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NCAA Tournament bracket picks: CJ Moore picks UConn over Purdue for the title

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NCAA Tournament bracket picks: CJ Moore picks UConn over Purdue for the title

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Since Florida repeated as national champs in 2007, no defending champion has advanced past the Sweet 16. That ends this year.

 

Connecticut is the most complete team in college basketball, and it’s going to end that streak and repeat as national champions. That was my pre-bracket prediction and I’m sticking with it, but the selection committee really has me uneasy about that prediction. The Huskies received no favors as the top overall seed. You could argue that UConn has the toughest path to Phoenix as any of the top seeds. Iowa State has the best defense in college basketball. Illinois has one of the best offenses and was a team pre-bracket that I was pretty sure I would push through to the Final Four, and Auburn is the candidate to be this season’s UConn.

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My other pre-bracket rule: Fade the Big 12. The league is the most physical in the country and its teams, outside of Iowa State, are entering the NCAA Tournament bruised and battered. And if you look through the all-conference teams in the Big 12, the talent is not comparable to past years. There aren’t a lot of pros, and the talent is down. There are still a lot of good teams, but for most of the year it felt like Houston was the only great one. And Houston is a shell of itself right now.

Sometimes it’s a curse to watch a lot of college basketball because it leads to going too chalky. Last season, that would have gotten you in real trouble. This year the top is stronger. It’s not just the eye test. Adjusted efficiency margins at KenPom.com suggest this as well. For instance, last season’s No. 1 entering the tournament (Houston) would be this season’s No. 3. Last season’s No. 2 (UCLA) would fall to No. 6 this year. The numbers a year ago were hinting at possible chaos. This year we could get a more chalky Final Four.

Now, maybe you’ve come here for help with your bracket. My advice: If you’re convinced that UConn is the best team, then pick the Huskies. But if you’re not, there’s a lot of value in picking Purdue. The Boilermakers have been one of the best two teams in the country all season, but a lot of people are going to pick an early upset because Matt Painter’s team has lost in the first round in two of the last three tournaments — including No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year. This is not the same Purdue team. That one featured freshmen guards who were wearing down. Now Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are sophomores, and Smith, in particular, has made a big leap and is one of the best point guards in the country. He also has playmaking help in Southern Illinois transfer guard Lance Jones.

I’m sticking with UConn, but I’ve got Purdue in the championship game.

Let’s get to the nitty gritty now. Here is a region-by-region breakdown.

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East Region

• The second round is the first possible pothole for UConn. Northwestern took Purdue to overtime twice this season and has one of the best-scoring guards in America in Boo Buie. His ability to punish drop coverage is why I’m hesitant to take Florida Atlantic in the first round. FAU’s defense is designed to give up jump shots in the mid-range. Buie doesn’t take a lot of mid-range jumpers, but he’s one of the best pick-and-roll scorers in the country and has an effective field-goal percentage of 58.6 on shots off the dribble, per Synergy.

The Owls have performed their best coming off their lowest points, and losing to Temple in the AAC tournament was a low. Dusty May’s team will be motivated and also potentially a scary matchup for UConn, as the Owls also play their best against top competition — they knocked off Arizona in Las Vegas just before Christmas.

• Auburn is way underseeded if you’re a believer in metrics. The Tigers rank No. 4 at KenPom.com, and as stated earlier, they’re a good candidate to be the UConn of this tournament. UConn was also No. 4 at KenPom going into last year’s bracket and also was a No. 4 seed with the defending national champs (Kansas) as its No. 1 seed in its region.

The Tigers have double-digit wins in 26 of their 27 wins. Last season, UConn had double-digit wins in 19 of its 25 victories heading into the NCAA Tournament and then won all of its tourney games by double digits. This is potential pothole No. 2 for the Huskies, assuming Auburn can get past Yale (Ivy League was one of the best mid-major leagues this year) and San Diego State, which has one of college basketball’s best scoring bigs in Jaedon LeDee.

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• One smart upset pick in this region could be Duquesne over BYU. The Dukes hold their opponents to 31.7 percent 3-point shooting, and BYU lives and dies by the 3. Dayton is probably the closest equivalent to BYU on Duquesne’s schedule; Duquesne got swept by Dayton in the regular season but just upset the Flyers in the A-10 tournament.

• Drake will be a popular 10-7 upset pick because it’ll have the best player on the floor in Tucker DeVries, who will be looking for tourney redemption. Last season, Drake led Miami by eight with under five minutes to go and ended up blowing the late lead, and DeVries scored three points on 1-of-13 shooting in that game. Washington State relies a lot on scoring inside the arc and was the second-best offensive-rebounding team in the Pac-12. Drake’s 2-point defense — allowing 51.9 percent — is not great, but it is the best defensive-rebounding team in the country.

