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Texas Hail(ed) 2023 a Record-Breaking Year for Insured Losses

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Texas Hail(ed) 2023 a Record-Breaking Year for Insured Losses


How severe storms in Texas and population growth are driving hail damage

Severe convective storms — also known as severe thunderstorms — caused tens of billions of dollars of insured losses across the U.S. in 2023.

Tornadoes, straight-line winds (including derechos) and hail are the damage-causing agents of severe thunderstorms, but it was the latter that dominated the loss landscape in 2023.

Hail of at least one inch in diameter battered more than 10 million homes across the U.S. Two million of those homes were in Texas alone.

Historically, risk managers have considered severe thunderstorms a secondary peril given the high-frequency but low-severity nature of these events. However, hail is quickly becoming an expensive peril that should be modeled with the same scrutiny as the “big ones” like hurricanes and earthquakes.

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In 2023 there were 141 days with large hail (greater than two inches), which is more days than any year since 2003. Insured loss figures have also been increasing. This significant increase is the result of two interrelated factors: climate patterns and the increasing scale of homes.

Understand 2024 Severe Convective Storm Season Risk

2024 SCS Risk Report

Does Changing Weather Lead to Texas-Sized Hail?

There is a direct link between a warming atmosphere and weather pattern volatility. Annual or multiannual climate phenomena, such as the shift to El Niño during the spring of 2023 following multiple years of La Niña, likely influenced last year’s severe convective storm activity. This influence was compounded by record-breaking sea-surface temperatures and the subtropical jet stream, a belt of winds located within the tropics.

While the evidence to connect weather patterns and the number of intense storms is compelling, it is difficult to determine if long-term atmospheric changes are the primary driver of increased severe thunderstorm activity without a more extensive historical record.

Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that evolving climate risk is changing historical patterns, and as a result, has the potential to influence the impacts that severe convective storms can have on properties in future climate scenarios. 

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Affordability Means Texas Weather and Hailstorms

In conjunction with the volatile climate, more people are moving to hail-prone areas like Texas due to the allure of more affordable homes.

“Given how expansive Texas is, it is way more likely hail falls on the ground avoiding homes, office buildings or farms,” said CoreLogic’s Director of Catastrophe Response Jon Schneyer. “But in 2023, many of the largest hailstorms happened to hit major cities in Texas like the Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin areas. When that happens, losses can add up quickly.”

Texas has been attracting newcomers due to its low cost of living, strong economy, and job opportunities. Historically, substantial portions of Texas were sparsely populated, especially in the rural areas where hail is more frequent and severe. However, in recent years, the urban and suburban areas of Texas have been expanding rapidly, creating more demand for housing and infrastructure.

According to a CoreLogic economic analysis, Texas has been home to some of the fastest-growing cities over the past five years. In 2019, and again in 2020, more people moved to Austin than left the metro area. While this trend flipped from 2021 to 2023, there was a strong inter-metro migration pattern from Austin to San Antonio, which saw the fourth-largest influx of residents in 2023. Similarly, Houston grew rapidly and had the third-highest rate of in-migration in the U.S.

Everything Is Bigger in Texas — Including Costs

Despite the increasing number of migrants to this low-cost state, both construction and labor costs are going up. This means that even in Texas, houses are getting pricier. They are also bigger.

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Across the U.S., the size of single-family homes has increased in the decades following 1980. In 1985, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data showed that the median square footage for single-family homes was 1,610. By 2022, the median size of a new, single-family home was 2,383 square feet, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This means that more roof area, windows, and siding are exposed to hail impacts. And the materials for these repairs are increasing in price.

“Areas where people are building bigger, more expensive homes were hit hard,” Schneyer said. “On top of that, inflationary pressures on materials and labor are really driving up individual claims. What might’ve been a $2,000 to $4,000 roof repair 10 years ago could be twice that or more now. So that will really inflate insured losses.”

Inflation has also played a role in driving up the costs of reconstruction, although it has stabilized in recent months. However, asphalt shingles, one of the most common roof-type materials used throughout the U.S., experienced a 40% cost increase over the past five years. Similarly, the cost of ceramic tiles increased by 26% since 2018.

