Texas
Texas Hail(ed) 2023 a Record-Breaking Year for Insured Losses
How severe storms in Texas and population growth are driving hail damage
Severe convective storms — also known as severe thunderstorms — caused tens of billions of dollars of insured losses across the U.S. in 2023.
Tornadoes, straight-line winds (including derechos) and hail are the damage-causing agents of severe thunderstorms, but it was the latter that dominated the loss landscape in 2023.
Hail of at least one inch in diameter battered more than 10 million homes across the U.S. Two million of those homes were in Texas alone.
Historically, risk managers have considered severe thunderstorms a secondary peril given the high-frequency but low-severity nature of these events. However, hail is quickly becoming an expensive peril that should be modeled with the same scrutiny as the “big ones” like hurricanes and earthquakes.
In 2023 there were 141 days with large hail (greater than two inches), which is more days than any year since 2003. Insured loss figures have also been increasing. This significant increase is the result of two interrelated factors: climate patterns and the increasing scale of homes.
Understand 2024 Severe Convective Storm Season Risk
2024 SCS Risk Report
Does Changing Weather Lead to Texas-Sized Hail?
There is a direct link between a warming atmosphere and weather pattern volatility. Annual or multiannual climate phenomena, such as the shift to El Niño during the spring of 2023 following multiple years of La Niña, likely influenced last year’s severe convective storm activity. This influence was compounded by record-breaking sea-surface temperatures and the subtropical jet stream, a belt of winds located within the tropics.
While the evidence to connect weather patterns and the number of intense storms is compelling, it is difficult to determine if long-term atmospheric changes are the primary driver of increased severe thunderstorm activity without a more extensive historical record.
Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that evolving climate risk is changing historical patterns, and as a result, has the potential to influence the impacts that severe convective storms can have on properties in future climate scenarios.
Affordability Means Texas Weather and Hailstorms
In conjunction with the volatile climate, more people are moving to hail-prone areas like Texas due to the allure of more affordable homes.
“Given how expansive Texas is, it is way more likely hail falls on the ground avoiding homes, office buildings or farms,” said CoreLogic’s Director of Catastrophe Response Jon Schneyer. “But in 2023, many of the largest hailstorms happened to hit major cities in Texas like the Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin areas. When that happens, losses can add up quickly.”
Texas has been attracting newcomers due to its low cost of living, strong economy, and job opportunities. Historically, substantial portions of Texas were sparsely populated, especially in the rural areas where hail is more frequent and severe. However, in recent years, the urban and suburban areas of Texas have been expanding rapidly, creating more demand for housing and infrastructure.
According to a CoreLogic economic analysis, Texas has been home to some of the fastest-growing cities over the past five years. In 2019, and again in 2020, more people moved to Austin than left the metro area. While this trend flipped from 2021 to 2023, there was a strong inter-metro migration pattern from Austin to San Antonio, which saw the fourth-largest influx of residents in 2023. Similarly, Houston grew rapidly and had the third-highest rate of in-migration in the U.S.
Everything Is Bigger in Texas — Including Costs
Despite the increasing number of migrants to this low-cost state, both construction and labor costs are going up. This means that even in Texas, houses are getting pricier. They are also bigger.
Across the U.S., the size of single-family homes has increased in the decades following 1980. In 1985, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data showed that the median square footage for single-family homes was 1,610. By 2022, the median size of a new, single-family home was 2,383 square feet, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This means that more roof area, windows, and siding are exposed to hail impacts. And the materials for these repairs are increasing in price.
“Areas where people are building bigger, more expensive homes were hit hard,” Schneyer said. “On top of that, inflationary pressures on materials and labor are really driving up individual claims. What might’ve been a $2,000 to $4,000 roof repair 10 years ago could be twice that or more now. So that will really inflate insured losses.”
Inflation has also played a role in driving up the costs of reconstruction, although it has stabilized in recent months. However, asphalt shingles, one of the most common roof-type materials used throughout the U.S., experienced a 40% cost increase over the past five years. Similarly, the cost of ceramic tiles increased by 26% since 2018.
Compounding the increasing square footage that is exposed to Texas weather hailstorms is the challenge associated with finding skilled labor to make the necessary repairs. Since the Great Recession of 2006 – 2010, there has been a persistent reduction in employees entering the construction trades. The result is that the pace of labor attempts to match demand but is perpetually racing to catch up, allowing for premium prices to dominate the market.
Texas Hail Is a Year-Round Peril
Further straining the equation for insurers is the fact that hail is a year-round risk. In May, Texas faced a slew of storms in the lead up to June when CoreLogic estimated that in one week alone, straight-line winds and hail generated between $7 billion and $10 billion in insured losses. Then in September, a hailstorm hit the greater Austin metro with hail stones the size of softballs barreling down on the highly populated area. October then brought large hail to the Lubbock area.
