Tropical Storm Debby already has parts of Florida under tropical storm warnings. The Florida Big Bend is currently under a Hurricane Warning. Debby is forecast to briefly strengthen into a category 1 hurricane as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures are near 90 degrees.

As it continues its path over land it is expected to dial back to tropical storm strength as it reaches the Carolinas mid to late next week. Moderate rainfall is possible for northeast North Carolina and southern Virginia by the end of the week.

Higher amounts of rain are possible for southernmost portions of the Outer Banks but generally models show 2-4 inches for northeast North Carolina and 1-2 inches for southern Virginia through Thursday.

Stay with News 3’s First Warning Weather Team for the latest updates as the storm develops.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical depression over Cuba. It’s expected to become a tropical storm later Saturday, bringing impacts to the Carolinas around the middle of next week.

Heavy rainfall and flooding are the primary impacts expected, according to the National Weather Service in Wilmington.

“Gusty winds are also possible, but it is too early to predict specific impacts in great detail at this time,” the weather service said.

At the same time, there is the potential for heavy rainfall and some flooding associated with front expected to stall inland this weekend.

As of 11 a.m. Saturday, the center of the tropical depression, which would be name Debby if it becomes a tropical storm, was over Cuba and moving west-northwest near 15 mph. The hurricane center said a turn toward the northwest is forecast for Saturday, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastwardmotion Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. Slow strengthening is expected throughout the day Saturday. Faster strengthening is possible Sunday, with the storm nearing hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf Coast, the hurricane center said.

STORM TRACKER: Monitor the latest tropical developments here.

Here’s a look at what we can expect in the Wilmington area, according to the latest briefing from the National Weather Service in Wilmington.

Wind

The probability of tropical storm force winds has increased, especially for the South Carolina coast. The most likely time of arrival of for northeast South Carolina is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and for Southeastern North Carolina is during Wednesday morning.

Rain

The potential for significant rainfall exists with 8 to 12 inches possible from near Cape Fear to portions of thenortheast South Carolina coast. Flash flooding and urban flooding are possible. Some rivers, including the North Cape Fear River and the Waccamaw River, could exceed flood stage next week.

INTERACTIVE MAP: Enter your address to see hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed nearby

Marine impacts

Rough surf, including dangerous rip currents, and hazardous marine conditions are expected this weekend and will persist into the upcoming week.

Are you prepared for a hurricane?

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Even if this system won’t pose a threat to the NC coast, it’s never too early to be prepared.

GET READY: Are you prepared for a hurricane? Here’s what to know if you live in the Wilmington area.

As of the 5 AM update Friday, Tropical Depression Four has formed. Areas along the East Coast including North Carolina need to continue monitoring this system. Winds are at 30 MPH and gusts are up to 40 MPH. The pressure dropped to 1009 mb and is moving to the west at 16 mph. TD 4 is expected to become Tropical Storm Debby over the weekend. Tuesday night and Wednesday are First Alert Weather Days due to the threat to ENC from this system but we may need to adjust the timing as we get closer.

It’ll move slowly before escaping to the north next week. As it moves up the East Coast, there’s a lot more uncertainty about the track and threats. We expect the track of this system to change through the weekend and even into next week. If ENC sees impacts from this system, they’d likely come mid-week. The longer this system stays over land, the weaker it’ll be. It’ll have the chance to strengthen if it moves back over open water, especially if it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

The speed of this system is just as important as the strength. The quicker it moves through, the less rain piles up. If it slows down or stalls, higher rainfall amounts would be expected. Our river levels have dropped a bit since July’s wet weather, but levels are still higher than what you’d find in a typical August.

This is a reminder that we are heading into the heart of the hurricane season and to make sure your emergency supplies are ready.

Stay with WITN and WITN.com as we continue to track this system over the coming days and monitor the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

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