Sports
Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks
How much has the outlook for the college football season changed since the preseason?
It may not feel like a lot, but The Athletic’s consensus midseason national championship pick received zero votes two months ago in the preseason, and the Heisman Trophy favorite is now a running back from a Group of 5 team.
In August, we surveyed 28 of The Athletic’s college football writers and editors for their preseason national title, Playoff and Heisman predictions. After seven eventful weeks of the regular season, we surveyed 30 writers and editors for updated thoughts on how the 2024 college football season will play out. Here are the results — and how opinions have changed.
Who will win the national championship?
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
36.7% |
57.1% |
|
|
6.7% |
10.7% |
|
|
3.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.3% |
28.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
Fifteen of our 30 voters predict that Texas, the top-ranked team in the AP poll, will win its first national championship since 2005 — a big change after the Longhorns received zero votes in the preseason. Ohio State, our preseason favorite with more than half of the votes in August, still comes in second with 11 votes despite its loss last week to Oregon, which received just two votes after getting three in the preseason. Clearly, most of our staff believes the Buckeyes are capable of getting revenge in the Big Ten title game and beyond.
Clemson and Georgia rounded out our national championship picks with one vote apiece. We asked one voter for each team to explain their choice:
Why Texas?
The Longhorns have been the most complete team in the country this season, ranking 11th in yards per play on offense and first in yards per play allowed on defense. They dominated Michigan on the road, they dominated rival Oklahoma in Dallas, and they have a chance to earn a statement win back home vs. Georgia this week. They also have depth, with the offense not skipping a beat when Arch Manning had to replace starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for two weeks, and it doesn’t even feel like they’ve hit their ceiling yet. — Matt Brown
GO DEEPER
No. 1 Texas hasn’t peaked yet. What happens when it does?
Why Ohio State?
The Buckeyes were my preseason pick, and it’s hard to move off that after they played what was essentially a draw with another top-five team on the road. I would like to see more from Ohio State’s supposedly vaunted defense, but facing Oregon could be a pivot point where defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and the Buckeyes get a better idea of how they need to play against elite competition. The loss of left tackle Josh Simmons is worrisome. Maybe I’ll feel different if Texas womps Georgia on Saturday. I still think Ryan Day and Ohio State complete the mission. — Ralph Russo
Why Oregon?
We were all curious about how Oregon would handle the moment in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, and boy did the Ducks live up to the hype. Dan Lanning’s team got its signature win and officially has everyone’s attention as a frontrunner to pull this off. Yes, it’s hard to pick against Texas, given how the Longhorns have played thus far. But Dillon Gabriel has the experience Oregon needs down the stretch, and the Ducks’ schedule sets up nicely for them to win the Big Ten and earn a coveted first-round bye. — Grace Raynor
GO DEEPER
Oregon’s epic win a testament to Dan Lanning’s elite talent-stacking
Why Georgia?
Talent and continuity win out. No team is elite this year, but Georgia isn’t far from it. Even with their flaws, the Bulldogs are a great bet. I can’t believe I’m the only one who picked them. Games are won on the line of scrimmage, and Texas may be the only team that can rival the Bulldogs’ fronts on both sides of the ball. Carson Beck still can play his way to QB1 in the NFL draft next year, and if he does, it’ll be because of his ability and not because his receivers made plays for him. Plus, he has a solid run game supporting him. — David Ubben
Why Clemson?
It’s hard to blame anyone who closed the door on taking Clemson seriously after Georgia hit the after-burners in the season opener, but the Tigers have cruised since then thanks to a deep defense, a bruising workhorse back in Phil Mafah and steady play from quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has thrown just one interception since Malaki Starks’ highlight-reel pick in Week 1. With tighter turnarounds and less certain matchups than its four-team predecessor, the 12-team Playoff is going to reward multi-dimensional teams that know how to peak in December. For all the concerns about the ceiling lowering on Dabo Swinney’s program in recent years, those are two areas in which you can still count on Clemson. — Eric Single
What does our projections model say?
Ohio State is still on top of the national championship race in Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projections model, winning the national title in 21 percent of our simulations. The Buckeyes are followed by Georgia (16 percent), Texas (15 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Penn State (10 percent), Alabama (8 percent), Miami (5 percent) and Clemson (5 percent).
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Texas, Oregon at top; Indiana moves into bracket
Who will lose in the national title game?
