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North Carolina’s battle for unaffiliated voting bloc challenging — here’s the key

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North Carolina’s battle for unaffiliated voting bloc challenging — here’s the key


(The Center Square) – North Carolina’s population has more than doubled the last 20 years, its voter registration rolls swelling by more than 2.4 million along with it, yet Republicans and Democrats have just marginal gains.

Those signing up unaffiliated, on the other hand, are now the largest voting bloc.

Quite a journey from trailing Democrats 47.6%-17.7% in share midway of the Bush administration.

Two experts of state politics and campaigns agree there’s more to the story than sheer numbers.

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And strategies in the next 140 days should be chess rather than checkers.

“In some research I’ve conducted with Michael Bitzer, Whitney Ross Manzo and Susan Roberts, we found that unaffiliated voters are best understood as ‘unmoored voters,’” Chris Cooper, a political science and public affairs professor at Western Carolina University, told The Center Square on Wednesday.

“They tend to stay near their partisan docks, but, with nothing tying them there, a large change in political weather may send them in unpredictable directions.”

Reliability in turnout is also in play with the group.

“The rise of unaffiliated voters makes the political landscape a little less predictable for campaigns,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity, told The Center Square on Wednesday.

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Two experts of state politics and campaigns agree there’s more to the story than sheer numbers. Anadolu via Getty Images

“It forces them to rely on other data, such as which primaries unaffiliated voters vote in or what media they consume, to predict which party they are more likely to support. It forces campaigns to spend more effort and money on their get-out-the-vote operations.”

Jackson, like Cooper, said unaffiliated voters “behave like weak partisans.”

He estimates 10% as truly independent, meaning evenly dividing support of parties.

In 20 years, since Jan. 1, 2004, the state’s population has increased 26.7%. 

Through Saturday, the voter registrations had changed significantly as well – the more than 5 million then split 47.6% Democrats, 34.4% Republicans and 17.7% unaffiliated, to now more than 7.4 million split 37.2% unaffiliated, 31.9% Democrats and 30% Republicans.

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A person enters to vote on Super Tuesday at First Ward Creative Academy, Mecklenburg County Precinct 13 on March 5, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina
“The rise of unaffiliated voters makes the political landscape a little less predictable for campaigns,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity, told The Center Square on Wednesday. Getty Images

In volume number, while the state’s population more than doubled in 20 years to better than 10.8 million, Democrats have just 11,854 more registrations – and 220,040 less than the day Joe Biden was elected president.

Republicans are up more than 525,000 over the two decades, and are down 25,573 since Nov. 7, 2020.

The voters choosing unaffiliated, meanwhile, have grown from fewer than 900,000 to more than 2.8 million.

During the Biden administration, the number has risen 353,566.

The bloc grew 387,096 in the four years between elections won and lost by former President Donald Trump.

As the Trump v. Biden rematch nears, that just shy of three-quarters of a million, 6.8% of the total population, and 1 in 10 of all registered voters.

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Jackson notes 2020 turnout was 69.8% of unaffiliated, 81.6% of Republicans and 75.1% of Democrats.

Trump, as every Republican presidential candidate has for 60 years except Gerald Ford in 1976 and John McCain in 2008, won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020.

Consensus of polling just over four months away, including after his felony conviction, puts him at about a 5% lead.

Republicans also have three-fifths majorities in each chamber of the General Assembly.

But the governor’s office has had just three Republicans since 1900.

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Polling indicates Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein are in a dead heat as the summer temps begin to bake.

Jackson said part of the reason for lower turnout by unaffiliated voters “is that they tend to be younger than partisans, and younger people vote less often. So, campaigns that plan to win by courting unaffiliated voters have their work cut out for them.”

And that means, Cooper adds, “The battle over unaffiliated voters is therefore, the key to victory in North Carolina, not because they are universally persuadable, but because small nudges in mobilization may be the key to victory.”



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North Carolina

Interstate 40 is impassable between Tennessee and North Carolina due to massive floods and a mudslide

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Interstate 40 is impassable between Tennessee and North Carolina due to massive floods and a mudslide


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Interstate 40 is impassable between Tennessee and Asheville, North Carolina, and beyond, because of catastrophic floods from the remnants of Hurricane Helene.

