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Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks

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Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks

How much has the outlook for the college football season changed since the preseason?

It may not feel like a lot, but The Athletic’s consensus midseason national championship pick received zero votes two months ago in the preseason, and the Heisman Trophy favorite is now a running back from a Group of 5 team.

In August, we surveyed 28 of The Athletic’s college football writers and editors for their preseason national title, Playoff and Heisman predictions. After seven eventful weeks of the regular season, we surveyed 30 writers and editors for updated thoughts on how the 2024 college football season will play out. Here are the results — and how opinions have changed.

Who will win the national championship?

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

50.0%

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0.0%

36.7%

57.1%

6.7%

10.7%

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3.3%

0.0%

3.3%

28.6%

0.0%

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3.6%

Fifteen of our 30 voters predict that Texas, the top-ranked team in the AP poll, will win its first national championship since 2005 — a big change after the Longhorns received zero votes in the preseason. Ohio State, our preseason favorite with more than half of the votes in August, still comes in second with 11 votes despite its loss last week to Oregon, which received just two votes after getting three in the preseason. Clearly, most of our staff believes the Buckeyes are capable of getting revenge in the Big Ten title game and beyond.

Clemson and Georgia rounded out our national championship picks with one vote apiece. We asked one voter for each team to explain their choice:

Why Texas?

The Longhorns have been the most complete team in the country this season, ranking 11th in yards per play on offense and first in yards per play allowed on defense. They dominated Michigan on the road, they dominated rival Oklahoma in Dallas, and they have a chance to earn a statement win back home vs. Georgia this week. They also have depth, with the offense not skipping a beat when Arch Manning had to replace starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for two weeks, and it doesn’t even feel like they’ve hit their ceiling yet. — Matt Brown

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No. 1 Texas hasn’t peaked yet. What happens when it does?

Why Ohio State?

The Buckeyes were my preseason pick, and it’s hard to move off that after they played what was essentially a draw with another top-five team on the road. I would like to see more from Ohio State’s supposedly vaunted defense, but facing Oregon could be a pivot point where defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and the Buckeyes get a better idea of how they need to play against elite competition. The loss of left tackle Josh Simmons is worrisome. Maybe I’ll feel different if Texas womps Georgia on Saturday. I still think Ryan Day and Ohio State complete the mission. — Ralph Russo

Why Oregon?

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We were all curious about how Oregon would handle the moment in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, and boy did the Ducks live up to the hype. Dan Lanning’s team got its signature win and officially has everyone’s attention as a frontrunner to pull this off. Yes, it’s hard to pick against Texas, given how the Longhorns have played thus far. But Dillon Gabriel has the experience Oregon needs down the stretch, and the Ducks’ schedule sets up nicely for them to win the Big Ten and earn a coveted first-round bye. — Grace Raynor

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Oregon’s epic win a testament to Dan Lanning’s elite talent-stacking

Why Georgia?

Talent and continuity win out. No team is elite this year, but Georgia isn’t far from it. Even with their flaws, the Bulldogs are a great bet. I can’t believe I’m the only one who picked them. Games are won on the line of scrimmage, and Texas may be the only team that can rival the Bulldogs’ fronts on both sides of the ball. Carson Beck still can play his way to QB1 in the NFL draft next year, and if he does, it’ll be because of his ability and not because his receivers made plays for him. Plus, he has a solid run game supporting him. — David Ubben

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Why Clemson?

It’s hard to blame anyone who closed the door on taking Clemson seriously after Georgia hit the after-burners in the season opener, but the Tigers have cruised since then thanks to a deep defense, a bruising workhorse back in Phil Mafah and steady play from quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has thrown just one interception since Malaki Starks’ highlight-reel pick in Week 1. With tighter turnarounds and less certain matchups than its four-team predecessor, the 12-team Playoff is going to reward multi-dimensional teams that know how to peak in December. For all the concerns about the ceiling lowering on Dabo Swinney’s program in recent years, those are two areas in which you can still count on Clemson. — Eric Single

What does our projections model say?