Iowa State will have the best homecourt advantage the opening weekend. Iowa State fans love to travel to see their Cyclones, and it’s a short drive to Omaha. They just took over the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.

• Illinois has won seven of eight games entering the tournament, with that one loss coming to Purdue. The Illini have the positional size to match up with UConn. Their defense — 91st at KenPom — is suspect, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense when you look at the roster. Terrence Shannon Jr. can be a lockdown defender on the perimeter when he wants to be, and Coleman Hawkins is one of the most versatile defenders in the country. Shannon is averaging 31.8 points over his last four games, and he might be the toughest wing in college basketball to defend. (It’s him or Dalton Knecht.)

I’m not sure Illinois has the defensive discipline to handle all of the movement and off-ball screening action from UConn, but I was tempted to make this upset pick. If UConn ends up repeating, the Final Four could end up an easier two games than the second weekend. UConn doesn’t play through Donovan Clingan in the post a lot, but this could be a game to give him the ball a lot, as he has a size and strength advantage on Hawkins. (The Illini do have behemoth Dain Dainja off the bench.) Clingan’s rim protection will also be important, as Shannon and Marcus Domask both live in the paint.

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If Tyler Kolek is healthy, Marquette can make the Final Four. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

South Region

• Nebraska has never won a NCAA Tournament game, but this is the year! The key will be trying to keep Texas A&M off the offensive glass. The Aggies are the best offensive-rebounding team in the country. Nebraska ranks 223rd in defensive rebounding rate. Whoever wins this game is a good candidate to upset Houston.

• Houston is the most vulnerable No. 1 seed with J’Wan Roberts getting injured in the Big 12 tournament. Roberts, who hurt his shin in the semis, did play in the final but lasted only 13 minutes. The Cougars are also missing their two best bench players, and Kelvin Sampson doesn’t have a lot of confidence in his reserves right now.

One of the best weapons to have against Houston’s ball-screen defense is a pick-and-pop, playmaking five and Nebraska has that in Rienk Mast. If it’s Texas A&M advancing in the first round, the Aggies can match Houston’s physicality. And while Houston’s a great offensive-rebounding team, it’s not great right now on the defensive glass, especially since losing backup center Joseph Tugler. The Aggies struggled shooting the ball most of the season, but they’re averaging 83 points and are 5-1 since inserting Manny Obaseki into the starting lineup.

I’ve gone back and forth on who will win Nebraska-A&M. My initial gut pick was Nebraska, but I’m wavering and would probably change my pick if I hadn’t already submitted my bracket! But forgot the wavering. The Huskers are not only going to win their first tourney game in school history; they’re making the Sweet 16.

• Wisconsin and Duke have tricky first-round matchups, and Vermont or James Madison would be worthwhile upset picks. I was hesitant because I’ve got Houston losing and feel like this is a strong 4-5 region. My logic for picking Wisconsin is that Duke’s interior defense is soft. Wisconsin’s Steven Crowl is playing well and will be a matchup problem for Duke in the post. Wisconsin is 15-6 when he scores in double figures.

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• Texas Tech is another Big 12 team hurt by injuries. Starting center Warren Washington has missed eight of the last nine games, and he went scoreless in 13 minutes in his one appearance during that stretch. Starting wing Darrion Williams, one of Texas Tech’s most important pieces, also sat out the Houston game with an ankle injury. I’d expect both to play, but NC State is already a tricky matchup with the red-hot DJ Burns. I was going to pick against the Wolfpack in the opening round because I figured they’d be a tired team, but the health of the Red Raiders worries me more.

• Marquette will have a challenging second-round game, whether it’s Florida, Colorado or Boise State. Both the Gators and Buffaloes are talented, and the Broncos went 13-5 in a challenging Mountain West and had the league’s best offense in conference play. Also, there’s the concern of Tyler Kolek and his oblique injury.

But I’ve been high on the Golden Eagles all season, and they’ve felt like a team that will peak in March after getting upset in the second round last season by Michigan State. Usually, when a veteran team has a loss like that and returns most of its core, it’s a safe bet that the team goes on a run. (See 2019 Virginia for the most extreme example.)

• Kentucky and Illini are the two teams in this bracket that give off the most 2023 Miami vibes. Both are electric on offense and suspect on defense. I trust the Illini more because they’re older. If Marquette-Kentucky happens in the Sweet 16, it’ll be super watchable and likely fast-paced. Wish we knew exactly how healthy Kolek will be, but Marquette is a nightmare matchup for Kentucky’s defense. Kentucky’s ball-screen defense has been brutal for much of the season, and Kolek and Oso Ighodaro are one of the best pick-and-roll tandems in the country. Marquette also can guard.

