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Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls

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Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls


Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, said she is “seriously weighing” a Senate run in the Lone Star state as polls suggest she would be a favorite in the Democratic primary.

Newsweek reached out to Crockett’s campaign and office for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Democrats are facing tough math in next year’s Senate elections, forcing them to turn to conservative states like Texas to win a majority next year.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine—which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points—and North Carolina—which supported President Donald Trump by about three points—as their top opportunities to flip.

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But no other Republican senator seat in Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats are up for reelection next year, meaning Democrats must compete in states like Texas, where polls point to a potentially competitive race, to have a chance at winning control of the chamber. Crockett’s potential candidacy would shake up the Democratic primary, where several prominent lawmakers are already vying for the nomination.

What to Know

Crockett, first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022, has garnered national attention for her opposition to President Donald Trump and other Republicans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris named her as a Democrat who is “authentic” when discussing future leadership of the party.

She told Politico’s Dasha Burns this week that she is mulling a potential Senate bid.

“I am seriously weighing it to the extent that I am about to spend a lot of money to get data,” she said. “I’m a data-driven person. I will tell you that I personally believe that Texas needs to do something different if they want a different result. That’s just the bottom line.”

Crockett said she has had “multiple” conversations with a potential campaign director and is weighing who will be the Republican nominee. She does not believe any Democrat could defeat incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn.

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If she runs, she would face off against state legislator James Talarico and former U.S. Representative Colin Allred, the Democrats’ 2024 Senate nominee, in the primary. Representative Joaquin Castro and former Representative Beto O’Rourke have also been floated as potential candidates, though neither has jumped into the race yet.

Crockett led the most recent poll of the Texas Democratic primary race, which found her with 31 percent. Talarico and O’Rourke followed with 25 percent each, while 13 percent said they would vote for Allred. Six percent were unsure of who they would support.

In the general election polling, Crockett trailed Republican candidates.

Cornyn led Crockett by 6 percentage points (50 percent to 44 percent), while Attorney General Ken Paxton held a 2-point lead against her (49 percent to 47 percent). Representative Wesley Hunt led Crockett by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent).

The poll surveyed 1,650 respondents from September 19 to October 1, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.41 percentage points.

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O’Rourke held a lead over Crockett in a University of Texas at Tyler poll. Thirty-one percent said they’d vote for the former Congressman, while 29 percent said they would cast their ballots for Crockett. Allred had 25 percent support, while Castro had 13 percent.

It surveyed 1,032 registered voters from September 17 to September 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed similar results. In that poll, 27 percent of respondents said they’d back O’Rourke, while 26 percent said they’d vote for Crockett.

Allred, Talarico and Castro followed at 13 percent, 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

The poll surveyed 843 registered voters from August 27 to August 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

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Kalshi’s betting market gives Talarico the best chance of winning the party’s nomination at 50 percent. It gives Crockett a 25 percent and Allred a 22 percent chance of winning the primary.

What People Are Saying

Crockett told Politico’s Dasha Burns: “By the time we start spending money, I think it’s less about people learning, ‘Oh there’s a Jasmine Crockett. Who is she?’ And it’s more about, ‘Do we like her enough to go out and knock doors, to make phone calls, to send text messages, to tell our neighbors, to get people riled up?’”

Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek earlier in October: “Both in rhetoric and actions, Crockett and O’Rourke are seen as really fighting against the Trump administration and Republicans more generally. That’s something that endears them to Democratic primary voters, who don’t really want to see a pragmatist.”

What Happens Next

Whether Crockett will announce a run for the Texas Senate is yet to be seen. Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in the race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as Likely Republican.



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Fitness influencer drowns during swimming portion of Ironman Texas

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Fitness influencer drowns during swimming portion of Ironman Texas


A Brazilian fitness influencer has died after getting into difficulty during the swimming portion of an ironman event in Texas.

Mara Flavia Souza Araujo was reported as a “lost swimmer” around 7.30am at the Ironman Texas in Lake Woodlands near Houston on Saturday. According to KPRC 2 News, safety crews could not immediately locate Araujo. The 38-year-old’s body was discovered around 90 minutes later in 10ft of water by divers. She was pronounced dead on the scene.

Montgomery County Sheriff’s Department confirmed her identity in a statement to NBC on Monday.

“MCSO can confirm that Mara Flavia Souza Araujo, 38, of Brazil died while competing in the Ironman event in The Woodlands on Saturday,” the sheriff’s department told NBC News. “Preliminary investigations indicate she drowned during the swimming portion of the event.”

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Araujo was an experienced triathlete and had completed at least nine ironman events since 2018. She had more than 60,000 followers on Instagram and had posted about the importance of making the most out of life in the days before her death.

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“Enjoy this ride on the bullet train that is life,” she wrote in Portuguese. “And even with the speed of the machine blurring the landscape, look out the window – for at any moment, the train will drop you off at the eternal station.”

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Organizers of the race expressed their condolences on Saturday.

“We send our deepest sympathies to the family and friends of the athlete and will offer them our support as they go through this very difficult time,” race organizers said in a statement on Saturday. “Our gratitude goes out to the first responders for their assistance.”



