Sports
College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks
Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in our survey of 30 college football writers and editors at The Athletic, a big change from 10 years of postseason tournaments in which only four teams were in the field.
Though Oregon got a majority of the votes, plenty of variety emerged as our staff filled out their brackets ahead of the first round, which begins with Indiana at Notre Dame on Friday night. In fact, even No. 12 seed Clemson, which has three losses, got a national championship vote.
Here’s who we picked and how those predictions compare to Austin Mock’s projections model:
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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Odds to advance for all 12 teams in the bracket
First round
| First round | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
71% |
|
|
36.7% |
29% |
|
|
90.0% |
72% |
|
|
10.0% |
28% |
|
|
90.0% |
65% |
|
|
10.0% |
35% |
|
|
73.3% |
67% |
|
|
26.7% |
33% |
Not surprisingly, the consensus of our 30 voters is chalk.
Per BetMGM, the better seed is favored by at least 7.5 points in every first-round game. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65 percent chance to win, and our closest staff vote is Tennessee getting 11 votes to win at Ohio State in a matchup that undoubtedly presents challenges for the Buckeyes, especially after the way their offensive line played in the loss to Michigan.
Quarterfinals
| Rose Bowl | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
83.3% |
53% |
|
|
16.7% |
37% |
|
|
0.0% |
11% |
Oregon ended up with a tough draw despite being the nation’s only unbeaten team, as it will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model gives the Ducks just a 53 percent chance of getting through. Ohio State would be a rematch, as Oregon beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.
Still, 25 of our 30 voters picked Oregon to win the Rose Bowl, compared to just five for Ohio State and zero for Tennessee. Every person who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked them to win the national title.
|
Peach Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
80.0% |
60% |
|
|
13.3% |
22% |
|
|
6.7% |
18% |
Arizona State is seeded fourth as the Big 12 champion but ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25 — nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to both beat Clemson and get through the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to advance to an in-state semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, with only four people choosing Arizona State to win and two picking Clemson.
|
Sugar Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
52% |
|
|
46.7% |
34% |
|
|
0.0% |
14% |
Only three of 30 voters picked Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none had the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets and also taking down Georgia. The staff is split on a potential Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl, however: Fourteen of the 27 people to pick Notre Dame to beat Indiana also have the Fighting Irish toppling the Bulldogs.
|
Fiesta Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
33% |
|
|
36.7% |
48% |
|
|
10.0% |
19% |
This is the least chalky part of the bracket. Most voters like Penn State to beat SMU at home, but our staff is fond of Boise State revitalizing its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are unbeaten in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, only half of the 22 voters who picked Penn State to beat SMU also picked the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. In total, Boise State gets 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State’s 12 and SMU’s two.
Mock’s model disagrees, as it has Penn State beating both SMU and Boise State 48 percent of the time.
Semifinals
|
Cotton Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
32% |
|
|
16.7% |
25% |
|
|
13.3% |
29% |
|
|
3.3% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
4% |
Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio may end up with a tough draw in the semifinals in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, which would be playing close to home. Still, two-thirds of our staff likes Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, while just five opted for Ohio State, four chose Texas and one rolled with a surprise run to the national title game by No. 12 seed Clemson.
|
Orange Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
29% |
|
|
40.0% |
20% |
|
|
6.7% |
26% |
|
|
3.3% |
11% |
|
|
0.0% |
8% |
|
|
0.0% |
6% |
Though Mock’s model puts the chances of Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame advancing to the national title game all between 20 and 29 percent, our staff has mostly rallied around either Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia got 15 votes to win the Orange Bowl to Notre Dame’s 12, while Penn State got just two and Boise State got one.
National championship
Going undefeated is difficult, but 17 of our 30 voters believe Oregon can run the table for a 15-0 record to become the first new national champion since Florida in 1996. It’s a big step up from the Ducks earning 10.7 percent of our preseason vote and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.