• Shaka Smart is 0-3 against Wisconsin as the coach at Marquette, including a 75-64 loss in Madison this year. That was one of the worst games of the season for Kolek and Ighodaro. The Badgers dared Kolek to shoot and took away Ighodaro on the roll. Ighodaro finished with just five points on five shots, and Kolek went 1-of-5 from distance.

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Since Jan. 15, the only two teams to beat Marquette are Creighton and Connecticut. Marquette was not quite in the right headspace early in the season when it lost that game but it’s quietly been one of the best teams in the country the last two months and still played pretty well with Kolek sidelined. Smart is finally going to get a win in this rivalry game, sending Marquette to its first Final Four since 2003.

West Region

This is the region best set up for chaos, so let’s get weird.

• Mississippi State just upset Tennessee in the SEC tournament and has the bodies to throw at North Carolina’s Armando Bacot. Chris Jans is one of the best defensive coaches in the country, and his team is holding opponents to 29.4 percent shooting from deep. He’ll be sure to limit the looks for RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan.

The Bulldogs will tempt Elliot Cadeau into shooting. He’s seen the dork defense before — when teams sag off him on the perimeter — sometimes he’s baited into shooting. He’s made just 8-of-44 3s all season. Jans has one of the hottest scorers in the country too, with freshman guard Josh Hubbard averaging 25.4 points over his last eight. A smart game plan and a hot Hubbard are the difference in the second round. And if it’s Sparty playing the Heels, that’s a core that went on a surprise run last year.

• Grand Canyon has one of the best talents in this region in Tyon Grant-Foster, the former Kansas/DePaul wing who sat out the last two years with a heart problem and returned to the floor this season to average 19.8 points per game. I went to see Grant-Foster play for the first time when he was the top-rated juco recruit at Indian Hills Community College in Iowa. He’s always had the talent, and Bryce Drew has brought out the best of him. This is one of the most heartwarming stories in college basketball. Grand Canyon has a talented roster around him too, but I’m picking this upset with my heart. It’d be cool to see Grant-Foster have his moment on this stage.

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• New Mexico was the most talented team in the Mountain West but battled injuries and inconsistent play and finished sixth in the conference standings. But the Lobos got hot this weekend, winning the MWC tournament, and they’re healthy now and metric darlings. They rank No. 23 at KenPom, so that’d suggest they’re underseeded. They have a potential second-round matchup with Baylor, which has an elite offense but has been mediocre defensively the last two seasons.

The Lobos aren’t a great matchup for Arizona in the Sweet 16. When the Wildcats have struggled this year, it’s been against teams that can take advantage of Oumar Ballo in the pick-and-roll. The Lobos P&R handlers finish the second-most possessions of anyone in college hoops, per Synergy. They have one of the best guard trios in the country in Donovan Dent, Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. They also have Nelly Junior Joseph, who is big and strong enough to deal with Ballo on the blocks.

• I’m not sure there’s a team I feel comfortable picking in the Final Four in this region. This is the region where it feels like the selection committee messed up. UNC and Arizona have the easier paths to the Elite Eight, and I’m probably dumb not picking either to get there. But, again, this feels like the spot for chaos. And the team that could benefit is Alabama, which had the hottest offense in college basketball for about the first seven weeks of the calendar year.

The Crimson Tide shoot a ton of 3s, and with that can come some variance. They also have a crummy defense. And they’re in that Kentucky/Illini category of electric offense and suspect defense. Put Illinois in this region and I’d feel great putting the Illini in the Final Four. I’m not so comfortable going with the Crimson Tide, but it’s a team that is probably better than its record. Most will see 11 losses and get scared. Most will see losers of four of their final six and get scared. But the tournament is often a reset, and teams that play unique styles are often good candidates to go on runs. Think some of Jim Boeheim’s mediocre Syracuse teams of the past.


Caleb Furst and Purdue beat Tennessee in November in Hawaii. Could they meet again in the Elite Eight. (Steven Erler / USA Today)
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Midwest Region

• Gonzaga and Kansas are both going to be popular Round 1 upset picks. McNeese State is 30-3 and coached by former LSU coach Will Wade. I was tempted. The Cowboys dominated the Southland, but that’s one of the worst leagues in college basketball. Mark Few hasn’t lost in the first round since 2008 and his team has a major size advantage.

Kansas has a confidence problem and has been the second-worst 3-point shooting team in college basketball the last six weeks. But Samford is actually a good matchup for the Jayhawks in their vulnerable state. Because the Bulldogs press, it’ll allow Kansas to get out in the open floor. That’s where Dajuan Harris Jr., Kevin McCullar Jr., KJ Adams and Johnny Furphy thrive. A fast-paced game will be a welcome change from the sometimes slog of the Big 12.

