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Texas Hail(ed) 2023 a Record-Breaking Year for Insured Losses

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Texas Hail(ed) 2023 a Record-Breaking Year for Insured Losses


How severe storms in Texas and population growth are driving hail damage

Severe convective storms — also known as severe thunderstorms — caused tens of billions of dollars of insured losses across the U.S. in 2023.

Tornadoes, straight-line winds (including derechos) and hail are the damage-causing agents of severe thunderstorms, but it was the latter that dominated the loss landscape in 2023.

Hail of at least one inch in diameter battered more than 10 million homes across the U.S. Two million of those homes were in Texas alone.

Historically, risk managers have considered severe thunderstorms a secondary peril given the high-frequency but low-severity nature of these events. However, hail is quickly becoming an expensive peril that should be modeled with the same scrutiny as the “big ones” like hurricanes and earthquakes.

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In 2023 there were 141 days with large hail (greater than two inches), which is more days than any year since 2003. Insured loss figures have also been increasing. This significant increase is the result of two interrelated factors: climate patterns and the increasing scale of homes.

Understand 2024 Severe Convective Storm Season Risk

2024 SCS Risk Report

Does Changing Weather Lead to Texas-Sized Hail?

There is a direct link between a warming atmosphere and weather pattern volatility. Annual or multiannual climate phenomena, such as the shift to El Niño during the spring of 2023 following multiple years of La Niña, likely influenced last year’s severe convective storm activity. This influence was compounded by record-breaking sea-surface temperatures and the subtropical jet stream, a belt of winds located within the tropics.

While the evidence to connect weather patterns and the number of intense storms is compelling, it is difficult to determine if long-term atmospheric changes are the primary driver of increased severe thunderstorm activity without a more extensive historical record.

Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that evolving climate risk is changing historical patterns, and as a result, has the potential to influence the impacts that severe convective storms can have on properties in future climate scenarios. 

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Affordability Means Texas Weather and Hailstorms

In conjunction with the volatile climate, more people are moving to hail-prone areas like Texas due to the allure of more affordable homes.

“Given how expansive Texas is, it is way more likely hail falls on the ground avoiding homes, office buildings or farms,” said CoreLogic’s Director of Catastrophe Response Jon Schneyer. “But in 2023, many of the largest hailstorms happened to hit major cities in Texas like the Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin areas. When that happens, losses can add up quickly.”

Texas has been attracting newcomers due to its low cost of living, strong economy, and job opportunities. Historically, substantial portions of Texas were sparsely populated, especially in the rural areas where hail is more frequent and severe. However, in recent years, the urban and suburban areas of Texas have been expanding rapidly, creating more demand for housing and infrastructure.

According to a CoreLogic economic analysis, Texas has been home to some of the fastest-growing cities over the past five years. In 2019, and again in 2020, more people moved to Austin than left the metro area. While this trend flipped from 2021 to 2023, there was a strong inter-metro migration pattern from Austin to San Antonio, which saw the fourth-largest influx of residents in 2023. Similarly, Houston grew rapidly and had the third-highest rate of in-migration in the U.S.

Everything Is Bigger in Texas — Including Costs

Despite the increasing number of migrants to this low-cost state, both construction and labor costs are going up. This means that even in Texas, houses are getting pricier. They are also bigger.

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Across the U.S., the size of single-family homes has increased in the decades following 1980. In 1985, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data showed that the median square footage for single-family homes was 1,610. By 2022, the median size of a new, single-family home was 2,383 square feet, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This means that more roof area, windows, and siding are exposed to hail impacts. And the materials for these repairs are increasing in price.

“Areas where people are building bigger, more expensive homes were hit hard,” Schneyer said. “On top of that, inflationary pressures on materials and labor are really driving up individual claims. What might’ve been a $2,000 to $4,000 roof repair 10 years ago could be twice that or more now. So that will really inflate insured losses.”

Inflation has also played a role in driving up the costs of reconstruction, although it has stabilized in recent months. However, asphalt shingles, one of the most common roof-type materials used throughout the U.S., experienced a 40% cost increase over the past five years. Similarly, the cost of ceramic tiles increased by 26% since 2018.

Compounding the increasing square footage that is exposed to Texas weather hailstorms is the challenge associated with finding skilled labor to make the necessary repairs. Since the Great Recession of 2006 – 2010, there has been a persistent reduction in employees entering the construction trades. The result is that the pace of labor attempts to match demand but is perpetually racing to catch up, allowing for premium prices to dominate the market.

Texas Hail Is a Year-Round Peril

Further straining the equation for insurers is the fact that hail is a year-round risk. In May, Texas faced a slew of storms in the lead up to June when CoreLogic estimated that in one week alone, straight-line winds and hail generated between $7 billion and $10 billion in insured losses. Then in September, a hailstorm hit the greater Austin metro with hail stones the size of softballs barreling down on the highly populated area. October then brought large hail to the Lubbock area.

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The unprecedented scale of insured losses has insurers and homeowners across the U.S. reconsidering the risk associated with these seasonal storms.

One opportunity to help reduce the vulnerability of its homes to hail damage and lower the costs of reconstruction associated with severe convective storms is the implementation of building codes.

By implementing and enforcing stricter building codes, insurers writing in Texas can gain assurance that mitigating measures — such as using impact-resistant roofing materials, reinforced windows, and durable siding — are routinely recognized.

Research, property data, stringent building codes, and a commitment to preparedness are all lessons that insurers and homeowners can glean from 2023 to get ready to mitigate property risk for the 2024 season.

