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America’s smallest cattle herd in 70 years means rebuilding will take years and beef prices could stay high

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America’s smallest cattle herd in 70 years means rebuilding will take years and beef prices could stay high

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America’s ranchers are facing their smallest cattle herd in 70 years.

Years of punishing drought, rising costs and an aging ranching workforce have thinned herds across the country. Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding will take years and beef prices aren’t likely to ease anytime soon.

“The biggest thing has been drought,” said Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University.

BEEF PRICES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS — BUT AMERICANS AREN’T CUTTING BACK

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He said years of dry weather have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, even the cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it hard to rebuild. 

“It’s not going to be a quick fix, you’re not going to solve it overnight,” Belasco told Fox News Digital. 

Ranchers have sold off many of their cattle in order to cope with rising prices. (Melissa Phillip/Houston Chronicle/Getty Images)

Belasco said the aftereffects of years of drought are still being felt and until ranchers can rebuild their herds, consumers will keep paying the price.

“The primary reason you see prices so high is because we haven’t seen any kind of inventory rebuilding,” he said. “Until you see that rebuild, you probably won’t see prices coming back down again.”

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That slow rebuilding is a challenge for the cattle industry, according to Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.

“The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” Peel said. “We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.”

Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, said there’s no quick way to ease pressure on beef prices, since it takes roughly two years to bring animals to market and several years to rebuild herds.

TRUMP’S BEEF IMPORT PLAN IGNORES KEY ISSUE SQUEEZING AMERICAN CATTLE RANCHERS

Even as ranchers wait for herds to recover, parched conditions are working against them, turning pastures to dust and feed into a luxury. 

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Research from the Kansas City Federal Reserve found that with each step up in drought severity, cattle-producing regions see about a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size and a 4% decrease in farm income.

To cope, many ranchers are shrinking their herds. A 2022 Farm Bureau survey found that about two in three ranchers have sold animals off, leaving them with roughly one-third fewer cattle than before.

Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding the cattle inventory will take years. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post/Getty Images)

Few people see the challenges of ranching more clearly than Cole Bolton, owner of K&C Cattle Company, whose pastures stretch along the soft edge of the Texas Hill Country.

“I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage. My message to consumers is simple, folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds,” Bolton told Fox News Digital.

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Bolton said the region, known for its red dirt and family-run ranches, has gone nearly three months without rain. While showers were finally arriving, he noted that the cattle industry has weathered one setback after another, from market turmoil to extreme conditions, over the past five years.

The growing strain highlights how persistent drought is reshaping the ranching industry and tightening the nation’s livestock supply.

That pressure is being felt not just on ranches but also at the grocery store.

According to USDA data, the average retail price of beef rose from about $8.51 a pound in August 2024 to $9.85 a pound a year later, a gain of roughly 16%. 

The “5-market steer price” represents what ranchers earn for live cattle before they’re processed into meat. The “farm-to-retail” spread reflects everything that happens after that – the costs and profits tied to slaughtering, processing, packaging, shipping and selling beef in stores.

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Much of that work — and the profits it generates — are concentrated among the industry’s “big four” meatpackers: Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill and National Beef.

Together, these data points show that while ranchers are earning slightly more for their cattle than they were a few years ago, the biggest price increases are happening well after the animals leave the pasture.

Despite the markups between the ranch and the grocery store, demand hasn’t wavered. Americans are still buying beef more than ever.

Americans are still buying beef even as prices climb to nearly $10 a pound. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)

Beef remains the dominant player in the fresh-meat aisle, with $44.3 billion in sales over the past year, a 12% increase that outpaced chicken, pork and turkey, according to Beef Research, a contractor to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

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Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, told Fox News Digital that strong consumer demand will continue to drive beef prices higher.

“There’s nothing that forces me or you or anybody else when we go into the grocery store to pay more for beef. People are choosing to,” he said. “The consumer desire for beef is strong and, regardless of the supply-side situation, that has the effect of pulling prices up.”

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Los Angeles, Ca

Deputies reveal what led to violent L.A. County bus crash that injured 13 people

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Deputies reveal what led to violent L.A. County bus crash that injured 13 people

Authorities revealed new details Wednesday afternoon about the violent Santa Clarita crash involving a city transit bus, an overturned semi truck and two other vehicles that left 13 people injured.

According to the Santa Clarita Valley Sheriff’s Station, the driver of a semi truck hauling a full load of gravel may have been traveling as fast as 70 mph when the vehicle approached a yellow light at the intersection of Golden Valley Road and Centre Pointe Parkway around 9:30 a.m.

Investigators said the driver then attempted to make a right turn to avoid running the red light before crashing into the bus and two passenger vehicles.

“[The driver] tried to make a right-hand turn to avoid running the red light and then crashed into the bus and the other two passenger vehicles,” Capt. Brandon Barclay of the Santa Clarita Valley Sheriff’s Station told KTLA.

Officials noted that the speed limit on Golden Valley Road is 50 mph.

