Arizona
Arizona’s Family/HighGround Statewide Survey: Hobbs has slight lead over Lake in governor’s race
PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) — Arizona’s Household has partnered with HighGround, the oldest public affairs agency within the state, to take a better have a look at the largest races on this 12 months’s midterm election and attainable outcomes by polling voters.
Concerning the Survey
The survey was carried out amongst probably voters from October 12 by means of 13, 2022, with a random pattern of 500 folks. The ballot surveyed probably Arizona 2022 Normal Election voters with a historical past of electoral participation and was balanced to mannequin the probably turnout of voters throughout occasion, age, area, and gender. The dwell interview survey of voters was carried out by HighGround Public Affairs to landline and cellular phone customers. Primarily based on earlier midterm election developments, the partisan benefit was set at +8% GOP. The margin of error is ±4.3%.
In Arizona, midterms have traditionally favored Republicans, and over half of the citizens on this election are 50 or over.
The race for governor
A lot of the focus this 12 months has been on the governor’s race between Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs. HighGround’s survey requested members that if the election for Arizona governor had been held in the present day, who would they vote for? In keeping with survey outcomes, it’s all the way down to a one-point benefit, with 45.8% for Hobbs and 44.8% for Lake. Issue within the margin of error and this race is taken into account a statistical tie. “We knew it was going to be a good race. We’re not taking any vote with no consideration,” mentioned Hobbs.
“We’ve modeled a conservative Republican turnout but when of us don’t end up round them, if we don’t see these independents present up, if we don’t see a few of these youthful voters present up, it’s going to profit the Republicans,” defined Paul Bentz, HighGround Senior Vice President for Analysis and Technique. “What we’re seeing right here, for instance, within the Lake versus Hobbs race, Lake is dropping about 10 factors price of Republicans. And that’s noteworthy as a result of that mainly offsets a fairly decent-sized chunk of the GOP benefit.”
Turnout could be a massive query mark. Bentz expects there to be 600,000 fewer Arizonans who will vote on this 12 months’s midterms versus the 2020 basic election. “When the president is just not on the high of the ticket, turnout is down in Arizona,” Bentz mentioned.
Who’s voting primarily based on gender, age and site?
Wanting on the numbers, Hobbs has an enormous lead amongst Unbiased voters, 60% to Lake’s 35%. There’s additionally a large margin with regards to gender, with 50.8% of girls saying they’ll vote for Hobbs. That’s the identical share of males surveyed who say they’ll vote for Lake. That means that the Supreme Court docket’s resolution to overturn Roe v. Wade has had an impact on girls. Alternatively, Lake’s attraction to male voters suggests they’re centered on extra economic-related points corresponding to inflation and fuel costs.
HighGround’s survey exhibits Hobbs instructions a number of age teams, with 58.3% to twenty-eight.3% of voters beneath 29, 53.3% to 40% for 30 to 39-year-olds and 49.4% to 37% for these aged 40-49. That modifications if you hit 50 or over.
The survey additionally exhibits Lake holds an enormous benefit with older voters, primarily these aged 65 and older, 53.1% to 38.8%. One motive, in keeping with HighGround’s analysis, is the shortage of a gubernatorial debate.
“I do assume Blake Masters’ tabloid newspaper, with eight pages price of data on Masters himself in addition to criticism of Katie Hobbs for not being keen to debate,” Bentz mentioned. “I do assume that has performed a job in kind of serving to them solidify their 65 and older section.”
That wasn’t essentially the case primarily based on numbers following the first election in August, the place HighGround says it appeared like voters 65 and older may very well be up for grabs. Since then, primarily based on different points just like the economic system and a rise in advertisements and different communications, that age group appears to have trended again in direction of Republican.
One other consideration is who voters will decide primarily based on the place within the state they dwell. Not surprisingly, HighGround says Maricopa County voters will make up many of the turnout. But it surely’s in rural areas the place Lake is seemingly in management at 64%. HighGround says Lake can also be doing effectively in Mohave (53%), Yavapai (45%) and Pinal (46%) counties.
