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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction: Surging Bulldogs Take on the Wounded Wildcats

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction: Surging Bulldogs Take on the Wounded Wildcats


The No. 22-ranked Kentucky Wildcats are set to host the No. 16-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday evening in Lexington for an attractive Prime 25 matchup between SEC crossover rivals.

School Soccer Predictions for Each Sport in Week 7

Kentucky will look to rebound after struggling back-to-back convention losses in opposition to Ole Miss and South Carolina during the last two weeks. Following the heartbreaking 22-19 loss to the Rebels on the street, the Wildcats struggled mightily with out star quarterback Will Levis in a 24-14 dwelling loss to the Gamecocks final Saturday evening. Freshman quarterback Kaiya Sheron crammed in for the injured Levis, throwing for 178 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his debut. However he additionally threw an interception and was sacked six instances because the operating recreation did not supply a lot assist (3.4 ypc). Now 4-2 total (1-2 SEC), Mark Stoops’ Wildcats may have a chance to get their season again on monitor with a win over a surging Mississippi State squad.

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The Bulldogs enter this recreation using a wave of momentum after coming away with its third consecutive victory, dispatching Arkansas 40-17 at dwelling final Saturday. Mississippi State racked up 568 yards of complete offense, led by quarterback Will Rogers, who threw for 395 yards and three touchdowns to earn SEC Co-Offensive Participant of the Week honors. Within the course of, Rogers additionally broke Aaron Murray’s SEC profession completions document. It was a banner day for the run recreation in opposition to the Razorbacks as effectively, compiling 173 yards and three touchdowns — essentially the most speeding yards ever within the Mike Leach period. Working again Dillon Johnson led that effort to grow to be the primary 100-yard rusher beneath Leach at Mississippi State. The 5-1 (2-1 SEC) Bulldogs hope to maintain the momentum rolling on Saturday evening with their first win at Kroger Discipline since 2014.

Saturday evening’s contest will mark the fiftieth assembly between the 2 colleges. Mississippi State holds a razor-thin 25-24 lead within the sequence. The Wildcats and Bulldogs have break up the final six conferences within the sequence, with the house group coming away victorious in every of these matchups. Mississippi State received 31-17 final season in Starkville.

No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 Kentucky

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When Mississippi State Has the Ball

Quarterback Will Rogers continues to thrive in Mike Leach’s Air Raid assault, an offense that’s averaging 38.5 factors and 461.3 yards per recreation. Rogers leads the nation in passing yards (2,110), whereas his 22 landing passes rank second. His 71.6 p.c completion fee is tops within the SEC. Rogers likes to unfold the ball round, because the Bulldogs boast six totally different cross catchers with at the very least 20 receptions by six video games. Extensive receiver Caleb Ducking leads the group in each receptions (28) and landing catches (7), whereas Rara Thomas is tops in receiving yards (368). Fellow wideouts Rufus Harvey (27 rec., 271 yds., 2 TDs) and Lideatrick Griffin (20, 239, TD) have been important contributors within the passing recreation as effectively. Griffin additionally stars within the return recreation with a formidable 31.1-yard common on kickoffs.

Whereas the run recreation is normally an afterthought in Leach’s pass-happy offense, “The Pirate” has turned extra to the bottom assault this season in an effort to be barely extra balanced and assist open up the passing recreation. Working backs Dillon Johnson (6.0 ypc) and Jo’quavious “Woody” Marks (5 speeding TDs) have been as much as the problem, whereas additionally being an integral a part of the passing recreation.

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The Mississippi State offense will probably be examined in opposition to a strong Kentucky protection that’s giving up 307.2 yards and 16.3 factors per recreation, each of which rank within the high 20 nationally. The Wildcats are sixteenth within the nation in opposition to the cross, permitting simply 174.2 yards per recreation. In addition they have allowed solely three landing passes whereas recording 5 interceptions. Defensive again Carrington Valentine is presently tied for the SEC lead in cross breakups with seven.

The priority is that Kentucky has but to face a passing offense as potent as Mississippi State’s, though the Wildcats have already had their fill of Rogers. Final season, he picked UK aside for 344 yards and a landing whereas misfiring on simply three makes an attempt (36-for-39) within the Bulldogs’ 31-17 victory. A cross rush that has generated solely 9 sacks in six video games could not supply a lot assist in slowing down Rogers, particularly if the bottom recreation continues to be efficient when referred to as upon. Kentucky has missed linebacker Jacquez Jones’ presence and manufacturing on the sector whereas he is been sidelined by a foot harm.

