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Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls

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Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls


Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, said she is “seriously weighing” a Senate run in the Lone Star state as polls suggest she would be a favorite in the Democratic primary.

Newsweek reached out to Crockett’s campaign and office for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Democrats are facing tough math in next year’s Senate elections, forcing them to turn to conservative states like Texas to win a majority next year.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine—which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points—and North Carolina—which supported President Donald Trump by about three points—as their top opportunities to flip.

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But no other Republican senator seat in Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats are up for reelection next year, meaning Democrats must compete in states like Texas, where polls point to a potentially competitive race, to have a chance at winning control of the chamber. Crockett’s potential candidacy would shake up the Democratic primary, where several prominent lawmakers are already vying for the nomination.

What to Know

Crockett, first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022, has garnered national attention for her opposition to President Donald Trump and other Republicans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris named her as a Democrat who is “authentic” when discussing future leadership of the party.

She told Politico’s Dasha Burns this week that she is mulling a potential Senate bid.

“I am seriously weighing it to the extent that I am about to spend a lot of money to get data,” she said. “I’m a data-driven person. I will tell you that I personally believe that Texas needs to do something different if they want a different result. That’s just the bottom line.”

Crockett said she has had “multiple” conversations with a potential campaign director and is weighing who will be the Republican nominee. She does not believe any Democrat could defeat incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn.

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If she runs, she would face off against state legislator James Talarico and former U.S. Representative Colin Allred, the Democrats’ 2024 Senate nominee, in the primary. Representative Joaquin Castro and former Representative Beto O’Rourke have also been floated as potential candidates, though neither has jumped into the race yet.

Crockett led the most recent poll of the Texas Democratic primary race, which found her with 31 percent. Talarico and O’Rourke followed with 25 percent each, while 13 percent said they would vote for Allred. Six percent were unsure of who they would support.

In the general election polling, Crockett trailed Republican candidates.

Cornyn led Crockett by 6 percentage points (50 percent to 44 percent), while Attorney General Ken Paxton held a 2-point lead against her (49 percent to 47 percent). Representative Wesley Hunt led Crockett by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent).

The poll surveyed 1,650 respondents from September 19 to October 1, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.41 percentage points.

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O’Rourke held a lead over Crockett in a University of Texas at Tyler poll. Thirty-one percent said they’d vote for the former Congressman, while 29 percent said they would cast their ballots for Crockett. Allred had 25 percent support, while Castro had 13 percent.

It surveyed 1,032 registered voters from September 17 to September 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed similar results. In that poll, 27 percent of respondents said they’d back O’Rourke, while 26 percent said they’d vote for Crockett.

Allred, Talarico and Castro followed at 13 percent, 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

The poll surveyed 843 registered voters from August 27 to August 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

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Kalshi’s betting market gives Talarico the best chance of winning the party’s nomination at 50 percent. It gives Crockett a 25 percent and Allred a 22 percent chance of winning the primary.

What People Are Saying

Crockett told Politico’s Dasha Burns: “By the time we start spending money, I think it’s less about people learning, ‘Oh there’s a Jasmine Crockett. Who is she?’ And it’s more about, ‘Do we like her enough to go out and knock doors, to make phone calls, to send text messages, to tell our neighbors, to get people riled up?’”

Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek earlier in October: “Both in rhetoric and actions, Crockett and O’Rourke are seen as really fighting against the Trump administration and Republicans more generally. That’s something that endears them to Democratic primary voters, who don’t really want to see a pragmatist.”

What Happens Next

Whether Crockett will announce a run for the Texas Senate is yet to be seen. Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in the race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as Likely Republican.



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Co‑worker confesses to killing missing North Texas man and stealing his car, police say

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Co‑worker confesses to killing missing North Texas man and stealing his car, police say



A North Texas man reported missing earlier this week was found dead Friday, and police say a co‑worker has confessed to fatally shooting him and stealing his car.

The suspect, Gregory D. Lewis, 34, remains in custody and faces a forthcoming capital murder charge, according to the Fort Worth Police Department. 

Lewis is accused of killing 31‑year‑old Thomas King, who had been last seen in his Taco Casa work uniform. King was reported missing on Tuesday after failing to return home Monday from the fast‑food restaurant in the 1100 block of Bridgewood Drive.

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Car found at Arlington motel 

Police said King’s car was found at the Quality Inn on I‑20 in Arlington, and surveillance video showed Lewis arriving in King’s vehicle shortly after King left work. 

Detectives identified the man in the video and arrested him on unrelated charges.

  Gregory D. Lewis, 34

Tarrant County Jail

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Body discovered on Fort Worth’s East Side 

King’s body was located on Friday in an open field on Fort Worth’s East Side, authorities said. 

According to police, Lewis confessed to shooting the victim and stealing his car. 

Medical examiner review pending 

The Tarrant County Medical Examiner will determine the cause of death. 

CBS News Texas has reached out to Taco Casa for comment.

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Exclusive | Mexican mayor urged relatives in US to vote for Texas Dem for Congress who would ‘take care’ of their city

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Exclusive | Mexican mayor urged relatives in US to vote for Texas Dem for Congress who would ‘take care’ of their city


WASHINGTON — A Mexican mayor earlier this month urged her constituents to get their relatives in Texas to vote for House Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido because he would “take care” of their city if elected to Congress.

“We need to get out the vote for him,” said Patricia Frinee Cantú Garza, mayor of General Bravo in Nuevo León, less than two hours from the US border, in a recent Spanish-speaking Facebook reel,which The Post reviewed and translated.

