Alaska
Alaska House race in South Anchorage presents contrasts, despite common party affiliation • Alaska Beacon
Two Republican candidates with legislative experience present contrasting visions for representing a South Anchorage district.
Rep. Craig Johnson, a businessman who was first elected to the House in 2006 and currently chairs the powerful House Rules Committee, is being challenged by Chuck Kopp, who served in the House from 2017 to 2020 after retiring from a law enforcement career.
The matchup in House District 10, which encompasses the leafy Oceanview and Klatt neighborhoods, the Dimond Center – Alaska’s largest shopping mall — and other spaces, would not have been possible without the ballot initiative that ushered in ranked choice voting in Alaska. That initiative, in addition to authorizing a ranking system, mandated open primaries. Even though Kopp and Johnson were the only candidates on the primary election ballot, both advanced to the general election.
That contrasts with Kopp’s experience in 2020, when he was defeated in the primary by current Rep. Tom McKay, R-Anchorage. In the general election that followed that primary, voters narrowly approved the ranked-choice initiative.
Four years later, Kopp stands by his decision to be part of what was then a caucus of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
“The best solutions are never the gift of one party. And I say that as a proud Republican,” he said.
“As a legislator elected by the citizens of District 10, I will always be on a team to best serve and represent the district,” he added. “I will not hesitate to put people first over the party.”
Whatever coalition he joins should be consistent with his “Republican values” of low taxes, infrastructure investment, resource development and responsible budgets. “And I want an organization that is not going to go into the ditch over a social agenda,” he said. “I don’t like it when I see the legislative process hijacked.”
To Johnson, Kopp’s party-line crossing approach is a negative.
“You look at who supports him and who supports me — you can see a stark difference. Who influences him, versus the kind of people that want to see me get reelected,” Johnson said. There is a “very clear difference,” he said. “It’s just very difficult to differentiate when you’re sitting with an R by your name.”
Those ties are evident in the primary election results, in which Kopp won 60.5% of the vote, Johnson said, noting the low turnout of 17.8%. “We’ve got a Republican who’s got mostly Democratic support in Chuck, and the Democrats turned out quite heavily and the Republicans didn’t,” he said.
Johnson pointed out that the current Republican-dominated House majority does include rural Democrats. But he does not favor more evenly balanced bipartisan coalitions, such as the nine-Democratic, eight-Republican majority caucus in the state Senate.
“I would not be interested in joining a caucus that put committee chairs in positions to pass or hold up things that I feel I am philosophically opposed to,” he said. “I will not compromise my ideals and morals for power.”
For Kopp, the overarching issue in the election – and for Alaska – is the state’s continued outmigration and shrinking working-age population. That loss is the result of the state’s failure to invest in itself, he said.
“You also have to look at the cost of doing nothing, and the cost of doing nothing has been catastrophic for our state,” he said.
There are, for example, about 70 Alaska state trooper positions currently unfilled, along with about 50 Anchorage police positions. Also affected are basic services like road maintenance, with departments short-staffed, and education, he said. “We have school districts that are starting late because they can’t fill the teacher positions,” said.
The event that crystallized this concern — and his decision to run against Johnson — was the House majority’s refusal to consider the Senate-approved measure, Senate Bill 88, that would have resurrected a defined-benefit pension system for public employees.
Legislation passed in 2005 established a new 401(k)-style defined contribution system for what were then new public employees, but in recent years there have been calls to return to the defined-benefit pension systems like those used in the past.
Kopp favored the Senate’s bill, which he said crafted a reasonable approach that would have been both less costly than past public employee defined-benefits plans and less costly than doing nothing.
“Absolutely, I’m in favor of that defined-benefit plan,” he said. The plan that the Senate bill crafted would have been less expensive than past public-employees’ defined-benefit plans, and a worthwhile investment in the workforce, he said.
