Sports
As Netflix stock surges, an ‘anti-ESPN’ sports strategy emerges
Jake Paul fighting Mike Tyson, the NFL on Christmas Day and a Super Bowl-level Beyoncé performance turned out to be great for Netflix’s business.
The streaming juggernaut reported record new subscriber sign-ups in the last quarter of 2024 — nearly 19 million — bringing the total number of subscribers above 300 million. (As of Wednesday morning, Netflix stock is surging.)
The company was quick to point to the success of its late-year sports programming, including the Paul-Tyson boxing match and its NFL double-header on Christmas, which included a Beyoncé-fronted halftime show that Netflix also packaged on its own, ultimately drawing more viewers than the football games.
Market research firm Antenna estimated that Netflix drove more than 650,000 new subscribers in the days surrounding the NFL games. According to Antenna, the Paul-Tyson fight drove more than 1.4 million subscription sign-ups.
The company laid out its sports programming strategy in its letter to shareholders released Tuesday:
“We’re not focusing on acquiring rights to large regular season sports packages. Rather, our live strategy is all about delivering can’t-miss, special event programming,” the company said.
That positions Netflix as a sort of an “anti-ESPN.”
By design and necessity, ESPN spends its rights budget on amassing a huge volume of regular-season sports packages. The network’s currency is live games, so it spends prolifically on that programming. (This tonnage of live games will become even more important to ESPN as it launches its own direct-to-consumer sports platform — currently code-named “Flagship” — later this year.) On top of that, ESPN/ABC may have the most marquee events in the history of sports media with upcoming Super Bowls, The NBA Finals, the College Football Championship and the Stanley Cup Final, among others.
The luxurious position Netflix finds itself in is evident in its acquisition strategy. It doesn’t need all of the live sports — it just needs enough “big, memorable” (in its own words) live sports to keep its audience engaged.
With a market cap north of $370 billion — and growing, if Wednesday’s stock-price surge off Tuesday’s quarterly report is any indication — along with its massive global audience, Netflix can both pick and choose what it decides is “can’t-miss” and presumably outspend anyone in the market.
That is a big reason the Christmas Day football experiment was so important — both for Netflix and the NFL.
Netflix needed to test whether fans would jump from traditional NFL broadcasting platforms to stream games on Netflix, surely understanding that Amazon Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football had proved the concept.
Netflix went all out, hiring dozens of on-air personalities from other networks and, of course, paying Beyoncé to deliver a halftime show that would not have looked out of place at a Super Bowl. The payoff included being the most-watched NFL game ever on a streaming platform.
Netflix has the rights to do Christmas Day games again in 2025 — given Dec. 25 is a Thursday, they will be airing on the same day as one of Amazon Prime Video’s games.
The NFL, naturally, has to be thrilled: They get a deep-pocketed new entrant that can pay top dollar for rights fees, get the product in front of a global audience of a couple hundred million people and put on a broadcast that looks and feels similar to the one fans are used to.
Netflix is a natural (top) bidder for a new package of NFL games, whether that is a new “18th game,” an international package or something brand-new (like the NFL on Christmas Day, which used to be the province of the NBA).
Now layer in WWE. Netflix poached WWE’s Monday night live show and launched weekly shows earlier this month. While that would seem to fit the description of “large regular season sports package” it claimed to be side-stepping, Monday night WWE’s road show feels more like a “special event” than “multiple games a week.”
What qualifies as a sports-related “special event?” And also happens to be one of the few premium live-sports packages that are available right now?
UFC fights. Keep in mind that WWE and UFC share a parent company (TKO Holdings), so Netflix’s $10 billion investment in WWE could be a show of commitment related to future deals involving UFC. ESPN exclusively owns the full rights through next year. UFC will consider splitting the packages between multiple carriers, sources briefed on discussions told The Athletic.
Netflix also made a big splash last month, acquiring the rights to broadcast the Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031. It should not surprise anyone if and when Netflix uses that as a step on the way to acquiring the men’s World Cup that are next available in 2030.
