race is the main event. Deb Haaland, who was Joe Biden’s interior secretary, is running for the Democratic nomination, which could put her on a historic path for Native American leaders.

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Montana
In Montana, a five-way Democratic fight is under way for the retiring Republican senator’s seat. Independent Seth Bodnar, former president of the University of Montana, is outraising them all at the moment but they’re refusing to step aside, Politico reports this morning.

South Dakota
The race is on for state governor, Sioux Falls mayor, a US Senate and House seat, a Republican primary for local lawmakers. The incumbent GOP governor Larry Rhoden faces three primary challengers in his first run for a full term. He stepped up into the role from the lieutenant governorship when the former governor, the since-ousted Kristi Noem, left to lead the Department of Homeland Security.

The Associated Press contributed reporting

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Key events

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Joseph Gedeon

On the day Donald Trump endorsed him as a tireless advocate for New Jersey’s seventh district, the representative Tom Kean Jr was, as he has been since early March, nowhere to be found.

Kean, a New Jersey Republican, was last seen when he cast a House floor vote on 5 March, and he is running unopposed in Tuesday’s Republican primary. The Democratic race in his district, meanwhile, has attracted multiple candidates and ample fundraising.

In late April, his office said he was dealing with a “personal medical issue” and would be back “very soon”. He told the New Jersey Globe last month he expected to return within “the next couple of weeks”. In the meantime, Kean’s social media accounts have continued posting regularly, with staff attending ribbon-cuttings and graduation ceremonies on his behalf.

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California Democratic gubernatorial candidate criticized over meeting with trans athlete | Fox News Video

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California Democratic gubernatorial candidate criticized over meeting with trans athlete | Fox News Video


Roxanne Hoge and Stella Escobedo delve into the latest Berkeley IGS poll, revealing the frontrunners in California’s heated gubernatorial race. The discussion extends to the Los Angeles mayoral race, where candidates Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt are locked in a tight contest. Panelists weigh in on candidate endorsements and the broader political landscape ahead of the upcoming elections.



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