Kopp is particularly attuned to the issue because of his law-enforcement experience, which included a stint as police chief in Kenai. As of now, Alaska police officers are working in a very difficult profession without the promise of “anything meaningful waiting for them” at retirement, he said. He also noted that state employees are generally not eligible for Social Security benefits.
Johnson, as Rules chair, blocked the Senate’s defined-benefit bill from reaching the House floor. He is proud of that action and highlights it on his campaign website as one of his key legislative accomplishments.
The Senate’s plan was too expensive, Johnson said.
“For the first 10 years, it’s not a bad system because not many people have retired,” he said, referring to actuarial information that was presented to lawmakers. “But once you get past 10 years and 15, 20, 25, it turns into billions of dollars and we’re going to end up like we were before we got rid of it, where we had a $9 billion in indebtedness and our credit rating was affected. Our ability to bond was affected. So, it could have a huge impact on future generations,” he said.
Johnson opposes any return to a defined-benefit program and does not believe retirement benefits attract workers. In the case of police officers, he pointed to departments in other states that do offer defined-benefit pensions but have trouble attracting applicants, nonetheless.
“Retirement is not how you attract people. You attract people with work environments and the opportunities to advance and job satisfaction. And it’s very difficult to be a policeman right now,” he said.
Rather than return to a defined-benefit system, the state can increase pay and possibly increase the amount it contributes to employee retirement accounts, he said. And Anchorage’s municipal government has the option of creating its own benefit system without placing the burden on the state, he said.
Both Kopp and Johnson favor an increase in the Base Student Allocation, the per-student level of state education funding granted to school districts.
Johnson said he was instrumental in crafting a bill, which ultimately was passed by the Legislature, that would have increased the BSA. After Gov. Mike Dunleavy vetoed the bill, to the dismay of many educators and students, Johnson was among the legislators who voted against a veto override. Johnson said continuing efforts to increase the BSA over the long term would have simply been vetoed again; instead, lawmakers were at least able to secure a one-time increase of $680 per student.
Kopp said he would have voted to override the veto, which was sustained by one vote.
People in the district are extremely concerned about education funding and worried about state support that has atrophied, he said. “They were alarmed when one of our local elementary schools was on the chopping block,” he said.
Klatt Elementary School, which is in his House district, was one of six schools that the Anchorage School District in 2022 considered for closure for budget problems.
The problems facing education in the district and in Alaska more generally are tied in part to the loss of qualified workers – teachers in this case, Kopp said. “My district really cares about the recruitment and retention of that workforce,” he said.
Both candidates cite public safety as a top concern for their district. That category includes homelessness in Anchorage, which both candidates characterized as a complex problem that defies easy solutions.
Both candidates also cite a need to make energy supplies in Anchorage and the Cook Inlet region more dependable, an issue of growing concern as the flow of natural gas used for electricity and heat has become less secure.
While Kopp supports retention of the ranked choice voting system, Johnson will be supporting the ballot measure to overturn it.
Johnson believes the ranked-choice system encourages some candidates to hold back on campaigning prior to the primary election to save their money for the general election. “You know, I did some of that and it didn’t pan out particularly well,” he said.
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FAIRBANKS, Alaska (KTUU/KTVF) – As winter weather comes to Alaska, road conditions have become hazardous in some locations, and the Alaska State Troopers (AST) have advice on staying safe while driving in icy or snowy conditions, as well as traveling in cold weather.
According to AST Sgt. Brian Haley, troopers spend a good deal of time dealing with vehicle collisions during the winter, mostly fender benders at intersections. But, he said, “It could be the single vehicle that goes into the ditch on the Richardson Highway. It could be the multi-car collision that takes place on the Mitchell Expressway at University.”
Winter hazards affect “the way that people are driving and it affects the way that our vehicles are going to react on the road. So, the first thing is, is we all need to be mindful that our vehicles are going to act a little bit differently out there,” he said.