As it showed with the Paul-Tyson fight and, earlier this year, the live “roast” of Tom Brady, Netflix’s live-programming team doesn’t lack the willingness to evaluate non-traditional ideas, the appetite to air them and the deepest of pockets to acquire them.
And in another interesting twist, Netflix’s presence in the sports space has shown that the leagues need the streamer more than Netflix needs them. This is 180 degrees different from the traditional networks.
ESPN, Fox, NBC and CBS probably would survive if they lost the NFL, but they would not be dominant forces in the sports entertainment culture. Netflix may have been helped by the NFL games, but, if it didn’t have those two Christmas games, it is hard to believe its earnings report would have been drastically different, given its steady output of shows like the second season of “Squid Game” and movies starring A-listers.
The same is true for Amazon. Its Prime Video service is the leader in sports among digital players with its NFL and NBA deals. However, if Amazon decided tomorrow — they’re not, for the record, as they have long-term deals — to drop sports, would they sell one less box of paper towels?
We are in the midst of a great re-bundling of how we watch sports. The biggest long-term challengers to ESPN’s supremacy and to the traditional networks’ top perch are Amazon and Netflix. While the leagues, like the NFL, really want the digital players to become more invested in their games, there is a long-term issue in play: Will Netflix turn more of its strategy to sports?
Whether Netflix gets UFC will be telling, and it is hard to imagine sports being anything but a boon for Netflix’s relatively new advertising tier.
How this all plays out long-term could have an impact on not only how you watch your games, but the financial makeup of sports.
(Photo by Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
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With the largest World Cup field in the history of the tournament, 32 of the 48 teams will be fighting for a spot in the knockout stage.
66.6% of nations will advance out of the group stage this summer, which is a massive upgrade from 50% in past World Cups. Because of this, sportsbooks have adjusted with less favorable odds.
Prior to the start of the tournament, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, England, and Germany entered with the strongest odds to advance from the group stage, supported by recent major-tournament success and talent-rich rosters.
All five nations are heavily favored at -10000 to advance to the knockout round.
The Spaniards are the defending European Champions while the Argentinians are looking to win back-to-back titles. Germany has not made it out of the group stage in the last two World Cups, but has always been a perennial contender— having won four titles in its history. And then of course there’s Brazil, which has more titles than any country with five.
Now, after the conclusion of the first day of the World Cup, Mexico has joined the group at the top. El Tri has surged to -10000 to advance to the knockout stage after initially being just -1400. Mexico’s huge leap up the oddsboard is a direct result of its dominating 2-0 win over South Africa.
With that in mind, let’s dive into the odds for each team to advance to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup as of June 12.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
Odds to Advance to Knockout Stage
Spain: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Argentina: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Brazil: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
England: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Mexico: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Germany: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Portugal: -5000 (bet $10 to win $10.20 total)
France: -5000 (bet $10 to win $10.20 total)
Belgium:-3500 (bet $10 to win $10.29 total)
South Korea: -2500 (bet $10 to win $10.40 total)
Switzerland: -1800 (bet $10 to win $10.56 total)
Netherlands: -1400 (bet $10 to win $10.71 total)
Morocco: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)
Colombia: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)
Uruguay: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)
Canada: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)
Ecuador: -900 (bet $10 to win $11.11 total)
Norway: -900 (bet $10 to win $11.11 total)
United States: -750 (bet $10 to win $11.33 total)
The U.S. men’s national team is currently -750 to advance from Group D (Photo by Omar Vega/USSF/Getty Images).
Croatia: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Austria: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Türkiye: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Ivory Coast: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Japan: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Egypt: -340 (bet $10 to win $12.94 total)
Algeria: -310 (bet $10 to win $13.23 total)
Scotland: -310 (bet $10 to win $13.23 total)
Senegal: -230 (bet $10 to win $14.35 total)
Sweden: -230 (bet $10 to win $1435 total)
Bosnia and Herzegovina: -220 (bet $10 to win $14.55 total)
Paraguay: -205 (bet $10 to win $14.88 total)
Iran: -200 (bet $10 to win $15 total)
Czechia: -165 (bet $10 to win $16.06 total)
Ghana: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
Australia: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
DR Congo: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Raúl Jiménez helped propel Mexico to a 2-0 win over South Africa in the opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Photo by Yair Gonzalez/Jam Media/Getty Images).