A mudslide and flooding have shut down the route.

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Here are the I-40 closures listed on DriveNC.gov, though North Carolina Department of Transportation officials have told drivers all Western Carolina roads are essentially shut down.

  • South of Asheville, all lanes of I-26 are closed between Exit 49 to US 64 and Exit 53 to Upward Road.
  • All lanes of I-40 between Exit 66 in Ridgecrest and Exit 72 in Old Fort are closed due to a mudslide.
  • All lanes of I-40 are closed near Black Mountain, one mile west of Exit 64 to NC 9.
  • All lanes of I-40 are closed at the Tennessee-North Carolina state line.
  • All lanes of I-40 is closed at Exit 20 to US-276.
  • I-40 East is closed at Exit 4 to NC 191.
  • I-40 West is closed at Exit 7 to Cold Springs Creek Road.
  • On the Tennessee side, all lanes of I-40 in Cocke County are closed, according to a post TDOT made on Facebook.

Hayden Dunbar is the storyteller reporter. Email hayden.dunbar@knoxnews.com.

Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.



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NBA Draft: North Carolina’s Prospect Loaded Roster

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NBA Draft: North Carolina’s Prospect Loaded Roster


Heading into the 2025 season, North Carolina boasts one of the most prospect-filled rosters in college basketball. High-upside freshmen, returning players, and transfers help make the Tar Heels not only an interesting team to monitor in terms of the draft but also a real title contender.

Let’s highlight five standout players who have the best chance of being selected in the 2025 NBA draft.

Ian Jackson will attend North Carolina for his freshman year

Apr 2, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; McDonald’s All American East forward Ian Jackson (11) dribbles the ball during the first half against the McDonald’s All American West at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Ian Jackson may have the most star potential out of this group, thanks to his polarizing two-way upside. He has great athleticism, which allows him to disrupt opponents on the defensive end as well as finish plays above the rim in transition. While playing in the halfcourt, Jackson does a great job of penetrating defenses and either sliding to the rim or knocking down mid-range pull-ups. His ability to make highlights will surely make him a fan favorite and could propel him up draft boards, but he will need to improve his connectivity and three-point shooting to reach his full potential as a prospect. Jackson looks like a surefire first-round selection and could battle his way into the top 10 if his fit promotes him to one of the Tar Heel’s first scoring options.

Drake Powell looks to be a one and done at North Carolina

Apr 2, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; McDonald’s All American East guard Drake Powell (9) drives to the basket around McDonald’s All American West guard Trent Perry (0) during the first half at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Drake Powell is a physically dominant wing whose high-level motor makes him impactful all over the court. He is not much of a self-creator at the moment, which could slow his development throughout his freshman year, but he excels in the open court. His ability to attack the rim off-ball is impressive, as he jumps at opportunities to cut for open runways. Defensively, Powell uses his elite athleticism and strong frame to create havoc within opponents’ offenses. Major shooting improvements may be a little ways off, but if he can show some steps in the right direction, his potential will be extremely intriguing to NBA teams. Powell could easily be viewed as a lottery-level talent, but time will tell just how promising his off-ball skill set will be.

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Elliot Cadeau looks to take a leap in year two

Mar 28, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Elliot Cadeau (2) controls the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the first half in the semifinals of the West Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Elliot Cadeau was one of the highest-ranked guards coming into his freshman season in 2024 but struggled at times, which led him to return for his sophomore year. He is a little undersized but has an impressive handle, great court vision, and high-end change of speed. Cadeau led the Tar Heels in assists last season and should be able to continue his playmaking productivity heading into year two. A key factor in his draftability will rely on how well he improves his three-point shooting. Last season, Cadeau made just below 19% of his threes, which is far from NBA-ready. Depending on where his improvements take him during the upcoming season, Cadeau’s draft range is uncertain but would likely fall somewhere in the second round.