The trooper advises drivers to increase their stopping distance as they approach stop signs, traffic signals and other vehicles.
“Really give yourself that extra space, and slow down way before you even think that you’re going to need it,” Haley said, emphasizing that vehicles take longer to stop in winter conditions.
When negotiating a curve, either on highways or in neighborhoods, he said drivers will also want to slow down and “anticipate ‘What am I going to do if and when my car starts to slide?’” so as to be safe around other vehicles and pedestrians.
Increased darkness represents another hazard during the winter months, and Haley recommends that drivers keep their headlights on at all times, and that pedestrians wear visible colors when walking outside.
“Make sure that when you’re taking your kids to school in the morning that you’re carrying flashlights and have reflective items on you to make yourself more visible to that general motoring public,” he explained, adding that wildlife also present a danger in the dark.
“As we get more and more snowpack, those animals, specifically moose, they’re going to start meandering onto the roads because it’s easier for them to walk. And that big dark creature with a big black background at night, those aren’t a good combination,” he said.
Haley urged those driving, regardless of the distance they are traveling, to pack winter gear and ways to keep warm in case their car breaks down.
“That inside of that cab is going to get extremely cold, extremely fast. If you’re just there and your T-shirt and your gym shorts, it’s going to be really bad for you, and it could actually be life-threatening,” he added.
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High school
Swimming
At Bartlett High School pool
Team scores
Girls
1. Eagle River High School, 131. 2 Juneau-Douglas High School, 116. 3. Dimond High, 47.
Boys
1. West Valley High School, 69. 2. Colony High School, 63. 3. Ketchikan High School, 62.
Individual
Girls 200-yard medley relay
1. Juneau-Douglas High School (Valerie Peimann, Kennedy Miller, Amy Liddle, Lily Francis), 1:46.03; * NEW STATE RECORD (previous record 1:46.75, Juneau-Douglas, 2014) 2. Eagle River High School, 1:46.40; 3. West Valley High School, 1:51.44.
Boys 200-yard medley relay
1. West Valley High School (Quenton Rodgers, Cedar Robichaud, Zen Schaetzle, Haoran Zhang), 1:35.44; 2. Juneau-Douglas High School, 1:38.68; 3. Dimond High School, 1:39.15.
Girls 200-yard freestyle
1. Trembath, Lelaina, Eagle River, 1:54.68; 2. Trembath, Sophia, Eagle River, 1:56.06; 3. Price, Abigail, Kenai, 1:56.36.
Boys 200-yard freestyle
1. Fazio, Blake, Chugiak, 1:39.44 * NEW STATE RECORD (previous record 1:39.78, Talon Lindquist, Kodiak, 2016); 2. Hubert, Cody, Kodiak, 1:42.20; 3. Tow, Logan, Petersburg, 1:43.48.
Girls 200-yard IM
1. Woodward, Reese, Eagle River, 2:06.02; 2. Liddle, Amy, Juneau-Douglas, 2:06.43; 3. Heaphy, Anna, Eagle River, 2:12.39.
