The Texas A&M Aggies (20-13) and Florida Gators (23-10) meet in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament Saturday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Texas A&M vs. Florida odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The 7th-seeded Aggies upset 2nd-seeded Kentucky in the quarterfinals Friday, winning 97-87 as 5.5-point underdogs as the Over (160) cashed. Texas A&M also topped Ole Miss, and it has won and covered 5 straight games with the Over connecting in 4 in a row.
The 6th-seeded Gators surprised Alabama Friday, winning 102-88 as 5-point underdogs as the Over (175) cashed. Florida is 5-3 straight up (SU) in the past 8 games, but it is just 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in the previous 7 outings. The Over has cashed in 6 straight and 8 of the past 9 contests.
Texas A&M topped Florida 67-66 in the only regular-season meeting, with the Gators cashing as 4-point underdogs in College Station Feb. 3 as the Under (151.5) cashed. The Aggies have won 5 straight in the series while covering 3 of those outings. The Under has cashed in 3 straight meetings while going 4-1 in the previous 5 in the series dating back to Feb. 15, 2022.
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– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
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Texas A&M vs. Florida odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Texas A&M +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Florida -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread: Texas A&M +2.5 (+100) | Florida -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 151.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Texas A&M vs. Florida picks and predictions
Prediction
Florida 82, Texas A&M 80
Moneyline
Florida (-160) will cost you almost 2 times your potential return, and that’s a little too much risk for not enough reward.
Texas A&M (+135) has been hot in this tournament, and it has racked up 5 huge wins in a row to strengthen its resume for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. It won’t go quietly, though, despite feeling much better after an upset of Kentucky.
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PASS.
Against the spread
TEXAS A&M +2.5(+100) is a strong play.
This is going to be a tussle, and the Aggies are playing with a lot of confidence after upending the 2nd-seeded Wildcats. Texas A&M has covered 5 in a row, and it’s worth playing as the underdog.
Florida -2.5 (-110) has won just 5 of the past 8 games while going 2-5 ATS in the past 7 outings.
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Over/Under
OVER 151.5(–110) is a strong play in this SEC semifinals matchup.
The Over is on a 6-0 run for Florida, as it is filling up the basket with a lot of ease lately. In fact, the Gators have hit triple digits in 2 of the past 4 games, and neither of those games went to overtime. The Gators are good for 81 or more points in 10 of the past 14 outings.
The Aggies aren’t usually known for their offense, but they dropped 97 on Kentucky Friday, and Texas A&M has scored 85 or more points in 4 straight outings, cashing the Over in each game.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
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The opening weekend of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament featured its fair share of heartbreaking losses.
Among them? Reigning national champion and No. 1 seed Florida dropped a close battle with scrappy 9-seed Iowa. Kansas was eliminated on a buzzer-beating layup by St. John’s. Kentucky suffered its worst NCAA tournament loss since 1972. And North Carolina surrendered a 19-point lead to fall to VCU in overtime.
With some of the most storied college basketball programs ending their seasons earlier than expected, ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf detail what’s next for each. Here’s your guide to their expected departures, returnees, top incoming recruits and where that leaves their personnel priorities for when the transfer portal opens April 7.
Record: 27-8 (16-2 in SEC) How their season ended: Lost to Iowa in second round
Expected departures
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Thomas Haugh (17.0 PPG) Xaivian Lee (11.4 PPG) Micah Handlogten (4.2 PPG)
Players with remaining eligibility
Alex Condon (14.9 PPG) Boogie Fland (11.7 PPG) Rueben Chinyelu (11.2 PPG) Urban Klavzar (9.7 PPG) Isaiah Brown (5.6 PPG) CJ Ingram (2.2 PPG) Viktor Mikic (1.3 PPG) Alex Lloyd (1.2 PPG) Alex Kovatchev (0.5 PPG) AJ Brown (redshirt)
Top incoming recruit: Jones Lay (three-star)
Florida has essentially eschewed immediate impact freshmen under Todd Golden, landing only two top-100 recruits in the past four recruiting classes combined. The incoming class is no different, with only the unranked Lay in the fold. He will very likely be a depth player early in his career, then his future will depend on development. The Gators did take a couple of swings at recruiting top-50 prospects, but will instead go to the portal or overseas for the rest of their newcomers.
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Portal priorities: Before Florida fully goes into the portal, the Gators will need to figure out which of their starters are returning to Gainesville. Haugh has played himself into a potential NBA draft lottery pick, so we can project him to leave for the NBA. But both Condon and Chinyelu were projected second-round picks in ESPN’s most recent mock draft, leaving their short-term futures more uncertain. Condon was a borderline first-round pick in 2025 and opted to return to school. It probably would cost at least $3 million to retain each, but they’ve been anchors for back-to-back No. 1 seeds, and Golden could see value in building around them again. Fland should return to school after also withdrawing from the NBA draft last spring.
