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Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks

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Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks

How much has the outlook for the college football season changed since the preseason?

It may not feel like a lot, but The Athletic’s consensus midseason national championship pick received zero votes two months ago in the preseason, and the Heisman Trophy favorite is now a running back from a Group of 5 team.

In August, we surveyed 28 of The Athletic’s college football writers and editors for their preseason national title, Playoff and Heisman predictions. After seven eventful weeks of the regular season, we surveyed 30 writers and editors for updated thoughts on how the 2024 college football season will play out. Here are the results — and how opinions have changed.

Who will win the national championship?

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

50.0%

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0.0%

36.7%

57.1%

6.7%

10.7%

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3.3%

0.0%

3.3%

28.6%

0.0%

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3.6%

Fifteen of our 30 voters predict that Texas, the top-ranked team in the AP poll, will win its first national championship since 2005 — a big change after the Longhorns received zero votes in the preseason. Ohio State, our preseason favorite with more than half of the votes in August, still comes in second with 11 votes despite its loss last week to Oregon, which received just two votes after getting three in the preseason. Clearly, most of our staff believes the Buckeyes are capable of getting revenge in the Big Ten title game and beyond.

Clemson and Georgia rounded out our national championship picks with one vote apiece. We asked one voter for each team to explain their choice:

Why Texas?

The Longhorns have been the most complete team in the country this season, ranking 11th in yards per play on offense and first in yards per play allowed on defense. They dominated Michigan on the road, they dominated rival Oklahoma in Dallas, and they have a chance to earn a statement win back home vs. Georgia this week. They also have depth, with the offense not skipping a beat when Arch Manning had to replace starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for two weeks, and it doesn’t even feel like they’ve hit their ceiling yet. — Matt Brown

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No. 1 Texas hasn’t peaked yet. What happens when it does?

Why Ohio State?

The Buckeyes were my preseason pick, and it’s hard to move off that after they played what was essentially a draw with another top-five team on the road. I would like to see more from Ohio State’s supposedly vaunted defense, but facing Oregon could be a pivot point where defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and the Buckeyes get a better idea of how they need to play against elite competition. The loss of left tackle Josh Simmons is worrisome. Maybe I’ll feel different if Texas womps Georgia on Saturday. I still think Ryan Day and Ohio State complete the mission. — Ralph Russo

Why Oregon?

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We were all curious about how Oregon would handle the moment in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, and boy did the Ducks live up to the hype. Dan Lanning’s team got its signature win and officially has everyone’s attention as a frontrunner to pull this off. Yes, it’s hard to pick against Texas, given how the Longhorns have played thus far. But Dillon Gabriel has the experience Oregon needs down the stretch, and the Ducks’ schedule sets up nicely for them to win the Big Ten and earn a coveted first-round bye. — Grace Raynor

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Oregon’s epic win a testament to Dan Lanning’s elite talent-stacking

Why Georgia?

Talent and continuity win out. No team is elite this year, but Georgia isn’t far from it. Even with their flaws, the Bulldogs are a great bet. I can’t believe I’m the only one who picked them. Games are won on the line of scrimmage, and Texas may be the only team that can rival the Bulldogs’ fronts on both sides of the ball. Carson Beck still can play his way to QB1 in the NFL draft next year, and if he does, it’ll be because of his ability and not because his receivers made plays for him. Plus, he has a solid run game supporting him. — David Ubben

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Why Clemson?

It’s hard to blame anyone who closed the door on taking Clemson seriously after Georgia hit the after-burners in the season opener, but the Tigers have cruised since then thanks to a deep defense, a bruising workhorse back in Phil Mafah and steady play from quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has thrown just one interception since Malaki Starks’ highlight-reel pick in Week 1. With tighter turnarounds and less certain matchups than its four-team predecessor, the 12-team Playoff is going to reward multi-dimensional teams that know how to peak in December. For all the concerns about the ceiling lowering on Dabo Swinney’s program in recent years, those are two areas in which you can still count on Clemson. — Eric Single

What does our projections model say?

