North Carolina
North Carolina vs Pitt Odds, Picks, Prediction | College Football Betting Preview (Saturday, Sept. 23)
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North Carolina vs Pitt Odds
Saturday, Sept. 23
8 p.m. ET
ACC Network
North Carolina Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 |
50.5 -105o / -115u |
-300 |
Pitt Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 |
50.5 -105o / -115u |
+240 |
North Carolina begins conference play on the road at Pittsburgh on Saturday night.
UNC is off to a fantastic start to the season, beating both South Carolina and Minnesota while also surviving a double-overtime thriller with Appalachian State.
The Tar Heels are one of the dark horses to win the ACC this season and have one of the best quarterbacks in college football in Drake Maye. They’ve lost their last two trips to Pitt with both ending in overtime, so we’ll see if they can exact some revenge on Saturday night.
Pitt is off to a pretty terrible start, losing back-to-back games to Cincinnati and West Virginia. The offense put up just 27 combined points in those two games, so Frank Cignetti Jr. and Phil Jurkovec have to get things figured out.
Maye put up some crazy numbers last season, but maybe the most impressive was a 90.8 PFF passing grade. Only two quarterbacks in college football had a better grade: Alabama’s Bryce Young and Houston’s Clayton Tune, who are both now in the NFL.
Maye had an absurd 45 big-time throws last season, which was by far the most in college football. Through three games this year, he already has a PFF passing grade of 90.2 while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with an 85.3% adjusted completion percentage.
Maye is also a fantastic runner. He carried the ball 183 times last season and gained over 900 yards with 26 missed tackles forced and 32 runs of 10-plus yards. He’s already run for 140 yards on 14 attempts this season and is truly one of the best dual-threats in the country.
North Carolina has all five starters and 137 starts back on its offensive line. It struggled to protect Maye last year, but its pressure rate allowed is already down 7% from 2022, so the Heels are making improvements.
The problems that existed for North Carolina in 2022 came on the defensive side of the ball. Time and again, it couldn’t cause turnovers or tackles for loss. It also couldn’t stop anybody once they crossed the 40-yard line, ranking 125th in Finishing Drives Allowed and 130th in Havoc.
The Heels have done a better job in both of those categories this year, ranking 22nd in Finishing Drives Allowed and 39th in Havoc.
They do have eight starters returning on the defensive side of the ball, and the good news is they didn’t lose much in their front seven with their top five tacklers from last season returning.
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Things are not going well for Cingetti and the Pittsburgh offense in his second season as offensive coordinator. He brought Jurkovec in from Boston College after coaching the quarterback in 2020 and 2021.
The Eagles could never protect Jurkovec in Chestnut Hill. Jurkovec was pressured on 43.3% of his dropbacks in 2022, which was the third-highest percentage in college football for quarterbacks with more than 200 dropbacks, per PFF.
Only three starters have returned on the offensive line, and Jurkovec still can’t get any protection. He’s getting pressured on 42% of his dropbacks through three games, which has translated to a 54.3 PFF passing grade and a 52% adjusted completion percentage.
Pitt ran the ball well against Wofford, which kind of inflated its rushing metrics. Against Cincinnati and West Virginia, the Panthers averaged only 3.3 yards per carry, which is a major problem considering they can’t protect Jurkovec.
The Pitt defense returned only five starters from last season and is struggling to generate Havoc, ranking 122nd in the country. A lot of the Panthers’ losses were in the front seven, as they lost their top four tacklers from last season.
Cincinnati ran all over them for 216 yards and 5.1 yards per carry in Week 2, so North Carolina could do the same with a mobile quarterback like the Bearcats have in Emory Jones.