Compounding the increasing square footage that is exposed to Texas weather hailstorms is the challenge associated with finding skilled labor to make the necessary repairs. Since the Great Recession of 2006 – 2010, there has been a persistent reduction in employees entering the construction trades. The result is that the pace of labor attempts to match demand but is perpetually racing to catch up, allowing for premium prices to dominate the market.

Texas Hail Is a Year-Round Peril

Further straining the equation for insurers is the fact that hail is a year-round risk. In May, Texas faced a slew of storms in the lead up to June when CoreLogic estimated that in one week alone, straight-line winds and hail generated between $7 billion and $10 billion in insured losses. Then in September, a hailstorm hit the greater Austin metro with hail stones the size of softballs barreling down on the highly populated area. October then brought large hail to the Lubbock area.

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The unprecedented scale of insured losses has insurers and homeowners across the U.S. reconsidering the risk associated with these seasonal storms.

One opportunity to help reduce the vulnerability of its homes to hail damage and lower the costs of reconstruction associated with severe convective storms is the implementation of building codes.

By implementing and enforcing stricter building codes, insurers writing in Texas can gain assurance that mitigating measures — such as using impact-resistant roofing materials, reinforced windows, and durable siding — are routinely recognized.

Research, property data, stringent building codes, and a commitment to preparedness are all lessons that insurers and homeowners can glean from 2023 to get ready to mitigate property risk for the 2024 season.

Understand 2024 Severe Convective Storm Season Risk

2024 SCS Risk Report

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The CoreLogic statements and information in this blog post may not be reproduced or used in any form without express written permission. While all the CoreLogic statements and information are believed to be accurate, CoreLogic makes no representation or warranty as to the completeness or accuracy of the statements and information and assumes no responsibility whatsoever for the information and statements or any reliance thereon. CoreLogic® and Marshall & Swift® are the registered trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.



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Pleasant Christmas weather for North Texas before storms return Thursday

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Pleasant Christmas weather for North Texas before storms return Thursday


Pleasant Christmas weather for North Texas before storms return Thursday – CBS Texas

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First Alert meteorologist Brittany Rainey has the latest forecast.

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Texas A&M vs. USC Prediction, Odds, Picks – December 27, 2024

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Texas A&M vs. USC Prediction, Odds, Picks – December 27, 2024


Data Skrive

The Las Vegas Bowl features a battle between the Texas A&M Aggies (who are 3.5-point favorites) and the USC Trojans on December 27, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The over/under is set at 52.

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Facing the Texas Longhorns in their most recent game, the Aggies lost 17-7. Last time out, the Trojans fell to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, with 49-35 being the final score.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Joel Klatt explains how ‘USC is spiraling and in trouble’ | The Herd

FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt joins Colin Cowherd to discuss USC losing 19 players to the transfer portal and why it is troubling.

Texas A&M vs. USC Game Information & Odds

  • When: Friday, December 27, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada
  • TV: ESPN
  • Live Box Score on FOX Sports

More College Football Predictions

Texas A&M vs USC Betting Information updated as of December 25, 2024, 2:45 a.m. ET.
Favorite Spread (Odds) Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Moneyline Under Moneyline
Texas A&M -3.5 (-111) -180 +149 52 -109 -111

Texas A&M vs. USC Prediction

  • Pick ATS:

    Texas A&M (-3.5)

  • Pick OU: Under (52)
  • Prediction: Texas A&M 28, USC 24

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Texas A&M Aggies vs. the USC Trojans game on FOX Sports!

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Texas A&M vs. USC Betting Insights

  • Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Aggies 28, Trojans 24.
  • The Aggies have a 64.3% chance to claim victory in this meeting per the moneyline’s implied probability. The Trojans hold a 40.2% implied probability.
  • Texas A&M has compiled a 3-9-0 record against the spread this season.
  • USC has put together a 7-5-0 record against the spread this season.