Ohio State is still on top of the national championship race in Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projections model, winning the national title in 21 percent of our simulations. The Buckeyes are followed by Georgia (16 percent), Texas (15 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Penn State (10 percent), Alabama (8 percent), Miami (5 percent) and Clemson (5 percent).

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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Texas, Oregon at top; Indiana moves into bracket

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Who will lose in the national title game?

Not only is Texas our most popular national championship pick, but it’s also our most popular runner-up. Twenty-six of 30 voters picked the Longhorns to get to the national title game in Atlanta, with 11 of those voters calling for a Texas loss.

Including the one championship vote for Clemson above, our staff voted for only five teams to appear in the national title game. Texas vs. Ohio State (16) is the most common matchup with more than half the votes, while Oregon vs. Texas (six) is the only other pairing to receive more than two votes.

National title game matchups

Matchup Votes

Ohio State vs. Texas

18

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Oregon vs. Texas

6

Georgia vs. Ohio State

2

Georgia vs. Texas

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2

Clemson vs. Oregon

1

Georgia vs. Oregon

1

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Who we’re picking to make the Playoff

chart visualization

Even with half the season remaining, there’s not a lot of variety in our predictions. Only 18 teams received at least one vote to make the 12-team Playoff, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State and Miami going 30-for-30. Oregon surprisingly was left off one ballot but is still viewed as almost a lock, along with Georgia (29 votes) and Clemson (28). Three people picked Boise State to earn a first-round bye — remember, there are five automatic bids and the byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily all four Power 4 conference champions.

Alabama (24), Iowa State (22) and Notre Dame (20) appeared on at least two-thirds of ballots. And shout out to Indiana, which appeared on three ballots in Curt Cignetti’s first season — after surely not being considered on any in the preseason.

The two teams that have plummeted from the Playoff race are Utah (71.4 percent of ballots in the preseason) and Florida State (67.9 percent), which are nowhere to be found on ballots now.

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GO DEEPER

Which college football teams’ Playoff odds have changed the most at midseason?

Who will earn automatic Playoff bids?

All percentages are the share of our staff’s votes, not odds of winning. Find full Playoff projection and conference title odds based on our model here.

ACC

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Team

  

Midseason

  

Preseason

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63.3%

7.1%

36.7%

35.7%

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0.0%

46.4%

0.0%

7.1%

0.0%

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3.6%

After five ACC teams received conference championship votes in the preseason, only two did at midseason: Miami (19 of 30) and Clemson (11). Nobody opted for a sleeper pick like Pitt (6-0 overall) or SMU (5-1).

Big 12

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

46.7%

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10.7%

30.0%

0.0%

23.3%

25.0%

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0.0%

57.1%

0.0%

7.1%

Utah was the pick of more than half of our staff in the preseason but has fallen off to zero with two losses and quarterback Cam Rising out for the season. At the top now are the two surprise undefeated teams, Iowa State and BYU. But Kansas State is still lurking right behind them.

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Big Ten

Team

  

Midseason

  

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Preseason

  

66.7%

85.7%

33.3%

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14.3%

Ohio State and Oregon were the only teams to receive votes in the preseason, and they’re still the only teams to receive votes now, even though Penn State and Indiana are undefeated.

And even though Oregon beat Ohio State last week, two-thirds of our staff likes the Buckeyes’ chances if they get to Indianapolis.

SEC

Team

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

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96.7%

14.3%

3.3%

82.1%

0.0%

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3.6%

Texas has become the runaway favorite, receiving all but one vote to win the SEC championship at midseason. The other went to Georgia, which visits the Longhorns on Saturday. Alabama beat Georgia, but it didn’t garner a single SEC championship vote after its loss to Vanderbilt and a close call against South Carolina.

Group of 5

Team

  

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Midseason

  

Preseason

  

Conf

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100.0%

17.9%

MWC

0.0%

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39.3%

AAC

0.0%

21.4%

CUSA

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0.0%

10.7%

SBC

0.0%

7.1%

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SBC

0.0%

3.6%

MWC

All 30 voters picked Boise State to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in tailback Ashton Jeanty and lost only by three points at Oregon. They have a pivotal game next week at UNLV, which is also in the mix from the Mountain West.