Not only is Texas our most popular national championship pick, but it’s also our most popular runner-up. Twenty-six of 30 voters picked the Longhorns to get to the national title game in Atlanta, with 11 of those voters calling for a Texas loss.
Including the one championship vote for Clemson above, our staff voted for only five teams to appear in the national title game. Texas vs. Ohio State (16) is the most common matchup with more than half the votes, while Oregon vs. Texas (six) is the only other pairing to receive more than two votes.
National title game matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
|
Ohio State vs. Texas |
18 |
|
Oregon vs. Texas |
6 |
|
Georgia vs. Ohio State |
2 |
|
Georgia vs. Texas |
2 |
|
Clemson vs. Oregon |
1 |
|
Georgia vs. Oregon |
1 |
Who we’re picking to make the Playoff
Even with half the season remaining, there’s not a lot of variety in our predictions. Only 18 teams received at least one vote to make the 12-team Playoff, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State and Miami going 30-for-30. Oregon surprisingly was left off one ballot but is still viewed as almost a lock, along with Georgia (29 votes) and Clemson (28). Three people picked Boise State to earn a first-round bye — remember, there are five automatic bids and the byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily all four Power 4 conference champions.
Alabama (24), Iowa State (22) and Notre Dame (20) appeared on at least two-thirds of ballots. And shout out to Indiana, which appeared on three ballots in Curt Cignetti’s first season — after surely not being considered on any in the preseason.
The two teams that have plummeted from the Playoff race are Utah (71.4 percent of ballots in the preseason) and Florida State (67.9 percent), which are nowhere to be found on ballots now.
GO DEEPER
Which college football teams’ Playoff odds have changed the most at midseason?
Who will earn automatic Playoff bids?
All percentages are the share of our staff’s votes, not odds of winning. Find full Playoff projection and conference title odds based on our model here.
ACC
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
7.1% |
|
|
36.7% |
35.7% |
|
|
0.0% |
46.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
After five ACC teams received conference championship votes in the preseason, only two did at midseason: Miami (19 of 30) and Clemson (11). Nobody opted for a sleeper pick like Pitt (6-0 overall) or SMU (5-1).
Big 12
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
46.7% |
10.7% |
|
|
30.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
23.3% |
25.0% |
|
|
0.0% |
57.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
Utah was the pick of more than half of our staff in the preseason but has fallen off to zero with two losses and quarterback Cam Rising out for the season. At the top now are the two surprise undefeated teams, Iowa State and BYU. But Kansas State is still lurking right behind them.
Big Ten
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
85.7% |
|
|
33.3% |
14.3% |
Ohio State and Oregon were the only teams to receive votes in the preseason, and they’re still the only teams to receive votes now, even though Penn State and Indiana are undefeated.
And even though Oregon beat Ohio State last week, two-thirds of our staff likes the Buckeyes’ chances if they get to Indianapolis.
SEC
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
96.7% |
14.3% |
|
|
3.3% |
82.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
Texas has become the runaway favorite, receiving all but one vote to win the SEC championship at midseason. The other went to Georgia, which visits the Longhorns on Saturday. Alabama beat Georgia, but it didn’t garner a single SEC championship vote after its loss to Vanderbilt and a close call against South Carolina.
Group of 5
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
Conf
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
100.0% |
17.9% |
MWC |
|
|
0.0% |
39.3% |
AAC |
|
|
0.0% |
21.4% |
CUSA |
|
|
0.0% |
10.7% |
SBC |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
SBC |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
MWC |
All 30 voters picked Boise State to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in tailback Ashton Jeanty and lost only by three points at Oregon. They have a pivotal game next week at UNLV, which is also in the mix from the Mountain West.
Army, Navy and Liberty are the three other undefeated teams. Army and Navy both have a game against Notre Dame to impress the selection committee, while Liberty continues to have a quiet season against one of the nation’s weakest schedules, which makes it a long shot despite continuing to win.
Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
| Player | Team | Pos | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ashton Jeanty |
RB |
40.0% |
|
|
Cam Ward |
QB |
30.0% |
|
|
Travis Hunter |
WR/CB |
16.7% |
|
|
Dillon Gabriel |
QB |
13.3% |
Eight players received votes in the preseason, and that number is down to just four. The favorite to win the award in December, at 12 votes out of 30, is Jeanty, who also topped our midseason straw poll showing how our staff would vote right now. Jeanty has 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through six games. If he keeps up that pace, it may be hard to deny him.