When Kentucky Has the Ball

The Kentucky offense continues to be a piece in progress, averaging an underwhelming 356.3 yards and 26.3 factors per recreation beneath new offensive coordinator Wealthy Scangarello. The excellent news is that the Wildcats are anticipated to have star quarterback Will Levis (foot) again after sitting out final week’s recreation in opposition to South Carolina. Levis is the driving power behind the Kentucky offense. A projected first-round 2023 NFL Draft choose by some analysts, Levis has thrown for 1,405 yards with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions whereas finishing 68.8 p.c of his passes. He additionally has two scores on the bottom.

Even when he performs, Levis in all probability will not be at one hundred pc on Saturday, and the identical may be mentioned for his two favourite targets as effectively. Main extensive receiver Tayvion Robinson (25 rec., 392 yds., 3 TDs) is questionable with an undisclosed harm, whereas No. 2 receiver Dane Key (19, 291, 3) is listed as possible regardless of studies that he’s sporting a forged on his wrist. That leaves freshman standout Barion Brown (17, 288, 2) as Levis’ solely totally wholesome choice amongst his beginning wideouts. The opposite concern for the Wildcats’ offense is a line that has already surrendered 25 sacks. That is essentially the most within the SEC and the third-most sacks allowed by an FBS group.

The offensive line’s poor efficiency additionally has impacted Kentucky’s operating recreation, which is averaging 92.5 yards per recreation and has produced simply 4 speeding touchdowns. To place this in perspective, Mississippi State is gaining extra yards on the bottom per recreation (106.7) regardless of operating the ball 56 fewer instances than the Wildcats (152 makes an attempt vs. 208) up to now. The return of operating again Chris Rodriguez Jr. has helped bolster Kentucky’s speeding assault, however he is run for lower than 200 yards with one landing in his first two video games. In the meantime, main rusher Kavosiey Smoke (53 att., 269 yds. TD), has been coping with a concussion and his standing for Saturday is unknown.

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Defensively, Mississippi State is permitting 21 factors and 358 yards per recreation. Groups have had extra success throwing the ball in opposition to the Bulldogs (219.5 ypg), which may bode effectively for Levis. However MSU is tied for the SEC lead with eight interceptions, led by standout cornerback Emmanuel Forbes’ 4 to go together with 10 passes defended. He leads the convention and is among the many high gamers in FBS in each classes.

Ultimate Evaluation

Dwelling-field benefit looms giant for Kentucky, with the house group profitable every of the final six conferences on this sequence. Levis additionally is predicted to be again this week, which ought to present the offense with a pleasant increase. Nonetheless, he could also be restricted to a point, and that additionally goes for 2 of his high cross catchers. Throw in a leaky offensive line and a run recreation that has but to realize a lot traction, and the Wildcats’ probabilities for a giant evening on offense seem bleak.

On the opposite aspect of the soccer, Kentucky may have its fingers full in opposition to a red-hot Rogers and a much-improved Mississippi State floor assault. To not point out the truth that Mississippi State is plus-four in turnover margin, whereas the Wildcats are minus-three. Momentum additionally favors the Bulldogs, who ought to handle to sneak out of Kroger Discipline with the win.

Prediction: Mississippi State 27, Kentucky 21

Podcast: Full Week 7 Preview, Predictions, and Picks Towards the Unfold + Newest in Teaching Information

— Written by Rob McVey, who’s a part of the Athlon Contributor Community. Observe him on Twitter @Rob_UTVOLS.

*Value as of publication.

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Moments that mattered in Mississippi State’s loss to No. 23 Missouri

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Moments that mattered in Mississippi State’s loss to No. 23 Missouri


STARKVILLE — Mississippi State’s defense came to play early in Saturday’s game against Missouri, but as has frequently been the case when Coleman Hutzler’s unit has a rare bright moment, the offense could not take advantage.

The No. 23 Tigers were backed up inside their own 10-yard line following a 48-yard Nick Barr-Mira punt, and then the Bulldogs’ defense delivered three straight big plays. Safety Hunter Washington violently broke up a screen pass on first down, linebacker Stone Blanton tripped up running back Nate Noel for a loss on second down, and after Isaac Smith brought the first wave of pressure on third down, Zakari Tillman sacked Brady Cook just outside the end zone.

With limited space for the snap, the ensuing Missouri punt traveled just 39 yards, and Kevin Coleman’s return gave MSU the ball at the Tigers’ 32. But on second-and-8, freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren faked a handoff to Davon Booth and faced pressure from Eddie Kelly Jr. as he surveyed his options downfield. He stumbled as he tried to step up in the pocket, leaving the ball dangling in his right hand as he tried to stay on his feet.