The unprecedented scale of insured losses has insurers and homeowners across the U.S. reconsidering the risk associated with these seasonal storms.
One opportunity to help reduce the vulnerability of its homes to hail damage and lower the costs of reconstruction associated with severe convective storms is the implementation of building codes.
By implementing and enforcing stricter building codes, insurers writing in Texas can gain assurance that mitigating measures — such as using impact-resistant roofing materials, reinforced windows, and durable siding — are routinely recognized.
Research, property data, stringent building codes, and a commitment to preparedness are all lessons that insurers and homeowners can glean from 2023 to get ready to mitigate property risk for the 2024 season.
Understand 2024 Severe Convective Storm Season Risk
2024 SCS Risk Report
The CoreLogic statements and information in this blog post may not be reproduced or used in any form without express written permission. While all the CoreLogic statements and information are believed to be accurate, CoreLogic makes no representation or warranty as to the completeness or accuracy of the statements and information and assumes no responsibility whatsoever for the information and statements or any reliance thereon. CoreLogic® and Marshall & Swift® are the registered trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
Texas is planning its grid around an unprecedented wave of AI-driven power demand that the state’s energy regulator says may not fully materialize on projected timelines.
In a recent filing to the Public Utility Commission of Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) projected statewide power demand could surge to nearly 368 GW by 2032 – more than four times the state’s current peak demand record of 85.5 GW. But the filing also contains an unusual warning from the grid operator itself.
“ERCOT has concerns with using the preliminary load forecast values for the Reliability Assessment and any other transmission and resource adequacy analysis,” the organization wrote in its April 2026 long-term load forecast filing.
The organization added that it may seek adjustments to the forecast based on “actual historical realization rates or other objective, credible, independent information.”
ERCOT has already begun adjusting for realization risk internally. In its 2025 long-term load forecast report, the grid operator said the “average peak consumption per site was 49.8% of the requested MW” and applied that factor to projected non-crypto data center load additions in some planning models.
ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said the forecast reflects “higher-than-expected future load growth” tied to changing large-load planning dynamics.
Texas has emerged as a hotspot for data center growth, with numerous new projects reshaping the energy market and challenging grid capacity. (Image: Alamy)
Texas Developers Race Ahead of Grid Capacity
Texas has emerged as a key data center market, driven by its abundant land, competitive energy prices, and favorable regulatory environment. This combination has positioned the state as a magnet for hyperscale operators and AI infrastructure investments. The state is estimated to account for around 15% of all data center connectivity in the US.
Recent and proposed AI data center campuses tied to OpenAI, Oracle, Meta, Crusoe, CoreWeave, Soluna, and other hyperscale operators are reshaping Texas grid planning. Developers have proposed large campuses across North Texas, Abilene, West Texas, and the Houston corridor, many requiring hundreds of megawatts of capacity and, in some cases, dedicated onsite generation to bypass interconnection delays. That buildout pushed ERCOT’s non-crypto data center forecast above 228 GW by 2032.
Developers are continuing to pursue Texas aggressively because ERCOT still offers faster timelines and more flexible market structures than many competing regions. Several proposed campuses pair AI infrastructure with onsite gas generation, colocated power assets, or flexible-load arrangements to navigate mounting transmission constraints.
Utilities across the US are grappling with AI-driven electricity growth, but ERCOT’s projections stand apart for both scale and uncertainty. PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest grid operator, expects summer peak demand to climb above 241 GW over the next 15 years as data centers and electrification expand. ERCOT, by contrast, projects demand potentially reaching nearly 368 GW by 2032, driven largely by proposed non-crypto data center loads. At the same time, the grid operator openly questions how much of that demand will materialize on schedule.
Bigger Than Texas
Similar pressures are emerging elsewhere. In California, CAISO’s latest transmission plan cited “data center load growth” as a driver of major grid upgrades and described interconnection volumes as “unmanageable” before recent queue reforms.
A recent Grid Strategies report reached a similar conclusion nationally, warning that the “data center portion of utility load forecasts is likely overstated by roughly 25 GW” compared with market-based deployment estimates.
Ihab Osman, an independent strategist specializing in data center and other mission-critical infrastructure, said the distinction is less about “real” versus “fake” AI demand and more about “announced versus deliverable demand.”
“A large share of the current AI/data center planned load should be treated as paper megawatts until it is validated through physical gates,” Osman said, citing factors including site control, transmission deliverability, generation availability, turbine and transformer supply, permitting, financing, and credible energization schedules.
Osman said ERCOT’s forecast is best understood as “a stress-test map, not as a fait accompli build map.”