Key takeaways from the survey
So what are a few of the greatest takeaways from HighGround’s survey? On the subject of the governor and different massive races, there are a couple of key elements this 12 months corresponding to girls trending towards Democrats. Then there are voters who don’t determine with one occasion or the opposite.
“It doesn’t seem to me that Republicans are all that interested by profitable Independents, which is why these races are so tight,” Bentz mentioned. “At an eight-point Republican benefit, if Republicans had been to separate Independents, they might be strolling away with this factor.” Arizona’s Household reached out to Lake and she or he mentioned, “We’re reaching out to independents. I imagine our insurance policies are greatest suited to unravel the issues we’ve been going through for many years in Arizona and I feel they’re useful whether or not you’re democrat, impartial or republican.”
Regardless that the survey exhibits Hobbs barely forward, HighGround believes the momentum stays with Lake.
Developing this week
Search for further reviews from the Arizona’s Household/HighGround Statewide Survey all this week. On Tuesday, we’ll take a better have a look at the U.S. Senate race between Mark Kelly, Blake Masters and Marc Victor.
Different races surveyed embody Secretary of State and Superintendent of Public Instruction. We’ll additionally break down numbers and clarify different points on the election, together with Propositions 211 and 310.
Keep up-to-date with our election headlines and make sure you try our Voter’s Information, masking all the things from alternative ways to vote, to observe the standing of your poll.
Copyright 2022 KTVK/KPHO. All rights reserved.
Arizona
How former Arizona Wildcats fared in Week 11 of NFL season
Another week of the NFL season is in the books. Here’s how former Arizona Wildcats fared around the league in Week 11.
Nick Folk, K, Tennessee Titans
Folk made a pair of field goals, including a long of 43 yards, in Tennessee’s 23-13 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Folk has 396 career field goals, one shy of 15th all-time.
Christian Roland-Wallace, ST, Kansas City Chiefs
Roland-Wallace played 13 snaps on special teams in Kansas City’s 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Roland-Wallace earned a 66.7 grade, second-best on the Chiefs special teams unit.
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, ST, San Francisco 49ers
Flannigan-Fowles played 14 special teams snaps for San Francisco in its 20-17 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Flannigan-Fowles’ 63.6 grade on PFF was fourth-best on the 49ers special teams unit.
Jacob Cowing, WR/ST, San Francisco 49ers
Cowing played one offensive snap and two special teams snaps in San Francisco’s loss.
Jordan Morgan, OT, Green Bay Packers
Morgan was placed on the injured reserve on Saturday, meaning he’ll miss at least the next four weeks. Morgan reportedly reaggravated a shoulder injury during practice.
Arizona
Democratic Arizona governor says she'll work with Trump on border security if it won't harm families
PHOENIX (AP) — Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs said Monday she is willing to work with President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration on border security issues like stopping fentanyl trafficking, but not in areas that she said could harm Arizona families such as mass deportation.
Hobbs traveled to the Arizona-Mexico border on Monday to trumpet her state’s National Guard work helping crack down on smuggling of the deadly synthetic opioid into the U.S. through Nogales, Arizona. More than half of all border seizures of the drug are made in Nogales.
“Border security was a core issue of the Trump campaign,” Hobbs told reporters as vehicles moved behind her. “I look forward to having conversations with the incoming president about Arizona’s needs, including border security and the work we’ve done here to build these partnerships that are actually producing results and how we can continue those partnerships under his administration.”
But, she added, there are Arizona families who “are worried about threats from the Trump administration as well.”
“I will not tolerate actions that harm Arizonans, that harm our communities and quite honestly, divert resources from providing real security at our border,” Hobbs said.
Trump has promised to conduct the largest deportation operation in American history, something that would upend the lives of the 11 million people living in the United States without authorization, many of whom have family members who are U.S. citizens.