• Oregon coach Dana Altman is one of the best postseason coaches. The Ducks have made the Sweet 16 as a No. 7 and a No. 12 in their last two tourney appearances. Altman is known for mixing defenses and confusing opponents in the postseason, and center N’Faly Dante, who missed the first half of the season, is playing his best ball of the year. South Carolina coach Lamont Paris will be coaching in only his second NCAA Tournament game. The Gamecocks are also No. 49 at KenPom, so this will likely be close to a coin flip in Vegas. Feels like a good spot to pick an upset.

• Tennessee has one of the easiest second-round matchups no matter if it’s Virginia, Colorado State or Texas. That first weekend should help the Vols get their swagger back after losing two straight coming into the tournament. The key for Tennessee will be getting some offense from someone in addition to Dalton Knecht and Zakai Zeigler. Both Josiah-Jordan James and Santiago Vescovi are in major slumps.

Creighton-Tennessee could be a great Sweet 16 game, but here’s betting the Vols look like themselves again the first weekend and ride that confidence to the Elite Eight. That’s where it gets tricky if they play Purdue, who beat them 71-67 in the opening round of the Maui Invitational in a game where neither team played that great. That was before Zeigler, coming off offseason knee surgery, looked like himself, but Zach Edey dominated. Not sure the Vols have an answer for slowing Edey, and the Vols couldn’t beat Purdue with Braden Smith having one of his worst games (six points, one assist, three turnovers). Purdue could end up reliving Honolulu, beating Tennessee and Marquette on its way to the national title game.

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• Purdue has the easiest path to the Elite Eight of all the No. 1 seeds, and for that reason it might be a smart champion pick. In my bracket, we get the national championship between the two teams who have been at the top of the rankings for most of the year and a game I’ve wanted to see. If it happens, UConn has the big in Clingan to slow Edey, and UConn has better talent around its star big man. I don’t love UConn’s path, but if we get this game, the Huskies are the more complete team. Purdue relies a ton on Smith and Edey, but all five of UConn’s starters could go for 20-plus any given night.

More NCAA Tournament Coverage

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE.

The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Donovan Clingan: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

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Sports

Former Dodger Steve Sax sets out to honor the Marine pilot he calls 'my hero'

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Former Dodger Steve Sax sets out to honor the Marine pilot he calls 'my hero'

ROSEVILLE, Calif. – There is only a smattering of baseball memorabilia on display in Steve Sax’s home office, a show of restraint considering he was a five-time All-Star.

His Rookie of the Year trophy is nowhere to be found. There is no Silver Slugger Award on a shelf. Neither World Series ring resides on a finger.

Instead, Sax’s most cherished possessions abound just out of sight. And on a rainy afternoon in this Sacramento suburb, he is in a nostalgic mood.

“Oh, I wanted to show you something,’’ Sax said.

The Los Angeles Dodgers sparkplug rises from behind his desk and returns with a treasure. He lifts a delicate glass cover to unveil one of his favorite art pieces.

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It’s a misshapen model airplane with all the hallmarks of a grade-school project. The lumpy black body is made of clay. Two red marbles serve as the jet’s afterburners while one green one represents the landing gear.

“So, he made that for me,’’ Sax, 64, said. “He was in the fourth or fifth grade. And he said, ‘Dad, I’m gonna be an aviator someday.’’’

John was 8 years old when a friend of the family, a former Navy pilot, took him up in a single-engine World War II Soviet fighter called the Yakovlev Yak. They tooled around skyways above Northwest Oregon and for John, it was love at first flight. After that, the only place he wanted to be was in the sky.

Rich Ward, the pilot that day, had seen this phenomenon before. “There are some unusual people where you take them up one time and it’s over,” he said by phone. “Flying is what they’re going to do. I think they were reincarnated: they used to be birds.”

John Sax was so obsessed with flying that other youthful pursuits, such as baseball, barely registered. A ball once sailed over John’s head as if undetected during a Little League game. Oddly, the kid looked skyward the whole time but never budged.

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More baffled than angry, Sax asked little Johnny after the game why he didn’t, you know, try to catch it.

“I saw the ball,’’ the kid protested, “but, Dad, did you see the C-130 going by? Each one of those engines costs 7 million dollars!”

Sax, a second baseman who played for the Yankees, White Sox and A’s as well as the Dodgers in a 14-year major league career, laughed as he recounted that story. Soon he was out of his seat again, this time reaching into a display case. He pulled down a poem encased in a silver frame.

It’s called “My Dad: by John Sax.” The outdated font suggests it rolled out of a home printer in the early 1990s. It reads, in part:

My dad was with me
when I was born
I know he’ll be beside me
through every storm

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“Johnny wrote that for me when he was a little boy,’’ Sax said. “He won first prize in a contest.”