Ohio State is still on top of the national championship race in Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projections model, winning the national title in 21 percent of our simulations. The Buckeyes are followed by Georgia (16 percent), Texas (15 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Penn State (10 percent), Alabama (8 percent), Miami (5 percent) and Clemson (5 percent).

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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Texas, Oregon at top; Indiana moves into bracket

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Who will lose in the national title game?

Not only is Texas our most popular national championship pick, but it’s also our most popular runner-up. Twenty-six of 30 voters picked the Longhorns to get to the national title game in Atlanta, with 11 of those voters calling for a Texas loss.

Including the one championship vote for Clemson above, our staff voted for only five teams to appear in the national title game. Texas vs. Ohio State (16) is the most common matchup with more than half the votes, while Oregon vs. Texas (six) is the only other pairing to receive more than two votes.

National title game matchups

Matchup Votes

Ohio State vs. Texas

18

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Oregon vs. Texas

6

Georgia vs. Ohio State

2

Georgia vs. Texas

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2

Clemson vs. Oregon

1

Georgia vs. Oregon

1

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Who we’re picking to make the Playoff

chart visualization

Even with half the season remaining, there’s not a lot of variety in our predictions. Only 18 teams received at least one vote to make the 12-team Playoff, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State and Miami going 30-for-30. Oregon surprisingly was left off one ballot but is still viewed as almost a lock, along with Georgia (29 votes) and Clemson (28). Three people picked Boise State to earn a first-round bye — remember, there are five automatic bids and the byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily all four Power 4 conference champions.

Alabama (24), Iowa State (22) and Notre Dame (20) appeared on at least two-thirds of ballots. And shout out to Indiana, which appeared on three ballots in Curt Cignetti’s first season — after surely not being considered on any in the preseason.

The two teams that have plummeted from the Playoff race are Utah (71.4 percent of ballots in the preseason) and Florida State (67.9 percent), which are nowhere to be found on ballots now.

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Which college football teams’ Playoff odds have changed the most at midseason?

Who will earn automatic Playoff bids?

All percentages are the share of our staff’s votes, not odds of winning. Find full Playoff projection and conference title odds based on our model here.

ACC

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Team

  

Midseason

  

Preseason

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63.3%

7.1%

36.7%

35.7%

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0.0%

46.4%

0.0%

7.1%

0.0%

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3.6%

After five ACC teams received conference championship votes in the preseason, only two did at midseason: Miami (19 of 30) and Clemson (11). Nobody opted for a sleeper pick like Pitt (6-0 overall) or SMU (5-1).

Big 12

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

46.7%

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10.7%

30.0%

0.0%

23.3%

25.0%

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0.0%

57.1%

0.0%

7.1%

Utah was the pick of more than half of our staff in the preseason but has fallen off to zero with two losses and quarterback Cam Rising out for the season. At the top now are the two surprise undefeated teams, Iowa State and BYU. But Kansas State is still lurking right behind them.

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Big Ten

Team

  

Midseason

  

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Preseason

  

66.7%

85.7%

33.3%

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14.3%

Ohio State and Oregon were the only teams to receive votes in the preseason, and they’re still the only teams to receive votes now, even though Penn State and Indiana are undefeated.

And even though Oregon beat Ohio State last week, two-thirds of our staff likes the Buckeyes’ chances if they get to Indianapolis.

SEC

Team

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

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96.7%

14.3%

3.3%

82.1%

0.0%

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3.6%

Texas has become the runaway favorite, receiving all but one vote to win the SEC championship at midseason. The other went to Georgia, which visits the Longhorns on Saturday. Alabama beat Georgia, but it didn’t garner a single SEC championship vote after its loss to Vanderbilt and a close call against South Carolina.