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Army, Navy and Liberty are the three other undefeated teams. Army and Navy both have a game against Notre Dame to impress the selection committee, while Liberty continues to have a quiet season against one of the nation’s weakest schedules, which makes it a long shot despite continuing to win.

Who will win the Heisman Trophy?

Player Team Pos Votes

Ashton Jeanty

RB

40.0%

Cam Ward

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QB

30.0%

Travis Hunter

WR/CB

16.7%

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Dillon Gabriel

QB

13.3%

Eight players received votes in the preseason, and that number is down to just four. The favorite to win the award in December, at 12 votes out of 30, is Jeanty, who also topped our midseason straw poll showing how our staff would vote right now. Jeanty has 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through six games. If he keeps up that pace, it may be hard to deny him.

A pair of quarterbacks for undefeated teams in Cam Ward (nine votes) and Gabriel (four votes) make the list, in addition to a handful of votes going to Hunter (five votes), Colorado’s two-way star.

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(Top photos: Gregory Shamus and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

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American League stars outshine National League in 96th MLB All-Star game

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American League stars outshine National League in 96th MLB All-Star game

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The 2026 MLB All-Star Game arrived in Philadelphia with the feel of a 250th birthday bash for the United States, complete with plenty of red, white and blue and a roster full of stars who had earned their stripes.

But Citizens Bank Park, long known as a hitter-friendly backdrop, produced fewer fireworks than expected as the American League shut out the National League 4-0 in the 96th Midsummer Classic.

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A general view of Citizens Bank Park during the 96th MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard on, July 14, 2026, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease struck out the side in the first inning, setting the tone for a dominant AL pitching performance as 10 relievers helped finish a three-hitter in Tuesday night’s shutout of the NL.

New York Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger hit a two-run single and Ben Rice followed with an RBI single in the first against Cristopher Sánchez of the host Philadelphia Phillies.

Chicago White Sox infielder Miguel Vargas added an eighth-inning home run off the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Justin Wrobleski, who was pitching on his 26th birthday, for the game’s only extra-base hit. The AL won for the 18th time in 23 games and holds a 49-45-2 advantage overall.

Singles by Juan Soto in the fourth, Pete Crow-Armstrong in the eighth and Otto Lopez in the ninth were the only hits by the NL, which failed to advance a runner past first.

Pitchers combined for 27 strikeouts, 15 by AL hurlers.

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MLB ALL-STAR GAME SCARE AS RAYS SLUGGER JUNIOR CAMINERO EXITS AFTER TAKING 98 MPH FASTBALL TO HAND

Tampa Bay Rays’ Yandy Diaz loses control of the bat in the fifth inning during the MLB All-Star Game between the American League and National League on July 14, 2026, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Matt Rourke/AP)

Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, last year’s hero in the first-ever swing-off tiebreaker, led off for the NL. Schwarber replaced designated hitter Shohei Ohtani, who skipped the showcase to undergo a knee procedure ahead of the season’s second half.

Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber bats during the third inning of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on July 14, 2026. (Al Bello/Getty Images)

Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene and two New York Yankees, first baseman Ben Rice and Bellinger, gained American League starting spots because of injuries.

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Tampa Bay Rays’ Junior Caminero was hit on the outside of his left hand by a 97.6 mph sinker from St. Louis Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien in the third inning and immediately left the game. The 23-year-old, fourth in the major leagues with 28 home runs, stayed down for a few moments before he popped up and ran straight into the clubhouse. X-rays were negative.

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Players across the majors will have the day off Wednesday before the Phillies host the New York Mets on Thursday. Action across the rest of the league resumes Friday.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Spain delivers surprise rout of France, clinches berth into World Cup final

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Spain delivers surprise rout of France, clinches berth into World Cup final

In a World Cup boasting a galaxy of stars, a lunch-bucket team of blue-collar everymen may wind up outshining them all.

Spain clinched a berth to the final Tuesday by smothering France 2-0 at AT&T Stadium, running its unbeaten streak to 37 games while eliminating a team that had run roughshod through the tournament.

And it wasn’t even close. France came into the game with 16 goals, second only to Argentina in the tournament, then failed to put a shot on goal in the first 81 minutes.

