Kentucky’s residence loss to South Carolina this week was one of the crucial stunning outcomes of the season. For context: The Wildcats had been favored by extra in opposition to the Gamecocks than they had been in opposition to Saint Peter’s in final yr’s NCAA event. The loss solely additional elevated the stress in Lexington, the place John Calipari’s program has slumped in recent times. With defending Nationwide Participant of the 12 months Oscar Tshiebwe again, nobody noticed the Wildcats’ struggles coming.

Right here’s a take a look at what has gone incorrect for Kentucky because it teeters on the bubble in mid-January.

Poor Offensive Execution and Spacing

This Twitter thread from Subject of 68 analyst (and former Clemson guard) Terrence Oglesby does an excellent job of capturing a few of Kentucky’s flaws offensively. In brief, a number of of the staple actions in Kentucky’s offense which were modernized in recent times to extend spacing by different packages haven’t been tweaked by the Wildcats, and there’s a scarcity of goal to the crew’s off-ball chopping and participant motion that hurts its means to get straightforward pictures. As Oglesby places it, “It’s simply so arduous to win constantly whenever you depend on tough pictures to win.” And when groups aren’t afraid of your level guard (Sahvir Wheeler), energy ahead (Jacob Toppin or Chris Livingston) or middle (Tshiebwe) from deep, tough pictures develop into an increasing number of prevalent.

Information from Shot High quality backs that up: Kentucky ranks 342nd nationally in “rim and three fee,” which means it’s taking extra midrange jumpers than simply about anybody within the nation. That’s typically not a recipe for achievement on the offensive finish. It typically feels just like the Cats’ greatest offense is simply placing the ball on the rim and counting on Tshiebwe to go get it.

Dangerous Ball Display screen Protection

Kentucky wasn’t elite defensively final season, however the Wildcats have fallen off considerably from final yr’s Thirty sixth-ranked unit (per KenPom) to this season’s group, which ranks 92nd. That drop turns into extra puzzling when you think about that freshman Cason Wallace is an elite defensive participant, each guarding the ball and getting steals in gaps. A lot of Kentucky’s points on protection appear to stem from struggles defending ball screens, the place Tshiebwe has gotten uncovered some this yr.

Alabama had tons of success attacking Tshiebwe in pick-and-roll conditions, even enjoying him off the ground at instances. Tshiebwe’s the defending Nationwide Participant of the 12 months and a necessity for this crew on the glass, so it’s not like sitting him is an actual possibility. However his vulnerability in coping with rollers in drop protection has opened issues up for opposing offenses, and poor rotations and communication haven’t helped. A few of Kentucky’s weak three-point protection might be attributed to unhealthy luck, however not all of it could.

As Kentucky Goes, This Group Isn’t That Proficient

Whereas Kentucky has sufficient expertise to be higher than its present 1–3 SEC mark, this isn’t some overwhelmingly proficient roster. Possibly we’d understand it in another way had touted recruit Shaedon Sharpe not elected to forgo his collegiate profession and head to the NBA a yr early, however there’s just one participant on this crew (Wallace) you possibly can confidently say can have an extended NBA profession. Calipari has seemingly made a aware determination recently (till the incoming 2023 class not less than) to take extra transfers and construct a roster whose items match collectively extra easily than his one-and-done-heavy teams of the previous. The issue proper now could be that the items don’t appear to suit collectively any higher than prior Kentucky groups, and this group isn’t constructed to blow groups away on expertise alone.

Once more, had Sharpe performed this yr in Lexington, the expertise disparity wouldn’t be as noticeable. It additionally wouldn’t shine by way of as a lot if Toppin had made the leap at energy ahead many anticipated within the preseason.

A Lack of Effort

Maybe the loss to South Carolina is sufficient to spark one thing on this Kentucky crew, however the Wildcats’ response to a disappointing begin hasn’t been the impressed one you’d anticipate from a crew that has a number of gamers of their closing yr of faculty basketball. In postgame interviews, Tshiebwe didn’t mince phrases, saying “a few of [my teammates] aren’t prepared to battle” and even suggesting Calipari ought to have put in walk-ons to attempt to spark the crew.

In some methods, Saturday’s showdown with Tennessee in Knoxville might be the most effective factor for Kentucky proper now. It’s a low-expectation recreation the Wildcats are anticipated to lose on paper, in opposition to a crew totally able to bullying Kentucky bodily if it doesn’t deliver the battle. If there’s a time a fractured group may come collectively once more, it will be for a recreation like this.

Institutional Dysfunction

The favored buzzword in faculty sports activities as of late is “alignment”—coach, athletic director, president and all the opposite stakeholders in lockstep on key points as issues change quickly within the trade. Institutional alignment seems to be missing at Kentucky proper now, most clearly illustrated by this summer time’s “basketball college” fiasco and reported on this week by The Athletic’s Kyle Tucker.

Tucker reviews that Calipari and athletic director Mitch Barnhart “now not have a relationship of any significance” and “don’t communicate to one another.” The “basketball college” feedback tied again to Calipari’s need to construct a brand new observe facility that Barnhart refuses to maneuver ahead on regardless of $30 million already pledged to the venture. Tucker additionally reported resistance from Barnhart on Calipari increasing his help workers, the kind of transfer that would probably assist Calipari from an X’s and O’s standpoint.