Only four teams received votes to win the national title in the preseason: Ohio State (57.1 percent), Georgia (28.6 percent), Oregon (10.7 percent) and Alabama (3.6 percent). That number expanded to five by midseason: Texas (50 percent), Ohio State (36.7 percent), Oregon (6.7 percent), Georgia (3.3 percent) and Clemson (3.3 percent).
Now, the field of possible national champions has been narrowed to just 12, but six teams received at least one vote to win it all. Here is a case for each of those six teams:
Oregon: Every other team has a weakness that’s been exposed at some point. The teams that present the biggest threats to Oregon — Ohio State, Texas and Georgia — looked vulnerable the last time they took the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks have shown they can win a shootout if they have to. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I’d want if I could pick one Playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek
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Ohio State: Ohio State put together a horrific game plan against Michigan and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I anticipate Ohio State will play much looser and put a premium on getting the nation’s best set of skill-position players into the right spots and maximizing potential mismatches to its advantage. — Scott Dochterman
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Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. For all the attention on the quarterbacks and Texas’ offensive-minded head coach, it’s the defense that has carried the Longhorns: They allow just one point per drive, lowest in the FBS. And when the offense gets going, it makes Texas hard to beat. — Sam Khan Jr.
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Texas will go as far as Quinn Ewers takes it, for better or worse
Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle tested (six games vs. top-16 teams), and, most importantly, will be at its healthiest all season — except for quarterback Carson Beck, of course. Also, the title game is in Atlanta. — Stewart Mandel
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A backup QB, of all people, comes to Georgia’s rescue — not detriment
Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I love how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and that will carry over into the Playoff. The Irish were written off after that loss, and Marcus Freeman’s group showed an impressive determination to move past that. — Daniel Shirley
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Clemson: Quinn Ewers has not looked 100 percent since September, Arizona State has to fly all the way to Atlanta for its quarterfinal and the winner of the Rose Bowl may be running on fumes by the semis. Ten years of CFP history have taught me that if something good can happen for Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has been just clutch enough, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justyn Ross-like late-season trajectory and I can’t help but assume Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. — Eric Single
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Dabo Swinney guides Clemson back to the Playoff — fool’s gold or proof of concept?
So what matchup will we see for the national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
|
Oregon-Georgia |
10 |
|
Oregon-Notre Dame |
8 |
|
Ohio State-Georgia |
3 |
|
Oregon-Penn State |
2 |
|
Texas-Georgia |
2 |
|
Texas-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Ohio State-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Clemson-Boise State |
1 |
Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the bracket was revealed. Our 30 voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia the most common at one-third of the vote. Twenty-seven of the 30 had at least one of Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who picked Georgia meeting Texas for the third time this season.
Special shout out to our one voter who went for the chaos bracket choice of Clemson vs. Boise State.
(Photo of Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)
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The Indiana Pacers’ risky move backfired after the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery saw them lose their top pick altogether in a disastrous turn of events on Sunday afternoon.
Heading into the lottery, the Pacers, who went 19-63 just one season after reaching the NBA Finals out of the Eastern Conference, had a 52.1% chance of having a top-four pick.
However, when they didn’t see their team chosen in the first four picks – Indiana also had a 14% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick – it was time to panic.
Indiana Pacers president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard speaks during a press conference to announce center Miles Turner’s contract extension at Gainsbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind., on Jan. 30, 2023. (Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY Sports)
The reason? The Pacers included their first-round pick in a trade with the Los Angeles Clippers for Ivica Zubac, but they only made it a top-four protected pick. That means, if the Pacers were chosen in the lottery as a top-four selection, they would be able to keep it.
But the Pacers were chosen as the No. 5 pick, and the Clippers now own the selection in next month’s draft.
NBA LOTTERY CHAOS: WASHINGTON WIZARDS STRIKE GOLD, PACERS PAY FOR TANKING GAMBLE NIGHTMARE
As a result, Pacers team president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard took full responsibility for the move, apologizing on social media.
