Science

Early adopters of ‘zone zero’ fared better in L.A. County fires, insurance-backed investigation finds

Published

4 months ago

December 13, 2025

Early adopters of ‘zone zero’ fared better in L.A. County fires, insurance-backed investigation finds

As the Eaton and Palisades fires rapidly jumped between tightly packed houses, the proactive steps some residents took to retrofit their homes with fire-resistant building materials and to clear flammable brush became a significant indicator of a home’s fate.

Early adopters who cleared vegetation and flammable materials within the first five feet of their houses’ walls — in line with draft rules for the state’s hotly debated “zone zero” regulations — fared better than those who didn’t, an on-the-ground investigation from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety published Wednesday found.

Over a week in January, while the fires were still burning, the insurance team inspected more than 250 damaged, destroyed and unscathed homes in Altadena and Pacific Palisades.

On properties where the majority of zone zero land was covered in vegetation and flammable materials, the fires destroyed 27% of homes; On properties with less than a quarter of zone zero covered, only 9% were destroyed.

The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, an independent research nonprofit funded by the insurance industry, performed similar investigations for Colorado’s 2012 Waldo Canyon fire, Hawaii’s 2023 Lahaina fire and California’s Tubbs, Camp and Woolsey fires of 2017 and 2018.

While a handful of recent studies have found homes with sparse vegetation in zone zero were more likely to survive fires, skeptics say it does not yet amount to a scientific consensus.

Travis Longcore, senior associate director and an adjunct professor at the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, cautioned that the insurance nonprofit’s results are only exploratory: The team did not analyze whether other factors, such as the age of the homes, were influencing their zone zero analysis, and how the nonprofit characterizes zone zero for its report, he noted, does not exactly mirror California’s draft regulations.

Meanwhile, Michael Gollner, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at UC Berkeley who studies how wildfires destroy and damage homes, noted that the nonprofit’s sample does not perfectly represent the entire burn areas, since the group focused specifically on damaged properties and were constrained by the active firefight.

Nonetheless, the nonprofit’s findings help tie together growing evidence of zone zero’s effectiveness from tests in the lab — aimed at identifying the pathways fire can use to enter a home — with the real-world analyses of which measures protected homes in wildfires, Gollner said.

A recent study from Gollner looking at more than 47,000 structures in five major California fires (which did not include the Eaton and Palisades fires) found that of the properties that removed vegetation from zone zero, 37% survived, compared with 20% that did not.

Once a fire spills from the wildlands into an urban area, homes become the primary fuel. When a home catches fire, it increases the chance nearby homes burn, too. That is especially true when homes are tightly packed.

When looking at California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection data for the entirety of the two fires, the insurance team found that “hardened” homes in Altadena and the Palisades that had noncombustable roofs, fire-resistant siding, double-pane windows and closed eaves survived undamaged at least 66% of the time, if they were at least 20 feet away from other structures.

But when the distance was less than 10 feet, only 45% of the hardened homes escaped with no damage.

“The spacing between structures, it’s the most definitive way to differentiate what survives and what doesn’t,” said Roy Wright, president and chief executive of the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. At the same time, said Wright, “it’s not feasible to change that.”

Looking at steps that residents are more likely to be able to take, the insurance nonprofit found that the best approach is for homeowners to apply however many home hardening and defensible space measures that they can. Each one can shave a few percentage points off the risk of a home burning, and combined, the effect can be significant.

As for zone zero, the insurance team found a number of examples of how vegetation and flammable materials near a home could aid the destruction of a property.

At one home, embers appeared to have ignited some hedges a few feet away from the structure. That heat was enough to shatter a single pane window, creating the perfect opportunity for embers to enter and burn the house from the inside out. It miraculously survived.

At others, embers from the blazes landed on trash and recycling bins close to the houses, sometimes burning holes through the plastic lids and igniting the material inside. In one instance, the fire in the bin spread to a nearby garage door, but the house was spared.

Wooden decks and fences were also common accomplices that helped embers ignite a structure.

California’s current zone zero draft regulations take some of those risks into account. They prohibit wooden fences within the first five feet of a home; the state’s zone zero committee is also considering whether to prohibit virtually all vegetation in the zone or to just limit it (regardless, well-maintained trees are allowed).