Defensive tackle Kristian Williams knocked the ball out, and before anyone in maroon realized what was happening, safety Daylan Carnell scooped it up in stride and took it back 68 yards for a touchdown without any Bulldog laying a hand on him.

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MSU never recovered from the shock to its system, and Missouri went on to win 39-20.

“That was rough,” center Ethan Miner said. “Those situations happen, and it’s human instinct when something goes wrong, you want to get down. You can’t allow yourself to do it. You have to keep pushing. That’s what happens in life. That’s what happens in this game. Adversity is going to strike. How are you going to respond?”

Burden’s impressive catch underscores Tigers’ third-down success

The Bulldogs (2-9, 0-7 Southeastern Conference) trailed by just four points after a quarter, but the Tigers (8-3, 4-3) extended their first drive of the second quarter when Cook evaded a would-be sack from Branden Jennings and scrambled to move the chains on third down. Missouri kept moving on the ground until Sulaiman Kpaka burst into the backfield to bring down running back Nate Noel for a four-yard loss, bringing up a third-and-9 at the MSU 28.

Cook rolled to his right and flung the ball on the run toward the end zone, where star receiver Luther Burden III was tightly covered by safety Corey Ellington. But Ellington never turned back to the ball, and Burden made a last-second adjustment to separate himself from the defensive back and bring the ball in as he went to the ground. The Bulldogs never again trimmed the deficit to one score.

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The Tigers finished 11-for-18 on third down and 2-for-2 on fourth down, and their average yards to go on third down was just 4.6. Missouri was a perfect 6-for-6 on medium-distance third downs (between five and eight yards).

“That’s just a play. (Burden) made a play,” said Blanton, who had a game-high 18 tackles. “Can’t hang our heads too hard on that. Other stuff, we have to be able to get off the field on.”

Fourth-down stop effectively ices game

Despite possessing the ball for less than four minutes in the second half, MSU pulled back within striking distance on Booth’s 43-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. After a missed field goal from Missouri, the Bulldogs were poised to get even closer, starting their next drive with a 49-yard deep ball from Van Buren to Kelly Akharaiyi.

On the second play of the fourth quarter, MSU faced a fourth-and-3 at the Tigers’ 17. Instead of kicking a field goal to get within one score, head coach Jeff Lebby kept his offense on the field, and Van Buren made a simple two-step drop and had Mosley open across the middle. But his throw was too low, and Mosley couldn’t quite reach down far enough to gather the ball in.

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The Tigers proceeded to take almost nine minutes off the clock before Marcus Carroll put the final nail in the coffin with his third touchdown run of the game.

“We’re down 11, we have a chance on fourth-and-3,” Lebby said. “We’re being aggressive. The book (says) go all the way, I’m going for it, and we have to make that layup. That’s truly a layup where we have the ability to pitch and catch.”

Mississippi State Football MSU

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Snap Counts from Mizzou at Mississippi State, Season Tracker

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Snap Counts from Mizzou at Mississippi State, Season Tracker


The Missouri offense was on the field for over two thirds of the No. 23-ranked Tigers’ victory over Mississippi State in Week 13, possessing the ball for 41 minutes and 51 seconds.

The Missouri offense played 79 snaps in the win, tying its previous high in snaps in SEC play from when the Tigers won over Vanderbilt in double overtime.

The full snap counts for both sides of the ball for Missouri revealed some interesting lineup moves. Here’s the full counts found on Pro Football Focus.

Offense

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LG Cayden Green, 79, 100%
RT Armand Membou, 79, 100%
C Drake Heismeyer, 79, 100%
QB Brady Cook, 79, 100%
LT Marcus Bryant, 79, 100%
RG Cam’Ron Johnson, 79, 100%
TE Jordon Harris, 57, 72%
TE Brett Norfleet, 53, 67%
WR Joshua Manning, 49, 62%
WR Theo Wease Jr., 45, 57%
WR Luther Burden III, 38, 48%
HB Nate Noel, 37, 47%
WR Marquis Johnson, 33, 42%
WR Mekhi Miller, 26, 33%
HB Marcus Carroll, 21, 27%
HB Jamal Roberts, 20, 25%
LG Mitchell Walters, 9, 11%
WR Daniel Blood, 5, 6%
HB Kewan Lacy, 1, 1%
TE Tyler Stephens, 1, 1%

• Interesting to see Joshua Mannig get more snaps than any other wide receiver. The coaching staff have praised his run blocking ability before though, which was what he did on 35 of his snaps.