Saudi Arabia: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Tunisia: +140 (bet $10 to win $24 total)
New Zealand: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
Uzbekistan: +180 (bet $10 to win $28 total)
Cape Verde: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Panama: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Qatar: +275 (bet $10 to win $37.50 total)
South Africa: +320 (bet $10 to win $42 total)
Jordan +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Iraq: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Haiti: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Curaçao: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Cameron Brink said she’d appreciate some grace. She really would.
Sparks fans should give her some, because where else is she going to get it?
Certainly not from WNBA refs. Not from opponents with more to play for than ever. Certainly not from the game itself; basketball moves fast, and a bummer can become a bust in a blink.
But Brink, 24, is not on the brink of bust territory, no. Block that thought. Technically, it’s Year 3, but after a torn ACL derailed her as a rookie two summers ago, it’s practically like Year 2 for the former Stanford star. And by design, the WNBA is testing her confidence, her decision-making and her patience as she tries to reestablish herself as one of the WNBA’s best young players.
So, grace.
The recognizable 6-foot-4 forward — she’s the long-blond-haired hooper in the New Balance ads — was the No. 2 overall pick in 2024.
Now she’s her team’s No. 3 option in the post. She’s coming off the bench behind Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby for the Sparks, who are a modest 6-6 after wins this week over the expansion Portland Fire and the struggling Seattle Storm.
Against the Fire, Brink scored two points and picked up four fouls in nine minutes. Then she went to Seattle and had 15 points in 18 minutes but was pulled with more than five minutes left in the fourth quarter after getting her third, fourth and fifth fouls in 86 seconds. (WNBA players get six fouls before being disqualified.)
For the season, Brink has been called for 49 fouls in 208 minutes. A foul about every four minutes!
They’re silly fouls and they’re phantom calls. Egregious and ticky-tack. Costly and common. A real fouled-up buffet. She sets screens that get scrutinized as if by the most vigilant TSA agent. And sometimes, yes, she’s doing the accidental tripping. Other times, the officials are.
Her reputation precedes her, so everyone gets a superstar’s whistle when being defended by Brink. Opponents bake it into their game plans.
That can’t continue.
All that fouling is hindering Brink’s development because it’s robbing her of important in-game reps — which she needs, foremost, to figure out how to stop fouling.
Sparks forward Cameron Brink, left, blocks the shot of the Tempo’s Laura Juskaite during a game last month.
(Jeff Lewis / Associated Press)
“At the pro level,” said Tara VanDerveer, Brink’s coach at Stanford, “every young player always has a lot of work to do. And I saw her make a three. I see her block shots. She rebounds, she can handle the ball, she’s unselfish, she’s a terrific talent. But there’s always things players need to work on.”
We know what Brink’s thing is.
“She has to be disciplined,” VanDerveer said. “And if you want something so badly, if you want to be an All-Star someday or make the Olympic team, you’ve got to be dependable … and I think anyone can change, if it’s behavior they recognize is not in their best interests or not in their team’s best interests. It’s hard, but it’s something I think people can do.
“That’s what Cam is working on.”
And, VanDerveer added, “I’m really so excited that Nneka is there, because she will give her such great guidance and mentorship.”
And grace. Brink is getting that from Ogwumike — also a former Stanford star, the Sparks legend returned to L.A. this season after two seasons in Seattle — and her other teammates.
“I just do my best to lead by example,” Ogwumike, 35, said. “But then also let [Brink] know that she’s very capable, that she’s more than capable, which is exactly why she’s here with us and it’s exactly why we need her on this team.”
Sparks forward Cameron Brink, wearing a facemask, controls the ball while defended by Sun forward Raegan Beers.
(Joe Buglewicz / Getty Images)
But how long will Brink get grace from the Sparks in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately business of basketball?
