Sports
March Madness upset picks: Bracket Breakers chooses its 10 most likely first-round stunners
Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you’ve missed us, and we can’t wait to overwhelm you with our unique take on NCAA tournament upsets, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully, you’ve been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the most recent explanation of who we are, what we do and the state of Slingshot.
In the coming days, we will offer deep regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game (meaning there must be a differential of at least five seeds). We’ll also provide upset probabilities for every potential second-round matchup on Wednesday. You won’t want to fill out a bracket or place a moneyline bet without checking out that piece!
But as you begin to digest the bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 likeliest first-round upsets. We swear we don’t have anything against the Palmetto State — after all, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson provide the math behind Slingshot — but our model certainly isn’t bullish on the two power-conference teams from South Carolina.
GO DEEPER
March madness bracket prep: Capsule previews for all 68 teams, with strengths, weaknesses, outlooks and more
As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least 5 seeds, estimates their basic strengths, adjusts those power ratings according to how closely each team fits the statistical profiles of past Davids or Goliaths, and then modifies them again to account for matchups. This year, we’ve upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results.
For more Underdogs, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast.
10 Most Likely First-Round Upsets
1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos
Upset Chance: 57.8 percent
2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks
Upset Chance: 43.2 percent
3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack
Upset Chance: 38.2 percent
4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Upset Chance: 30.8 percent
5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes
Upset Chance: 30.4 percent
6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 30.1 percent
7. No.5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers
Upset Chance: 27.8 percent
8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes
Upset Chance: 24.8 percent
9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes
Upset Chance: 24.4 percent
10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips
Upset Chance: 20.4 percent
Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of New Mexico’s Jaelen House: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Photo of Grand Canyon’s Gabe McGlothan: Ian Maule / AP)
Sports
Becky Lynch enters exclusive WWE club with Women’s Intercontinental Championship win at WrestleMania 42
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LAS VEGAS – Becky Lynch entered an atmosphere no other WWE women’s superstar has ever reached as she won the Women’s Intercontinental Championship over AJ Lee on Saturday night at WrestleMania 42.
Lynch became the first person to hold the Women’s Intercontinental Championship three times after she pinned Lee. She first won the title against Lyra Valkyria in June 2025 and then again against Maxxine Dupri in November.
Becky Lynch celebrates with the belt after defeating AJ Lee during their women’s Intercontinental Championship match at WrestleMania 42 in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 18, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
She dropped the belt to Lee at the Elimination Chamber, sparking a monthslong feud with her.
Lee gave Lynch the chance at the title in the weeks prior to WrestleMania 42. But it appeared Lee played right into Lynch’s plans. Despite arguing with referee Jessica Carr for most of the match, Lynch was able to tactfully tear down a rope buckle and use it to her advantage.
Lynch hit Lee with a Manhandle Slam and pinned her for the win.
WWE STARS REVEAL WHAT MAKES WRESTLEMANIA SO SPECIAL: ‘IT’S THE SUPER BOWL OF PRO WRESTLING’
AJ Lee reacts after losing to Becky Lynch in their Women’s Intercontinental Championship match at WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on April 18, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
It’s the second straight year Lynch will leave Las Vegas as champion. She returned to WWE at WrestleMania 41, teaming with Valkyria, to win the women’s tag titles. She will now leave Allegiant Stadium as the women’s intercontinental champion.
Lynch is now a seven-time women’s champion, three-time women’s intercontinental champion and two-time tag team champion.
Becky Lynch withstands AJ Lee during their Women’s Intercontinental Championship match on night one of WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 18, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
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Lee’s reign as champion ended really before it could really begin. WrestleMania 42 was her first appearance at the event in 11 years. It’s unclear where Lee will go from here.
Sports
Letters to Sports: Clippers were oh so close, yet so far
The Clippers’ season has come to an end but better than anyone expected. No consolation but a great job by head coach Tyronn Lue for guiding the Clippers from a disastrous 6-21 start and finishing with more than 40 wins.
Coach Lue led the team, overcoming major obstacles throughout the season with a player investigation, injuries, internal strife and major roster changes at the trade deadline. As usual for Clipper fans, wait till next year.
Wayne Muramatsu
Cerritos
The Clippers are the NBA’s version of Stealers Wheel’s “Stuck in the Middle With You.” Yes, they have had 15 straight seasons of playing .500 or better, and owner Steve Ballmer has brought them respectability, but for their entire 56-year existence — which has contained many clowns and jokers — they still have never [attained] their goal of winning (or even reaching) the NBA Finals.
Ken Feldman
Tarzana
Sports
‘The Naked Gun’ actor Paul Walter Hauser bloodies opponent at Maple Leaf Pro’s first US show
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LAS VEGAS – Paul Walter Hauser is an actor who has been in “The Naked Gun,” “Blackbird,” and “Richard Jewell.” But on Friday night at Maple Leaf Pro’s first U.S. event, MLP Multiverse, there was no acting going on.
Hauser squared off against QT Marshall in a sin city street fight at the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas. It was the final show of Slam Fest. The two pro wrestlers pulled out all the stops and left the ring in complete disarray.
Paul Walter Hauser competed against QT Marshall at Maple Leaf Pro Multiverse on April 18, 2026 in Las Vegas. (Fox News Digital)
It was a rematch of their brawl at Ring of Honor’s Death Before Dishonor event. Marshall went on the attack first, throwing in all kinds of foreign objects into the ring, including a piece of wood wrapped with barbed wire, a table, a cane, chairs and even a door was brought into the match.
Hauser was able to regain momentum in the match. He set up the barbed-wire object in the corner. Marshall countered and was trying to whip Hauser into the barbed wire. However, Hauser stopped himself. As Marshall tried to take Hauser by surprise, the movie star avoided Marshall and tossed him into the barbed wire.
Marshall was busted open, but wasn’t done. Hauser was trying to inflict more pain. He set up a table near one corner of the ring and poured thumbtacks on top of it. Marshall was able to powerbomb Hauser through the tacked table.
Paul Walter Hauser is pictured on Thursday, Feb. 1, 2024. (Nathan Congleton/NBC)
BLUE PANTHER AND ÚLTIMO GUERRERO STEAL THE SHOW AT CMLL’S FIRST-EVER US EVENT IN LAS VEGAS
Hauser was left with thumbtacks in his back and one in his head. He managed to power through and put Marshall into a sharpshooter. Marshall tapped out. Hauser picked up the victory.
Hauser got his start in pro wrestling in 2023 at Pro Wrestling Revolver. He worked his way through appearances at All Elite Wrestling before he signed with Major League Wrestling in 2024.
He’s currently Progress Wrestling’s Progress proteus champion.
Elsewhere, Consejo Mundial de Lucha Libre (CMLL) world heavyweight champion Hechicero defended his championship against Jonathan Gresham, Maple Leaf Pro Canadian women’s champion Gisele Shaw fended off Shotzi Blackheart, Persephone and surprise entrant Killer Kelly to keep the title.
Mistico, Mascara Dorada and Amazing Red defeated The Rascalz at Maple Leaf Pro Multiverse on April 18, 2026 in Las Vegas. (Fox News Digital)
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The show started with Subculture, the tag team duo of Mark Andrews and Flash Morgan Webster, defeated Vaughn Vertigo and Guy Cool. The Demand’s Ricochet, Bishop Kaun and Toa Liona defeated Sidney Akeem, Michael Oku and Rich Swaan, Steve Borden defeated Kiran Gray and Mistico, Mascara Dorada, Amazing Red defeated The Rascalz – Desmond Xavier, Zachary Wentz and Myron Reed.
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