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North Carolina’s battle for unaffiliated voting bloc challenging — here’s the key

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North Carolina’s battle for unaffiliated voting bloc challenging — here’s the key


(The Center Square) – North Carolina’s population has more than doubled the last 20 years, its voter registration rolls swelling by more than 2.4 million along with it, yet Republicans and Democrats have just marginal gains.

Those signing up unaffiliated, on the other hand, are now the largest voting bloc.

Quite a journey from trailing Democrats 47.6%-17.7% in share midway of the Bush administration.

Two experts of state politics and campaigns agree there’s more to the story than sheer numbers.

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And strategies in the next 140 days should be chess rather than checkers.

“In some research I’ve conducted with Michael Bitzer, Whitney Ross Manzo and Susan Roberts, we found that unaffiliated voters are best understood as ‘unmoored voters,’” Chris Cooper, a political science and public affairs professor at Western Carolina University, told The Center Square on Wednesday.

“They tend to stay near their partisan docks, but, with nothing tying them there, a large change in political weather may send them in unpredictable directions.”

Reliability in turnout is also in play with the group.

“The rise of unaffiliated voters makes the political landscape a little less predictable for campaigns,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity, told The Center Square on Wednesday.

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Two experts of state politics and campaigns agree there’s more to the story than sheer numbers. Anadolu via Getty Images

“It forces them to rely on other data, such as which primaries unaffiliated voters vote in or what media they consume, to predict which party they are more likely to support. It forces campaigns to spend more effort and money on their get-out-the-vote operations.”

Jackson, like Cooper, said unaffiliated voters “behave like weak partisans.”

He estimates 10% as truly independent, meaning evenly dividing support of parties.

In 20 years, since Jan. 1, 2004, the state’s population has increased 26.7%. 

Through Saturday, the voter registrations had changed significantly as well – the more than 5 million then split 47.6% Democrats, 34.4% Republicans and 17.7% unaffiliated, to now more than 7.4 million split 37.2% unaffiliated, 31.9% Democrats and 30% Republicans.

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A person enters to vote on Super Tuesday at First Ward Creative Academy, Mecklenburg County Precinct 13 on March 5, 2024 in Charlotte, North Carolina
“The rise of unaffiliated voters makes the political landscape a little less predictable for campaigns,” Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity, told The Center Square on Wednesday. Getty Images

In volume number, while the state’s population more than doubled in 20 years to better than 10.8 million, Democrats have just 11,854 more registrations – and 220,040 less than the day Joe Biden was elected president.

Republicans are up more than 525,000 over the two decades, and are down 25,573 since Nov. 7, 2020.

The voters choosing unaffiliated, meanwhile, have grown from fewer than 900,000 to more than 2.8 million.

During the Biden administration, the number has risen 353,566.

The bloc grew 387,096 in the four years between elections won and lost by former President Donald Trump.

As the Trump v. Biden rematch nears, that just shy of three-quarters of a million, 6.8% of the total population, and 1 in 10 of all registered voters.

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Jackson notes 2020 turnout was 69.8% of unaffiliated, 81.6% of Republicans and 75.1% of Democrats.

Trump, as every Republican presidential candidate has for 60 years except Gerald Ford in 1976 and John McCain in 2008, won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020.

Consensus of polling just over four months away, including after his felony conviction, puts him at about a 5% lead.

Republicans also have three-fifths majorities in each chamber of the General Assembly.

But the governor’s office has had just three Republicans since 1900.

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Polling indicates Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein are in a dead heat as the summer temps begin to bake.

Jackson said part of the reason for lower turnout by unaffiliated voters “is that they tend to be younger than partisans, and younger people vote less often. So, campaigns that plan to win by courting unaffiliated voters have their work cut out for them.”

And that means, Cooper adds, “The battle over unaffiliated voters is therefore, the key to victory in North Carolina, not because they are universally persuadable, but because small nudges in mobilization may be the key to victory.”



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Proposed NC property tax cap, affordable housing exemption set for debate

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Proposed NC property tax cap, affordable housing exemption set for debate


A proposal to limit property tax increases is set to go before state lawmakers Tuesday — an effort that could culminate with North Carolinians voting on the issue as early as this year.

The state House of Representatives’ Finance Committee is scheduled to discuss a proposed state constitutional amendment restricting how much city and county governments could raise property taxes each year. 

Amendments to the state Constitution must be approved by North Carolina voters. If the idea is approved by a supermajority of legislators, North Carolinians would be asked to decide the issue through a ballot vote, likely in November.  

The legislation, House Bill 1089, doesn’t outline a limit for property tax increases. It calls on state lawmakers to come up with specific restrictions at a later date — if the referendum is approved by voters.

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The bill is part of a broader push by legislators in the Republican-controlled General Assembly to address affordability issues ahead of the midterm elections. 

Republicans in the state Senate last week approved a bill that would temporarily block county governments from applying appraisals conducted during this calendar year to property tax bills. Reappraisals often lead to higher property tax bills. Republican Senate leader Phil Berger has referred to that proposal as a “moratorium” that could bring temporary relief to taxpayers in a number of counties scheduled to reappraise properties this year — including Guilford and Harnett. Berger has framed the idea as simply buying time for the legislature to come up with more sweeping reforms.