Group of 5

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

Conf

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100.0%

17.9%

MWC

0.0%

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39.3%

AAC

0.0%

21.4%

CUSA

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0.0%

10.7%

SBC

0.0%

7.1%

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SBC

0.0%

3.6%

MWC

All 30 voters picked Boise State to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in tailback Ashton Jeanty and lost only by three points at Oregon. They have a pivotal game next week at UNLV, which is also in the mix from the Mountain West.

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Army, Navy and Liberty are the three other undefeated teams. Army and Navy both have a game against Notre Dame to impress the selection committee, while Liberty continues to have a quiet season against one of the nation’s weakest schedules, which makes it a long shot despite continuing to win.

Who will win the Heisman Trophy?

Player Team Pos Votes

Ashton Jeanty

RB

40.0%

Cam Ward

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QB

30.0%

Travis Hunter

WR/CB

16.7%

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Dillon Gabriel

QB

13.3%

Eight players received votes in the preseason, and that number is down to just four. The favorite to win the award in December, at 12 votes out of 30, is Jeanty, who also topped our midseason straw poll showing how our staff would vote right now. Jeanty has 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through six games. If he keeps up that pace, it may be hard to deny him.

A pair of quarterbacks for undefeated teams in Cam Ward (nine votes) and Gabriel (four votes) make the list, in addition to a handful of votes going to Hunter (five votes), Colorado’s two-way star.

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(Top photos: Gregory Shamus and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

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Russell Wilson escalates feud with Sean Payton, labels Broncos coach ‘classless’

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Russell Wilson escalates feud with Sean Payton, labels Broncos coach ‘classless’

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Russell Wilson and Sean Payton spent just one NFL season together, but tension lingered after a rocky year.

And it appears the tension that built up from that tumultuous stretch continues to linger.

Wilson’s interview on the “Bussin’ With the Boys” podcast, recorded before last month’s Super Bowl between Seattle and New England, recently resurfaced. 

In the interview, Wilson doubled down on his October comment labeling Payton “classless,” saying he felt slighted by his former coach’s remarks.

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Head coach Sean Payton of the Denver Broncos talks to quarterback Russell Wilson on the sideline during an NFL preseason football game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium Aug. 11, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. (Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

“[When] you’ve been on the same side or this and that, and I got the same amount of rings as you got, meaning Sean, right?” said Wilson, who won a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks as Payton did coaching for the New Orleans Saints. 

“I got a lot of respect for him as a play-caller, this and that, but to take a shot, I don’t like. I don’t think it’s necessary, you know, I mean, especially when I’m not even on your own team anymore. So, for me, there’s a point in time where you have to, I’ve realized, I’ve stayed quiet for so long. There’s a there’s a time and place where I’m not.

“I know who I am as a competitor, as a warrior, as a champion, too, and, you know, I’ve beaten Sean, too. You know, like we’ve been on the same place and the same thing. And so, it’s not a matter of disrespect. Just don’t disrespect me.”

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Sean Payton and Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos during an a game against the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High Nov. 19, 2023, in Denver, Colo. (Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

After a rocky one-year stint with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024, Wilson joined the New York Giants last offseason. However, he was relegated to a backup role after just three games.

Rookie Jaxson Dart quickly showed promise once he had the chance to start, but his season was briefly derailed by injury. Jameis Winston — not Wilson — stepped in for Dart in a handful of games. Dart threw three touchdowns in a Week 7 matchup with the Broncos, nearly pulling off an upset in what was eventually a close loss.

After the game, Payton said Dart provided a “spark” to the Giants’ offense.

“I was talking to [Giants owner] John Mara not too long ago, and I said, ‘We were hoping that that change would have happened long after our game,’” Payton said.

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The New York Giants’ Russell Wilson attempts to escape a sack by Dallas Cowboys defensive end James Houston (53) in the first half of a game Sept. 14, 2025, in Arlington, Texas.  (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Payton also said the Broncos would have faced less of a challenge had Wilson been under center.

