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If Gov. Greg Abbott’s dream of a historic property-tax break for Texans is to grow to be a actuality within the 2023 legislative session, the Republican-controlled Legislature might need to interrupt the state’s constitutional spending restrict for the subsequent two years.
The query is: Would they dare?
The Texas Structure limits the quantity of extra cash the state can spend each two-year finances cycle to the speed of the state’s financial development. Within the first public indication of how a lot tax cash lawmakers can add to the 2024-25 finances, the Texas Legislative Price range Board — a panel of legislators led by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Home Speaker Dade Phelan — used inhabitants development and inflation forecasts Wednesday to undertake a 12.3% estimated financial development price within the subsequent finances cycle.
Which means lawmakers can spend about $12.5 billion extra state tax {dollars} within the subsequent finances than they did within the present biennium earlier than the cap is busted, in accordance with present finances numbers. That restrict might go up if lawmakers cross a supplemental finances invoice early subsequent 12 months that will increase spending within the present biennium.
However that $12.5 billion determine is rather less than what it might price for lawmakers to maneuver ahead with Abbott’s purpose to make use of half the state’s estimated $27 billion money surplus, pushed largely by elevated gross sales tax brought on by inflation, on property-tax aid.
It’s anybody’s guess whether or not lawmakers would again that promise in its entirety, made by Abbott in August throughout a heated race for reelection. Whether or not doing so would set off the restrict will depend on a bunch of things, together with how effectively lawmakers are in a position to make use of finances methods to keep away from it.
If they will’t, then lawmakers might merely skirt the problem by spurning Abbott’s large plans, passing a a lot smaller property-tax aid plan that doesn’t attain the spending restrict, and even none in any respect — although by most accounts, the final possibility appears unlikely. Or they might vote by a easy majority to interrupt the cap.
It’s a call that’s by no means easy for lawmakers.
“Traditionally, spending limits exist for a motive,” mentioned John Hryhorchuk, senior vp of coverage and advocacy for the analysis group Texas 2036. “They’re the guardrails that present for fiscal sustainability for our state, so choices to bust the spending restrict have gravity to them.”
Nevertheless it’s a vote that even essentially the most ardent opponents of unrestricted authorities spending say is value making if it returns cash to Texans.
“Texans are being crushed by property taxes,” mentioned Matt Rinaldi, a former legislator and chair of the Republican Occasion of Texas. “The one acceptable use of funds over the spending cap is to supply property-tax aid to householders.”
Texas householders have a few of the highest property-tax payments within the nation, a byproduct of the state’s reliance on property taxes to pay for public faculties and the state’s lack of an revenue tax. To decrease property taxes on Texans, lawmakers would want to fund faculties at a better price in order that these districts might scale back the native tax burden on residents.
However Patrick mentioned after the Legislative Price range Board assembly that he wouldn’t assist busting the spending cap, which he mentioned Abbott’s plan would seemingly do. As an alternative, he mentioned, there are different methods to cross substantial aid, together with homestead exemptions and a deliberate proposal to make it simpler to spend extra {dollars} within the state’s wet day fund, with out busting the cap.
“For me, personally, busting the spending cap I believe units a really harmful precedent,” Patrick mentioned. “When you’ve achieved it, it’s straightforward to do it once more. … So I might not be in favor of busting the spending cap and I don’t suppose the members are.”
The constitutional spending restrict, which will be damaged by a easy majority, has been in place for greater than 50 years. A separate spending cap created within the 2021 legislative session applies to extra funding streams, equivalent to charges, however doesn’t depend property-tax aid towards the spending restrict. That cap wants a three-fifths vote in each chambers to interrupt and is among the many strongest legislative spending caps within the nation, analysts say. It was additionally set at 12.3% on Wednesday and would enable a barely bigger finances improve, in {dollars}, underneath these guidelines.
Subsequent session’s restrict, which is among the many highest that the LBB was contemplating on Wednesday, “leaves loads of room” for property-tax aid if lawmakers are conservative with the general finances, mentioned Vance Ginn, president of Ginn Financial Consulting and former chief economist for the Texas Public Coverage Basis, a conservative suppose tank.
“Whereas there will likely be loads of room underneath the determined spending restrict in Texas, the Legislature must be particularly prudent with taxpayer cash by freezing the finances in order that extra surplus {dollars} can be found to supply substantial property-tax aid to fight the affordability disaster pushed by D.C. and native governments,” he mentioned. “The main target must be on much less spending so there will be extra tax aid.”