• Pretty impressive for Marcus Carroll to score three touchdowns while only playing 27% of snaps

Defense

CB Dreyden Norwood, 50, 100%
S Daylan Carnell, 47, 94%
LB Triston Newson, 45, 90%
S Joseph Charleston, 43, 86%
CB Toriano Pride Jr., 41, 82%
ED Johnny Walker Jr., 40, 80%
ED Zion Young, 35, 70%
LB Corey Flagg, 33, 66%
DL Kristian Williams, 33, 66%
S Caleb Flagg, 27, 54%
DL Chris McClellan, 27, 54%
DL Sterling Webb, 27, 54%
S Marvin Burks Jr., 23, 46%
LB Chuck Hicks, 22, 44%
DL Eddie Kelly Jr., 17, 34%
CB Nicholas Deloach Jr., 15, 30%
ED Jahkai Lang, 12, 24%
S Tre’Vez Johnson, 11, 22%
DL Marquis Gracial, 8, 16%
DL Jalen Marshall, 7, 14%
S Sidney Williams, 7, 14%
LB Nicholas Rodriguez, 2, 4%

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• Nicholas Deloach Jr. was the more relied upon corner opposite of Dreydon Norwood for each of the past two games, but Toriano Pride Jr. stepped back into that role in this one.

• With Tre’Vez Johnson dealing with some sort of injury, Caleb Flagg saw some more playing time at safety.

Offense

LT Marcus Bryant, 764, 100%
RT Armand Membou, 756, 99%
RG Cam’Ron Johnson, 679, 89%
LG Cayden Green, 673, 88%
QB Brady Cook, 602, 79%
C Connor Tollison, 582, 76%
WR Theo Wease Jr., 566, 74%
WR Luther Burden III, 492, 64%
TE Brett Norfleet, 359, 47%
TE Jordon Harris, 331, 43%
WR Joshua Manning, 329, 43%
WR Mookie Cooper, 328, 43%
HB Nate Noel, 323, 42%
WR Mekhi Miller, 313, 41%
G Mitchell Walters, 265, 34%
HB Marcus Carroll, 239, 31%
C Drake Heismeyer, 232, 30%
WR Marquis Johnson, 223, 29%
QB Drew Pyne, 217, 28%
HB Jamal Roberts, 193, 25%
TE Tyler Stephens, 126, 17%
WR Daniel Blood, 119, 16%
T Jayven Richardson, 57, 7%
G Logan Reichert, 56, 7%
G Tristan Wilson, 49, 6%
HB Kewan Lacy, 43, 5%
G Curtis Peagler, 26, 3%
HB Tavorus Jones, 24, 3%
TE Jude James, 21, 3%
WR James Madison II, 13, 2%
WR Courtney Crutchfield, 10, 1%
WR Logan Muckey, 8, 1%
C Talan Chandler, 7, 1%
TE Whit Hafer, 3, 0%
QB JR Blood, 2, 0%

Defense

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CB Dreyden Norwood, 517, 79%
S Marvin Burks Jr., 475, 73%
S Daylan Carnell, 465, 71%
ED Johnny Walker Jr., 445, 68%
CB Toriano Pride Jr., 438, 67%
DL Kristian Williams, 401, 61%
ED Zion Young, 397, 61%
S Joseph Charleston, 384, 59%
LB Triston Newson, 380, 58%
DL Chris McClellan, 370, 57%
LB Corey Flagg, 345, 53%
CB Nicholas Deloach Jr., 313, 48%
S Tre’Vez Johnson, 269, 41%
LB Chuck Hicks, 258, 39%
DL Sterling Webb, 236, 36%
S Sidney Williams, 236, 36%
DL Eddie Kelly Jr., 223, 34%
LB Khalil Jacobs, 223, 34%
ED Jahkai Lang, 185, 28%
DL Marquis Gracial, 139, 21%
S Caleb Flagg, 124, 19%
DL Jalen Marshall, 114, 17%
ED Joe Moore, 105, 16%
LB Nicholas Rodriguez, 103, 16%
DL Sam Williams, 49, 8%
CB Marcus Clarke, 44, 7%
ED Williams Nwaneri, 38, 6%
S Jaylen Brown, 37, 6%
S Trajen Greco, 36, 6%
DB Shamar McNeil, 32, 5%
LB Jeremiah Beasley, 28, 4%
DB Phillip Roche, 24, 4%
DB Ja’Marion Wayne, 22, 3%
DL Elias Williams, 11, 2%
LB Brayshawn Littlejohn, 11, 2%
LB Brian Huff, 8, 1%
CB Jaren Sensabaugh, 6, 1%
CB Justin Bodford, 6, 1%
CB Cameron Keys, 6, 1%
CB Nasir Pogue, 6, 1%
LB Brady Hultman, 2, 0%
LB Will Norris, 1, 0%



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Mississippi blows opportunity at making the College Football Playoff with Florida loss

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Mississippi blows opportunity at making the College Football Playoff with Florida loss


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Anyone pushing for Mississippi to be in the College Football Playoff at this point is either on the payroll of the Southeastern Conference or wants to be at some point in the future. 

