The Miami Dolphins weren’t considered serious playoff contenders after starting the season with a 2-6 record.

However, the Dolphins have gone 5-2 in their last seven games to emerge as a potential wild-card threat in the AFC. Their path to the postseason isn’t easy, but if Mike McDaniel’s squad can keep winning, it might have a chance to go to the playoffs for a third consecutive year.

Miami isn’t in control of its own destiny. To make the 2025 NFL playoffs, it must win out and receive help from several teams.

How can the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here’s a look at their postseason chances as the final weeks of the 2024 NFL season unfold.

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Dolphins playoff chances

The Dolphins have a 16% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That ranks as the second-lowest chance among the four AFC teams vying for the conference’s No. 7 seed.

Dolphins playoff odds

The Athletic’s model is much more optimistic about the Dolphins’ chances than DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings lists Miami with +1600 odds to make the postseason. That gives the Dolphins an implied probability of just 5.88% to qualify for the playoffs.

What needs to happen for Dolphins to make playoffs?

The Dolphins need three things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

That represents the Dolphins’ only path to a postseason appearance.

Dolphins remaining schedule

The Dolphins don’t have an overly difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They are playing against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets in the final two weeks of the season. That gives Miami the sixth-easiest schedule league-wide entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29.

However, both of Miami’s games are on the road in outdoor stadiums. That could hurt the team’s chances of winning if the weather is inclement.

The team is also expected to be without Tua Tagovailoa in Cleveland due to a hip injury, so the team will need backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to guide it to a win to stay alive in the NFL playoff race.

Below is a full look at Miami’s schedule:

Broncos remaining schedule

The other good news for the Dolphins is that the Broncos have a difficult matchup to close out the 2024 NFL season. Denver is scheduled to host Kansas City in Week 18. The Chiefs have a 15-1 record and beat the Broncos in a tightly contested 16-14 Week 10 matchup.

That said, it isn’t clear whether the Chiefs – who clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed on Christmas with a 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers – will play their starters in the final week. If not, that could make Denver’s path to a playoff-clinching win a bit easier.

As such, Miami’s postseason fate may ultimately rest in the hands of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Below is a look at Denver’s schedule:

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Colts remaining schedule

Here’s where things get problematic for the Dolphins. They need the Colts to lose, but Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

The Colts are playing against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined 5-25 record, over the final two weeks of the season. They will be favored in both of those games despite having to start backup quarterback Joe Flacco against the Giants with Anthony Richardson (back, foot) injured.

So, unless the Colts lose to one of the NFL’s worst teams, the Dolphins won’t be able to make it into the postseason, even if the Broncos stumble.

Below is a full look at Indianapolis’ schedule:

Dolphins potential playoff opponents

The Dolphins can only be the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs if everything breaks right for them. That leaves Miami with only two possible opponents to face. They are as follows:

The Bills have the inside track to the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a Week 17 win over the Jets. The Dolphins are 0-2 against the Bills this season, losing by a combined score of 61-37.

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AFC playoff picture Week 17

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
4. Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
7. Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

Dec 28, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; Iowa State Cyclones defensive lineman J.R. Singleton (58) and wide receiver Jaylin Noel (13) celebrate with the trophy after defeating the Miami Hurricanes at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

 ORLANDO, Fla. — Iowa State’s defense forced Miami to punt just once in Saturday’s Pop-Tarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium.

 But it came at the perfect time — the one, final time the No. 18 Cyclones could furiously complete their 42-41 comeback win over the 13th-ranked Hurricanes.

 “I was never nervous about (the offense) scoring,” said senior captain and defensive tackle J.R. Singleton, who watched his quarterback Rocco Becht lead ISU on a last-minute outcome-sealing drive that helped met him Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP honors. “They’d been moving the ball all day, right? It was just about us getting stops. And it was really weird. We were just off in a couple places, like we were getting them in third and longs, and then couldn’t get them off there field.”