On the other hand, the draft regulations do not prohibit keeping trash bins in the zone, which the committee determined would be difficult to enforce. They also do not mandate homeowners replace wooden decks.

The controversy around the draft regulations center around the proposal to remove virtually all healthy vegetation, including shrubs and grasses, from the zone.

Critics argue that, given the financial burden zone zero would place on homeowners, the state should instead focus on measures with lower costs and a significant proven benefit.

“A focus on vegetation is misguided,” said David Lefkowith, president of the Mandeville Canyon Assn.

At its most recent zone zero meeting, the Board of Forestry and Fire Protection directed staff to further research the draft regulations’ affordability.

“As the Board and subcommittee consider which set of options best balance safety, urgency, and public feasibility, we are also shifting our focus to implementation and looking to state leaders to identify resources for delivering on this first-in-the-nation regulation,” Tony Andersen, executive officer of the board, said in a statement. “The need is urgent, but we also want to invest the time necessary to get this right.”

Home hardening and defensible space are just two of many strategies used to protect lives and property. The insurance team suspects that many of the close calls they studied in the field — homes that almost burned but didn’t — ultimately survived thanks to firefighters who stepped in. Wildfire experts also recommend programs to prevent ignitions in the first place and to manage wildlands to prevent intense spread of a fire that does ignite.

For Wright, the report is a reminder of the importance of community. The fate of any individual home is tied to that of those nearby — it takes a whole neighborhood hardening their homes and maintaining their lawns to reach herd immunity protection against fire’s contagious spread.

“When there is collective action, it changes the outcomes,” Wright said. “Wildfire is insidious. It doesn’t stop at the fence line.”

Science

NASA launches humans to moon for first time in half-century

Published

11 hours ago

April 2, 2026

Press Room

NASA launches humans to moon for first time in half-century

For the first time in more than 50 years, astronauts are on their way to the moon.

NASA’s colossal Space Launch System rocket lifted off at 3:35 p.m. Pacific time from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the start of the 10-day Artemis II mission.

In the hours and minutes leading up to launch, as the astronauts waited aboard, NASA engineers troubleshooted minor issues with the 30-story-tall rocket. First, the teams identified an issue with the hardware that communicates with a system designed to detonate the rocket to protect public safety if the rocket veers off course. Next, there was a fluke temperature reading on the Launch Abort System, designed to pull the crew to safety during such an event. Finally, they managed a brief telemetry issue with the capsule.

All were ultimately resolved, and the agency proceeded.

“On this historic mission, you take with you the heart of this Artemis team, the daring spirit of the American people and our partners across the globe, and the hopes and dreams of a new generation,” Artemis II launch director Charlie Blackwell-Thompson said to the crew minutes before launch. “Good luck. Godspeed, Artemis II. Let’s go.”

In a few days’ time, the four astronauts aboard will perform a flyby of the moon — they will not land on the surface nor will they enter the moon’s orbit. Instead, the flyby is designed as an essential stepping-stone mission to test the rocket, human life support systems and flight procedures ahead of a lunar landing, which NASA hopes to pull off in 2028.

NASA’s Artemis II moon rocket lifts off from the Kennedy Space Center on Wednesday in Cape Canaveral, Fla.

(Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

This includes studies on the astronauts’ sleep and mental health, as well as how deep-space radiation and microgravity affect organs and immune system. The crew will also practice manually piloting the spacecraft while still close to Earth.

NASA expects the crew to reach the moon Monday morning, around 10 a.m. Pacific time. As the astronauts pass the far side of the moon, NASA expects to temporarily lose communication with the crew, who will focus on documenting and analyzing the rugged lunar surface. Around this point, NASA anticipates the crew will break the Apollo 13 crew’s record for the farthest distance any human has traveled from Earth.

The crew will then begin their four-day return. The crew capsule is set to slam into the Earth’s atmosphere at roughly 30 times the speed of sound — potentially making it the fastest reentry of a crewed capsule in history — on April 10. NASA anticipates the crew will splash down off the coast of San Diego around 5 p.m. Pacific time.

The mission, made possible by scientists, engineers and support crews across the country and world, has a touch of Southern California, too.