North Carolina vs Pitt
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Carolina and Pitt match up statistically:
North Carolina Offense vs. Pitt Defense
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|||
Rush Success | 37 | 32 | |
Line Yards | 49 | 60 | |
Pass Success | 42 | 35 | |
Havoc | 11 | 122 | |
Finishing Drives | 105 | 63 | |
Quality Drives | 20 | 48 |
Pitt Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
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|||
Rush Success | 62 | 73 | |
Line Yards | 64 | 95 | |
Pass Success | 126 | 23 | |
Havoc | 63 | 39 | |
Finishing Drives | 66 | 23 | |
Quality Drives | 108 | 87 |
Pace of Play / Other
![]() |
||
PFF Tackling | 45 | 51 |
PFF Coverage | 24 | 50 |
Special Teams SP+ | 19 | 108 |
Middle 8 | 37 | 48 |
Seconds per Play | 24.8 (30) | 29.0 (95) |
Rush Rate | 54.3% (79) | 56.7% (49) |
North Carolina vs Pitt
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a really bad matchup for Pitt, and it all comes down to its offensive line not being able to protect Jurkovec. The BC transfer is not a good quarterback under pressure.
What makes it even worse is that the Panthers haven’t run the ball effectively against FBS opponents, so they’re kind of stuck offensively.
It seems that the North Carolina defense has solved its two biggest weaknesses of Finishing Drives Allowed and generating Havoc, which is huge in this matchup against a bad Pittsburgh offensive line.
Maye has lit it up once again offensively this season, and with the inexperience across the Panthers defense, there are some real question marks on how they’re going to stop him.
I have North Carolina projected at -11.2, so I like the value on the Tar Heels at -7.5 or better.
Pick: North Carolina -7.5
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North Carolina
NC has some of the most dangerous roads in the US: See how Wilmington-area counties rank
With a recent study revealing North Carolina as one of the states with the riskiest roads to travel, some may wonder how safe the roads are here in the Cape Fear region.
MarketWatch Guides, a site that provides “reviews of consumer products and services to help readers make educated purchasing decisions,” focuses in part on car insurance comparisons, vehicle safety and more.
A recent study by the site analyzed factors including annual miles driven per 100,000 system miles, percentage of rough roads and fatal injuries per 100,000 licensed drivers. States were given a rating out of 10 points, with 10 being the most dangerous.
More: Distracted driving in Wilmington: How big of a problem is it?
North Carolina’s ranking among the most dangerous
According to the study, the states with the most dangerous drivers based on the factors studied are:
- Louisiana – 7.55/10
- California – 7.21/10
- New Mexico – 6.74/10
- Hawaii – 6.73/10
- Delaware – 6.67/10
- New Jersey – 6.53/10
- Mississippi – 6.47/10
- North Carolina – 6.39/10
- Massachusetts – 6.33/10
- Maryland and Texas – 6.26/10
According to the study, North Carolina had 32.5 fatal injuries per 100,000 licensed drivers, but only 2.1% of rough roads, which was the lowest percentage out of the other ranked states.
For a more localized perspective, the North Carolina Department of Transportation releases annual traffic crash facts data. The most recent 2022 report includes a ranking of counties based on several factors, including reported crashes, crash severity, crash rates based on population, registered vehicles and estimated vehicle miles traveled.
The most dangerous county for drivers, ranked at No. 1 for the past five years, was Robeson County. The county had 60 fatal crashes in 2022 with 1,136 non-fatal injury crashes. The rest of the total 4,056 crashes were property-damage-only. The county with the best ranking was Hyde County, coming in at No. 100. The county had one fatal crash in 2022 and 10 non-fatal injury crashes. The county had a total of 45 crashes, the rest of which were property damage only.
More: MyReporter: Which intersections see the most red-light camera violations in Wilmington?
Here’s where the Cape Fear region counties ranked.
Brunswick County
Ranked No. 76 in 2022, Brunswick County had 25 fatal crashes and 715 non-fatal injury crashes. The total crashes for that year were 3,146. The remainder of the crashes were property damage only.