Boys 200-yard IM
1. Shockley, Nate, Eagle River, 1:58.24; 2. Harold, Gavin, Ketchikan, 1:59.98; 3. Martens, Zach, Sitka, 2:00.45.
Girls 50-yard freestyle
1. Francis, Lily, Juneau-Douglas, 24.31; 2. Kass, Maizy, Dimond, 24.47; 3. Gust, Keira, Eagle River, 24.70.
Boys 50-yard freestyle
1. Kopp, Clint, Dimond, 20.58; 2. Schaetzle, Zen, West Valley, 21.05; 3. Gates, Iver, Colony, 21.30.
Girls 1-meter diving
1. Denmon, Kensley, Service, 458.25; 2. Wallstrum, Claire, Colony, 455.10; 3. Krozel, Lyza, Colony, 418.20.
Boys 1-meter diving
1. Williams, Reubin, Service, 445.35; 2. Woodward, Liam, Ketchikan, 420.30; 3. Gose, Colter, Wasilla, 380.35.
Girls 100-yard butterfly
1. Woodward, Reese, Eagle River, 55.74; 2. Liddle, Amy, Juneau-Douglas, 57.07; 3. Benner, Kylie, Palmer, 58.69.
Boys 100-yard butterfly
1. Fazio, Blake, Chugiak, 49.79; 2. Schaetzle, Zen, West Valley, 49.93; 3. Kopp, Clint, Dimond, 50.46.
Girls 100-yard freestyle
1. Peimann, Valerie, Juneau-Douglas, 52.26; 2. Trembath, Sophia, Eagle River, 53.23; 3. Francis, Lily, Juneau-Douglas, 54.17.
Boys 100-yard freestyle
1. Tow, Logan, Petersburg, 46.54; 2. LaBoucane, Beck, Colony, 47.10; 3. Gates, Iver, Colony, 47.35.
Girls 500-yard freestyle
1. Trembath, Lelaina, Eagle River, 5:05.50; 2. Cooper, Hannah, Colony, 5:15.87; 3. Rumph, Caitlyn, Eagle River, 5:19.91.
Boys 500-yard freestyle
1. Hubert, Cody, Kodiak, 4:40.90; 2. Shockley, Nate, Eagle River, 4:50.13; 3. Martens, Zach, Sitka, 4:52.17.
Girls 200-yard freestyle relay
1. Eagle River High School (Reese Woodward, Keira Gust, Anna Heaphy, Sophia Trembath), 1:37.51; 2. South Anchorage High School, 1:40.85; 3. Dimond High School, 1:41.24.
Boys 200-yard freestyle relay
1. Dimond High School (Clint Kopp, Creed Cvancara, Andy Zhang, Dax O’Brien), 1:27.08; 2. West Valley High School, 1:27.70; 3. Colony High School, 1:27.88.
Girls 100-yard backstroke
1. Gust, Keira, Eagle River, 58.43; 2. Fleming, Taryn, Sitka, 59.36; 3. Cooper, Hannah, Colony, 59.40.
Boys 100-yard backstroke
1. LaBoucane, Beck, Colony, 52.55; 2. Kiessling, Liam, Juneau-Douglas, 53.20; 3. Rodgers, Quenton, West Valley, 54.65.
Girls 100-yard breaststroke
1. Peimann, Valerie, Juneau-Douglas, 1:04.85; 2. Brooks, Anna, Service, 1:06.06; 3. Tow, Lexie, Petersburg, 1:07.33.
Boys 100-yard breaststroke
1. Dash, Evan, Ketchikan, 59.30; 2. Fencil, Griffin, South Anchorage, 1:00.44; 3. Robichaud, Cedar, West Valley, 1:00.99.
Girls 400-yard freestyle relay
1. Juneau-Douglas High School (Amy Liddle, Lily Francis, Kaelyn Szefler, Valerie Peimann), 3:35.63; 2. Eagle River High School, 3:41.58; 3. Robert Service High School, 3:46.85.
Boys 400-yard freestyle relay
1. Sitka High School (Tommy McCarthy, James Nellis, Zach Martens, Corin Colliver), 3:12.86; 2. Ketchikan High School, 3:14.48; 3. Colony High School, 3:15.31.