If Condon, Chinyelu and Fland all return, Golden would need a Haugh replacement and additional shooting on the perimeter. Klavzar could move into the starting lineup with Lee gone, but he proved to be incredibly useful as a sixth man. Could any of the seldom-used roster players make a sizable jump and move into a consistent rotation role the way Isaiah Brown did from 2024-25 to 2025-26? It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Florida go into the portal or look at international players to bring in at least two or three more perimeter players. — Borzello
Record: 24-11 (12-6 in Big 12) How their season ended: Lost to St. John’s in second round
Expected departures
Darryn Peterson (20.1 PPG) Tre White (13.8 PPG) Melvin Council Jr. (12.6 PPG) Jayden Dawson (2.1 PPG)
Kinney is one of the best point guards in the 2026 class, and will step in immediately as the playmaking focal point of the offense with Peterson’s departure. He’s better as a scorer at this point in his development, especially when taking his defender off the dribble and attacking the rim. Kinney has improved as a passer and creator over the past year, so the next step on offense is becoming more consistent from the perimeter. His length should help him early as a defender.
Portal priorities: The frontcourt should be in good shape if Bidunga and Tiller both return; it would make sense for both to be retention priorities. Bidunga developed into one of the best defensive players in the country this season while also proving to be a capable scorer in the post. And Tiller showed very impressive flashes despite struggling down the stretch.
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With Kinney coming in to run the show at point guard, that leaves the wings as areas to improve for Kansas. It’s worth keeping in mind that the Jayhawks are considered the frontrunner to sign SC Next 100’s top overall recruit Tyran Stokes. If they do land him, that could change the calculus for their offseason roster construction. But with or without Stokes, they will need an immediate impact player on the perimeter — Rosario showed promise early in the season, and though he could take a step forward, Kansas would benefit from more proven production.
There’s also the elephant in the room: Bill Self’s status. Self said after the loss to St. John’s that he hasn’t decided on whether he will return next season. If he doesn’t come back, it’s entirely unclear how the Kansas roster will look. — Borzello
Record: 22-14 (10-8 in SEC) How their season ended: Lost to Iowa State in second round
You’re reading that right: Kentucky does not have a single commitment from the 2026 class as of Tuesday. The Wildcats pursued Tyran Stokes, but as Jeff detailed above, it seems the No. 1 recruit is leaning toward Kansas. It appears that coach Mark Pope will again construct a roster comprising returnees and transfers — but as he learned this season, that’s a risk. The Wildcats reportedly spent more than $20 million on their 2025-26 roster yet finished only two games above .500 in SEC play and advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament only because of a miracle buzzer-beater.
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Portal priorities: This season’s roster never jelled the way Pope anticipated, which means he might end up building another from scratch, depending on who stays or goes.
The backcourt has to be his top priority. Aberdeen and Oweh are out of eligibility, which means that not only will Pope need elite guards who are capable playmakers and scorers, but he’ll also need depth — especially at point guard. The latter has been a problem throughout his tenure. Even if Lowe returns, Pope will need multiple players at both guard positions to anchor next season’s roster.
The next priority: a big man. Though Moreno could take the next step as a sophomore, and Dioubate has been solid for stretches, the Wildcats didn’t have a dominant big with Quaintance contending with knee injuries. The teams still competing for this year’s national championship — Michigan, UConn, St. John’s and Duke — have imposing big men. Kentucky can’t enter another season without a strong inside presence.
Finally, with Chandler the only reliable 3-point shooter on this season’s squad, Kentucky also needs more support on the perimeter. — Medcalf
Record: 24-9 (12-6 in ACC) How their season ended: Lost to VCU in first round
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Expected departures
Caleb Wilson (19.8 PPG) Seth Trimble (14.0 PPG)
Players with remaining eligibility
Henri Veesaar (17.0 PPG) Luka Bogavac (9.8 PPG) Jarin Stevenson (8.1 PPG) Derek Dixon (6.5 PPG) Jonathan Powell (4.8 PPG) Kyan Evans (4.0 PPG) Zayden High (3.4 PPG) Isaiah Denis (1.9 PPG) Jaydon Young (1.8 PPG)
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Top incoming recruit: Dylan Mingo (No. 9)
Mingo is one of the elite guards in the 2026 class, despite being hampered by injuries for most of the high school season. He has great positional size and length, and projects to make an impact at both ends of the court. With Evans potentially leaving for the portal after struggling this season, Dixon and Mingo could share playmaking duties in the backcourt — if Mingo opts to keep his commitment, should Hubert Davis depart. Mingo didn’t pick Carolina until mid-February.
Portal priorities: Though Wilson is probably off to the NBA and Trimble is out of eligibility, Davis or his potential replacement will have to make Veesaar the priority. He had an early second-round projection in ESPN’s most recent mock draft, but he could opt to return to Chapel Hill for a substantial amount of money. If Veesaar is back at UNC, he and Stevenson should form one of the better frontcourt duos in the ACC. If Veesaar leaves, the Tar Heels will need to target a high-level big man in the portal.
In addition to a potential Veesaar replacement, the Tar Heels also probably will need an upgrade when it comes to perimeter shotmaking and explosiveness. None of Bogavac, Powell or Young were overly consistent as scorers. And though Mingo is a terrific addition — as is four-star forward Maximo Adams — neither is a knockdown shooter. If the roster falls apart following Davis’ potential departure, Veesaar, Stevenson and Dixon should be the retention priorities for a new coach. — Borzello