The proposed constitutional amendment moving forward in the House could be that more sweeping idea, although it’s unclear if the Senate will go along if the idea passes the House.

Tax reduction has been a stated goal of Republican lawmakers for decades, but the proposed reappraisal moratorium and constitutional amendment are not guaranteed to pass. Neither Berger nor House Speaker Destin Hall has committed to supporting the other chamber’s idea for addressing rising property taxes.

Democrats have expressed skepticism over both plans. Senate Minority Leader Sydney Batch, D-Wake, chided Senate Republicans last week for failing to take up an amendment to Berger’s bill that would have lowered the state’s income threshold to qualify for property tax exceptions.

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Rep. Lindsey Prather, D-Buncombe, said Monday — during a press conference calling for higher taxes on millionaires — that the property tax changes being proposed by GOP lawmakers seemed aimed more at gathering political credit than solving a problem.

“We can be the quote-unquote ‘good guys’ down here in Raleigh and say we’re going to lower your property taxes,” Prather said. “But all that means is that the local governments are going to have to be the ‘bad guys’ to raise revenue in other ways.”

Closing a loophole

The House Finance committee on Tuesday is expected to consider a proposal that could help municipal governments recoup more property tax revenue. The committee is expected to discuss House Bill 1042, which would tighten rules for nonprofit organizations that receive property tax exemptions.

The state currently allows certain organizations to avoid paying property taxes if they use their property entirely for charitable purposes and are not run for profit — a law that kept nearly $750 million worth of property out of Wake County’s tax base in 2025. The proposed change seeks to winnow down the list of who qualifies, especially nonprofits that provide affordable housing for low- or moderate-income people. 

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North Carolina (NCHSAA) High School Softball 2026 State Playoff Brackets, Matchups, Schedule – May 11

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North Carolina (NCHSAA) High School Softball 2026 State Playoff Brackets, Matchups, Schedule – May 11


The 2026 North Carolina high school softball state playoff brackets are out, and High School On SI has all eight brackets with matchups and schedules for every team.

The first round begins on May 5, and the playoffs will culminate with the NCHSAA state championships being played May 27-30 at Duke University in Durham.

2026 North Carolina High School Baseball State Tournament Schedule

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May 5: First Round
May 8: Second Round
May 12: Third Round
May 15: Fourth Round
May 19-23: Regionals
May 27-30: State Championships

North Carolina (NCHSAA) High School Softball 2026 State Playoff Brackets, Matchups, Schedule – May 11

CLASS 1A BRACKET (select to view full bracket details)

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Third Round – May 12

No. 1 Bear Grass Charter vs. No. 5 Vance Charter

No. 3 East Columbus vs. No. 2 Northside – Pinetown

No. 1 Robbinsville vs. No. 5 Falls Lake Academy

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No. 6 Bethany Community vs. No. 2 Oxford Preperatory


Third Round – May 12

No. 1 North Duplin vs. No. 8 Camden County

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No. 5 Rosewood vs. No. 4 East Carteret

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No. 3 Perquimans vs. No. 11 Pamlico County

No. 10 Franklin Academy vs. No. 2 Manteo

No. 1 South Stanly vs. No. 9 East Wilkes

No. 5 South Stokes vs. No. 4 Starmount

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No. 3 Swain County vs. No. 6 Murphy

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No. 7 Highland Tech vs. No. 2 Roxboro Community


Third Round – May 12

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No. 1 Midway vs. No. 9 Providence

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No. 12 Wallace-Rose Hill vs. No. 4 Heide Trask

No. 3 Farmville Central vs. No. 11 Ayden – Grifton

No. 10 Northwood vs. No. 2 McMichael

No. 1 West Lincoln vs. No. 8 Union Academy

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No. 5 Draughn vs No. 4 Pine Lake Preperatory

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No. 3 West Davidson vs. No. 11 East Surry

No. 7 Walkertown vs. No. 2 West Wilkes

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Third Round – May 12

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No. 1 Randleman vs. No. 9 Nash Central

No. 5 Bunn vs. No. 4 East Duplin

No. 3 Southwest Onslow vs. No. 6 Roanoke Rapids

No. 7 Ledford Senior vs. No. 2 Central Davidson

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No. 1 West Stokes vs. No. 8 Forbush

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No. 5 Pisgah vs. No. 4 West Stanly

No. 19 North Surry vs. No. 11 Foard

No. 10 Mount Pleasant vs. No, 2 Bunker Hill


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Third Round – May 12

No. 1 Southeast Alamance vs. No. 8 C.B. Aycock

No. 5 Seaforth vs. No. 4 Rockingham County

No. 3 Eastern Alamance vs. No. 6 West Carteret

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No. 7 South Brunswick vs. No. 2 Southern Nash

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No. 1 Enka vs. No. 9 Oak Grove

No. 5 Crest vs. No. 13 West Rowan

No. 3 North Davidson vs. No. 6 Franklin

No. 10 East Rowan vs. No. 2 North Lincoln

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Third Round – May 12

No. 1 Union Pines vs. No. 9 South Johnston

No. 5 South View vs. No. 4 Gray’s Creek

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No. 3 J.H. Rose vs. No. 6 Harnett Central