New Hanover County
Ranked No. 58, New Hanover had 19 fatal crashes and 1,313 non-fatal injury crashes, both of which went down from 2021. The total crashes in New Hanover were 5,617. The remainder of the crashes were property damage only.
Pender County
Ranked No. 47, Pender County had the worst ranking despite having the lowest number of crashes. The county had 12 fatal crashes and 374 non-fatal injury crashes, and a total of 1,156 crashes. The rest of the crashes were property damage only.
Iris Seaton, USA Today Network, contributed to this report.
North Carolina
Tropical Storm Debby expected to bring rainfall to Virginia & North Carolina
![Tropical Storm Debby expected to bring rainfall to Virginia & North Carolina Tropical Storm Debby expected to bring rainfall to Virginia & North Carolina](https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/355ef30/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1920x1008+0+36/resize/1200x630!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fewscripps-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F1e%2F8d%2F9b0dd1d740d0805c99316bedd457%2Fhurricane-stats-rainfall-totals.png)
Tropical Storm Debby already has parts of Florida under tropical storm warnings. The Florida Big Bend is currently under a Hurricane Warning. Debby is forecast to briefly strengthen into a category 1 hurricane as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures are near 90 degrees.
As it continues its path over land it is expected to dial back to tropical storm strength as it reaches the Carolinas mid to late next week. Moderate rainfall is possible for northeast North Carolina and southern Virginia by the end of the week.
Higher amounts of rain are possible for southernmost portions of the Outer Banks but generally models show 2-4 inches for northeast North Carolina and 1-2 inches for southern Virginia through Thursday.
Stay with News 3’s First Warning Weather Team for the latest updates as the storm develops.
North Carolina
Tropical weather update for Wilmington: What we can expect and when
![Tropical weather update for Wilmington: What we can expect and when Tropical weather update for Wilmington: What we can expect and when](https://www.gannett-cdn.com/authoring/authoring-images/2024/08/03/PPEN/74658494007-153935-5-day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png?auto=webp&crop=896,504,x0,y0&format=pjpg&width=1200)
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical depression over Cuba. It’s expected to become a tropical storm later Saturday, bringing impacts to the Carolinas around the middle of next week.
Heavy rainfall and flooding are the primary impacts expected, according to the National Weather Service in Wilmington.
“Gusty winds are also possible, but it is too early to predict specific impacts in great detail at this time,” the weather service said.
At the same time, there is the potential for heavy rainfall and some flooding associated with front expected to stall inland this weekend.
As of 11 a.m. Saturday, the center of the tropical depression, which would be name Debby if it becomes a tropical storm, was over Cuba and moving west-northwest near 15 mph. The hurricane center said a turn toward the northwest is forecast for Saturday, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastwardmotion Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. Slow strengthening is expected throughout the day Saturday. Faster strengthening is possible Sunday, with the storm nearing hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf Coast, the hurricane center said.
STORM TRACKER: Monitor the latest tropical developments here.
Here’s a look at what we can expect in the Wilmington area, according to the latest briefing from the National Weather Service in Wilmington.
Wind
The probability of tropical storm force winds has increased, especially for the South Carolina coast. The most likely time of arrival of for northeast South Carolina is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and for Southeastern North Carolina is during Wednesday morning.
Rain
The potential for significant rainfall exists with 8 to 12 inches possible from near Cape Fear to portions of thenortheast South Carolina coast. Flash flooding and urban flooding are possible. Some rivers, including the North Cape Fear River and the Waccamaw River, could exceed flood stage next week.
INTERACTIVE MAP: Enter your address to see hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed nearby
Marine impacts
Rough surf, including dangerous rip currents, and hazardous marine conditions are expected this weekend and will persist into the upcoming week.
Are you prepared for a hurricane?
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Even if this system won’t pose a threat to the NC coast, it’s never too early to be prepared.
GET READY: Are you prepared for a hurricane? Here’s what to know if you live in the Wilmington area.
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