State companies and universities throughout Texas are eyeing the excess and making their pitches for tens of billions in new cash for varied packages and unfulfilled wants — starting from bolstering psychological well being funding to constructing a brand new coaching facility for legislation enforcement. Collectively, these requests for brand new cash add as much as almost $20 billion.
That doesn’t embody proposed will increase of their base budgets for issues like public security. It additionally doesn’t embody continued funding for the governor’s Operation Lone Star border initiative, almost half of which has been paid for outdoor of the appropriations course of with {dollars} swept out of different companies’ budgets to get replaced with federal funds. Abbott has not mentioned how a lot he’ll request for that program but.
However the single greatest wishlist merchandise described by the state’s GOP management to date has been tax aid.
“Property tax must be on the prime of the record. You begin there, and you’re employed down,” Patrick mentioned Wednesday.
Price range writers have many years of expertise writing budgets in such a approach that they will often keep away from busting spending limits — however the greater the quantity, the tougher it’s to sofa it in finances strikes like cuts to different companies, new devoted funding streams, constitutional amendments and federal funding conversions.
So might conservative voters — a bunch that doesn’t sometimes approve of limitless authorities spending — be satisfied that breaking the spending restrict is a good suggestion?
Whereas Patrick asserts that it might be a tough promote, the conservative grassroots say it may be achieved.
“Completely for tax aid functions,” mentioned James Quintero, coverage director for the conservative Texas Public Coverage Basis. “On each side of the aisle, you may have large, daring concepts being pitched, which indicators to me that we’re in for a transformational tax reform session the place all sides agree that significant motion is required proper now, they usually’re on the point of take it.”
However lawmakers might danger the ire of voters who assist utilizing the excess to boost instructor pay and retirement advantages, higher funding for faculties and social packages, or addressing different underfunded wants, mentioned Eva DeLuna, finances analyst on the progressive suppose tank Each Texan.
“Legislators at all times have a more durable time after they have unallocated income as a result of then they should provide you with a motive why it’s not OK to … cope with an present duty,” she mentioned.
Disclosure: Each Texan, Texas 2036 and Texas Public Coverage Basis have been monetary supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan information group that’s funded partly by donations from members, foundations and company sponsors. Monetary supporters play no function within the Tribune’s journalism. Discover a full record of them right here.
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As Congress returns from recess today, Democrats are in for a tough family conversation. Four senior House Democrats said on a private call yesterday that they believe President Biden should drop out of the 2024 race. Others have publicly criticized those calling for Biden to step aside. Meanwhile, Biden campaigned in Pennsylvania yesterday like a man on a mission.
Democrats from across the country are weighing in on whether President Joe Biden should remain the party’s nominee for president.
SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images/AFP
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SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images/AFP
Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge stemming from two fatal 737 Max crashes in 2018 and 2019, the Justice Department said in a court filing on Sunday. As part of the plea deal, Boeing will pay a $243.6 million fine, invest upwards of $450 million toward safety and compliance programs and be on probation for three years.
France’s far-right party fell far short of getting a majority after a historic number of voters participated in the country’s snap elections. The country saw a 67% voter turnout.
Beryl made landfall in Texas this morning as a Category 1 Hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said in its 5:00 a.m. ET update. More than 100 counties are under a state disaster declaration, and Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said yesterday more may be added. More than 2,500 responders have been dispatched across the state.
If you order more food than everyone else, how do you split the check? Chef and writer Kiki Aranita offers advice.
Malaka Gharib/NPR
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Malaka Gharib/NPR
Dining out with your friends is all fun and games until it’s time to pay for your meal. Splitting the bill is a fine art. New York Magazine food editor Kiki Aranita says there should be “a sense of equality in how the check is divvied up” when the meal ends. She offers advice on how to keep things “fair and square”:
Bolivian women skateboarders — wearing traditional garb — demonstrate their skills on the half pipe.
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Indigenous arts and culture from across Latin America were on display at this year’s Smithsonian Folklife Festival. From an all-female Bolivian skateboarding crew to artists singing and painting to weaving, people from the Latin American contingent at the festival shared their stories and expertise with excited onlookers like 2-year-old first-time skateboarder Poppy Moore. One of the artists NPR’s team met was Ubaldo Sanchez from Guatemala. His portrait of former President Obama was selected for his White House collection, and he successfully painted a giant kite by the festival’s closing.
📷 See photos from the festival and read about the special connection Sanchez found with NPR’s Marc Silver.
Jennifer Privett takes her Himalayan cat Jean Claude out for a stroll in San Francisco.
Chloe Veltman/NPR
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Chloe Veltman/NPR
This newsletter was edited by Majd Al-Waheidi. Anandita Bhalerao contributed.
