Southeast Alaska’s financial system noticed a large rebound in 2021 and has continued to get better from the pandemic this yr, however there’s concern that vanishing state jobs and an absence of housing may weigh on the continued restoration.

Let’s begin with the excellent news: 2020 was so unhealthy that almost something seems to be good by comparability. Not solely did the pandemic grind the financial system to a halt and crush the tourism sector — it was additionally one of many worst years for Southeast Alaska’s fishing trade on document.

The proprietor and director of Rain Coast Information, Meilani Schijvens, says it’s unattainable to think about a greater year-over-year restoration in jobs, wages and visitation.

“It’s so good to have the ability to watch the financial system bouncing again and see these job numbers coming again and people wages coming again. And there’s a lot positivity wanting ahead,” Schijvens stated in an interview on Monday.

Rain Coast Information’s newest annual report for the financial improvement group Southeast Convention, generally known as Southeast Alaska by the Numbers, was launched Tuesday on the primary day of the group’s annual assembly in Ketchikan.

Schijvens says that because the tourism season winds down, she’s anticipating the full variety of cruise passengers in Southeast Alaska to come back in at 1.05 million. That’s the fourth-highest quantity on document — and she or he says subsequent yr could possibly be a record-breaker.

“The cruise trade itself is saying to search for a season that’s much like that 2019 season — that was 1.33 million passengers,” she stated. “However we’re going to have extra ships and extra sailings, so I’m anticipating it to be in all probability our greatest season ever.”

One other spotlight is the development sector — and with federal infrastructure cash coming into Alaska following the passage of a bipartisan invoice final yr, Schijvens is anticipating one other huge yr for builders.

The mining sector grew slowly however steadily, including simply shy of 37 jobs final yr for a complete of 898. 

However one other key a part of the area’s useful resource trade struggled. Employment within the timber trade fell to its lowest level on document — simply 312 individuals work in timber felling and processing. That’s down greater than 90% from the trade’s peak in 1991. 

Schijvens factors to uncertainty in regards to the standing of the federal Roadless Rule — the Clinton-era logging restriction was lifted by the Trump administration in 2020, however the Biden administration introduced plans to revive it final yr. The report additionally notes Sealaska Corp.’s choice to transition away from old-growth logging early final yr.

However the shining star of the 2021 financial system was the seafood sector. It wasn’t precisely a banner yr for the trade — when it comes to the full weight harvested and the worth of the catch, final yr’s haul was simply over the 10-year common. However each of these metrics greater than doubled from 2020.

“It actually got here again and supported the financial system,” she stated. “Really, in 2021, our seafood sector was our primary wage supplier in Southeast Alaska. And that was for the primary time since 2015.”

That’s amongst non-public sector industries. The highest wage supplier for Southeast Alaskans was, as regular, the federal government — the general public sector supplied a couple of third of employees’ whole earnings in 2021.

However Schijvens says she’s nervous a couple of rising pattern: state jobs leaving the area or disappearing altogether.

“The primary merchandise of concern that I’ve is watching state jobs diminish in Southeast Alaska. Should you have a look at the final 10 years, state jobs in Southeast Alaska have decreased by 24%. That’s quite a lot of jobs,” she stated. “And people jobs are good-paying jobs with advantages connected to them.”

And he or she says Southeast is bearing a disproportionate share of the state job cuts beneath Gov. Mike Dunleavy. 

“After we have a look at beneath the Parnell and Walker administrations, these jobs had been actually simply going away. These had been a part of job cuts,” Schijvens stated. “And within the final couple of years, we’ve seen these jobs transferring to different elements of Alaska.”

In line with the report, state authorities have reduce 65% of the Division of Public Security jobs in Southeast Alaska and 62% from the Alaska Courtroom System. Jobs with the state training and transportation departments are down by about half, as are College of Alaska jobs within the area.

“We’ve acquired this actually robust financial restoration coming in Southeast Alaska, and that’s the one factor that if these cuts proceed, or one thing that I fear about can kind of derail that financial restoration,” Schijvens stated.

Complete employment in all sectors is down 12% from pre-pandemic ranges throughout the area as of this June — partially as a result of employers within the tourism sector can’t fill open jobs. Statewide, employment is down 6%, and throughout the nation, jobs are up 1% from earlier than the pandemic.

Schijvens says the dearth of accessible housing within the area is taking part in prominently within the labor scarcity.

“We’ve acquired this kind of labor-housing scarcity that we’re seeing throughout Southeast Alaska, and I’m placing them collectively, as a result of that’s how our enterprise leaders are describing them.”

Greater than 60% of enterprise leaders say rental and residential costs are too excessive for his or her employees, and the same fraction say there’s merely not sufficient houses available on the market. The shortages are most pronounced in Hoonah, Sitka, Ketchikan and Skagway, in accordance with the survey.

And building is just not assembly demand — Schijvens’ knowledge exhibits that the variety of housing models permitted and accomplished really fell by 19% final yr.

“We all know that the price of building has gone up. And so perhaps that has put individuals off, however we’re seeing very low constructing charges for houses throughout Southeast Alaska proper now,” she stated.

Regardless of the warning indicators, enterprise leaders are optimistic — 79% say they’ve a optimistic outlook for subsequent yr.