Alaska
Reporter’s Notebook: What Palin’s loss in Alaska means for November
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Particular elections in August for Alaska’s at-large Home seat often aren’t one of the best metric to assist predict main, home political traits.
Alaska is a large state with a tiny voting inhabitants. Issues affect Alaska in another way than they do the remainder of the U.S. In the case of Alaska, it’s not on par with the swing states of “Arizona” or “Pennsylvania” — purple states the place the political winds bellow in each instructions.
However the northern political lights of Alaska may illuminate an vital phenomenon to observe for within the midterms this fall.
Alaska voters simply tapped Rep.-elect Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, to succeed the late Rep. Don Younger, R-Alaska, for the rest of his time period. Younger died earlier this yr flying again to the state. Younger held the seat since profitable a particular election himself in 1973 — and flipping the seat from Democratic to Republican. Peltola bested 2008 Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin and GOPer Nick Begich III. Begich is the grandson of late Rep. Nick Begich, D-Alaska, who died in a aircraft crash in 1972 and was succeeded by Younger. Former Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, is the uncle of Nick Begich III.
REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK: WHO’S REALLY ON THE BALLOT IN NOVEMBER?
Within the particular election, Palin completed second. Begich III completed third.
Alaska encompasses a new system to elect its lawmakers. It’s referred to as “ranked-choice voting.” If a specific candidate fails to attain 50.1 % of the tally, voters then “rank” their different selections. The candidate who voters listed as “second” on probably the most ballots is rewarded with a lift. These “second place votes” are basically handled as “first place” votes. In essence, this creates an “instantaneous runoff” and voters don’t must return to the polls a second tine.
The second-place votes assist resolve the winner.
Alaska voters carried out ranked-choice voting by a slender margin in 2020. Maine additionally put ranked-choice voting into impact in recent times.
Democrats instantly seized on the narrative that the get together was instantly blunting a “pink wave.” Democrats unexpectedly gained a particular election in upstate New York in August. Then Peltola gained in a state which former President Donald Trump carried by 14 factors in 2016 and 10 factors in 2020.
An omen for the autumn? Perhaps. However that isn’t the canary within the coal mine (caribou on the tundra?) which we’re latching onto right here.
Republicans argued voters didn’t perceive ranked-choice voting. They level out that after the primary spherical, Peltola solely scored about 40 % of the vote. But Republicans Palin and Begich commanded a mixed 59 % of the vote.
However, right here’s one other information level from the Alaska Home contest which deserves consideration.
DEMOCRAT MARY PELTOLA WINS ALASKA SPECIAL ELECTION TO FILL REMAINDER OF REP. DON YOUNG’S TERM
Peltola gained. Palin completed second. However the radioactive Palin was not the second alternative of many Republican voters who solid their ballots for Begich. Actually, these GOP voters seen Palin as so controversial that they picked the Democrat Peltola as their second alternative over Palin.
That was the issue which propelled Peltola to victory in what has been a Republican seat for practically 5 a long time.
The large takeaway from Alaska: Sarah Palin and different GOP candidates, who’re too controversial or espouse views too carefully aligned with former President Trump, stumble on the polls.
Republicans might have been capable of maintain this seat with somebody aside from Sarah Palin on the poll. By the identical token, Palin siphoned away simply sufficient conservative assist amongst Republicans to slide previous Begich. That’s why Democrats gained the seat.
Palin is working within the basic election for the complete time period this fall. However Alaska Survey Analysis polled Palin’s recognition with Alaskans at simply 31 %. That’s effectively under the rankings of President Biden and former President Trump. That might imply Palin is unelectable. And it’s potential Republicans may coalesce round Begich within the basic election.
In an interview, Palin characterised ranked-choice voting as a “newfangled, cockamamie system” — regardless that Alaska voters permitted the electoral methodology in a statewide poll.
It’s potential all of this says way more about Palin than GOP candidates at giant. However the sign from Alaska may point out issues Republicans have with a number of different candidates working for the Senate and in gubernatorial races this fall.
FORMER ALASKA GOV. SARAH PALIN KNOCKS RANKED-CHOICE VOTING AFTER ELECTION LOSS
Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has expressed concern in regards to the viability of some Republicans on the poll for the Senate this fall.
“Candidate high quality has loads to do with the end result,” stated McConnell in August. “I feel there’s most likely a better probability the Home flips than the Senate.”
McConnell is teeing up a protection ought to sub-par candidates forestall Republicans from claiming the Senate. However McConnell has additionally inoculated himself from criticism that his unfavorable remarks about candidates additionally don’t backfire.
GOP Senate nominees Mehmet Oz from Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker from Georgia and Rep. Ted Budd, R-N.C., have been a part of a candidate occasion McConnell hosted. A political motion committee linked to McConnell has reserved just below $100 million in marketing campaign money to be spent in Senate contests in these three states alone.