NORTH TEXAS — Sunday night, Beryl officially became a Hurricane again. North Texas can expect winds and heavy rainfall. Flash flooding is possible.
12 a.m. – 2 a.m.: If any isolated storms to our northwest hold together Sunday night, this would be the timeframe they could reach DFW.
2 a.m. – 5 a.m.: Isolated stray hit/miss showers could pop up across the region.
10 a.m. – 3 p.m.: Heavier showers and thunderstorms are possible in the metroplex and especially points to the east. If more showers and storms develop between the frontal boundary and Beryl, they could drop fast-hitting, heavy rainfall.
3 p.m. – 6 p.m.: Remaining activity should diminish or exit East/Northeast.
The latest track shifts a weakening Beryl further east of DFW.
All in all, the heaviest rainfall is trending east of the metroplex with a steep drop-off to the west of Beryl’s potential track. However, due to the interaction with the frontal boundary moving in from the northwest and Beryl, there certainly could be locally much higher amounts if stronger storms develop right over DFW.
Starting late week and amplifying into next week, a large upper-level ridge of high pressure will sit over the south and expand across the central and western United States. We could see extreme heat build back in for the extended forecast as a result.
For the 7-day forecast, Beryl and its associated activity exit the region quickly followed by more heat.
Amid his first visit to Taiwan, Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced on Sunday the opening of a Texas-Taiwan trade representative office in Taipei to strengthen business and economic ties between the state and island.
Taiwan-based companies have been expanding into Texas for years, specifically in the semiconductor and petrochemical industries. Totaling $21.3 billion in 2023, Taiwan is Texas’ seventh-largest trade partner, according to Abbott.
One of the notable expansions is by GlobalWafers, a Taiwan-based semiconductor silicon wafer company, which announced in 2022 plans to build a state-of-the-art silicon wafer factory in Sherman, Texas. This facility, expected to be the first of its kind in the United States in over two decades, aims to address the semiconductor supply chain issues in the U.S. by reducing the reliance on imported silicon wafers from Asia. This project is anticipated to create around 1,500 jobs and significantly bolster the state’s local economy.
During a visit to Taiwan on Sunday, Abbott announced the opening of the State of Texas Taiwan Office (STTO), making it the 23rd U.S. state to open an office in Taipei. The STTO, which will operate under Texas’ Economic Development & Tourism Office, was announced in an effort to strengthen business and economic ties between the state and island, with the Republican governor also signing a letter of intent.
Newsweek has reached out to Abbott’s office via email for comment.
SUZANNE CORDEIRO/AFP/Getty Images
“We understand, both in Texas and in the United States, the importance of a strong Taiwan for the future of the entire globe. One of the best things that we can do to strengthen Taiwan and strengthen its future is by expanding our economic ties, so that Taiwan grows even stronger economically,” Abbott said on a stage with Taiwan Minister of Economic Affairs Jyh-Huei Kuo.
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Abbott praised the opening of the office and wrote on Sunday morning, “Taiwan President Lai welcomed our Texas delegation in Taipei. We also announced the opening of a trade representative office for the State of Texas. We do BILLIONS in trade with Taiwan. The country was very hospitable.”
Taiwan President Lai welcomed our Texas delegation in Taipei.
We also announced the opening of a trade representative office for the State of Texas.
We do BILLIONS in trade with Taiwan. The country was very hospitable.https://t.co/RKkxlOHjT0
— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) July 7, 2024
According to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, Texas is an important trading partner as the Lone Star state is the ninth largest export market, with exports exceeding $11.5 billion in 2023.
“During this trip you will open the state of Texas-Taiwan office and sign an economic development statement of intent. I assure that the office will create new and trailblazing opportunities for an even stronger collaboration between Taiwanese and US businesses,” Lai said, according to Taiwan News.
However, the announcement comes as tensions between Taiwan and China continue to grow.
In May, Lai faced China’s largest-scale military exercises in nearly two years. It comes as a response to Lai’s inauguration speech as he asserted that “the Republic of China Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation,” adding it is “an important link in the global chain of democracies.” While Taiwan has been independently governed since 1949, China views the island as part of its territory and hasn’t ruled out the use of force to unify the nations.
In addition, China has said it would launch a war if Taiwan were ever to officially declare independence. Lai, like his predecessor, former President Tsai Ing-wen, has maintained that there is no need to do so, as Taiwan is already an independent state.
Last week, China issued a no-sail zone warning in waters near Taiwan.
Maritime Safety Administration of China’s eastern Zhejiang province issued the navigational warning for a “military exercises” in the East China Sea from Wednesday to Friday as China’s military deployed 22 aircraft and six vessels.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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