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Sky5 aerial footage showed the heavily damaged Santa Clarita Transit bus pushed onto a curb while the semi truck overturned nearby, and another vehicle appeared pinned beneath the front right side of the bus.

“When you look at it, it looks like a scene from Universal CityWalk,” Barclay said.

Authorities said 13 people were injured in the crash.

One passenger seated in the back of the bus had to be freed using the Jaws of Life and remained hospitalized in critical condition Wednesday afternoon, KTLA’s Angeli Kakade reported.

Seven additional people were transported to hospitals while five others declined medical treatment at the scene.

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“You have a bus that was hit by a semi truck, so it’s very impactful for this community,” Barclay added.

  • Santa Clarita city bus crash
  • Santa Clarita city bus crash
  • Santa Clarita city bus crash
  • Santa Clarita city bus crash
  • Santa Clarita city bus crash
  • Santa Clarita city bus crash

Former Santa Clarita transit bus driver Darryl Richardson said he was stunned when he saw the aftermath of the crash.

“I know how a person feels to see a big old truck coming right at you,” Richardson told KTLA. “Thank God if it had broadsided the driver, we’d be talking about a different conversation right now.”

The City of Santa Clarita said road closures around the crash scene were expected to continue for several hours as deputies investigated what led up to the collision.

All directions of Centre Pointe Parkway between Golden Valley Road and Ruether Avenue remained closed Wednesday afternoon. Eastbound Golden Valley Road was also shut down from Robert C. Lee Parkway to Centre Pointe Parkway.

Drivers were urged to avoid the area and use alternate routes.

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The crash remains under investigation.

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Los Angeles, Ca

Burglary reported in San Fernando Valley hours after officials announce arrests 

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Burglary reported in San Fernando Valley hours after officials announce arrests 

Just hours after officials announced arrests connected to a string of residential burglaries, another one was reported in the San Fernando Valley.  

According to a Los Angeles Police Department spokesperson, the incident took place just before 1:45 a.m. Wednesday in the 5000 block of Bluebell Avenue, which is located in the Valley Village neighborhood.  

The person who lives in the home was too shaken to appear on camera but told KTLA that three masked suspects broke in while she was inside and took off within minutes.

The LAPD spokesperson was unable to confirm that detail, or any other details, right away. It was unclear whether anything was taken from the home.

Police investigate a reported burglary in the 5000 block of Bluebell Avenue in the Valley Village neighborhood on May 12, 2026. (KTLA)

The alleged break-in came less than a day after L.A. Mayor Karen Bass and other officials announced arrests in a string of burglaries mainly plaguing the San Fernando Valley. At a press conference Tuesday, Mayor Karen Bass said there has been a 30% reduction year-to-date in property crimes and burglaries.

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The LAPD says part of their strategy is to saturate areas, like the Valley, that have been targeted disproportionately, using visible officers and others “behind the scenes.”

“Burglaries in the city are down over 30%, reflecting the effectiveness of our proactive enforcement and prevention strategies,” LAPD Deputy Chief Gerald Woodyard said. “We are aware that the burglary crews are highly organized and sophisticated, and we are constantly adjusting our strategies to counteract their tactics.”

That said, the LAPD is down anywhere from 800 to 1,400 police officers. The mayor said she’s fighting to hire more and is using mental health professionals on calls which don’t require a police officer.

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Los Angeles, Ca

Detectives investigating if La Cañada burglary is connected to string of recent break-ins

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Detectives investigating if La Cañada burglary is connected to string of recent break-ins

The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department is investigating a burglary, which happened on the 1200 block of El Vago Drive in La Cañada Flintridge on May 2.

The burglary happened around 7:20 p.m. Detectives are actively investigating if the burglary is connected to a string of other recent burglaries in L.A. County.

A woman who lives in the area contacted KTLA about the burglary after she noticed that security camera footage of the suspects matched the suspects seen in a different burglary in Studio City. During the Studio City burglary, the suspects attacked a Good Samaritan with bear spray.

A victim was attacked by a burglar using bear spray after he confronted the two suspects burglarizing a Studio City home on May 8, 2028. (Steve Calabro)

LASD Capt. Ryan Vienna called the rash of burglaries in the region “unacceptable.” LASD has deployed additional deputies to the La Cañada Flintridge area in response to the burglary.

“I ask all members of the community to promptly report suspicious activity or crimes in progress, as well as cooperate with our investigators so we may apprehend those who would or have caused harm,” Vienna said.

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No other details have been revealed in the case as it remains under investigation. Anyone with information about the burglary is asked to contact LASD at (818) 236-4015.

Burglaries are an ongoing problem across Southern California in recent months. On May 5, four men were arrested for stealing more than $100,000 in valuables form a Thousand Oaks home, according to the Ventura County Sheriff’s Office.

LASD provided following burglary prevention tips:

  • Lock all doors and windows, even when home
  • Keep exterior lights on during nighttime hours
  • Utilize alarm systems and surveillance cameras if available
  • Avoid leaving valuables visible from outside the home
  • Collect mail and packages promptly
  • Report suspicious persons or vehicles in your neighborhood immediately
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