“Classless … but not surprised,” Wilson responded in a social media post. “Didn’t realize you’re still bounty hunting 15+ years later though the media.”

Despite last season’s struggles and chatter about his football future, Wilson does not appear ready to call it quits in 2026.

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“I wanna play a few more years for sure,” he said. “I think, for me, I’ve always had the vision of getting to 40, at least. I think the game is different. Quarterbacks, we get hit. It’s not, you know, we get hit hard, but … there’s certain rules. I mean, back in the day when I started, bro, it was you just get [clobbered]. 

“I mean, so I feel like the game allows you to, you know, live a little longer, I guess. I feel healthy. I feel great. But I think, more than anything else is, do you love the game? Do you love studying? Do you love the passion for it all? Do you love the process? Do you love the practice? Do you love — everybody loves the winning part of it, but it’s process. There’s a journey that you got to be obsessed with. And that part I’m obsessed with.”

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Fatigue a factor as early matches begin at Indian Wells

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Fatigue a factor as early matches begin at Indian Wells

The early rounds of the BNP Paribas Open began Wednesday, with top seeds slated to start play Friday during the 12-day ATP and WTPA Master 1000 tournament.

A busy stretch of the tennis season reaches another gear at Indian Wells Tennis Garden, the second largest outdoor tennis stadium in the world.

While many consider it the “fifth Grand Slam” because of its elite player field, amenities and equal prize money for men and women, professionals acknowledge the tournament is part of a stressful stretch on the tennis calendar.

Indian Wells is followed by the Miami Open, another two-week Master 1000 tournament. The tour stops are known as the “Sunshine Double.”

Some players made the short trip from Indian Wells to Las Vegas this past weekend to participate in the MGM Grand Slam, an exhibition designed to help players ramp up for back-to-back tournaments.

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American Reilly Opelka, a 6-foot–11 pro, said managing fatigue after a series of tournaments before hitting Indian Wells has altered his practice and play in exhibition matches, including a loss to 19-year-old Brazilian Joao Fonseca in Las Vegas.

“Normally in any kind of competition, you get excited and play with a pressure point … but you don’t feel this when you are practicing,” Opelka said.

“I was trying to feel like this a few days ago while practicing with … [Tommy Paul,] but instead we got tired and hungry. … That usually doesn’t happen. We just decided to stop and go to eat somewhere.”

Paul said despite the decision to cut practice short, he feels fresh for the upcoming events.

“I started the year pretty well and for Americans, we are excited for the Sunshine Double,” Paul said.

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Casper Rudd lost to Opelka during the first round of the Las Vegas exhibition. The Norwegian also lost a week ago during the first round of the Acapulco Open, falling to Chinese qualifier Yibing Wu in straight sets.

Rudd said he felt “extremely tired” after the Australian Open in January.

Rancho Palo Verdes resident Taylor Fritz, ranked No. 7 in the world, said the best way to prepare yourself for grueling tour schedule is “putting [in] the time, work and repetition.”

“… Be there, be focused on the quality that you are doing,” said Fritz, a 28-year-old who won the Indian Wells title in 2022.

While some players are guarding against burnout, others struggled to even reach California. Some players who live in Dubai, including Russians Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, have to contend with closed airspace triggered by the U.S. and Israel bombing Iran.

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The ATP announced Wednesday that, “the vast majority of players who were in Dubai have successfully departed today on selected flights.”

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Law firm fighting for women’s sports in SCOTUS battle comments on ruling possibly impacting SJSU trans lawsuit

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Law firm fighting for women’s sports in SCOTUS battle comments on ruling possibly impacting SJSU trans lawsuit

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A law firm leading the charge in the ongoing Supreme Court case over trans athletes in women’s sports has responded after a federal judge suggested the case’s ruling could impact a separate case involving a similar issue. 

Colorado District Judge Kato Crews deferred ruling in motions to dismiss former San Jose State volleyball co-captain Brooke Slusser’s lawsuit against the California State University (CSU) system until after a ruling in the B.P.J. v. West Virginia Supreme Court case, which is expected to come in June. 