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Glamorous triathlete shared haunting post before drowning during Texas Ironman competition

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Glamorous triathlete shared haunting post before drowning during Texas Ironman competition


A glamorous triathlete who drowned during an Ironman competition in Texas shared a photo from a swimming pool during a final training session just two days before the tragic race.

Brazilian influencer Mara Flávia, 38, shared the shot of her on the edge of a pool on Thursday — two days before she vanished during an open-water swim in The Woodlands Saturday morning.

“Just another day at work,” Flávia, 38, wrote in Portuguese alongside the pic of her wearing a matching pink swimming costume and cap.

Triathlete Mara Flávia was seen sitting by the side of the pool in a snap shared hours before her death. Instagram / @maraflavia

The influencer, who had more than 60,000 followers online, chose the Robin S track “Show Me Love” for her post with the hashtags “triathlon,” “swimming” and “triathlete.”

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Flávia vanished during an open-water swim in The Woodlands Saturday morning – the first of three grueling trials that competitors face during the 140-mile race.

Fire crews were told about a “lost swimmer” at around 7:30 a.m., one hour into the pro-female swim, KPRC reported.

Rescuers battled challenging visibility conditions before Flávia’s body was pulled from the water just after 9:30 a.m. 

Montgomery County Sheriffs confirmed that the victim “drowned while participating in the swim portion of the event,” according to a statement. The office said its Major Crimes unit will continue the investigation “per normal protocols.”

Shawn McDonald, a volunteer, recounted the commotion before the swimmer’s body was recovered.

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The athlete boasted 60,000 followers online. Instagram / @maraflavia
Mara Flávia seen beaming in a poolside snap. maraflavia/Instagram

The dad, who volunteered with his daughter Mila, 12, said a group of younger volunteers in a kayak raised a flag and blew their whistles, “yelling for help.”

“I heard them say she went under,” he wrote on Facebook. 

“I had Mila hand me the paddle and I started calling out to the athletes around us to stop so I could cross. I made my way over in about 30 seconds.

“When I got there and asked what happened, they all said the same thing: She went under. Right here. Right below us. The panic and fear on their faces won’t leave me for a long time.”

The volunteer recalled how one man had a “thousand-yard stare” on his face – before diving into the water in a desperate bid to find Flávia.

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She drowned during a swimming event at The Woodlands. Getty Images for IRONMAN

“I dove in immediately and began searching. After about a minute underwater, I felt her body with my foot. I surfaced, took what seemed like the deepest breath I have ever taken and went back down. She was gone.”

Boats with sonar combed the area – and McDonald was told to leave the water before the body was recovered.

“The victim was found in about 10 feet of water on the bottom of the lake,” Buck said. “The dive team accessed the victim, brought her up about 9:37 and then brought her over to the shore where she was pronounced DOS [deceased on scene],” Palmer Buck, the Woodlands fire chief, said.

It’s not known what caused the triathlete to go under the water.

Journalism grad Flávia previously worked in radio and television before pursuing a sporting career at age 28.

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She previously twice won the Brazilian Grand Prix, and finished third in the Brasilia triathlon event.  





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Texas A&M Forward Transfer Seemingly on Visit to See Lady Vols Basketball | Rocky Top Insider

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Texas A&M Forward Transfer Seemingly on Visit to See Lady Vols Basketball | Rocky Top Insider


fatmata janneh lady vols basketball
Photo via Texas A&M Athletics

Lady Vols basketball is looking to add more pieces to its 2026-27 roster with high-level experience. After completing her junior season at Texas A&M, Fatmata Janneh has emerged as a Tennessee target for her final year of eligibility. According to her Instagram story on Sunday night, she is in Knoxville.

With the Aggies a year ago, the 6-foot-2 forward averaged 11.4 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field. She also showed off an ability to hit from range, posting 1.1 makes per game on 33% shooting from three.

Perhaps Janneh’s biggest strength is her rebounding, though. She ripped down 9.7 boards per contest, good for the fifth-most in the SEC. This featured 2.6 rebounds on the offensive end per outing.

Janneh also averaged 1.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.4 blocks per game. She appeared in 27 games, starting in each.

More From RTI: How Watching The NCAA Tournament Drew Terrence Hill Jr. To Tennessee Basketball

Janneh started her career with a pair of seasons at St. Peter’s. As a sophomore, she averaged a double-double, posting 18.2 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. This made her a sought-after transfer in the portal before landing at Texas A&M as the nation’s leading defensive rebounder. As a freshman, she averaged 11.0 points and 8.0 rebounds.

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The forward is from London, England, attending Barking Abbey Sixth Form for her prep ball. She would be the second player from England to join the Tennessee roster if she committed. UT also added the commitment of incoming freshman and former Boston College signee Irene Oboavwoduo this offseason.

So far, Caldwell and the Lady Vols have landed five transfers in this portal cycle. This features Liberty guard Avery Mills, Northern Arizona guard Naomi White, Stanford forward Harper Peterson and Georgia forward Zhen Craft and guard Rylie Theuerkauf.

Tennessee will also roster a pair of incoming freshmen. Four-star recruit and top-50 prospect Gabby Minus is staying true to her signing despite the roster overhaul and assistant coaching changes, along with the addition of Oboavwoduo.





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