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Francine path updates: Where will forecasted hurricane make landfall?

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Francine path updates: Where will forecasted hurricane make landfall?


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Editor’s note: Read Tuesday’s updates on Francine as the storm takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Francine, which formed Monday, has taken a slow, meandering path across the Gulf. It’s now gathering speed and taking direct aim on the Louisiana Gulf Coast, with landfall expected there sometime on Wednesday.

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“Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through this afternoon, and then move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said in a midday Tuesday forecast. Towns closest to the location of expected landfall include Morgan City and Houma, Louisiana.

New Orleans should brace for major flooding rain, winds of up to 73 mph, the possibility of tornadoes and 3-5 feet of storm surge, the local weather service office said Tuesday. The city, infamously ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, was just to the east of Francine’s worst impacts, according to Tuesday forecasts.

After landfall, the storm’s center is expected to move into Mississippi “on Wednesday night or Thursday.”

As the system approaches the central Gulf Coast and eventually pushes inland across Louisiana, an increased threat of life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and considerable flash flooding is anticipated, the hurricane center warned.

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As Francine neared, authorities called for a mandatory evacuation of residents in three coastal communities, schools were shut and officials distributed sandbags.

Tropical Storm Francine tracker

What’s causing Francine to move north?

Other weather systems are shoving Francine around: An approaching trough of low pressure over Texas should cause Francine to turn northeast at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 hours, “and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening,” the hurricane center said.

“After landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States.”

Louisiana no stranger to storms

The most recent hurricane to hit Louisiana was Ida in 2021, AccuWeather said. “Between 2019 and 2021, Louisiana had eight tropical storms or hurricane landfalls, including major hurricanes Laura and Ida,” noted Alyssa Glenny, AccuWeather meteorologist, in an online report.

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Heavy rain and inland flood threat

Along with the threat from strong winds and storm surge comes the threat for heavy rainfall:

“Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday,” the hurricane center said. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches are forecast across much of central and eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday night, the National Weather Service said.

Francine spaghetti models

Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

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Tropical Storm Francine to become a hurricane before making landfall along Louisiana coast

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Tropical Storm Francine to become a hurricane before making landfall along Louisiana coast


Tropical Storm Francine to become a hurricane before making landfall along Louisiana coast

Tropical Storm Francine will continue to strengthen Tuesday as it moves closer to making landfall.

Francine is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves closer to the coast of Louisiana.

The storm will bring heavy rains, storm surges, and a hung flooding threat to parts of Louisiana and Texas.

Watch: ‘Torrential rainfall’ possible Tuesday in Central Florida

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Francine could become a Category 2 storm before making landfall Wednesday evening.

Channel 9 meteorologists are also monitoring a few tropical waves in the Atlantic that could strengthen this week.

Watch: Action 9: How to prepare before the storm

Thankfully, none of the active tropical systems are currently threatening Florida.

Follow our Severe Weather team on X for live updates:





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Louisiana Braces for Storm Expected to Hit as Hurricane

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Louisiana Braces for Storm Expected to Hit as Hurricane


Tropical Storm Francine strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and was forecast to make landfall as a hurricane Wednesday night in Louisiana, where evacuation orders were quickly issued in some coastal communities and residents began filling sandbags in preparation for heavy rains and widespread flooding. Francine, the sixth named storm of the hurricane season, was expected to become a hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday morning, the US National Hurricane Center in Miami said. The storm is already being felt in Mexico, where rains closed schools as the storm gathered strength, the AP reports.

Forecasters said the storm is expected to hit Louisiana’s coast as a Category 2 hurricane, the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports. Officials warn that flooding in the area is likely to begin Tuesday afternoon and persist through Thursday.

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  • “We’re going to have a very dangerous situation developing by the time we get into Wednesday for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast, primarily along the coast of Louisiana, where we’re going to see the potential for life-threatening storm surge inundation and hurricane-force winds,” said Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center.
  • A storm surge warning has been issued from east of Galveston, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. A hurricane warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City.
  • The storm surge pushed by Francine could reach as much as 10 feet along a stretch of Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Port Fourchon and into Vermilion Bay, forecasters said. And if the current track holds, the storm could blow northward up the Mississippi River, into the Illinois area by Saturday. “Francine is expected to bring multiple days of heavy rainfall, considerable flash flooding risk,” Brennan said.
  • Louisiana officials urged residents to immediately prepare for the storm while “conditions still allow” for it, Mike Steele, spokesperson for the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, told the AP. “We always talk about how anytime something gets into the Gulf, things can change quickly, and this is a perfect example of that,” Steele said.
  • Francine is taking aim at a stretch of coastline that has yet to fully recover since hurricanes Laura and Delta decimated Lake Charles, Louisiana, in 2020, followed a year later by Hurricane Ida.