Slusser filed the lawsuit against representatives of her school and the Mountain West Conference in fall 2024 after she allegedly was made to share bedrooms and changing spaces with trans teammate Blaire Fleming for a whole season without being informed that Fleming is a biological male. 

 

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Meanwhile, the B.P.J. case went to the Supreme Court after a trans teen sued West Virginia to block the state’s law that prevents males from competing in girls’ high school sports. 

The Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) is the primary law firm defending West Virginia in that case at the Supreme Court, and has now responded to news that Slusser’s lawsuit could be affected by the SCOTUS ruling. 

“We hope the ruling from the Supreme Court will affirm that Title IX was designed to guarantee equal opportunity for women, not to let male athletes displace women and girl in competition. It is crucial that sports be separated by sex for not only the equal opportunity of women but for safety and privacy. Title IX should protect women’s right to compete in their own sports. Allowing men to compete in the female category reverses 50 years of advancement for women,” ADF Vice President of Litigation Strategies Jonathan Scruggs said.

Slusser’s attorney, Bill Bock of the Independent Council on Women’s Sports, expects a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the legal defense representing West Virginia, thus helping his case. 

(Left) Brooke Slusser (10) of the San Jose State Spartans serves the ball during the first set against the Air Force Falcons at Falcon Court at East Gym in Colorado Springs, Colorado, on Oct. 19, 2024. (Right) Blaire Fleming #3 of the San Jose State Spartans looks on during the third set against the Air Force Falcons at Falcon Court at East Gym on October 19, 2024 in Colorado Springs, Colorado. ( Andrew Wevers/Getty Images; Andrew Wevers/Getty Images)

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“We’re looking forward to the case going forward,” Bock told Fox News Digital. 

“I believe that the court is going to find that Title IX operates on the basis of biological sex, without regard to an assumed or professed gender, and so just like the congress and the members of congress that passed Title IX in 1972, allowed this specifically provided for in the regulations that there had to be separate men’s and women’s teams based on biological sex, I think the court is going to see that is the original meaning of the statute and apply it in that way, and I think it’s going to be a big win in women’s sports.”

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority appeared prepared to rule in favor of West Virginia after oral arguments on Jan. 13. 

Slusser spoke on the steps of the Supreme Court on Jan. 13 while oral arguments took place inside, sharing her experience with a divided crowd of opposing protesters. 

With Fleming on its roster, SJSU reached the 2024 conference final by virtue of a forfeit by Boise State in the semifinal round. SJSU lost in the final to Colorado State.

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Slusser went on to develop an eating disorder due to the anxiety and trauma from the scandal and dropped out of her classes the following semester. The eating disorder became so severe, that Slusser said she lost her menstrual cycle for nine months. Her decision to drop her classes resulted in the loss of her scholarship, and her parents said they had to foot the bill out of pocket for an unfinished final semester of college. 

President Donald Trump’s Department of Education determined in January that SJSU violated Title IX in its handling of the situation involving Fleming, and has given the university an ultimatum to agree to a series of resolutions or face a referral to the Department of Justice. 

Among the department’s findings, it determined that a female athlete discovered that the trans student allegedly conspired to have a member of an opposing team spike her in the face during a match. ED claims that “SJSU did not investigate the conspiracy, but later subjected the female athlete to a Title IX complaint for ‘misgendering’ the male athlete in online videos and interviews.”

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SJSU trans player Blaire Fleming and teammate Brooke Slusser went to a magic show and had Thanksgiving together in Las Vegas despite an ongoing lawsuit over Fleming being transgender. (Thien-An Truong/San Jose State Athletics)

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SJSU Athletic Director Jeff Konya told Fox News Digital in a July interview that he was satisfied with how the university handled the situation involving Fleming.

“I think everybody acted in the best possible way they could, given the circumstances,” Konya said. 

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