A pair of quarterbacks for undefeated teams in Cam Ward (nine votes) and Gabriel (four votes) make the list, in addition to a handful of votes going to Hunter (five votes), Colorado’s two-way star.
(Top photos: Gregory Shamus and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
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The New England Patriots continue to roll, handling their AFC East rival New York Jets, 27-14, on “Thursday Night Football.”
New England extended its lengthy win streak to eight games, improving to 9-2 on the season. Meanwhile, the Jets’ brief win streak, after starting the season 0-7, has come to a close.
Heading into this game, the Patriots were expected to dominate the Jets. While the scoreboard didn’t say so in the end, their rookie running back certainly provided the fireworks.
Drake Maye of the New England Patriots looks to pass during the first half against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on Nov. 13, 2025 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
TreVeyon Henderson, who had a breakout game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week with 147 rushing yards and two long touchdown runs, added three more touchdowns to his first-year stat line in this victory.
He was the only Patriots player to find the end zone, starting with the team’s 13-play, 69-yard drive that ended with his entire offensive line pushing him over the goal line to tie the game at seven apiece.
On the Patriots’ next drive, Henderson rushed in from seven yards out to give the Patriots a 14-7 lead to end the first half.
PATRIOTS DRAW PRAISE WITH STORMY UNIFORM DEBUT AGAINST JETS
New England started to pull away after quarterback Drake Maye, an MVP hopeful who had yet another great performance, put together chunk completions to set up an eventual touchdown pass to Henderson, who found himself wide open in the end zone.
Henderson finished the game with 62 rushing yards on 19 carries, while hauling in five catches for 31 yards.
Meanwhile, Justin Fields and the Jets’ offense struggled in yet another outing despite a great 14-play opening drive that ended with the quarterback rushing it in himself.
TreVeyon Henderson of the New England Patriots rushes for a touchdown in front of Isaiah Oliver #26 of the New York Jets during the first half against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on Nov. 13, 2025 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images)
Fields was coming off a rough game against the Cleveland Browns, though the Jets were able to win thanks to two special teams scores. He threw for only 54 yards with a 60.4 quarterback rating.
Fields was 15-of-26 for 116 yards in this game with a touchdown pass on a broken play to John Metchie III that made it 21-14 in the third quarter. But there were more negative moments than positive for the Jets, including a fumble lost on a low snap in the fourth quarter while the Jets were down just a touchdown.
The Patriots were able to run the fourth-quarter clock out, and give the home crowd what they were hoping for in Mike Vrabel’s first year as a head coach — a winning season.
There is still more work to do, but nine wins put the Patriots above .500.
TreVeyon Henderson of the New England Patriots scores a touchdown during the second quarter against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on Nov. 13, 2025 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
Looking more into the box score, Maye was an efficient 25-of-34 for 281 yards with his one touchdown pass to Henderson. Stefon Diggs also led the way with nine catches for 105 yards, a game high, while Mack Hollins and Hunter Henry both caught four passes.
For the Jets, Metchie was the leading receiver with 45 yards on three grabs, while Breece Hall had 58 rushing yards on 14 carries. Fields had 67 yards on 11 runs.
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THURSDAY’S RESULTS
Quarterfinals
DIVISION I
#1 Harvard-Westlake d. #9 Long Beach Poly, 25-13, 21-25, 22-25, 25-11, 15-11
#12 Bishop Montgomery d. #4 West Ranch, 23-25, 23-25, 25-19, 25-18, 15-9
#3 Santa Margarita d. #6 Coronado, 25-21, 25-20, 25-17
#2 Temecula Valley d. #10 Bakersfield Centennial, 25-17, 22-25, 25-19, 25-23
DIVISION II
#1 Liberty d. #9 Arroyo Valley, 25-20, 25-19, 25-20
#12 La Canada d. #13 Ventura, 17-25, 25-15, 25-21, 23-25, 15-10
#3 Cypress d. #6 Scripps Ranch, 20-25, 21-25, 25-15, 26-24, 15-13
#7 Carlsbad d. #15 Dana Hills, 25-14, 25-17, 22-25, 18-25, 15-13
DIVISION III
#1 Academy of Our Lady of Peace d. #8 Royal, 25-21, 25-11, 25-22
#4 Santa Fe Christian d. #5 Patrick Henry, 25-13, 25-7, 25-16
#3 Mission Vista d. #6 Ontario Christian, 25-19, 19-25, 25-13, 21-25, 15-7
#2 Frontier d. #7 Chadwick, 25-20, 25-18, 35-23
DIVISION IV