(More hurricane stories.)





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Louisiana sanctions use of pepper spray and mace on detained juveniles | The Lens

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Louisiana sanctions use of pepper spray and mace on detained juveniles | The Lens


In one of its first moves since taking over licensing and oversight from the Department of Children and Family Services, the state Office of Juvenile Justice (OJJ) has authorized the use of mace and pepper spray in local juvenile detention facilities. 

OJJ had already sanctioned the use of mace and pepper spray in its long-term “secure care” facilities, which hold teens who have been convicted and put into state custody. But even there, its use was criticized by advocates – and the kids themselves.

At the Jackson Parish Detention Center, guards would use pepper spray in response to minor verbal altercations, said one young man who spoke with The Lens. He described being sprayed indiscriminately while in OJJ custody in Jackson last summer. Each guard carries an orange can of pepper spray, he said, so if a kid talked back, a guard might lift his hand and spray into the child’s face, he said.

In response to a teen showing disrespect or violating an order, guards would also frequently reach into the door of the cell or the dorm and depress the sprayer for five or six seconds, then turn off the water in the cells after teens were sprayed, the young man claimed. The Jackson Parish Sheriff’s Department did not respond to questions from The Lens on the matter.

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Once the pepper spray was in the air, the young man said, it would float to neighboring cells, affecting the eyes and breathing of everyone within the area. Its use hit him hard, he said, because he suffers from asthma and found that he could not breathe unless he covered his face with a pillow and blanket. 

“It burns to breathe,” he said. “It cuts off oxygen.” 

On top of the physical pain, he described a psychological toll. 

“It’ll make you feel violated, it’ll make you feel wronged, it’ll make you humiliated, it’ll mess your mind up,” he said. “This is like a torture thing.”

At least one child has reported facial scarring due to the sprays, an advocate said.

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The negative impacts of chemical agents goes beyond the initial physical toll on kids, says Mark Soler, former executive director of the Center for Children’s Law and Policy, who has seen its use undermine trust between facility staff and kids, closing off communication in a way that will make it tough for staff to  manage future conflicts.

“When the kids don’t trust the staff, they’re not going to tell them anything,” Soler said. “And anybody who sprays pepper spray in my face —I’m not going to be sharing any information with them.”


Expanding use of mace, to kids held pretrial

In July, OJJ expanded the option to use pepper spray and mace on a whole new group of kids: those who are incarcerated pretrial across the state in facilities that are usually run locally, by cities or parishes.

A new state law took effect on July 1 that put OJJ in charge of licensing and regulating all detention facilities. Before then, it was under the authority of the state Department of Children & Family Services. 

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Soon after the shift, newly appointed OJJ director Kenneth “Kenny” Loftin implemented an emergency rule change allowing staff in those juvenile-detention facilities to use “chemical agents” – defined as “any product… which is dispensed by means of an aerosol spray to control an individual’s combative and/or restive behavior.”

Under DCFS, staff in detention facilities were barred from using any “chemical restraints,” including pepper spray and mace. 

Loftin’s move has drawn sharp criticism from youth advocates and attorneys.

“We have this new oversight agency who suddenly needs to put out emergency rules —  rules that bypass the legislative process and bypass a lot of public oversight,” said Aaron Clark-Rizzio, with Louisiana Center for Children’s Rights.

“It just starts looking very much like you want and intend to mistreat children inside jails, which we know in this state are full of children who are predominantly and Black and brown.”

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The Office of Juvenile Justice did not respond to questions from The Lens regarding the newest changes, and did not make anyone available for an interview. 

The new regulations appear to allow for a wide range of chemical sprays to be used on kids — with unspecified limits.