Another item in Sax’s collection, however, remained undisturbed. He does not rise to get it. He merely glowers in the direction of an adjoining room, where an autopsy report sits banished to a drawer for eternity.

“I haven’t looked at it. I can’t look at it,’’ Sax said. “And that’s forever. I just don’t want to see it.”

John became an aviator, just as he told his dad he would. He was a star pilot in the military, tapped for the Marine Corps version of “Top Gun” and heralded by his commanding officer as “a natural in the cockpit, just leaps and bounds above his peers in terms of his progression.”

Capt John J. Sax died with four other Marines when the aircraft he was co-piloting malfunctioned and crashed into a remote Southern California desert on June 8, 2022.

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The reason Steve Sax has now parted with so many of his baseball treasures is that he had dreamed of one day giving them to his son. Instead, he holds tight only to all the gifts John gave him.

“He was my hero,’’ Sax said.

That is why Sax is here now, alternating between tears and laughter, between happy memories and debilitating grief, as he embarks on his mission to honor John’s life.


John Sax’s elementary school project was one of many early signs of his love for flying. (Courtesy of Steve Sax)

If the military operated like the major leagues, John Sax might have won Rookie of the Year, too.

“He walked into the room and was just larger than life,’’ Lt. Col. John Miller recalled by phone. “I see a lot of Marine officers check in. He was just different right from the get-go. His personality, his ability to communicate, his motivation, his excitement – full of energy.”

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Miller serves as the commanding officer for the “Purple Foxes,” a squadron based at the Marine Corps Air Station Camp Pendleton (San Diego County).

The unit’s colorful history dates back to the Vietnam War when, Miller said, an infantry battalion was under heavy fire during the battle for Khe Sanh in 1968 and needed an emergency resupply. The Purple Foxes heard the distress calls and immediately launched, resupplying the Marines and prompting one of the grateful men to reply: “You were the only ones that gave a s— about us.”

The line became an enduring motto. “Give a s—” lives on in the Purple Foxes culture. It’s painted onto aircraft and imprinted on shoulder patches.

It was in this rough-and-tumble culture that John Sax, the failed Little League outfielder, became a franchise player. He was especially adept at maneuvering the MV-22B Osprey, an aircraft that combines the agility of a helicopter with the speed of a turboprop. The Marines use the Osprey as an assault support aircraft.

It was John Sax’s favorite mode of travel.

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“He loved it,’’ Miller said. “It was designed to take off and land like a helicopter, so you don’t really need a runway, but  to fly in airplane mode at higher altitudes and much faster air speeds than a typical helicopter.”

Flying in the military had long been John’s goal, but it took a while for Uncle Sam to welcome him aboard. The Navy rejected John because of a shattered elbow suffered during a skimboarding accident (Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the famed Dodgers surgeon, handled the repairs.) John was later derailed by astigmatism, which also required surgery.

But John never considered a Plan B.

“Whatever it took, it didn’t matter,’’ Steve said. “It was amazing to me how driven he just was, even as a young boy. Nothing was going to get in his way. Nothing.”

Along the way, John earned a degree in aeronautical science at Embry-Riddle and amassed flying experience. Once he had the hang of things, he even took his mom for a spin. Debbie and Steve split when John was young, but they remain on good terms. They have an older daughter, Lauren Ashley, who is 37.

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John took Debbie up in 2015 in a Cessna-172, a single-engine plane known as the Skyhawk.

Once they reached cruising altitude, John turned to her and said, “Mom, do you want to see what I’ve learned?” She was thrown by the question. They were already flying.  This was what he’d learned, right?

Then her John stalled the plane, nose-dived for a spell and calmly pulled out of the stall. “Then he looks over at me and he goes, ‘Don’t tell my instructor I just did that,’” Debbie said with a laugh.


Steve Sax (right) with his son John. (Courtesy of Steve Sax)

Steve Sax had a much different relationship with his own father. John Thomas Sax was a Montana-born truck driver who lived life as if on a word count. He didn’t say much of anything. Specific phrases such as “I’m sorry” or “I love you” never escaped his larynx.

“He was like John Wayne,” Sax said. “My dad was not a talker. He was a doer.”

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But his dad’s no-nonsense gruffness pulled Sax from the abyss during the lowest point of his career. In 1983, the infielder suddenly found himself incapable of making routine throws to first base. His version of the baseball yips became so bad that it’s now known as “Steve Sax Syndrome.” He made 30 errors that season, and his throws were so wildly errant that some smart-aleck fans along the first-base line at Dodger Stadium started wearing helmets.

“I had 26 errors at the break,’’ Sax recalled. “People make that in a career. I had 26 at the break.”