However McConnell is a realist. He’s famous how Republicans whiffed in bids to grab management of the Senate in 2010 and 2012 on account of inferior GOP candidates.
“How may you screw this up? It’s really potential,” stated McConnell about Republican Senate prospects this fall. “We’ve had some expertise with that previously.”
Purple states like Pennsylvania or Arizona could also be laborious for broken candidates to win. It could be extra believable {that a} extra “standard” Republican may win in these states. That’s very true if there’s an try to flip a state like Arizona.
Nonetheless, one might be able to glean one other nugget from the “candidate high quality.”
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Watch to see how controversial Republican candidates carry out this fall in battleground races. If these candidates who some have written off as “not prepared for primetime” prevail, that would say loads about former President Trump’s probabilities in 2024. It could additionally encourage Republican candidates with comparable political silhouettes to run for the Home and Senate subsequent time.
That stated, Republican candidate high quality is likely one of the greatest points on this yr’s midterm elections. And this may increasingly even be one of many few events the place the political dynamics of Alaska may shed a lightweight on a political pattern to observe within the Decrease 48.
Alaska
Alaska Legion Baseball hosts coaches clinic featuring MLB affiliates
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – Despite a snow-covered field just a few yards away, Anchorage youth still found a way to play ball in the halls of West Anchorage High School on Saturday.
Alaska Legion Baseball hosted another edition of its annual professional coaches clinic this past weekend, getting dozens of Anchorage children under the tutelage of Major League teachers.
“You have to have a foundation,” triple-A hitting coach Travis Denker said. “If you don’t, then you’re just going to be swinging and it won’t matter. I definitely love what I’ve seen so far.”
With the guidance of both current and former members of the Arizona Diamondbacks, the clinic focused on drills designed to improve hitting, fielding, and pitching. The four-day camp was open to individuals from as young as second grade up to the high school ranks.
“You can assess pretty quickly their level of aptitude or ability. When you’ve been coaching that long, you know what you need to say and what you need to show,” pitching coach and former MLB pitcher Jeff Bajenaru said.
“The great thing about baseball is you don‘t need to be the biggest, you don‘t need to be the strongest, and you don’t need to be the fastest,” former Diamondbacks assistant pitching coach Dan Carlson added. “There’s no ’one size fits all.’”
The clinic was originally started by 2017 World Series champion and longtime pitching coach Brent Strom, a man who has helped lead the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander to the Cy Young trophy in 2015 and 2019, respectively.
Strom also coached Charlie Morton and current New York Yankee Gerrit Cole to All-Star caliber seasons. He last coached with the Diamondbacks in 2024.
Playing in a state that is notoriously difficult in drawing attention to its athletes, the clinic was another opportunity to showcase Alaska’s ballpark skillset, building off the eye-catching performance that current Oregon Duck Coen Niclai put on last year at the same event.
“He is a guy that stood out last year for sure, not only just size and athleticism, but also how he could hit, how he could throw, how he could catch,” Carlson said. “I promise you, if there’s somebody I see here, I would pass it on to my scout friend at home in Arizona.”
Clinic staff are hopeful the event will continue next year. Interested athletes or parents are encouraged to keep an eye on the Alaska Legion Baseball website for updates and upcoming camps.
Denker also hosts an online coaching program available with a paid subscription on his website.
Copyright 2024 KTUU. All rights reserved.
Alaska
Alaska’s Brandon Pili picked up by Seattle Seahawks off waivers
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – The Seattle Seahawks have claimed Brandon Pili off of waivers, the team announced Monday.
The Alaskan defensive tackle was released by the Miami Dolphins Saturday before signing two days later with the franchise closest in proximity to his home state of Alaska.
Pili, 25, appeared in 12 games — including eight this year — in two seasons with the Dolphins, recording four tackles on the defensive line.
A former Dimond High School standout, Pili was an all-conference wrestler, track and field athlete, and of course, football player, where he went on to become the University of Southern California’s first-ever football letterman from Alaska, playing 52 games for the Trojans.
Undrafted in 2023, Pili made Miami’s final 53-man roster to become the 14th Alaskan to play in the NFL.
Alaska Sports Hall of Famer Reggie Tongue, of Fairbanks and Lathrop High fame, played defensive back for the Seattle Seahawks from 2000-2003.
Pili, at 6-foot-3 and 319 pounds, is currently listed as Seattle’s second-string nose tackle and is expected to practice this week if he clears a physical.
Pili joins a 4-5 Seahawks team that is 1.5 games out of first place in the NFC West. Seattle will visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
Copyright 2024 KTUU. All rights reserved.