“I’m really sorry to all our fans,” he wrote on X. “I own taking this risk. Surprised it came up 5th after this year. I thought we were due some luck. But please remember – this team deserved a starting center to compete with the best teams next year. We have always been resilient.”
Signage is displayed during the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery at Navy Pier in Chicago, Illinois, on May 10, 2026. (Melissa Tamez/NBAE/Getty Images)
The Pacers were viewed as a team that were actively tanking despite the NBA’s attempt to crack down on such a season, with the lottery being one way of that. And it clearly worked this time around.
Pritchard was trying to be transparent and honest with the Pacers fan base, but people were quick to jump in the comments to make their thoughts, and gripes, known.
“You lose Myles Turner and add Zubac,” one X user began. “You lose [Benedict] Mathurin and the number 5 pick with absolutely nothing in return. This is why fans are upset, for a center who not even a top 5 center in the NBA. Who trades their future away for Ivan [sic] Zubac???”
Another X user called this a “generational draft,” and couldn’t fathom the Pacers won’t be picking from a deep class.
“If I were a Pacers fan and my team traded away a top 5 pick for Ivica Zubac in the middle of a tanking season I would be beyond devastated,” a fellow X user wrote.
Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton shoots around on the court before an NBA game against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Indianapolis on April 7, 2026. (Doug McSchooler/AP)
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The Pacers were without their All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton all season long after he suffered an Achilles injury during the NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder. But Indiana still has key members of that team returning next season, including Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, and Aaron Nesmith.
However, this 2026 draft class is quite the spectacle, with many believing it to be deep considering the talent of BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, UNC’s Caleb Wilson, and Duke’s Cam Boozer, among others.
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Before the Sparks opening day loss to the Las Vegas Aces, coach Lynne Roberts said that this year “felt different.”
After one game, though, it feels a lot like the same.
During their season opener, the Sparks couldn’t get momentum against the defending champion Aces and fell 105-78 behind a remarkably efficient shooting day from the visitors at Crypto.com Arena.
After posting the worst defense in the WNBA last season (88.2 points per game), the Sparks made a flurry of offseason moves prioritizing stopping opponents. It’s why they brought in Nneka Ogwumike, Ariel Atkins and Erica Wheeler.
But the Aces shot 63% from the floor and the Sparks had few answers.
“Today was on us,” Ogwumike said. “Defense is not something that gels. You either want to do it or you don’t.”
Reigning WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson led the Aces with 19 points, Jackie Young had 20 points and nine assists and Chennedy Carter added 22 points in her first WNBA game since 2024.
The Aces, who were coming off a 33-point blowout opening day loss to Phoenix on Saturday, scored 33 of their points in the third quarter and that’s when the wheels fell off for the Sparks. Las Vegas shot 73.7% during the quarter.
Sparks coach Lynne Roberts reacts during a 105-78 loss to the Las Vegas Aces at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday.
(Luiza Moraes / Getty Images)
“I think that was probably one of my worst one-on-one defending nights,” Ogwumike said. “But defense is definitely not something that you guys should be sitting here watching and hoping we get it down by the end of the month. You should see it on Wednesday.”
Kelsey Plum scored 11 of her 27 points in the fourth quarter, but by then the Aces had opened a 20-plus point lead.
The Sparks narrowed the deficit to one by halftime following an Ogwumike (19 points, 10 rebounds) three-pointer and backhand layup late in the second. But mostly, the Sparks’ defense activated, forcing 10 Las Vegas turnovers, led by two steals apiece from Atkins and Wheeler to fuel the comeback.
That energy was gone by the third quarter after the Aces started doubling Ogwumike, and aside from Plum, the Sparks’ offense had no answers.
“They punched us in the face,” Plum said. “We didn’t respond. And obviously, they’re a great team, right? When someone is shooting 63% it’s going to be hard to win that game. … I’m disappointed in our effort.”
Of the Sparks’ 19 turnovers, 10 came in the second half. The Aces scored 26 points off those giveaways, which made things even more difficult on the defense.