Less remembered is that Sax worked his way out of it. He overcame his throwing woes and finished in the National League’s top five for fielding percentage every year from 1986-1988, then led the American League in ’89 with the Yankees.

“I did! Thank you for remembering!’’ Sax said, laughing. “But I was going to tell you anyway.”

What was the cure for Steve Sax Syndrome? His stern father, John, told Steve that the only escape was to get his confidence back, and the only way to do that was to practice manically until he felt like himself again.

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Then, in a rare moment of vulnerability for John Sax, he confided to Steve that he had the exact same issue as a young player, and that’s how he got out of it once upon a time.

“So I thought, ‘Wow! If Dad can go through this, then, of course, it will work,’’ Sax said. “So I took his advice, went through practice and got my confidence back one day at a time. Eventually, I took that confidence into the game – and the thing was gone.”

That tough-love lesson was the last conversation Sax ever had with his father. John died on June 10, 1983 at age 47.

It was several more years before Steve learned, to his delight, that Dad had conned him. Steve was reminiscing with his mom, Nancy, about how Dad’s willingness to open up about his throwing struggles saved his career. “And my mom whispers, ‘Your dad never had a throwing problem,’’’ Sax said.

He smiled. His parents had known each other since the fifth grade.

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“He just told me that because he knew how much I revered his power and strength. And I got over it because I thought, ‘Well if he went through it …’ But he never went through it!”

The rest of Sax’s career was more fun, especially in 1988. He kicked off that magical year by belting a homer as the Dodgers’ first batter of the season. And by October, he was in the on-deck circle for Kirk Gibson’s classic home run against the A’s Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the World Series.

Lesser remembered, except for in this room, is that the biggest highlight for Sax that season happened in that sweet spot between Opening Day and the Fall Classic.

On Aug. 15 of that year, John Sax was born.


Steve Sax (right) with Tommy Lasorda during the 1988 World Series against the Oakland A’s. (Lennox McLendon / Associated Press)

On the worst day of their lives, the news came in ominous trickles.

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Lauren invited her mom and dad over for dinner. Debbie got there first, just in time to read a text from Rich Ward, the family friend who had taken John on that life-changing flight. The message was something about a military mishap at Camp Pendleton.

“He didn’t say crash,” Debbie said. ‘He said, ‘There was an incident with an Osprey.’”

Debbie called John’s cellphone and it went straight to voicemail. She checked with John’s wife, Amber, who hadn’t heard from him. Rich told them not to worry about the silence, noting that the military often goes into a communication lockdown if something goes haywire.

Debbie wasn’t yet worried, though by the time Steve’s car rolled up to the house, she at least fretted over the rest of the squadron. Steve was also unfazed; military pilots are hardly the most reachable people. Unreturned phone calls and texts were the norm.

He recalls going to bed at 9 p.m. Ten minutes later he heard a knock at the door.

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There was a Marine in full dress on his doorstep.

“I knew right away,’’ Sax said.

Recounting this part of the story, Sax went quiet for several moments. This is the pattern. When talking about the crash, Sax’s words often trailed off. He would start sentences with a full head of steam before running into a wall of grief.

Then, after a few beats of silence, he would push through. He did not fight tears; he embraced them. Among the few worthwhile condolences Sax received after the accident was when a nun told him: “Grief is the price you pay for loving someone.’’’

It took a full military investigation over the next 10 months, but the family got a full accounting of what happened that day. Capt. John Sax and four other Marines were returning from a training mission at low altitude on a clear and sunny afternoon. John had a lunch date scheduled with his wife within the hour. He and Amber had a 2-year-old daughter, and a second child would be born on Sept. 22.

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What happened next would later be categorized as “a catastrophic mechanical failure.” The Osprey suffered “a hard clutch engagement,’’ which is when the clutch that connects the Osprey’s rotor gearbox to its engine slips. As detailed by the Defense News, the Osprey should immediately transfer the power load from the damaged engine to a second operational one. In this case, though, the power transfer blew out that engine, too. There is no third engine.

“It fell,” Steve Sax said, “like a rock out of the sky.” He even knows the moment of impact, 12:14 p.m. “and 18 seconds.”

The four other service members who perished that day were Cpl. Nathan E. Carlson, 21, of Winnebago, Ill.; Capt. Nicholas P. Losapio, 31, of Rockingham, N.H.; Cpl. Seth D. Rasmuson, 21, of Buffalo, Wyo.; and Lance Cpl. Evan A. Strickland, 19, of Valencia, N.M.

The official report following the military investigation stated, “There was nothing the crew of the SWIFT 11 could have done to anticipate or prevent this aviation mishap.”