• • •
Hockey
Tuesday
North Pole 10, Tri-Valley 1
West 7, Eagle River 1
Wednesday
Chugiak 7, Bartlett 3
South 11, Service 4
Thursday
Houston 3, Eagle River 2
Wasilla 7, Delta 2
Colony 6, Kenai Central 3
North Pole 6, Palmer 0
West Valley 3, Soldotna 1
Palmer 6, Lathrop 2
Friday
Delta 4, Kenai Central 4
Soldotna 5, Houston 3
North Pole 2, Wasilla 1
West Valley 1, Palmer 0
Chugiak 3, Dimond 1
Saturday
Kodiak 5, Delta 1
North Pole 7, Colony 0
West Valley 5, Houston 2
• • •
Volleyball
Tuesday
Service 3, East 1 (26-24, 19-25, 25-22, 25-10)
Chugiak 3, Eagle River 0 (25-17, 25-22, 27-25)
South 3, West 0 (25-13, 25-3, 25-5)
Dimond 3, Bartlett 0 (25-6, 25-14, 25-17)
Susitna Valley 3, Lumen Christi 0 (25-16, 25-9, 25-10)
Wednesday
Sitka 3, Mt. Edgecumbe 1 (23-25, 28-26, 28-26, 25-12)
East 3, West 1 (25-20, 25-25, 17-25, 25-22)
Thursday
Wrangell 2, Haines 0 (25-17, 25-23)
Homer 3, Mountain City Christian 2 (20-25,18-25, 25-20, 25-14,15-13)
Wrangell 2, Hoonah 0
Cordova 3, Ninilchik 0 (25-15, 25-13, 25-17)
Nikiski 3, Redington 0 (25-7, 25-10, 25-11)
Cordova 3, Cook Inlet Academy 2 (25-19, 25-22, 23-25, 20-25, 15-12)
South 3, Service 0
Lathrop 3, West Valley 1 (25-14, 25-14, 18-25, 25-18)
Nikiski 3, Homer 1 (20-25, 25-23, 25-20, 25-14)
Sitka 3, Mt. Edgecumbe 0 (25-21, 25-19, 25-22)
Chugiak 3, Dimond 1 (25-16, 25-21, 16-25, 25-23)
Wrangell 2, Petersburg 0 (25-19, 25-22)
Hoonah 2, Craig 0
Friday
Skagway 2, Petersburg 0
Wrangell 2, Metlakatla 0
Petersburg 2, Craig 0
Mountain City Christian 3, Redington 0
Homer 3, Grace Christian 0
Wrangell 2, Skagway 0
Nome-Beltz 3, Kotzebue 0
Akula Elitnaurvik 2, Ket’acik and Aapalluk Memorial 0
Tanalian 2, Kalskag 0
Sand Point 3, King Cove 0
Seward 3, Mountain City Christian 1
Dimond 3, East 1
Wrangell 2, Klawock 0
Nunamiut 2, Nuiqsut Trapper 0
Nelson Island 2, Ket’acik and Aapalluk Memorial 0
Petersburg 2, Haines 0
Nunamiut 2, Harold Kaveolook 0
Sand Point 3, King Cove 0
Juneau-Douglas 3, Ketchikan 0
Cook Inlet Academy 2, Cordova 0
Harold Kaveolook 2, Nuiqsut Trapper 0
Shishmaref 3, Aniguiin 0
White Mountain 3 Anthony Andrews 0
Homer 3, Seward 1
Barrow 3, Nome-Beltz 2
Wrangell 2, Craig 0
Nunamiut 3, Harold Kaveolook 0
Akiuk Memorial 2, Ket’acik and Aapalluk Memorial 0
Nunamiut 3, Nuiqsut Trapper 0
Harold Kaveolook 3, Nuiqsut Trapper 1
Metlakatla 2, Hoonah 1
Aniak 2, Kalskag 1
James C Isabell 3, Anthony Andrews 0
Hoonah 2, Klawock 0
Saturday
Petersburg 2, Metlakatla 0
Nuiqsut Trapper 3, Harold Kaveolook 0
Cook Inlet Academy 2, Ninilchik 0
Kenai Central 3, Homer 0
Hoonah 2, Skagway 1
Ket’acik and Aapalluk Memorial 2, Kongiganak 0
Nunamiut 3, Harold Kaveolook 0
Petersburg 2, Klawock 0
Nunamiut 3, Nuiqsut Trapper 0
Kalskag 2, Tuluksak 1
White Mountain 3, James C Isabell 0
Shishmaref 3, Brevig Mission 0
Hoonah 2, Petersburg 1
Nunamiut 2, Harold Kaveolook 0
White Mountain 3, Anthony Andrews 0
Juneau-Douglas 3, Ketchikan 0
Shishmaref 3, Aniguiin 0
Nunamiut 2, Nuiqsut Trapper 0
Nuiqsut Trapper 2, Harold Kaveolook 0
Hoonah 2, Haines 1
Nunamiut 2, Nuiqsut Trapper 0
• • •
College
Volleyball
Thursday
UAA 3, Simon Fraser 2 (19-25, 20-25, 25-18, 25-20, 15-13)
Western Washington 3, UAF 0 (25-17, 25-20, 25-20)
Saturday
UAF 3 Simon Fraser 1 (25-18, 25-17, 20-25, 25-16)
UAA vs. Western Washington (Late)
• • •
Hockey
Tuesday
UAF 2, Quinnipiac 2 (OT)
Saturday
UAF vs. Simon Fraser (Late)
• • •
Women’s basketball
Friday
UAA 107, Northwest 82