The young man who was housed in Jackson Parish told The Lens that guards used two different types of spray. One was a pepper gel carried by guards on their hips, he said, and used for minor altercations between individuals and staff members. Another he called “bear mace,” a stronger substance that came in a larger can, he said. It was used during riots and larger disturbances.

According to a DCFS inspection report from Jackson, the facility used at least three different types of chemical agents, only one of which would seem to be deployed by aerosol, making it allowable by the new rule. 

Jackson used JPX, OC spray, and pepper balls, DCFS inspectors reported. JPX, described in the report as a “mace-like substance,” appears to refer to a range of cartridge-based guns that shoot targeted streams of pepper-spray gel. OC spray is shorthand for oleoresin capsicum spray, a generic term for pepper spray. Typically, pepper balls are projectiles fired by a special launcher that burst on impact and create a cloud of pepper irritant.

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By using any of the products, the facility was in violation of the standards in place at the time, according to the DCFS report. It is unclear if JPX and pepper balls — because they are non-aerosol — would still be out of compliance with OJJ’s new emergency rules. 


‘Very few’ other states use mace on juveniles

Again, it seems, Louisiana is an outlier in its justice policies.

“While most law enforcement agencies across the country authorize the use of (pepper) spray on adult offenders, very few states authorize its use for juvenile offenders,” according to a 2011 brief on the issue written by the Council of Juvenile Correctional Administrators.

In 2019, only 14 state juvenile justice agencies authorized any use of chemical restraints in secure care facilities, according to a council study, while only seven states authorized its personnel to carry mace in secure-care facilities. (Louisiana sanctioned its use in secure-care facilities after the survey.) 

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The handful of states that permitted mace have commonalities. “Additional analyses found that those States that authorized the use of chemical sprays also had adopted policies and procedures that were more punitive in nature and resembled a adult-correction approach to managing juvenile offenders,” according to the council’s 2011 summary.

“For an agency to use pepper spray in its juvenile facilities is testament to a colossal failure to have enough staff in the facility and [a failure] to provide adequate training for the staff in the facility,” said Soler, the former executive director of Center for Children’s Law and Policy. “I spent my career — 40 years — as a child advocate. I went into many, many juvenile facilities around the country and studied them very carefully. There is no need to use pepper spray in a juvenile facility. It’s just a sign that the administration doesn’t have any better ideas.”

Still, Louisiana’s new regulations do carry some restrictions. Chemicals can only be sprayed if youth are “armed/and/or barricaded” or pose “a danger of bodily harm to self or others.” Also, the situation must be urgent to the point that a delay “would constitute a serious hazard to the youth or others, or would result in a major disturbance or serious property damage.” 

Medical staff are to be consulted prior to use, but that only applies if the circumstance does not require “immediate response.”

Following its use, staff must file an incident report.

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Those policy guardrails merely prop up unnecessary action, Soler said. There are always other ways, he said, of controlling a situation in a detention facility without resorting to chemical sprays — which is why most facilities don’t use them at all. 


‘Say it, don’t spray it’ – feds prioritize talking before macing

Federal guidelines generally frown upon the use of chemical sprays.

The federal philosophy on chemical restraints is important because Louisiana gets funding through the federal Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, an office within the U.S. Department of Justice. To receive funding, states must submit plans about policies, procedures and training within juvenile facilities. The federal office’s guidelines, Juvenile Justice Use of Force Continuum, specify that “the least restrictive intervention/interaction should be used to garner cooperation from a youth” in juvenile justice facilities.

Last month, the U.S. Department of Justice used that same standard – “least restrictive intervention” – to describe changes needed within juvenile secure-care facilities in Texas. In a lengthy report, the DOJ included descriptions of staffers mistreating youth and over-using pepper spray, “far more frequently than necessary to meet the threat posed.” 

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To comply with federal “least restrictive” standards, Texas juvenile-facility staff now must first attempt verbal redirection and de-escalation techniques and other non-force interventions with each child. If those fail, they must use only the amount of pepper spray needed, followed by “adequate and timely decontamination of all children exposed to pepper spray via timely access to cold-water decontamination showers.”

Texas facilities must also  “identify and prohibit pepper spray use on children with chronic, serious respiratory problems or other serious health conditions that would make pepper-spray exposure particularly dangerous.”