“Turnovers are, you’re just leading the other team to a fast break,” Roberts said. “And so we were giving them the turnovers, then there are two individual players who are expected to get a defensive stop after the turnover.”
They also need more from reserve center Cameron Brink (0 points, 0-for-0 shooting, three rebounds, three fouls in eight minutes) and Wheeler (two points, 1-for-11 in 20 minutes) going forward. Once Brink got in foul trouble, the Aces could continue blitzing Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby (12 points, five rebounds) without worry.
“We need Cam to produce,” Roberts said. “We need Cam to bring that defensive energy. We have so much confidence and belief in her. She’s got to get out on the floor with some confidence and do what she’s capable of doing, but we’re going to need her.”
If the Sparks have turned a corner from last season, they will need to find consistency on the defensive end of the floor. It won’t get easier with Caitlin Clark and Indiana (0-1) coming to town on Wednesday.
But the reason the Sparks built the roster that they did was to stop opponents after falling short of the postseason with the league’s third-best scoring team in the league.
“The good thing about this league is that we play in a day or two,” Plum said. “So, we’ll fix things.”
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Last August, when the NASCAR Cup Series went to the road course at Watkins Glen, Shane van Gisbergen captured the checkered flag.
Now SVG finds himself at the top of the oddsboard to win again when the series goes Bowling at The Glen on Sunday, May 10 (3 p.m. ET, FS1).
Let’s take a look at where the rest of the field sits as of May 10 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
NASCAR Cup Series Go Bowling at the Glen 2026
Shane van Gisbergen: -135 (bet $10 to win $17.41 total)
Connor Zilisch: +360 (bet $10 to win $46 total)
Christopher Bell: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Tyler Reddick: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Ty Gibbs: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Chris Buescher: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Michael McDowell: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Austin Cindric: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Ross Chastain: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Chase Elliott: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Carson Hocevar: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Ryan Blaney: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Chase Briscoe: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
William Byron: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Kyle Larson: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
AJ Allmendinger: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Joey Logano: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)
Kyle Busch: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
Denny Hamlin: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Alex Bowman: +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total)
Daniel Suarez: +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total)
Brad Keselowski: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Bubba Wallace: +13000 (bet $10 to win $1,310 total)
Ryan Preece: +30000 (bet $10 to win $3,010 total)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: +35000 (bet $10 to win $3,510 total)
Riley Herbst: +40000 (bet $10 to win $4,010 total)
Austin Dillon: +60000 (bet $10 to win $6,010 total)
Zane Smith: +60000 (bet $10 to win $6,010 total)
John Hunter Nemechek: +60000 (bet $10 to win $6,010 total)
Erik Jones: +60000 (bet $10 to win $6,010 total)
Todd Gilliland: +70000 (bet $10 to win $7,010 total)
Josh Berry: +70000 (bet $10 to win $7,010 total)
Noah Gragson: +80000 (bet $10 to win $8,010 total)
Cole Custer: +80000 (bet $10 to win $8,010 total)
Ty Dillon: +90000 (bet $10 to win $9,010 total)
Katherine Legge: +100000 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Josh Bilicki: +100000 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Cody Ware: +100000 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
The Favorite: Last year at Watkins Glen, Shane van Gisbergen finished eighth in Stage 1, 22nd in Stage 2 and led 38 laps on the day before getting into Victory Lane. And as it stands currently, SVG could use a win; the driver of the No. 97 car hasn’t won yet in 2026. He’s also 19th in the standings. However, he has two top 10s this year and one top-five finish. Bettors also might want to note that van Gisbergen won five of the six NASCAR road courses in 2025 and finished second at COTA earlier this year.
One to Watch: Another driver fans might want to keep their eyes on is Ryan Blaney. At The Glen in 2025, Blaney won the pole, finished seventh in Stage 1, won Stage 2 and finished the race sixth overall after leading 35 laps. On No. 12’s resume so far this year are seven top 10s, three top-five finishes and one win. He’s currently fourth in the standings.
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