Saturday
UAA 100, Northwest 57
• • •
Men’s basketball
Wednesday
UAA 92, Pacific Union College 59
Thursday
UAA 110, Pacific Union College 70
Friday
UAA 85, Evergreen State 58
Saturday
UAA 80, Evergreen State 48
• • •
NAHL
Friday
Anchorage Wolverines 5, Springfield Jr. Blues 3
Saturday
Anchorage Wolverines vs. Springfield Jr. Blues (Late)
Nine seismic stations in Alaska are set to go dark this month, leaving tsunami forecasters without important data used to determine whether an earthquake will send a destructive wave barreling toward the West Coast.
The stations relied on a federal grant that lapsed last year; this fall, the Trump administration declined to renew it. Data from the stations helps researchers determine the magnitude and shape of earthquakes along the Alaskan Subduction Zone, a fault that can produce some of the most powerful quakes in the world and put California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii at risk.
Losing the stations could lead Alaska’s coastal communities to receive delayed notice of an impending tsunami, according to Michael West, the director of the Alaska Earthquake Center. And communities farther away, like in Washington state, could get a less precise forecast.
“In sheer statistics, the last domestic tsunami came from Alaska, and the next one likely will,” he said.
It’s the latest blow to the U.S.’ tsunami warning system, which was already struggling with disinvestment and understaffing. Researchers said they are concerned that the network is beginning to crumble.
“All the things in the tsunami warning system are going backwards,” West said. “There’s a compound problem.”
The U.S. has two tsunami warning centers — one in Palmer, Alaska, and the other in Honolulu — that operate around-the-clock making predictions that help emergency managers determine whether coastal evacuations are necessary after an earthquake. The data from Alaska’s seismic stations has historically fed into the centers.
Both centers are already short-staffed. Of the 20 full-time positions at the center in Alaska, only 11 are currently filled, according to Tom Fahy, the union legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization. In Hawaii, four of the 16 roles are open. (Both locations are in the process of hiring scientists, Fahy said.)
Additionally, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has decreased funding for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which pays for the majority of states’ tsunami risk reduction work. The agency provided $4 million in 2025 — far less than the $6 million it has historically offered.
“It’s on life support,” West said of the program.
On top of that, NOAA laid off the National Weather Service’s tsunami program manager, Corina Allen, as part of the Trump administration’s firing of probationary workers in February, according to Harold Tobin, the Washington state seismologist. Allen, who had recently started at the agency, declined to comment via a spokesperson for her new employer, the Washington State Department of Natural Resources.
These recent cuts have played out amid the Trump administration’s broader efforts to slash federal spending on science and climate research, among other areas. NOAA fired hundreds of workers in February, curtailed weather balloon launches and halted research on the costs of climate and weather disasters, among other cuts.