Alaska
ANALYSIS: Alaska’s post-election review – what does it mean?
Two weeks ago, I published my predictions for the 2024 general election. You can find them here. It is time to review the actual election results and see where I was right and where I got it wrong.
1 – I predicted Donald Trump would win Alaska’s three electoral college votes and it wouldn’t be close. I was right. Based on the most recent unofficial results with 401 of 403 precincts reporting, Trump won by 55.5% to 40.43%. This prediction really wasn’t much of a stretch. Trump won Alaska the last two times he ran for president.
2 – I predicted Nick Begich would defeat Mary Peltola, but it would be a close election and, in a reverse RCV twist, Peltola could lose in an RCV runoff because of the campaign of a Democrat carpetbagger who lives outside the state, by the name of Eric Hafner.
My prediction was remarkably accurate. Begich beat Peltola by 49.45% to 45.45%. Although Begich is leading by a 4% margin, he failed to get the 50% +1 vote required by the crazy RCV system we use in this state. So, this race will go to an RCV automatic runoff.
Democrat Erich Hafner received almost 1% of the votes, which would have been enough to give Begich the race outright. Begich should easily win this contest, but whenever RCV comes into the picture, weird things can happen. Yet another reason to hate RCV, more on that later.
3 – I predicted Sarah Vance would win the State House District 6 race, but it would go to an RCV runoff because RCV permitted the continued participation of Republican Dawson Slaughter from Anchor Point. I was right on both accounts
Sarah Vance did win, but not with enough votes to win outright. This race will also go to an automatic RCV runoff. Vance should prevail in the runoff as she leads Brent Johnson by 47.69% to 42.85%, almost 5%. Dawson Slaughter received 9.26% of the votes. Most of his votes should go to Vance.
The voters have sent a message, let’s see if the politicians have heard it.
Slaughter’s continued participation in this race denied Sarah Vance an outright victory. Somebody in the GOP ought to pull Slaughter aside and explain to him how politics works. Slaughter just torpedoed his political career in the GOP. Republicans have long memories and many of them will hold a grudge against Slaughter if he runs in any future election. Vance should prevail in the RCV runoff, but the biggest loser in this race is not Brent Johnson, it is Dawson Slaughter’s political future.
4 – I predicted Ballot measure 1, which raises the minimum wage would pass, and voters would come to regret it. This issue was passed by a wide margin by voters believing they are voting for their own pay raise. They don’t realize that as employees become more expensive, employers find ways to work without them, like using more automation.
I was right on the first part of this prediction, and only time will tell if higher minimum wages results in fewer minimum wage workers in Alaska, like it has in California after they passed a similar measure.
5 – I predicted Ballot Measure 2, repealing RCV would also pass. Alaskans hate this voting system that was foisted off on us by outside interest groups and dark money. The issue of RCV caught our state unaware in 2020 when it originally and only barely passed, supported by large amounts of money from groups outside of our state. When Mary Peltola’s first election victory in 2022 occurred, it woke all Alaskans up to the flaws in the RCV system. Fortunately, because Ballot Measure 2 has passed repealing RCV, we will not have this fraudulent voting system in future elections. This should be a lesson for other states considering similar measures.
So, if I was right on these issues, where did I get it wrong? The only thing I missed was my prediction of high voter turnout. I predicted a high turnout in a presidential election year that would be in the high 60% range, approaching 70%. The actual turnout in House District 6 was only 50.12%.
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In the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, voter turnout in District 6 was 66.47% and 69.19%, respectively. How could we underperform by this wide of a margin in a very polarizing election year that should have meant more interest in the election? I believe that many voters were intimidated by the RCV process and didn’t vote. They chose not to participate because they were confused by how to vote and didn’t want to get it wrong. If this is correct, it is a big indictment of the confusing RCV process and future elections should see a big increase in participation.
I went 5 out of 6 in my predictions, but what does it all mean? There were decisive Republican victories both statewide and nationally. This election was a repudiation of Democrats and Democrat policies. Everyday Americans turned out in record numbers and rejected the woke ideology that the Democrats have based their governance on for the past four years.
Americans don’t want the weird policies that Democrats are trying to force on the country. They don’t want to be forced to take experimental injections in order to keep their jobs. They don’t want boys playing girls sports. They don’t want runaway inflation just because politicians in Washington and Juneau want to reward their political allies with never ending deficit spending.
This election was a massive repudiation of the Democrats, and they need to wake up to the fact that their policies and their party are not wanted by the vast majority of Americans. The voters have sent a message, let’s see if the politicians have heard it.
The views expressed here are those of Greg Sarber. Read more Sarber posts at his Seward’s Folly substack.
Click here to support the Alaska Watchman.
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