“I will stand up to protect Arizonans from harm by the federal government, from anyone,” Hobbs said, but “I’m not going to comment on hypotheticals. We don’t know what a mass deportation plan will look like, what resources it will involve.”
Hobbs also touted Operation Secure, her initiative deploying the National Guard to assist local and federal enforcement in Arizona’s border communities like Nogales. The governor said 170 Arizona National Guard members are assigned to counterdrug efforts statewide, including 40 at the border in Nogales.
The governor’s border visit comes less than two weeks after Democrats suffered blistering losses at the polls in Arizona, with Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of about 185,000 votes statewide and beefing up the Republican majority in the Arizona Legislature.
Hobbs said Monday that border security is not a “Republican or Democratic issue” and she will work with “anyone” to keep the border safe.
Troy Miller, acting head of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, also spoke at the news conference and called National Guard members “a critical force multiplier” for his agency’s operations at the Nogales port.
“The scope of this problem is too large and the stakes are too high for us to do this work alone,” Miller said. “That’s why I’m so proud of the partnerships we have built, especially the ones right here in Arizona.”
Arizona
$100,000 reward in Arizona wolf killing mystery
A protected Mexican gray wolf named Hope was found dead on November 7 near Flagstaff, Arizona, prompting a significant reward for information leading to a conviction over her killing.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Arizona Game and Fish Department announced a combined reward of $103,500 for details about her death.
Her killing has sparked outrage among wildlife advocates who see her as a critical messenger for Mexican gray wolf recovery efforts.
Mexican gray wolves are protected under the Endangered Species Act. Killing a Mexican wolf is a serious federal offense that can result in substantial fines and potential imprisonment.
So far, details of the animal’s death have not been publicly released and an investigation is underway.
Newsweek contacted the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via its website for comment.
Having dispersed from the Tu Dil Hil pack in the Mexican Wolf Experimental Population Area, Hope had carved out a territory north of Interstate 40, an area outside the official wolf recovery zone. She had been seen traveling with another Mexican wolf in the area, according to a Fish and Wildlife Service statement.
Conservation experts viewed her presence as evidence that suitable wolf habitat extends beyond current designated regions.
“Hope was a sentient individual being and a messenger of the changes needed in the Mexican gray wolf recovery program,” Claire Musser, executive director at Grand Canyon Wolf Recovery Project, said in a statement.
Her territory challenged existing conservation boundaries and demonstrated the potential for wolf populations to naturally expand.
Wildlife advocates have questioned how the death could have occurred, as the animal would have been instantly recognizable as a wolf.
Cyndi Tuell from Western Watersheds Project said in a statement that Hope’s tracking collar was clearly visible, making it impossible for a shooter to mistake her for a coyote or claim an accidental killing.
“If someone killed Hope, the full weight of the federal and state law should be brought to bear against the person or persons who took her away from our human community which found inspiration and joy in her existence, and from the nonhuman community that depends upon top predators to bring balance to the landscape,” Tuell said.
Hope’s presence had garnered significant public support. In 2021, Flagstaff passed a resolution supporting Mexican gray wolf recovery, recognizing both the ecological importance and potential economic benefits of wolf-related tourism.
Scientists have recommended expanding wolf recovery plans to include additional subpopulations, particularly in the Grand Canyon ecoregion and southern Rockies. Hope’s journey represented an example of this potential.
Sandy Bahr from the Sierra Club’s Grand Canyon Chapter demanded accountability. “If the investigation into Hope’s death reveals that a person killed her, we expect the Arizona Game and Fish Department to advocate for justice for Hope,” she said in a statement.
Taylor McKinnon of the Center for Biological Diversity added: “Hope embodied the dreams of many in Flagstaff, including the school children who named her. Her death is not just a loss for wildlife, but for our entire community.”
The fate of the other wolf, named as Mystery, which was traveling with Hope remains unknown, according to the Center for Biological Diversity.
Anyone with information about Hope’s death is urged to contact U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service special agents in Pinetop, Arizona at (346) 254-0515.
Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about gray wolves? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.
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