Most of the seismic stations being shut down in Alaska are in remote areas of the Aleutian Islands, West said. The chain extends west from the Alaskan Peninsula toward Russia, tracing an underwater subduction zone. KHNS, a public radio station in Alaska, first reported the news that the stations would be taken offline.
A NOAA grant for about $300,000 each year had supported the stations. The Alaska Earthquake Center requested new grant funding through 2028, but it was denied, according to an email between West and NOAA staffers that was viewed by NBC News.
Kim Doster, a NOAA spokeswoman, said the federal agency stopped providing the money in 2024 under the Biden administration. In the spring, the University of Alaska Fairbanks ponied up funds to keep the program going for another year, believing that the federal government would ultimately cover the cost, said Uma Bhatt, a University of Alaska Fairbanks professor and associate director of the research institute that administered the grant. But new funds never materialized.
“The loss of these observations does not prevent the Tsunami Warning Center from being able to carry out its mission,” Doster said. “The AEC [Alaska Earthquake Center] is one of many partners supporting the National Weather Service’s tsunami operations, and NWS continues to use many mechanisms to ensure the collection of seismic data across the state of Alaska.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
West said the Alaska Earthquake Center provides the majority of data used for tsunami warnings in the state. The grant that supported the nine seismic stations also funded a data feed with information from the center’s other sensors, according to West. The national tsunami warning centers will no longer have direct access to the feed.
West said the stations on the Aleutian Islands cover a huge geographic range.
“There’s nothing else around,” he said. “It’s not like there’s another instrument 20 miles down the road. There’s no road.”
The plan is to abandon the stations later this month and leave their equipment in place, West added.
Tobin, in Washington state, said he worries that the closures “could delay or degrade the quality of tsunami warnings.”
“This is a region that’s sparsely monitored. We kind of need to have a stethoscope on this region,” he said, adding: “These programs are in the background until a big, terrible event happens.”
The Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone is one of the most active faults in the world and has produced significant tsunamis in the past. In 1964, a tsunami produced by a magnitude-9.2 earthquake killed 124 people, including 13 in California and five in Oregon, according to NOAA. Most of the California deaths were in Crescent City, where a 21-foot wave destroyed 29 city blocks, according to the city’s website.
Tsunami experts said the stations in the Aleutian Islands are critical in quickly understanding nearby earthquakes. The closer a quake is to a sensor, the less uncertainty about a subsequent tsunami.
NOAA’s tsunami warning centers aim to put out an initial forecast within five minutes, West said, which is critical for local communities. (A strong earthquake in the Aleutian Islands could send an initial wave into nearby Alaskan communities within minutes.) The only data available quickly enough to inform those initial forecasts comes from seismic signals (rather than tide gauges or pressure sensors attached to buoys).
The warning centers then put out a more specific forecast of wave heights after about 40 minutes. Daniel Eungard, the tsunami program lead for the Washington Geological Survey, said that not having the Alaska sensors would create more uncertainty about the heights of waves expected, complicating decisions about whether to evacuate along the Washington coastline.
“We try not to over-evacuate,” he said, adding that it costs time, money and trust if warnings prove unnecessary.
Over the last year, the national tsunami warning centers have had their hands full. A magnitude-7.0 earthquake near Cape Mendocino, California, triggered tsunami alerts along the state’s coast in December. In July, a magnitude-8.8 quake off Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula prompted a widespread alert along the U.S. West Coast. The peninsula is just west of the Aleutian Islands.
NOAA helped build many of the seismic stations that have been part of the Alaska Earthquake Center’s network. But West said the agency has decreased its support over the past two decades; nine NOAA-built stations were decommissioned in 2013.
“It’s now or never to decide whether or not NOAA is part of this,” he said. “What I really want to do is spark a discussion about tsunami efforts in the U.S. and have that not be triggered by the next devastating tsunami.”
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