It had Kylian Mbappé, who is tied with Lionel Messi for the scoring lead this summer and was the Golden Boot winner four years ago in Qatar. He was all but invisible until, frustrated, he felled Spanish keeper Unai Simón with a cheap shot in the final minutes, drawing a well-deserved yellow card.

France couldn’t even score into an open net, with Desire Doue lining a low shot right at a rapidly retreating Simón, who had come well off his line and left the goal unattended. For Simón, Tuesday’s clean sheet was his sixth in seven games in this tournament.

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Spain will meet the winner of Wednesday’s second semifinal between England and reigning champion Argentina on Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

France’s Kylian Mbappé reacts after losing to Spain during a World Cup semifinal in Arlington, Texas, on Tuesday.

(Julio Cortez / Associated Press)

“Whoever comes, comes,” teenage center back Pau Cubarsí said in Spanish. “I don’t think I want any of them. Let it be God’s will. We’re going to New York and then we’ll figure out who needs to come.”

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Winning with defense may not be attractive, but it’s certainly been effective. And for Spain, the approach certainly fits with its team-first mentality.

“There was some talk that our defense and goalkeeping weren’t up to par. But I think we’ve silenced a lot of critics,” Cubarsí said. “We’ve only conceded one goal and we’re in the final.

“This is a team effort, both those who play and those on the bench.”

Added right back Pedro Porro: “We’re just continuing to work with humility. We’ve been doing things right and building on our strengths. We’ve also been correcting the things we haven’t done well. We’re just taking it step by step.”

It wasn’t so much that France played poorly, although it did. It was that Spain forced it to play that way.

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France had never trailed in the tournament, but it fell behind in this one on Mikel Oyarzabal’s successful penalty shot in the 22nd minute. Lucas Digne was called for the foul when he chested down an errant pass from Spain’s Marc Cucurella on the edge of the 18-yard box, then reached out his left boot to control it, only to catch the leg of Spain’s Lamine Yamal who was charging in from the blind side.

Salvadoran referee Iván Barton immediately pointed to the spot and Oyarzabal stepped up and obliged, beating French keeper Mike Maignan into the side netting at the right post for his fifth goal of the tournament. The score was the first Maignan had allowed in the knockout rounds, breaking a 360-minute scoreless streak and it would be all Spain would need to get to the final for the first time since 2010, when it won its only World Cup.

Spain goalkeeper Unai Simon makes a save in front of France's Theo Hernandez during a World Cup semifinal.

Spain goalkeeper Unai Simón makes a save in front of France’s Theo Hernandez during a World Cup semifinal in Arlington, Texas, on Tuesday.

(Jessica Tobias / Associated Press)

Maignan didn’t do any better on the second shot he faced, this one coming 13 minutes into the second half when Porro came in alone on the keeper, then used his right foot to flick the ball by the goalkeeper to double Spain’s lead.

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“My son couldn’t come today because he’s feeling a little under the weather with a fever,” said Porro, who dedicated his goal to the boy. “It was a mix of emotions because he couldn’t be here, and then his dad scored a goal.

“I wanted to look out at the stands and the only people there were my partner, my father-in-law and my physical therapist.”

For Porro, the goal was a measure of redemption as well. There were doubters when coach Luis de la Fuente named him to the World Cup team and those critics grew louder when de la Fuente made him a starter.

But those critics fell notably silent Tuesday.

“I don’t have to prove anything to anyone,” Porro said. “Obviously, I never imagined — not even in my wildest dreams — that I’d be playing in this World Cup the way I am.

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Spain's Pedro Porro celebrates after beating France during a World Cup semifinal Tuesday in Arlington, Texas.

Spain’s Pedro Porro celebrates after beating France during a World Cup semifinal Tuesday in Arlington, Texas.

(Florencia Tan Jun / Getty Images)

“But it’s also thanks to my teammates, and thanks to the coach for the confidence he’s shown in me from the very beginning.”

Spain hasn’t lost a game in the knockout phase of a World Cup since 2006 — when it fell to France — playing to draws in the round of 16 in the past two tournaments before being eliminated both times on penalties. They didn’t let it come down to that this time.

