Rivalry Week brings us one of college football’s best in-state animosities, as the 2024 Egg Bowl features Ole Miss playing host to Mississippi State. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss started 1-2 in SEC play, but played its way back into College Football Playoff consideration with a signature victory over Georgia that impressed the selection committee.

Then, it lost on the road to the unranked Gators, a shocking upset that appeared to dash those hopes entirely.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, is 0-7 in SEC play and inching towards the end of a debut season for head coach Jeff Lebby that everyone just wants to forget and move on from.

What can we expect as the Rebels welcome the Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl?

Here’s what you should watch for as Ole Miss faces off against Mississippi State, with our updated prediction for the game.

1. At the line. Ole Miss fields one of the nation’s best defensive fronts, leading the country with 4.5 sacks per game and over two dozen over the last month, and is tops in FBS with 108 tackles for loss forced, the only team in triple digits, and No. 1 with 9.82 negative plays created per game.

That’s a serious matchup problem for Mississippi State, whose offensive line surrendered 3.2 sacks per game, ranking 122nd in the nation, and is 109th among 134 FBS teams by allowing 6.64 tackles behind the line and 73 total this season.

2. Bulldogs on the ground. MSU’s offense has struggled in just about every facet of the game, but has been running the ball a little better with Davon Booth working from the backfield. He’s averaged more than 6 yards per carry in 4 of his last 5 games and eclipsed 100 yards in his last 2 appearances.

Getting him going will be crucial for the Bulldogs to extend drives and keep the Rebels’ offense off the field, but Booth is running against the nation’s No. 2 ranked run-stop, a unit that allows just 2.39 yards per carry and all of 6 rushing touchdowns this season.

3. What it means. This game was supposed to be a coronation of sorts with Ole Miss almost certainly clinching a spot in the 12-team playoff, but last week’s loss at Florida may have played this team out of College Football Playoff contention altogether.

Or did it? Not to get anyone’s hopes up, but the Rebels are still kind of, sort of, very technically speaking, within striking distance at No. 14 in the committee’s rankings.

A big win here could help, but Ole Miss needs a lot of outside confusion, too, including some serious chaos in the ACC title race, for a start. It would take more than that, but there are six teams ahead of the Rebels who can do some losing in the next two weeks that leaves a tiny sliver of a path open.

Ole Miss is a 24.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the Egg Bowl.

FanDuel set the total at 61.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -3500 and for Mississippi State at +1280 to win outright.

Do the Rebels come out with guns blazing, angered from the Florida loss and hoping to give the selection committee something else to consider?

Or do they start slow and uninspired feeling their season has been lost?

Strange things happen in the Egg Bowl, and playing at home with one last chance to make a statement suggests the former, especially given the obvious matchup advantages Ole Miss has over its rival.

Mississippi State allows nearly 41 points per game in SEC play and doesn’t have the bodies in coverage to pose a credible threat to the Rebels’ skill arsenal.

Nor can the Bulldogs honestly withstand the kind of pressure that Ole Miss will bring from its dominant front seven.

College Football HQ picks …

More … Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert football model

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1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

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When: Fri., Nov. 29
Where: Oxford, Miss.

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

Data Skrive

Tre Harris will lead the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) into their battle versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-9) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

You’ll want to check out ABC for the upcoming game between the Rebels and Bulldogs.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Learn more about the Ole Miss Rebels and the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

How to Watch Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

• When: Friday, November 29, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
• Live Box Score: FOX Sports

Read More About This Game

• Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Predictions

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State: Head to Head

• Mississippi State has an even 1-1 record against Ole Miss in the past two matchups.
• The Bulldogs have covered one time with one push in those games, with the teams not outscoring the total once.
• Ole Miss has outpaced Mississippi State 39 points to 31 in the past two games.

Ole Miss’ 2024 Schedule

Ole Miss 2024 Stats & Insights

• Ole Miss has been a tough matchup for opposing teams, ranking top-25 in both total offense (second-best with 532.8 yards per game) and total defense (18th-best with 312.5 yards allowed per game) this year.
• Ole Miss ranks 77th in pass defense this season (224.9 passing yards allowed per game), but has been thriving on the offensive side of the ball, ranking best in the FBS with 361.8 passing yards per game.
• The Rebels have been a tough opponent for opposing teams, as they rank top-25 in both scoring offense (ninth-best with 38.5 points per game) and scoring defense (fifth-best with 13.9 points allowed per game) this year.
• The Rebels rank 57th in rushing yards this season (171 rushing yards per game), but they’ve been shining on the other side of the ball, ranking second-best in the FBS with 87.5 rushing yards allowed per game.
• Ole Miss owns the 54th-ranked offense this season in terms of third-down efficiency (41.4% percentage), and has been better defensively, ranking 14th-best with a 31.8% third-down conversion rate allowed.
• With 19 forced turnovers (23rd in the FBS) against 11 turnovers committed (30th in the FBS), the Rebels’ +8 turnover margin is the 19th-best in college football.

Ole Miss 2024 Key Players

Mississippi State’s 2024 Schedule

Mississippi State 2024 Stats & Insights

• Mississippi State ranks 75th in total yards per game (381.5), but it has been worse on the other side of the ball, ranking seventh-worst in the FBS with 462.1 total yards conceded per contest.
• Mississippi State ranks 58th in passing yards per game (234.5), but it has been worse on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 23rd-worst in the FBS with 248.2 passing yards allowed per contest.
• The Bulldogs have been struggling defensively, ranking 13th-worst with 34.8 points given up per game. They have been better on the other side of the ball, compiling 26.9 points per contest (77th-ranked).
• The Bulldogs’ defense has been a bottom-25 unit in run defense this season, ceding 213.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks ninth-worst in the FBS. Offensively, they rank 81st with 146.9 rushing yards per contest.
• Mississippi State’s defense has been a bottom-25 unit on third down this season, surrendering a 47.6% third-down conversion percentage, which ranks seventh-worst in the FBS. On the offensive side of the ball, it ranks 88th with a 47.6% third-down rate.
• At -3, the Bulldogs sport the 87th-ranked turnover margin in the FBS, with 12 forced turnovers (96th in the FBS) and 15 turnovers committed (61st in the FBS).

Mississippi State 2024 Key Players

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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