“Talk to your families in the United States. Make sure they go vote,” Garza added, noting that she would be presenting the keys to the city to Pulido, a two-time Latin Grammy winner, on April 3.

A Mexican mayor earlier this month urged residents of her municipality to get their relatives in Texas to vote for House Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido because he would “take care” of their city if elected to Congress. Politigranja/ Facebook

“When he becomes a congressman,” she also said, “we want him to take care of Bravo.”

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The city ceremony celebrating Pulido in General Bravo never received enough funding and was cancelled, the Mexican outlet El Norte reported.

Pulido has headlined concerts in General Bravo as recently as November 2023. Local officials promoted the show and the current mayor and her husband, then-mayor Edgar Cantu Fernandez, appeared.

“Bobby doesn’t know the mayor and has never met her,” a Pulido campaign spokesperson said in a statement. “He declined the invitation, didn’t attend the event, and isn’t responsible for unsolicited comments made by other people.”

Bradley Smith, a former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, said the statements wouldn’t pose legal or ethical issues for Pulido — but that the remarks may have a political cost, given the focus on foreign involvement in US elections in recent years.

“Bobby doesn’t know the mayor and has never met her,” a Pulido campaign spokesperson said in a statement. Bobby Pulido for Texas

“If you were making financial contributions, that would be a different thing, but just to exhort people to vote,” Smith said, “I don’t think that’s going to be a problem for them.”

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Jessica Furst Johnson, a partner at the Republican-aligned campaign finance and election law firm Lex Politica, noted that event appeared to function as an in-kind contribution to Pulido’s campaign but it would be difficult to determine without “more details.”

Congressional Republicans have thus far failed to pass a bill this session aimed at beefing up identification requirements for voters when registering, though many have said laws as currently written are too lax and could lead to non-citizens casting ballots.

State investigations and audits have shown in recent years that thousands of non-citizens ended up being registered, but few have ever illegally voted. Those who have are federally prosecuted.

Pulido has headlined concerts in General Bravo in the city as recently as November 2023, which local officials promoted and where the now-mayor and her husband, then-mayor Edgar Cantu Fernandez appeared. Obtained by NY Post
Pulido is challenging incumbent GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the Texas district this November and has faced questions from the press about his ties to Mexico, where he has said he maintains a home for parts of the year. CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Pulido is challenging incumbent GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the Texas district this November and has faced questions from the press about his ties to Mexico, where he has said he maintains a home for parts of the year.

The Latino music star admitted to splitting time with his family between there and Texas just two years before launching his campaign, telling a YouTube show in a 2023 interview that he’s a “summer Mexican” but “winter Texan.”

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“We live on the border,” he has also said. “My wife and I have a house in Mexico. So, we travel there, and we spend time over there.”

“Bobby lives in his family home in Edinburg, Texas, where he was born, raised, and is raising his own family,” the Pulido campaign rep noted. Getty Images

There was no indication of a current mortgage on a property either there or in the US, according to financial disclosures that Pulido filed April 15 with the House. Those filings also revealed he holds a checking account at a Mexican bank.

“Bobby lives in his family home in Edinburg, Texas, where he was born, raised, and is raising his own family,” the Pulido campaign rep noted. “He is in complete compliance with all House disclosure rules — the property you are referencing is not his primary residence so is not required to be listed.”



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Pushback grows over Texas governor’s threat to withhold public safety money

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Pushback grows over Texas governor’s threat to withhold public safety money


Criticism is mounting over the threat to withhold public safety grants from Austin and other major Texas cities, with opponents arguing the move is politically motivated as both the governor and attorney general seek office this year.

“Defunding the public safety for political reasons was wrong when the Democrats did it; still wrong when the Republicans do it,” the former executive director of the Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas, Charley Wilkison, wrote on X.

Criticism is mounting over the threat to withhold public safety grants from Austin and other major Texas cities, with opponents arguing the move is politically motivated as both the governor and attorney general seek office this year. (Photo: CBS Austin)

The statement came hours after Governor Greg Abbott threatened to cut $2.5 million in public safety funding to Austin. The governor expressed opposition to Austin’s decision to update its policy governing how police handle administrative warrants used by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in immigration detentions.

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“The city has updated its general orders to align with state and federal law and also to protect the Fourth Amendment of Austin residents who should be free from unlawful search and seizure,” said Austin City Councilmember Mike Siegel.

ALSO| Gov. Abbott threatens to withhold $2.5 million from Austin regarding APD ICE policies

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Houston and Dallas are also facing similar threats from the governor.

“The statement from the governor’s office was really disappointing and frankly it’s wrong on the law and it’s wrong on what’s good for public safety,” Siegel said.

In a statement provided in response to a request for an interview, the Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas said, “Law enforcement officers continue to be dragged into political warfare while real public safety issues are ignored.”

The president of the Austin Police Association did not respond to a request for comment regarding the potential impact on officers.

A request for comment to the governor’s office received a previously issued statement from Abbott’s press secretary, which read: “A city’s failure to comply with its contract agreement with the state to assist in the enforcement of immigration laws makes the state less safe. It can have deadly consequences. Cities in Texas are expected to make the streets safer, not more deadly.”

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Siegel defended the city council’s position, stating, “I can speak for myself as one of 11 voting members of our city council. We’re not going to sell our values for a couple million dollars in public safety grants.”



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