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That’s the truth, as plain and simple as it can be after the Rebels choked away the best opportunity in the history of their program Saturday, losing 24-17 at Florida.

No SEC championship game. 

No playoff. 

No nothin’, other than a New Year’s trip to Orlando or some such place that will force everyone in the program to pretend they’re honored and happy to be there. 

And given the vaunted name, image and likeness payroll Lane Kiffin had to work with this year, it’s nothing less than a massive program-wide choke job. You want to play with the big boys after all these years? Fine, go ahead.

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But you better take care of business. Instead, Ole Miss messed around and put together one of the most disappointing and confounding seasons they’ve ever had. 

With all the hype, all the talent, all the momentum behind Kiffin after they dominated Georgia two weeks ago, are you really going to tell me the Rebels couldn’t do better than 5-for-18 on third and fourth down against a Florida team left for dead weeks ago?

We can break down all the mistakes Ole Miss made in this game from Kiffin’s hard-headedness in handing the ball to defensive tackle JJ Pegues in short yardage to a missed 34-yard field goal to a muffed punt return that handed Florida three points to quarterback Jaxson Dart refusing to tighten his chin strap. There are a lot of things Kiffin will regret. 

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But the bottom line is pretty straightforward. No team with losses to Florida, LSU and Kentucky should be within a mile of the playoff. And the worst part for Kiffin is that it was so avoidable. 

Yeah, the SEC is tough. So what? We’re in a new era here with the 12-team playoff. In a league like the SEC, you can survive losses, especially if you also have good wins. 

There has to be a limit, though. Three is just too many. 

Florida’s playing well toward the end of the season, but a real playoff team goes into Gainesville and handles a Florida team that just got its sixth win. 

LSU is a big brand name with lots of talent, but the Tigers are 6-4 and just not very good.

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Kentucky almost certainly isn’t going to a bowl game. 

Had any of those three games gone the other way, it would have almost certainly put Ole Miss in the 12-team field. The Georgia win was that valuable, and beating South Carolina 27-3 is one of the more underrated great performances of the season given how good the Gamecocks have been otherwise. 

And at some point, there will be a three-loss team in the expanded playoff. Maybe even this year. 

But it shouldn’t be Ole Miss. It can’t be Ole Miss, not when those losses all occurred to average or worse opponents. 

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You have to point the finger at Kiffin. Yes, he’s elevated the Rebels’ program significantly. But for years, his record in the really important games that define seasons has been questionable. After the Georgia win, that narrative was starting to turn. If Ole Miss had simply beaten Florida and Mississippi State, it would have all but locked up its spot. And Kiffin would have been arguably the most important figure in the modern history of Ole Miss football. 

Maybe he will be one day. But it’s not going to be this year. 

For Ole Miss to implode and miss the playoff with such a stacked roster, and when most of the hard work had been done, is a crushing disappointment. 

It’s also a gift to the likes of Indiana and Tennessee. The manner in which the Hoosiers were beaten 38-15 by Ohio State certainly frames their resurgence a bit differently. They didn’t look the part at all and will end the season without any standout wins. But assuming they beat 1-10 Purdue next week, there’s little chance the committee can drop them below Ole Miss. 

The Vols also stand to benefit from the developments in Gainesville. The first team out this week, according to the committee, they are in much better position heading into next Saturday’s game against Vanderbilt. 

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SEC homers will undoubtedly argue that both the Vols and Rebels should be in. Already this week, commissioner Greg Sankey was on social media sharing some strength of schedule data as he begins his public lobbying effort to stack the bracket with SEC teams. 

And while the SEC is probably the best and deepest conference, you’d have to do a lot of mental gymnastics to conclude that the parity we’ve seen is evidence that it’s stacked with great teams. What’s closer to the truth is that the SEC has several pretty good, but deeply flawed teams, whose inconsistencies tend to show up on the road. 

The SEC will spend the next couple weeks claiming that the league’s depth means all of them should be in the playoff. The committee shouldn’t — and won’t — fall for it. Sorry, Ole Miss. But you’re out. 



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