This is one of the calamities that put John Sax’s favorite aircraft under increased scrutiny. From March 2022 to November 2023, 20 service members died in four fatal Osprey crashes, as noted in a recent NBC story. The U.S. military grounded its entire fleet of about 400 V-22 Ospreys after the crash of an Air Force Special Operations Command Osprey off Japan last November killed eight airmen.

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In the case of the Purple Foxes, the fallen crew members remain a familiar presence at Camp Pendleton, where the new generation of Marine pilots wear patches bearing their names.

“We talk about them all the time,’’ Miller said. “When we walk into the squadron, we have a huge plaque with all their pictures above the entranceway.

“They are kind of a driving force for us to always do the right thing.”



Steve Sax started a foundation to help other kids who share John’s passion for flight achieve their goals. (Courtesy of Debbie Sax)

The first fundraiser for the Capt. John J. Sax Family Foundation took place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Los Angeles on Nov. 7, 2023. More than a thousand Marines attended, according to one estimate. Miller, who was John Sax’s commanding officer and closest confidante, wrote Steve Sax a letter in the aftermath of the tragedy:

“John spoke of you often and about how great his childhood was. What is most amazing to me is that he never once mentioned that you were a professional baseball player. Humility was his most impressive character trait. He loved you, Deborah, Lauren and his family dearly. … His life and legacy are a direct testament to how you raised John and for that, you should be proud.”

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For all of the baseball memorabilia he’s given away, there’s one notable doozy in Sax’s home office. It’s a 4-foot by 6-foot painting called “Babe and the Kids,”  based on a famous 1922 photo of Babe Ruth surrounded by schoolchildren. Sports artist Opie Otterstadt reimagined the photo by painting all the “kids” as Hall of Famers. There are baby-faced versions of Roberto Clemente and Sandy Koufax and George Brett.

“I look at this painting every day,” Sax said.

Now, the image is at the heart of the biggest fundraiser to date for the nascent John J. Sax Family Foundation. Interactive digital versions of the painting are for sale, and the proceeds will fund grants for young people who dreamed, as John Sax once did, of taking flight. “Honestly, there’s no way you can ever put a lid on that much light and energy,” Debbie Sax said. “So we want to just keep it going.”

Steve Sax said the foundation has already given away $10,000 in grant money to aspiring aviators. The funding got a boost when Sax auctioned off all that hardware from his baseball career.

“It doesn’t necessarily have to be the military,’’ Sax said. “It could be somebody who wants to become an astronaut. It’s pretty broad. But if they’ve got a passion for flight, that’s what we’re gonna help them with.”

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Steve Sax hopes the foundation will keep John’s memory alive. More practically, it gives him something else to hold onto, right alongside the clay fighter jet and the poem.

One of the stages of grief is acceptance, but Sax is nowhere near that territory, and finds it hard to believe such a stage exists.

“Because I just don’t understand it,” he said. “I know John’s not here. But I just …”

He hits that wall again.

“… I can’t grab it, still. You’re moving forward but you’re not moving on. … I try to think about what John would want. But the one line I heard that really summed up losing a child was: ‘The pain never goes away until you’ve taken your last breath. It won’t go away until your heart stops beating.’

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“But I believe in heaven. And I believe I’ll see him again.”

(Top image: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo: Daniel Brown / The Athletic)

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Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid fighting through Bell's palsy amid NBA playoffs

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Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid fighting through Bell's palsy amid NBA playoffs

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Joel Embiid, star center for the Philadelphia 76ers, revealed on Thursday that he has been battling through a Bell’s Palsy diagnosis for the past 10 days, playing through the diagnosis as the Sixers feel their backs against the wall.

Embiid shared the news of his condition with the media after Game 3’s 125-113 win by Philly.

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Bell’s Palsy leads to partial paralysis of the face. In Embiid’s case, the left side of his face has been affecting him during the ongoing series against the New York Knicks. The reigning MVP scored 50 points in Game 3, a playoff record total for Embiid, to help keep Philly alive in the series. There is no set timeline on a recovery for Embiid.

Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during the first quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Wells Fargo Center on April 02, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

As part of sharing his diagnosis, Embiid noted that he’s seeking treatment but will be muscling through the nagging condition these playoffs.

“My body was just, I was just not feeling it,” Embiid said when first identifying the symptoms.

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76ERS JOEL EMBIID DROPS 50 IN PLAYOFF WIN BUT FLAGRANT FOUL RAISES EYEBROWS

Embiid still struggles with migraines and rapid dryness in his left eye.

Draymond Green guards Joel Embiid

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) looks to pass around Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2024, in San Francisco.  (AP Photo/D. Ross Cameron)

Fans noticed the slight stiffness on Embiid’s face during Monday’s Game 2 broadcast. Embiid appeared startled during a free throw attempt when his left eye could not blink in tandem with his right eye.