#1 Nipomo d. #8 Grant, 24-26, 25-22, 27-25, 25-21
#12 Capistrano Valley Christian d. #13 West Valley, 25-13, 25-12, 25-22
#3 Granada Hills d. #5 LA University, 25-23, 25-17, 25-22
#2 Mammoth d. #10 Rock Academy, 25-20, 25-12, 25-21
DIVISION V
#8 Panorama d. #1 East Valley, 25-23, 20-25, 21-25, 25-21, 15-12
#4 Elsinore d. #5 Artesia, 21-25, 26-24, 25-17, 25-19
#11 Nogales d. #3 O’Farrell Charter, 3-2
#2 Morro Bay d. #10 South El Monte, 25-10, 25-21, 25-18
SATURDAY’S SCHEDULE
SEMIFINALS
(Matches at 6 p.m. unless noted)
OPEN DIVISION
#5 Marymount at #1 Sierra Canyon
#3 Torrey Pines at #2 Mater Dei
DIVISION I
#12 Bishop Montgomery at #1 Harvard-Westlake
#3 Santa Margarita at #2 Temecula Valley
DIVISION II
#12 La Canada at #1 Bakersfield Liberty
#7 Carlsbad at #3 Cypress
DIVISION III
#4 Santa Fe Christian at #1 Academy of Our Lady of Peace
#3 Mission Vista at #2 Bakersfield Frontier
DIVISION IV
#12 Capistrano Valley Christian at #1 Nipomo
#3 Granada Hills at #2 Mammoth
DIVISION V
#8 Panorama at #4 Elsinore
#11 Nogales at #2 Morro Bay
Note: Finals (all divisions) Nov. 18 at higher seeds.
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Former NFL star Cam Newton had a message for the Grambling State and Bethune-Cookman college football programs in the latest episode of his podcast after a brawl occurred among players from each team over the weekend.
The halftime melee resulted in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) handing out suspensions for 27 players, including three who were suspended for two games. Each program received thousands of dollars in fines as well.
Then-Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) walks on the field during the second half against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 28, 2021. (Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports)
Newton said on “4th & 1” that Historical Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) were “set back” because of the fighting that occurred on the field.
“I despise the actions … I am extremely displeased with what took place. Why? It’s because make no mistake about it — I’ve spoken at length about equal opportunity,” Newton said. “We are sitting up here trying to get more access, more visibility, to amplify the platform of HBCUs. No matter if you in the MEAC, the SWAC, the SIAC, the OVC — or whatever conference you’re in — if you’re a representation of Blackness and Black culture, you should look at this and say to yourself, ‘This set us back.’”
Newton wondered what if the brawl took place on a major network that aired college football games and what the conversation would be around HBCU programs.
He added that, overall, the image was damaged as schools are trying to grow in terms of name, image and likeness deals and looking for sponsors.
Former NFL quarterback Cam Newton watches a game between the Howard Bison and Florida A&M Rattlers in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Dec. 16, 2023. (Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports)
NCAA PUTS MICHIGAN STATE FOOTBALL ON 3 YEARS OF PROBATION, VACATES 14 WINS
The former Carolina Panthers quarterback star also took issue with Grambling State head coach Mickey Joseph’s initial comments after the brawl. Joseph initially said the school wasn’t going to tolerate “disrespect” and they’re “going to meet disrespect with disrespect.”
Joseph apologized and backtracked from his comments, but it still didn’t sit well with Newton.
“I can forgive you for what you said, I can never forget what you said,” Newton said. “It’s almost like, what are you apologizing for? Are you apologizing because someone above you said, ‘That’s not a good look and you gotta apologize for that.’ Or, are you apologizing because that’s how you really feel?
“Anybody in the SWAC, MEAC, SIAC, CIAA, OVC, I’m ticked off because it set us back, man. It set us back.”
The SWAC admonished the schools and the players that took part in the fight.
“We’re extremely disappointed by the events that transpired during halftime of the Bethune-Cookman at Grambling State football game,” SWAC Commissioner Dr. Charles McClelland said in a statement. “Acts of that nature have zero place in the Southwestern Athletic Conference and intercollegiate athletics.
Detail view of a penalty flag during a football game on Nov. 7, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
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“The Conference Office has and will continue to enforce a zero-tolerance policy for all acts deemed to be unsportsmanlike and contrary to the high standard of good sportsmanship we expect from all individuals associated with the athletics programs within our league.”
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