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No. 7 Triton vs. No. 2 West Brunswick

No. 1 Kings Mountain vs. No. 8 Charlotte Catholic

No. 5 Alexander vs. No. 13 T.C. Roberson

No. 3 Piedmont vs. No. 6 Central Cabarrus

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No. 10 A.C. Reynolds vs. No. 2 South Caldwell


Third Round – May 12

No. 1 D.H. Conley vs. No. 8 Wake Forest

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No. 5 Purnell Sweet vs. No. 4 Cleveland

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No. 3 Heritage vs. No. 6 Topsail

No. 7 South Central vs. No. 2 New Bern

No. 1 Weddington vs. No. 8 Mooresville

No. 5 A.L. Brown vs. No. 4 Hickory Ridge

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No. 3 East Forsyth vs. No. 11 Porter Ridge

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No. 7 Ronald Reagan vs. No. 2 South Iredell


Third Round – May 12

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No. 1 Willow Spring vs. No. 4 Hoggard

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No. 3 E.A. Laney vs. No. 2 Cornith Holders

No. 1 Providence vs. No. 4 Hough

No. 3 West Forsyth vs. No. 2 Apex Friendship


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Perspective | What North Carolina gets right about workforce: Progress beyond politics

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Perspective | What North Carolina gets right about workforce: Progress beyond politics


Across the country, workforce development is often framed as a policy challenge. In North Carolina, we’ve come to understand it as something more fundamental: a shared responsibility between educators and employers that works best when it rises above politics. It is a nonpartisan priority with bipartisan support — and a clear focus on outcomes.

North Carolina’s approach to workforce and talent development offers a different model — one grounded in collaboration, consistency, data, and a relentless focus on student and employer needs.

Over the past several years, our state has aligned around an ambitious goal: ensuring that 2 million North Carolinians ages 25-44 hold a high-quality credential or postsecondary degree by 2030. myFutureNC is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, led by a bipartisan Board of Directors, that was created to champion this work.

This goal is not owned by a single administration or political party. It is the state’s attainment goal — codified in law with bipartisan support and signed by the governor — to ensure North Carolina remains economically competitive now and into the future. The work is guided by leaders across business, education, policymakers, and philanthropy.

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This kind of alignment doesn’t happen by accident. It requires trust, discipline, and a willingness to prioritize long-term impact over short-term wins — placing the needs of students and employers above the silos that often define education and workforce systems.

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North Carolina’s leaders don’t agree on everything, and unanimity is not what makes this work. There is broad agreement on a set of essential truths: Talent is the top driver of economic development. Education fuels economic prosperity, public safety, and healthier communities. Having a robust educational system and an educated population is one of our state’s greatest assets. Economic mobility matters. And preparing people for meaningful work benefits everyone.

This alignment is delivering results. North Carolina has been named the No. 1 state for business three out of the past four years and ranks No. 1 for workforce — reinforcing what’s possible when leaders stay focused on shared priorities.

This strong foundation has enabled progress in areas that often stall in partisan debate. Through strategic policy and philanthropic investments, the state has expanded pathways into high-demand careers, strengthened connections between education and industry, and increased access to work-based learning opportunities, including apprenticeships and pre-apprenticeships.

That same foundation is shaping how policy is developed in real time. The proposed Workforce Act of 2026 reflects North Carolina’s cross-sector approach — bringing together business and education leaders, policymakers, and philanthropists to strengthen pathways into high-demand careers and expand access to work-based learning. Rather than introducing a new direction, this Act builds on what is already working, demonstrating how alignment can translate into coordinated action.

The bipartisan-led Governor’s Council on Workforce and Apprenticeships puts this approach into practice. Building on the state’s existing foundation, the council brings together leaders from industry, education, and government to strengthen coordination across the workforce system. Its value lies not in setting a new direction, but in reinforcing and accelerating a shared one.

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This is what it looks like to build systems designed to last. Workforce development is not a one-year initiative or a single funding cycle — it is a long-term investment in people, communities, employers, and the educational infrastructure that supports them. North Carolina’s progress is rooted in structures that bring partners together consistently, align efforts across sectors, and create continuity beyond political cycles.

By embedding collaboration into how the work gets done — not just what gets prioritized — the state has created a model that can evolve over time while staying focused on its goals.

Work remains to be done. Gaps in attainment persist, and ensuring opportunity reaches every corner of the state will require continued focus and innovation. But North Carolina’s significant progress and continued success being No. 1 nationally in many related categories demonstrates what is possible when leaders choose partnership over partisanship.

At a time when it’s easy to focus on what divides us, North Carolina offers a reminder: Some of the most important work we do — preparing people for the future of work and ensuring employers have access to skilled talent — is our north star and unifying force.

And in our shared goal of 2 million by 2030, we are not just building a stronger workforce. We are building a stronger state — for today and for generations to come.

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Cecilia Holden

Cecilia Holden is the president and CEO of myFutureNC, a statewide initiative focused on the state’s educational attainment goal.

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