Cade Tyson attempts a three before transferring to North Carolina

Belmont guard Cade Tyson (10) shoots over Lipscomb guard Derrin Boyd (4) during the second half at the Curb Event Center in Nashville, Tenn., Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Cade Tyson is a very intriguing transfer for the Tar Heels and has a chance to be seen as one of the best shooters in all of college basketball. He has good size and moves extremely well off-ball while getting to his spots for open threes. Tyson also has decent athleticism, which can be seen as he runs the court in transition and finishes plays at the rim when he gets a running start. His career shooting splits of 49%/45%/86% paint a clear picture of just how deadly he is on jumpers. He has good touch inside the perimeter and can also serve as a great connective playmaker, which should take another leap while playing with a more talented Tar Heel roster. If Tyson enters the 2025 draft, he would most likely be viewed as a second-round steal and could be a plug-and-play shooter.

RJ Davis looks to carry his productivity into his final year of eligibility

Mar 28, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) controls the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the first half in the semifinals of the West Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

RJ Davis was one of the best players in college basketball last season, and while he does not have great positional size, his ability to create space seems translatable to the NBA level. He can score from all three levels efficiently and excels both on and off the ball. Davis was productive while playing with upperclassmen last season and should showcase even more leadership on their retooled roster. Davis’ on-ball scoring could fit into a spark-plug off-the-bench role for several NBA teams, similar to how Cam Thomas has been used by the Nets at times, but he will need to continue improving on the defensive end. As an older, undersized prospect, his draft range is wide, but he will definitely get an opportunity to prove himself regardless of where he is drafted.

Want to join the discussion? Like Draft Digest on Facebook and follow us on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest NBA Draft news. You can also meet the team behind the coverage.





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Across Asheville, anxious residents brace for impending arrival of Hurricane Helene

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Across Asheville, anxious residents brace for impending arrival of Hurricane Helene


RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — It’s the calm before the storm but people in Biltmore Village are bracing for the worst.

“Well, you know, I’m kind of in a place of like shock and awe and also how do you protect,” said David Ross, a Biltmore Village resident. “So, like I’m in that place of like trying to do the best you can.”

When Ross saw the forecast — with the river expected to crest — he quickly got to work boarding up an Indian restaurant housed in his building and protecting what they could from inside by putting it in trucks.

Across western North Carolina, people anxiously prepared for the expected arrival of Helene, which Thursday night was menacing the Florida coast as a major Category 4 hurricane.

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“I don’t think people are aware of the magnitude of what’s going to they say is going to happen,” one person said.

Across Asheville, stores and shops were getting ready for the storm.

Susan May-West said she remembers how bad things got 20 years ago from a similar storm and wasn’t taking any chances.

Asheville boards up, sets out sandbags ahead of Hurricane Helene as the NC mountains are expected to get serious flooding.

“We’ve got sandbags, tarps, silicone, you name it. We’re doing everything we can because I was here in 2004, and I know what it looks like and it’s going to be worse than that,” said May-West, who owns Blue Goldsmiths in Asheville. “So, we’re pretty prepared.”

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Stores weren’t the only thing closing. Even the Blue Ridge Parkway was shut down.

Meanwhile, it’s been a tough couple of days for Mac Parra. He had a tough time getting to Asheville from California in time for his sister’s wedding this weekend.

“We circled Atlanta for an hour, hour and a half, and then got diverted to Birmingham, sat at the gate for a good two hours,” Parra said.

After another two-hour delay and a shortage of Ubers in Asheville, he made it. Now he’s trying to make the most of the weekend.

“That’s what I’m trying to do. Yeah, Hopefully,” Parra said. “Hopefully it won’t be raining on Saturday.

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Helene is forecasted to cause significant problems including flash flooding and landslides in portions of western North Carolina.

Buncombe County’s emergency management leaders have been telling people who live down close to the river in the Biltmore Village area to self-evacuate.

Once things ramp up Friday, they said it could get to the point where water rescues may not be possible.

The North Carolina State Emergency Operations Center deployed 16 swift water rescue teams and added three additional swift water rescue teams from New York, Indiana and Illinois.

ABC11 was in Cary early Thursday as local emergency teams geared up to head to western North Carolina.

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The Cary Swift Water team out of Station No. 7 loaded up several cars and trailers with boats attached.

After Governor Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency, the Cary Swift Water team out of station 7 loaded up serval cars and trailers with boats attached.

WATCH | Duke Energy on preparation for power outages from Helene

Duke Energy’s Jeff Brooks talks about possible power outages and their response to Hurricane Helene in an ABC11 interview.

Copyright © 2024 WTVD-TV. All Rights Reserved.

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