“We’re in a final. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime experience,” said Cubarsí, 19. “Maybe I’m still too young for everything I’m going through right now. But soccer is something to be enjoyed. Opportunities will come your way if you’re willing to make sacrifices and all that.”

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For French coach Didier Deschamps, meanwhile, the loss marked his penultimate game with a team he’s taken to two World Cup finals in 15 years as coach. He had earlier announced he would be stepping aside after the tournament. Instead of capping raucous Bastille Day celebrations in France with a trip to the World Cup final, Deschamps and his squad will travel to Miami to play in the third-place game.

Some players knelt at the final whistle, head down, staring at the turf.

“There’s obviously a lot of disappointment,” Deschamps said. “The players are devastated because we had high hopes. Even so, we have to be realistic and acknowledge that today we were a step behind technically against a team that played very well.

“It’s our fault, first and foremost.”

Well, not really. The credit should go to Spain.

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Folarin Balogun admits that red-card reversal affected USA World Cup teammates: ‘A lot of outside noise’

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Folarin Balogun admits that red-card reversal affected USA World Cup teammates: ‘A lot of outside noise’

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The United States Men’s National Team had all the momentum when Folarin Balogun’s red card from the Round of 32 was suspended, giving him a chance to play in the Round of 16 — at least, that’s what American soccer fans thought.

The day before the USMNT’s Round of 16 game against Belgium, which Balogun was originally supposed to miss because of a red card in the previous game, FIFA ruled that he would be eligible.

The ruling added to what was already a huge controversy, as it was argued Balogun should not have been red-carded in the first place. Nonetheless, Balogun was active despite an appeal and strong reaction from Belgium.

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United States forward Folarin Balogun kicks the ball against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (David Gonzales)

However, it was hardly a needle-mover, as Belgium embarrassed the Stars and Stripes with a 4-1 win. If anything, the needle might have moved the wrong way, Balogun himself said.

“My initial reaction was I was happy to be back in the team, but when I kind of started to reflect, I knew it was going to cause a lot of controversy, and I could almost see within my teammates a bit of nerves, because it is something that is so unique,” Balogun told CBS on Tuesday.

“The closer we got to the game, I tried to just focus as best as I could, but it was difficult. A lot of outside noise and that’s hard to avoid.”

Balogun said the entire situation was “confusing,” as the team was initially practicing without him. But the team found out on the bus to practice that Balogun would be active.

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“Everybody was screaming and shouting,” Balogun said.

BELGIUM MANAGER PRAISES CLASSY GESTURE BY FOLARIN BALOGUN AFTER RED CARD CONTROVERSY: ‘I REALLY LIKED THAT’

Folarin Balogun of the U.S. celebrates scoring their first goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Santa Clara, California. (Phil Noble / Reuters via Imagn Images)

But that did not change the whirlwind of emotions, which may or may not have contributed to the loss.

“It’s more just being able to separate the emotion from the job at hand. We’re all professionals, so it’s not something I think was too difficult to be able to separate once we got over the initial announcement. You saw it was a difficult game against Belgium and that can kind of overshadow whether we were focused or not. From me being inside the camp and inside the setup, I know we had full concentration going into the game,” he said.

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President Donald Trump admitted to calling FIFA President Gianni Infantino to ask for a review of the red card.

“All I did was, I asked for a review, because I didn’t think it was a foul,” Trump said. “And again, I’m good at this stuff. I didn’t think it was a foul. I thought it was two great athletes who crashed into each other and got entangled. That was not a guy punching somebody in the face or anything that would be different.

Team USA striker Folarin Balogun celebrates scoring a goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

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“I think it’s a terrible… if they wouldn’t allow a top player, maybe the best, maybe among the best on the team, to play, I think it would have had a big stain. I relayed it. I didn’t tell him what to do. I don’t believe he made the decision. I think it was a committee that made the decision, and they made the right decision because, No. 1, it wasn’t a foul, and you want to see a game with your best players.”

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Belgium was knocked out by Spain in the quarterfinals, and Spain will face France in the first semifinal match Tuesday in Atlanta.

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