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“Yes, it’s pretty annoying. My left side of my face, my mouth and my eye. It’s been tough. But I’m not a quitter. I’m going to keep fighting through anything. It’s unfortunate, that’s the way I look at it. But it’s not an excuse. I’ve got to keep pushing.”

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Joel Embiid shoots

Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots over Precious Achiuwa #5 of the Toronto Raptors during the third quarter at the Wells Fargo Center on December 22, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Embiid first noticed symptoms on April 17 after facing the Miami Heat in the play-in tournament. In this series, the center has worn glasses in postgame interviews, which Embiid admitted was due to the partial paralysis in his face.

“It hasn’t really necessarily gotten better,” Embiid added. “With the conversations that I’ve had, it could be weeks, it could be months.

“I just hope that it stays like this. I’ve got a beautiful face. I don’t like when my mouth is looking the other way. Unfortunate situation but everything happens for a reason.”

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Frustrated Kings have no answer for high-scoring Oilers in Game 3 blowout loss

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Frustrated Kings have no answer for high-scoring Oilers in Game 3 blowout loss

Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid were three of the most dangerous scorers during the NHL regular season, combining for 127 goals and 315 points for the Edmonton Oilers. Stopping one of them is a challenge, stopping all three is pretty much impossible.

The Kings certainly haven’t found a way to do it, with Hyman, Draisaitl and McDavid combining for five goals and three assists Friday in a 6-1 Oilers win in Game 3 of their Western Conference playoff series that gave Edmonton a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven matchup the trio have dominated.

The loss was just the fifth in the Kings’ last 19 games at Crypto.com Arena, but it might prove to be the most costly since it swung the momentum of the series back to Edmonton and neutralized home-ice advantage should the series go seven games.

The way Hyman, Draisaitl and McDavid have been playing, that seems unlikely.

The trio has combined for 10 goals and 13 assists in the series. Three of the goals came in the first period Friday, burying the Kings in a hole they could never climb out of.

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Hyman scored less than seven minutes into the game after a giveaway by defensemen Drew Doughty made it possible. After a faceoff, Edmonton’s Mattias Ekholm jumped on a lazy backhand pass from Doughty near the Kings’ blueline, then fed Hyman alone in the slot.

Edmonton Oilers players celebrate after a goal by Evander Kane (91) in the second period of a 6-1 win over the Kings in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series Friday at Crypto.com Arena.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

The Oilers’ forward took a couple of whacks at the puck, with Kings goalie Cam Talbot stopping both tries, before Hyman finally stuffed it inside the post on Talbot’s stick side for his league-leading fifth goal of the playoffs.

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Hyman has scored in all three games in the series.

Draisaitl doubled the lead late in the first period, gathering a pass that Evander Kane bounced off the side of the Kings’ net, then beating Talbot cleanly with a shot from a sharp angle near the bottom of the left circle for his 82nd career playoff point.

Three minutes later, McDavid scored on a power play, knocking in a rebound of his own shot for his first goal of these playoffs. Evan Bouchard picked up his fifth assist and Draisaitl his fourth on the play.

Doughty got the Kings on the board 5:32 into the second period, one-timing a cross pass from Quinton Byfield into the net. For Byfield, the assist was his third in two games, pushing his playoff point streak to five games. But Kane got the goal back for Edmonton two minutes later, deflecting in a shot by defenseman Cody Ceci from the blue line off his leg past Talbot.

Kings defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov, left, and Edmonton Oilers forward Warren Foegele chase after the puck.

Kings defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov, left, and Edmonton Oilers forward Warren Foegele chase after the puck in the second period Friday.

(Wally Skalij/Los Angeles)

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The Kings, who have been eliminated by Edmonton in the first round of the playoffs the last two seasons, showed their frustration in the third period when three players were sent off the ice, defenseman Andreas Englund for fighting and an illegal check to the head, Anze Kopitar for roughing and unsportsmanlike conduct and Adrian Kempe for roughing.

Two Oilers also went off after the skirmish, but the double penalites on Kopitar and Englund left Edmonton with a five-on-three advantage and Hyman needed less than 80 seconds to take advantage, scoring his sixth goal of the series to give Edmonton a 5-1 lead.

McDavid got his playoff-high seventh assist on the goal, yet the Oilers’ Big Three weren’t done, with Draisaitl tacking on another goal at 12:38. McDavid got another assist on that one. The one-sided scoreline could be a bad omen for the Kings, who were routed 8-2 by the Oilers in Los Angeles in Game 3 two years ago and went on to lose the series in seven games.

The Oilers have 17 goals in the series, which resumes Sunday with Game 4 at Crypto.com Arena.

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