Anyone who lives in North Carolina knows very well from the ads on TV and on YouTube, from the three presidential political mailers that show up in their mailbox every day, and from the constant barrage of spam texts supporting either Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Kamala Harris – that both presidential candidates are taking North Carolina and its 16 electoral votes very, very, seriously this year.

In fact, in this extremely strange election year of 2024, North Carolina could easily be the determining factor as to who wins what is, by far and unquestionably, the most consequential election in the history of the United States of America.

During the 2024 campaign for president, both Trump and Harris have frequented North Carolina.

Trump stormed through the state recently, and the campaign just announced that his vice-presidential running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, is coming to Hoke County this week to speak to potential supporters.

The Rhino Times isn’t sure of the last time that a presidential campaign visited the southern North Carolina Hoke County town of Raeford, with its 4,559 residents, but the publication does know that that means the Trump campaign is worried about losing the state’s electoral votes to Harris.

But should the campaign really be worried at all?

It’s true that – thanks to a razor-thin margin of 14,000 votes that went to Obama in 2008 in his nationwide landslide “Hope and Change” campaign victory – North Carolina did fall to the Democrat.

Others point to the fact that the voters of this state like to elect Democratic governors, which is another log that adds fuel to the fire for those who believe the state could go to Harris; and, if that does happen, it would mean that Harris would almost certainly be the next president of the United States.

Another worry of the Trump campaign this year is the Mark Robinson Factor.

While Robinson was leading Democratic NC gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein not all that long ago, now Robinson is persona non grata, and a recent Morning Consult poll had him running behind contender Josh Stein by 22 points.

The fallout from the posts that, according to CNN, Robinson made on various porn sites, has been tremendous.

And while some Republicans still call the reports “fake news,” that set of  Republicans clearly does not include Robinson’s top campaign staff (who resigned), Republican governors around the country (who withdrew their funding and endorsements), and Donald Trump (who now refuses to appear with Robinson at campaign events, will not mention Robinson’s name, and, when specifically asked about Robinson and the scandal, said, “I’m not familiar with the state of the race right now.”)

So, some Republicans are reasonably concerned that Robinson could create an “up-ballot effect” that may mean some number of Republicans don’t vote because they aren’t excited about their gubernatorial candidate.

But does any of it matter?

Many Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s 2008 razor-thin victory in the state is the exception that proves the rule – and that North Carolina, in the end, will this year, as it almost always has in modern history, end up being won by Republicans.

This was the subject of discussion on the highly popular “Hacks on Tap” podcast this week.

Political analyst David Axelrod said of the Harris campaign, “North Carolina is the second most rural state in the country and, you know, in this business you have to make judgments as to where you’re going to place your bet – because there are a lot of ‘fool’s gold’ states that seem like they’re in your reach, and you spend a lot of time and effort and money trying to win them. So, you know you have to make flinty-eyed judgments. Now Trump is making several appearances in North Carolina today so you know they understand.”

Nationally known political journalist John Heilemann, on that same podcast, said, “The Trump campaign looks worried about it, and you go to your ‘fool’s gold’ thing.  David we both know, since Obama and 2012, Democrats have been chasing North Carolina fool’s gold… but if you look at where the Trump campaign is spending time and you look at where the Harris campaign is spending time, it feels like North Carolina is more of a target for Harris and more of a vulnerability – or a perceived vulnerability –for Trump.”

Former Rhino Times Editor John Hammer wrote recently in his Substack column  “Hammer Down,” that there’s absolutely nothing for the Trump campaign to worry about when it comes to this state.

Hammer, in a piece called “North Carolina Doesn’t Swing,” made several interesting points.

“Here’s a little-known secret,” Hammer wrote. “North Carolina is not a swing state.  If you look at the mainstream media, North Carolina is always listed as a swing state in presidential races. Vice President Kamala Harris can’t seem to stay away, hoping frequent visits will win the voters of the state over.”

He also noted that Trump and Vance always “appear to be camping out somewhere between Murphy and Manteo.”

But Hammer added this: “The truth is that North Carolina has been reliably Republican for over half a century. In the past 52 years, the state has voted Democrat twice – in 1976 for Jimmy Carter, from the neighboring state of Georgia, and in 2008, for Barack Obama, our first black president.”

Hammer also noted that Obama didn’t win the state four years later in 2012 and that even the very popular Bill Clinton never won the state.  He also noted that Hillary Clinton didn’t win North Carolina in 2016 and Joe Biden didn’t win the state in 2020.

“Every four years the pundits say that the population in the state is changing and it can’t be considered a red state, and every year they are wrong,” Hammer wrote.

He added, “The people who understand North Carolina politics know that the state that elected Jesse Helms to the Senate five times is not likely to vote for a radical leftwing progressive for president.”

Trump supporters hope Hammer and many other pundits making the same arguments are correct – however, right now, Trump and his campaign staff don’t seem to share that confidence, which means that, over the next two weeks, Trump will continue his focus on the state.