Texas A&M vs. USC: 2024 Stats Comparison

Texas A&M USC
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 30.3 (52) 29.8 (55)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 21.2 (23) 23.5 (47)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 13 (28) 18 (71)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 17 (61) 16 (69)

Texas A&M 2024 Key Players

Name Position Stats
Marcel Reed QB 1,572 YDS (61.1%) / 12 TD / 4 INT
501 RUSH YDS / 6 RUSH TD / 45.5 RUSH YPG
Le’Veon Moss RB 769 YDS / 10 TD / 85.4 YPG / 6.4 YPC
10 REC / 141 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 17.6 REC YPG
Amari Daniels RB 661 YDS / 8 TD / 55.1 YPG / 4.8 YPC
Noah Thomas WR 34 REC / 545 YDS / 6 TD / 45.4 YPG
Taurean York LB 57 TKL / 6 TFL / 2.5 SACK / 1 INT
Nic Scourton DL 29 TKL / 11 TFL / 4 SACK
Will Lee III DB 37 TKL / 0 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD
Dalton Brooks DB 44 TKL / 5 TFL / 1 SACK

USC 2024 Key Players

Name Position Stats
Jo’Quavious Marks RB 1,133 YDS / 9 TD / 94.4 YPG / 5.7 YPC
47 REC / 321 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 29.2 REC YPG
Miller Moss QB 2,555 YDS (64.4%) / 18 TD / 9 INT
-18 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / -2 RUSH YPG
Ja’Kobi Lane WR 36 REC / 398 YDS / 9 TD / 36.2 YPG
Jayden Maiava QB 906 YDS (61.2%) / 7 TD / 2 INT
49 RUSH YDS / 4 RUSH TD / 5.4 RUSH YPG
Easton Mascarenas LB 84 TKL / 4 TFL / 3 SACK / 2 INT
Kamari Ramsey DB 44 TKL / 4 TFL / 2 SACK
Mason Cobb LB 61 TKL / 2 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD
Jaylin Smith DB 49 TKL / 3 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Texas battered by quarter-sized hail and heavy winds in Christmas Eve storm

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Texas battered by quarter-sized hail and heavy winds in Christmas Eve storm


What’s New?

Texas is being battered by huge hailstones the size of quarters, powerful winds of up to 65mph and thunderstorms on Christmas Eve.

Why It Matters

The winter storms come as many Americans traveled home just in time for the holidays.

The American Automobile Association (AAA) predicted a record-breaking year for holiday travel, with more than 119 million expected to hit the roads and the skies.

Last weekend was expected to be the busiest travel period, but Texans who left their travel to Christmas Eve may have been faced with hailstorms, flooded roadways and even potential tornadoes.

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The storms are predicted to continue until Christmas Day, meaning Texans are likely in for a wet, not a white Christmas, this year.

What To Know

The National Weather Service (NWS) has placed much of Texas under severe thunderstorm warnings after a winter storm brought heavy rain and strong winds to the state today.

A flash flood warning was issued in the Fort Worth, Texas, area on Tuesday while a tornado warning was also issued for the southeast region of the state as forecasters warned of multiple tornadoes, winds of up to 65mph and hail of up to two inches diameter.

Many Texans have been sharing footage and images of large hailstones that landed in their backyards. So far, there have been no reports of serious damage from the hailstorm.

A ground stop was issued at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday afternoon amid the severe weather.

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The NWS has also warned that the environment “will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line.”

Supercells refer to rotating thunderstorms that can last for hours, travel hundreds of miles and often produce tornadoes.

What People Are Saying

National Weather Service said in a statement earlier today, “A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas.”

One Cypress, Texas resident, who shared a video of huge hailstones bouncing off the ground in her backyard, wrote on X, “It is bonkers at my home right now in Cypress, TX. Suburb of Houston. Major hail and rain.”

Meredith Seaver, another Cypress, Texas, resident shared a picture of huge hailstones, and asked, “It’s a Christmas miracle?”

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Forecaster Max Velocity said on X, “NASTY LINE OF STORMS will move into SE Texas tonight, including Houston! Damaging winds, hail, and a tornado will be possible. Santa will have to navigate around these storms!”

What Happens Next?

The storm’s heavy rain and strong winds are expected to continue until 5 a.m. CST.

The National Weather Service has placed regions of Texas under severe thunderstorm warnings until 8 p.m. CST, with severe thunderstorm watches issued for parts of Texas until 12 a.m. CST.

Light rain is expected on Christmas Day and through Thursday while another storm system is predicted to move into the region on Friday, bringing continued rain through Saturday.

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