Understand 2024 Severe Convective Storm Season Risk

2024 SCS Risk Report

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The CoreLogic statements and information in this blog post may not be reproduced or used in any form without express written permission. While all the CoreLogic statements and information are believed to be accurate, CoreLogic makes no representation or warranty as to the completeness or accuracy of the statements and information and assumes no responsibility whatsoever for the information and statements or any reliance thereon. CoreLogic® and Marshall & Swift® are the registered trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.



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Hundreds rescued from flooding in Texas as waters continue rising in Houston – WBBJ TV

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Hundreds rescued from flooding in Texas as waters continue rising in Houston – WBBJ TV


By Juan A. Lozano and Lekan Oyekanmi – Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) — High waters flooded neighborhoods around Houston on Saturday following heavy rains that have already resulted in crews rescuing more than 400 people from homes, rooftops and roads engulfed in murky water. Others prepared to evacuate their property.

A wide region was swamped from Houston to rural East Texas, where game wardens rode airboats through waist-high waters rescuing both people and pets who did not evacuate in time. One crew brought a family and three dogs aboard as rising waters surrounded their cars and home.

A flood watch was in effect through Sunday afternoon, as forecasters predicted additional rainfall Saturday night and the likelihood of major flooding.

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Texas Parks & Wildlife Department game wardens use a boat to rescue residents from floodwaters in Liberty County, Texas, on Saturday, May 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Lekan Oyekanmi)

“It’s going to keep rising this way,” said Miguel Flores Jr., of the northeast Houston neighborhood of Kingwood. “We don’t know how much more. We’re just preparing for the worst.”

Husband and wife Aron Brown, 45, and Jamie Brown, 41, were two of the many residents who drove or walked to watch the rising waters near a flooded intersection close to the San Jacinto River. Nearby restaurants and a gas station were beginning to flood.

Water could be seen flowing into parts of the couple’s subdivision, but Aron Brown said he wasn’t worried because their home is at a higher elevation than others in the neighborhood.

Brown, who had driven from his home in a golf cart, said the flooding wasn’t as bad as Hurricane Harvey in 2017. He pointed to nearby power lines and said that flooding during Harvey had reached the top of the lines.

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RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS ASKED TO EVACUATE

Friday’s fierce storms forced numerous high-water rescues, including some from the rooftops of flooded homes. Officials redoubled urgent instructions for residents in low-lying areas to evacuate, warning the worst was still to come.

“A lull in heavy rain is expected through (Saturday) evening,” according to the National Weather Service. “The next round of heavy rainfall is expected late (Saturday) into Sunday.”

Up to 3 inches (7.6 centimeters) of additional rain was expected, with up to 5 inches (12.7 centimeters) possible in isolated areas.

Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said more rain was expected Sunday, and if it’s a lot, it could be problematic. Hidalgo is the top elected official in the nation’s third-largest county.

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ONGOING RAIN HAS LEFT PARTS OF TEXAS DRENCHED, RESIDENTS TRAPPED

Most weekends, Miguel Flores Sr. is mowing his huge backyard on a 2.5-acre (1-hectare) lot behind his home in Kingwood. But on Saturday, he and his family were loading several vehicles with clothes, small appliances and other items.

Water from the San Jacinto River had already swallowed his backyard and was continuing to rise — what was about 1 foot (30 centimeters) high in the yard Friday measured about 4 feet (1.2 meters) the following day.

“It’s sad, but what can I do,” Flores said. He added that he has flood insurance.

For weeks, drenching rains in Texas and parts of Louisiana have filled reservoirs and saturated the ground. Floodwaters partially submerged cars and roads this week across parts of southeastern Texas, north of Houston, reaching the roofs of some homes.

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More than 21 inches (53 centimeters) fell over a five-day period through Friday in Liberty County near the city of Splendora, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) northeast of Houston, according to the National Weather Service.
Hidalgo said Saturday that 178 people and 122 pets have been rescued so far in the county. Scores of rescues took place in neighboring Montgomery County. In Polk County, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) northeast of Houston, officials said they have done over 100 water rescues in the past few days.

HOUSTON IS ONE OF THE MOST FLOOD-PRONE METRO AREAS IN THE US

Authorities in Houston have not reported any deaths or injuries. The city of more than 2 million people is one of the most flood-prone metro areas in the country and has long experience dealing with devastating weather.

Hurricane Harvey in 2017 dumped historic rainfall that flooded thousands of homes and resulted in more than 60,000 rescues by government rescue personnel across Harris County.

Of particular concern was an area along the San Jacinto River, which was expected to continue rising as more rain falls and officials release water from a full reservoir. Hidalgo issued a mandatory evacuation order on Thursday for people living along portions of the river.

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The weather service reported that the river was at nearly 74 feet (22.6 meters) late Saturday morning after reaching nearly 78 feet (23.7 meters). The rapidly changing forecast said the river was expected to fall to near flood stage of 58 feet (17.6 meters) by Thursday.

Most of Houston’s city limits were not heavily impacted by the weather. Officials said the area received about four months’ worth of rain in about a week’s time.

The greater Houston area covers about 10,000 square miles (25,900 square kilometers) — a footprint slightly bigger than New Jersey. It is crisscrossed by about 1,700 miles (2,700 kilometers) of channels, creeks and bayous that drain into the Gulf of Mexico, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) southeast of downtown.

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Polls open for municipal elections in North Texas

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Polls open for municipal elections in North Texas


Polls open for municipal elections in North Texas – CBS Texas

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Voters in Dallas are deciding on a more than $1 billion bond package for improvements to roads, parks and to help address flooding. Meanwhile, in Fort Worth, voters are deciding on $10 million in projected taxes to pay for a new city hall.

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“We lost everything”: East Texas residents confront their future after flooding

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“We lost everything”: East Texas residents confront their future after flooding



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