The foul trouble tells us why a win-now team wouldn’t trust her, why the Sparks would give meaningful minutes to two veteran post players ahead of her. Why they wouldn’t prioritize Brink’s development alongside winning as they strive to snap a previously unthinkable five-year playoff drought.
And what about fans? How patient will you all be with a player who was drafted immediately after Caitlin Clark and five spots in front of Angel Reese?
These days, that might depend on what the parlay calls for.
Or, preferably, whether you remember Brink’s first 15 WNBA games. All starts, all signs pointing to stardom. She showed up in 2024 throwing lavish block parties. Her 2.3 blocks per game were message-sending spikes, like what Lisa Leslie used to enthrall Sparks crowds with.
From the jump, she had guys coming to games at Crypto.com Arena wearing her No. 22 jersey and little girls arriving in groups with No. 22 painted on their cheeks and “I love Cam Brink” signs in hand.
And then the torn ACL cost her 25 games of her rookie season and another 25 last season, plus her spot on the United States’ Olympic 3×3 women’s basketball team in Paris in 2024.
She had to start over. Lost a lot of ground. But you see that masked woman stuck on the Sparks’ bench for all but 17 minutes per game?
You can’t miss her. She’s looking uncomfortable in protective facial gear that either hinders her breathing or her peripheral vision, her only options to protect the torn septum she suffered in a victory over the Las Vegas Aces last month.
She’s the one with the 6-8 wingspan who’s averaging 9.2 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while shooting 52.1% from the field in her limited minutes.
She’s still Cameron Brink. Between fouls, she’s fluid and fast and covers more of the court than almost anyone in the WNBA, able to leap from defending guards to centers in a single bound.
“It’s just looking at every day as a new opportunity to learn and grow and not getting too bogged down when things don’t go exactly as you planned,” Brink told me. “Because more times than not, things are not going to go how you want them to. And that’s life. So I just want to be able to put my best effort out there every single night.
She knows what the Sparks need from her: “To perform, just come on the floor and compete.”
To prove she can stay on the floor to compete.
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When will Team USA lose in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Or, will it not lose at all?
Let’s check out the odds for the Americans’ stage of elimination at FanDuel Sportsbook, as of June 11.
Team USA — Stage of elimination odds
Last 32: +170 (bet $10 to win $27 total)
Last 16: +220 (bet $10 to win $32 total)
Group stage: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Quarterfinals: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Semifinals: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Runner-up: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Outright winner: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
The outlook appears to be … ho-hum?
If the odds ring true, the Americans are expected to make it out of the group stage but fall in the first knockout stage game.
How would that result stack up against previous results? Well, at the 2022 World Cup, Team USA made it to the Round of 16, which was viewed as a stellar accomplishment.
The U.S. men’s national team currently has 60-1 odds to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy this summer (Photo by Omar Vega/USSF/Getty Images).
In 2018, the USA did not qualify for the World Cup, and in 2014 and 2010, the Americans also made it to the Round of 16. Their best result this century occurred in 2002, when the Americans made it all the way to the quarterfinals before being eliminated.
In 1998, Team USA lost in the group stage, in 1994, it fell in the Round of 16, and in 1990, it also fell in the group stage.
With the expanded World Cup format, 32 teams will advance to the knockout stage (out of 48), giving teams a much better chance of getting out of the group stage than in previous tournaments. In past years, only 50% of the field advanced to the knockout round, but now 66.6% of teams will move on.
With that being said, anything less than a knockout round appearance on home soil would be viewed as a major failure this summer for Team USA.
The second result on the oddsboard is the “Last 16,” meaning the USA would make it out of the group stage and win one knockout stage game, before falling in the second knockout stage game. The third result is that the Americans failed to make it out of the group stage, and the fourth is that they made it to the quarterfinals, meaning they won two knockout stage games.
Making the semis, losing in the championship game and winning the championship are the three results with the longest odds.
The U.S. begins its World Cup journey on Friday as the Stars and Stripes face Paraguay at Los Angeles Stadium. Getting off to a fast start in the group is crucial for the team’s World Cup dreams of making a deep run this summer.
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