Federal monitors have set limits on chemical sprays because pepper spray and mace could have serious adverse effects on youth. The Children’s Center for Law and Policy, a national organization that advocates on behalf of kids in the criminal legal system, emphasizes that facility staff may be unable to predict which kids might have “dangerous and potentially deadly” reactions to mace, because of asthma and other health conditions.

In general, children are especially vulnerable because they are “smaller in size, take more frequent breaths per minute, and have a limited cardiovascular stress response when compared to adults,” according to a Children’s Center fact sheet. The risks are even greater inside detention facilities, which often have limited ventilation. 

The Children’s Center analysis acknowledges that juvenile facilities must prioritize keeping youth and staff safe. But it notes that “[m]ost facilities fulfill that responsibility without using chemical agents such as pepper spray and tear gas.” 

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When sprays are allowed, the Children’s Center experts warn, staffers may automatically reach for the spray cans —  instead of finding “more effective and humane ways” of managing youth with behaviors that are often rooted in mental diagnoses such as emotional-behavioral disorders.


‘If a parent pepper sprayed their child they would be arrested’

Beyond giving detention staff permission to use pepper spray, the emergency order by OJJ opens the door to other previously banned practices and omits some youth protections.

DCFS had prohibited juvenile-detention staff from “punching, hitting, poking, pinching, or shoving,” a child in handcuffs or other restraints. The new emergency order removes that prohibition.

Under DCFS, medical providers in detention facilities were required to “ensure that any medical examination and treatment conforms to state laws on medical treatment of minors.” That provision has been deleted.

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Also, detention centers are no longer required to notify a child’s attorney when the child is accused of committing a crime while in detention, a provision that assured that a child had immediate legal backing for any in-custody offenses.

The newly implemented changes, when taken together, appear to be advocating “for harsher, more punitive and violent treatment of children,” while simultaneously avoiding accountability, Clark-Rizzio said.

In recent years, OJJ has been sued several times over the mistreatment of kids in their custody. In 2022, civil rights groups sued the agency over their plans to move kids to a wing of Louisiana State Penitentiary at Angola that had previously been used to house adult death-row prisoners. Last year, U.S. District Judge Shelly Dick ordered OJJ to move the youth out of Angola after finding that the agency was holding kids in solitary confinement while failing to provide sufficient education and mental-health programming.

The emergency rules are in place for six months, until mid-January. The new emergency rules also temporarily resolved a technicality, by bringing administrative code into compliance with the new law, which mandates that OJJ take over licensing and oversight from DCFS. 

Some critics believe that the OJJ order itself did not comply with state law, because it wasn’t triggered by any emergent conditions. State law only allows emergency orders for certain allowable reasons – including to “prevent imminent peril to health, safety, or welfare of youth, support staff, or the general public,” the reason used by OJJ last month. 

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“No ‘emergency’ justifies such a response,” Meg Garvey with the Orleans Public Defenders Office said in a statement. 

Once January arrives, OJJ can move to make the changes permanent, likely through the standard procedure for administrative-code changes — which include posting the change in the Louisiana register, soliciting feedback, and submitting a statement of fiscal impact. 

Garvey also described the order’s focus, the use of chemical sprays on juveniles, as “illegal,” pointing to a provision in the Louisiana Children’s code, which mandates that care for detained kids be “as nearly as possible equivalent to that which the parents should have given him.”

“If a parent pepper sprayed their child they would be arrested,” Garvey said.


JJIC still bans use of chemical agents in the facility

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It’s not yet clear how local detention centers in Louisiana are responding to the change in rules, and if they plan to start utilizing mace or pepper spray.

The Juvenile Justice Intervention Center, the pre-trial detention center in New Orleans, bans the use of any chemical agents in the facility and considers it “grounds for the immediate dismissal of the employee(s) involved,” according to policies posted online.

A spokesperson for the city confirmed that those policies were still intact, despite the changes by OJJ. 

JJIC administrators will likely remain opposed to using chemical agents in juvenile facilities, regardless of state standards, said Clark-Rizzio, whose clients are typically held in JJIC.

“Our understanding of that facility and its leadership is that they do not desire or intend to use pepper spray on the children there, Clark-Rizzio said. “So this (OJJ) change hasn’t led to them suddenly using pepper spray.”

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