 Until 6:34 remained. And it’s not like the Cyclones’ defense — which allowed 308 rushing yards and 524 total yards — didn’t get off the field in other more opportunistic ways. ISU recovered a fumble on Miami’s first snap from scrimmage, collected another one as the Hurricanes were driving in the third quarter, then cemented the win in recently-returned, and formerly-injured safety Drew Surges’ interception on the final play of the game.

 That’s three takeaways to zero giveaways, and that’s the biggest reason the Cyclones (11-3) escaped Camping World Stadium with a win for the first time in three tries.

 “This is about team, and getting everybody to believe in something bigger than yourself,” said ISU head coach Matt Campbell, who improved to 3-4 in bowl games in his successful nine-season tenure. “It’s one of the great rewards and we are fortunate to be able to do it here at Iowa State.”

 Campbell called Singleton the Cyclones’ “spiritual leader” at the team’s pep rally on Friday and Singleton continued to serve in that role as ISU slowly strengthened defensively as the game wore on. Miami (10-3) racked up 358 of its 524 yards in the first half, and managed to gain just 55 yards in the fourth quarter.

 The Cyclones won 11 games for the first time in program history — extending the previous record streak by one. ISU had won nine games twice, and once under Campbell, and made reaching historic milestones a theme throughout a season that surpassed all the others.

 “I don’t think there’s anything I could say to describe it,” Singleton said of attaining 11 wins. “It’s been 133 years. We made history.. Obviously, we were pushing to get into that (College Football Playoff), but you aim for the moon, and land on the stars. And it’s not bad being on the stars.”

 So the Cyclones’ moon shot ending up pushing them light years ahead. None of it came easy, but what would be the fun in that?

 “It’s been a really unique journey here,” said Campbell, whose team went 3-9 in his first season at ISU. “I’ve said this before with so many people — when we took the job and we came to Iowa State, I think they said, man, you’re going to the coaching graveyard.”

 And look at them now: Toting off a Pop-Tarts Bowl trophy that has a working toaster attached.

 “I had a bunch of my friends here for the first time to see me play,” said Becht, who grew up in Florida and was named the Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP. “It was special for me to get this win.”

 CARSON CRUISES

 ISU tailback Carson Hansen rushed for two touchdowns and also scored via the air. His 30-yard touchdown run in the first quarter was the longest by a Cyclones in a bowl game. Hansen ended the season with 15 touchdowns (13 rushing, two receiving). 

 “I love this team,” the sophomore from Lakeville, Minn., said. “Getting 11 wins is just something you’ll never forget.”

 ETC.

 Iowa State finished as one of 17 FBS teams to not allow 300 yards passing in a single game this season. They gave up 216 yards via the air against the Hurricanes. … Campbell is not just the Cyclones’ winningest head coach in program history — he’s also won the most bowl games (three). He passed Dan McCarney in both areas, and the former ISU head coach attended Saturday’s game. … The Cyclones went 3-for-4 on fourth down conversions to finish the season 20 of 25 in such situations. That ranks second-best among FBS teams. 

Miami quarterback Cam Ward didn’t take the field for the second half of Saturday’s Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando, but Hurricane fans shouldn’t be worried.

Miami backup quarterback Emory Williams started for the team to open the third quarter and immediately led the Hurricanes on a touchdown drive.

Hurricanes team reporter Christy Chirinos shared that Ward had a big smile on his face as the team scored the touchdown, which likely indicates he’s out of the game as a precaution for his 2025 NFL Draft preparations. In For The Win’s latest mock draft, we have Ward as the No. 2 overall pick.

Ward threw his 156th touchdown pass during the game, which gave him the NCAA Division I record for touchdowns thrown in a college career.

With the record in the books, Ward and the team perhaps decided it wasn’t worth the injury risk in the second half. He could be the first player off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft next spring.

However, it’s always possible he rejoins the game before it ends.