Victor Glover, the astronaut piloting the mission, was once a kid in the Pomona Valley, watching the space shuttle launch on TV and dreaming of driving the thing. He cut his teeth as a test pilot out in the Mojave, attending test pilot school at Edwards Air Force Base and serving on a Navy test pilot squadron in China Lake, Calif.

If the mission is successful, Glover will become the first Black person to travel to the moon. With him will be the first woman to do so, NASA astronaut Christina Koch, and the first non-American to do so, Jeremy Hansen of the Canadian Space Agency. Not to be outdone by his crewmates, mission commander Reid Wiseman, at 50, will be the oldest to do so.

NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center inside Edwards Air Force Base is also conducting critical research and testing for the mission. They supported two tests of the rocket’s Launch Abort System — designed to accelerate from 0 to 500 mph in just two seconds to literally outrun the debris of an exploding rocket — in the 2010s. (The rocket discarded the abort system after the crew safely escaped the majority of Earth’s atmosphere.)

During reentry, the center will participate in a high-speed relay of military and civilian planes to chase the capsule and measure how the heat shield performs with high-tech telescopes and sensors. Artemis II is testing out a new reentry trajectory after an uncrewed test mission in 2022 resulted in unexpected damage to the heat shield.

Finally, once the capsule safely splashes down off San Diego, NASA and U.S. Navy divers will secure the capsule, with medical staff from both on standby. A Navy ship will then bring the capsule back to Naval Base San Diego, right next to the city’s downtown.

The Artemis program ultimately aims to land humans back on the moon, help the space agency establish a lunar base and serve as the testing grounds for future missions to Mars.

NASA plans to launch Artemis III, a mission in Earth’s orbit to test docking the NASA spacecraft with SpaceX’s and Blue Origin’s lunar landers, in 2027. It aspires to launch Artemis IV, which would put humans on the surface of the moon, in 2028.

“Artemis II is the opening act,” said NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman shortly before launch. “We’re going into the golden age of science and discovery right now.”

Science

NASA will attempt to launch astronauts to the moon today. What to know and how to watch

Published

23 hours ago

April 1, 2026

Press Room

NASA will attempt to launch astronauts to the moon today. What to know and how to watch

On Wednesday, for the first time since 1972, NASA is attempting to launch astronauts to the moon.

The space agency is targeting a 3:24 p.m. Pacific time launch of the colossal Space Launch System rocket with four astronauts aboard. Once off the ground, the crew — including Southern California native Victor Glover — will fly past the moon (but not land on the lunar surface or enter its orbit) and splash down off the coast of San Diego in roughly 10 days.

How to watch

NASA has already begun around-the-clock coverage of the entire mission — including launch preparations, liftoff, the lunar flyby and splashdown — on its YouTube page.

NASA is also livestreaming major milestones, including the launch, on its X account, Facebook page, Twitch profile and website.

If cable television is more your speed, C-SPAN is covering the launch (featuring its famous viewer calls).

Backup dates

The launch is ultimately dependent on the weather. The forecast shows an 80% chance of favorable weather for launch, with some potential for clouds and high winds at ground level that could delay the mission. Wednesday’s launch opportunity is open for two hours, until 5:24 p.m.

If weather or minor technical concerns prevent launch Wednesday, NASA has additional two-hour launch windows every evening through April 6. After that, it would have to wait until at least April 30.

The historical significance

Artemis II is the first mission since Apollo 17 in 1972 to carry humans to the moon. The capsule will carry the first Black person, first woman and first non-American to travel around the moon — potentially traveling farther and reentering the Earth’s atmosphere faster than any other human mission in history.

Although the astronauts will not land on the moon, Artemis II mimics early Apollo missions that were designed as a stepping stone to test all of the equipment and procedures before making the daring landing.

A springboard to Mars

The Artemis program ultimately aims to land humans back on the moon, help the space agency establish a lunar base and serve as the testing grounds for future missions to Mars.

Science

Video: NASA’s Mission Back to the Moon

Published

1 day ago

April 1, 2026

Press Room

Artemis II, which would be the first time anyone would travel this far from Earth since 1972, launches on April 1. Kenneth Chang, a reporter for The New York Times, describes how the mission is key to a U.S. goal.

By Kenneth Chang, Marco Hernandez, Melanie Bencosme, Jon Miller, Gabriel Blanco, Joey Sendaydiego and Luke Piotrowski

April 1, 2026