Separating ’Paper Megawatts’ From Real Demand
The filing shows Texas regulators and grid planners struggling to distinguish operating AI infrastructure from a rapidly expanding pipeline of proposed projects.
“The vast majority” of ERCOT’s projected load growth comes from submissions provided by transmission and distribution utilities, according to the filing. Those requests include hyperscale AI campuses, GPU clusters, and other large industrial loads seeking future grid capacity reservations.
Alison Silverstein, a former senior adviser to the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said “a large proportion” of projects in ERCOT’s large-load interconnection queue have already been canceled, particularly among smaller developers facing long interconnection delays and high turbine and transformer costs.
Forecasts Collide With Physical Infrastructure Limits
ERCOT has also signaled that many projects may not materialize on the timelines shaping transmission planning.
The grid operator said summer 2026 peak demand is likely to land between roughly 90.5 GW and 98 GW – far below the preliminary 112 GW figure embedded in the long-term forecast. ERCOT said it appears “unlikely” that new large-load projects and existing site expansions will ramp quickly enough to push demand that high this year.
The filing suggests uncertainty around AI-related load growth is beginning to influence broader infrastructure planning assumptions. By 2032, ERCOT projects non-crypto data centers reaching 228 GW of demand, compared with just 9 GW from cryptocurrency mining and roughly 3 GW each from hydrogen/e-fuels and oil-and-gas-related industrial growth.
The move also suggests the regulator is no longer simply forecasting AI-driven growth, but also working to determine how much of the proposed boom can actually be financed, supplied, interconnected, and energized before utilities commit billions to long-lived infrastructure.
AUSTIN, Texas — Bravo is developing a new reality series set in the Texas Hill Country, the network announced on Instagram Monday.
“Secrets, Lies, Texas Wives” would follow a group of women in Boerne.
According to the network’s description, the series centers on “a tight-knit circle of glamorous women” navigating family life, ranching, and social obligations in a community rooted in rodeo and tradition. They promise drama with “forbidden romances” and relationship angst.
No premiere date or cast have been announced.
If picked up, the series would join Bravo’s long-running portfolio of region-specific reality franchises, which includes the “Real Housewives” lineup.
AUSTIN, Texas — With the average price of a gallon of gas in Texas topping $4, some leaders from Austin to Washington, D.C., are backing a temporary pause on gas taxes as a way to deliver relief.
Veronica Valdez Rodriguez was pumping gas at a southeast Austin station on Tuesday. She said the rising costs are becoming unmanageable.
“They’re sky high,” Rodriguez said. “I can barely get by, you know? It’s too expensive.”
She said she is spending $40 more every week on gas.
According to AAA Texas, the average cost of a regular gallon of fuel stood at over $4.01 in the Austin area on Tuesday, $1.24 higher than the average one year ago.
President Donald Trump said he is working to pause the federal gas tax, which is 18 cents per gallon.
A reporter asked the president on Monday how long the tax would be suspended.
“Until it’s appropriate. It’s a small percentage, but it’s, you know, it’s still money,” Trump said.
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In Texas, an 18-cent-per-gallon pause could add up to savings of about $2 to $3 on an average tank of gas.
Support for a federal pause is coming from both parties. State Rep. and U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico (D-Austin) backed the idea last month.
“Lowering prices at the pump should be a bipartisan commitment,” Talarico said in a statement Monday.
Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn said he didn’t know the details of the president’s plan.
“There’s a difference between a temporary suspension and a permanent suspension,” Cornyn said Monday. “I don’t know exactly what the President has in mind. I think a temporary suspension getting through this sort of bumpy time because of uncertainty about energy prices, I can live with that.”
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa is calling for a state gas tax pause as well. The state tax currently sits at 20 cents per gallon, according to the Texas Department of Transportation.
The state pause is also being urged by Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, who has called on Governor Greg Abbott to act.
“Governors in Indiana, Georgia, and Utah have already stepped up to provide relief for their citizens, and I once again renew my call for Governor Abbott to follow the lead of President Trump and act decisively for Texas families,” Miller wrote on Monday.
The governor’s office, however, said a state gas tax pause is not an option under his executive authority.
In a statement, the governor’s press secretary, Andrew Mahaleris, wrote in response to Miller:
There’s a reason Sid Miller lost his election, it’s because he doesn’t shoot straight with Texans. Any suggestion that the Texas governor is authorized by law to suspend a gas tax is entirely uninformed or purposefully misleading. If the Texas governor could suspend taxes, he would have suspended the property tax years ago.
At the federal level, the Bipartisan Policy Center said a gas tax holiday would require an act of Congress. The group also estimated that a five-month pause could cost as much as $17 billion.
Some drivers, like Rodriguez, said any break would help.
“Pause the taxes!” she said.
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