The Waffle Houses haven’t even all reopened, but I’m sorry to tell you that the eastern Gulf Coast has to cope with yet another tropical threat this week.

However, much as many storm-damaged Waffle Houses are serving a limited menu, so too will this round of potential Gulf activity be narrower in scope, impacts, and affected areas than horrific Helene.

Heavy rainfall in the Florida peninsula starting this weekend is the key peril, but the coastal flooding and wind risks to Central and South Florida are unfortunately nudging higher as well.

What to expect – and not to expect – from the brewing Gulf storm

Let’s be clear about what this threat is NOT going to be, before delving into what it might be.

First, this is not going to bring rainfall into the southern Appalachians or north Georgia. Thankfully, these decimated areas remain much drier than normal for at least the next week.

Second, the Gulf environment does not favor another major hurricane forming. Third, steering winds blowing from west-to-east should keep anything that develops in the Gulf south of the tattered Big Bend and exhausted Panhandle. 

Additionally, there is no landfall threat from a formidable pair of storms in the Central Atlantic, Kirk and Leslie. Hurricane Kirk is 2024’s third Category 4 or higher storm, and the first to not grievously harm people.

Kirk (and to a lesser extent, Leslie) will create a heavy surf and rip current hazard at Atlantic beaches over the upcoming week, but otherwise be nice to look at from a distance as they curve out to sea over 1,000 miles from land. Here’s to you Kirk and Leslie, you are today’s real storms of genius.

National Hurricane Center name or no name, storm will bring heavy rain to Florida

Unfortunately, not all tropical weather is going to follow that gallant example this week.

I’ve been watching another Central American Gyre (CAG) take shape over the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean since last weekend, which has been lingering as a broad disturbance without focused convection.

Over the last couple of days, a concentrated dollop of rotation left over from the Eastern Pacific’s Tropical Depression 11-E has crossed southern Mexico and entered the southwestern Gulf relatively intact, gathering storms in the Bay of Campeche.

Over the weekend, this shot of energy may jolt the diffuse disturbance into doing what was less likely a few days ago: spinning up into a more organized, more tropical system on Monday or Tuesday, albeit one embedded in a complex, not purely tropical environment.

If you’ve been following my forecasts, I’ve been discussing how the several fronts draped across the Gulf in the upcoming week means the structure of the system might be broader than that of a usual tropical storm or hurricane, and therefore it wasn’t clear whether the resulting system would qualify to receive a name from the NHC.

The fact that the Pacific disturbance has gotten in the mix and convection is consolidating on the southwestern side of the CAG tilts the odds towards a tropical storm developing, though its interaction with those nearby fronts means widespread rain impacts for Florida no matter whether the disturbance is or is not a named storm.

Possibility of a low-end hurricane strike on Florida peninsula is possible as Panhandle gets taste of autumn

The Gulf is generally a hostile place for tropical activity this week, particularly its northern half where the subtropical jet stream will be blowing west-to-east as a deep trough of low pressure digs into the East Coast.

In fact, after some rain chances through Monday, the Panhandle will be chilling on the other side of a protective cool front by Tuesday. As upper-level steering winds direct the low to the east-northeast across the southern Gulf, vertical wind shear is expected increase as it gains some latitude and approaches west-central or southwestern Florida midweek.

Given the front to its north, the most probable path of the storm system is an east-northeastward track crossing the Florida coast somewhere between just north of the Tampa Bay region and the Keys, though that is a highly uncertain forecast at this stage.

If the disturbance comes together quickly through Monday while it is still in a favorable environment over the southern Gulf, hurricane intensity at a midweek landfall is on the table.

However, it is also perfectly plausible given the expected uptick in shear starting Tuesday that a less intense, broader, and weaker tropical storm, hybrid low, or convective frontal system may be the end result here. There are still a lot of possibilities, so check back in a few days for a better, or at least less uncertain answer.

Be ready for excessive rainfall in Florida, particularly along and south of I-4

The excessive rainfall that will be the most widespread impact of this storm system is a high confidence forecast across the various scenarios, however. Heavy rain will push east from the Gulf and into South and Central Florida peninsula starting Sunday, particularly along and south of I-4.

In Big Bend and north-central Florida, rainfall should be limited and end by Tuesday. With intermittent heavy rains continuing through at least midweek in South and Central Florida, seven-day accumulations there may generally exceed 5” and locally top 10”, and residents should be on alert for flash flood risks.

We’ll wait and see how things play out before discussing potential wind or surge issues, other than to note that the coastal flooding threat is higher in the areas more likely to be south of the track and have onshore flow.

Still, this potential should be monitored from the entire Tampa Bay area and south, particularly as the region is still reeling from the aftermath of one of the most severe and widespread surge events on record along the peninsular Gulf Coast.

Little precedent for this kind of storm becoming a hurricane, but this season has defied the odds

One final note: there’s little precedent for hurricanes striking the Florida Gulf Coast in October on an east-northeast approach, which indicates the shearing influence of mid-latitude weather.

Most late-season Florida threats that developed in the southern Gulf hit as tropical storms or non-tropical lows. However, there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in climatology, and as we’ve learned once again in the past couple of weeks, the events of our weather past do not constrain the threats of the future.

History also shows that Florida’s late-season hurricane risks remain high into late October, shifting south with time. Thus, South and Central Florida will need to pay close attention in the upcoming week, as hurricane season refuses to give us what we all want, and just let us eat our waffles in peace.

I’ll be back Monday with an update. Until then, keep watching the skies.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Visit weathertiger.com for more information. Email Ryan Truchelut at ryan@weathertiger.com.

An property insurer of last resort in Florida is set to hand over hundreds of thousands of policies to the private sector later this month due to overwhelming demand.

Earlier this year, regulators in the Sunshine State approved proposals that would allow private insurers to take policies from the state’s Citizens Property Insurance Corporation. Citizens, which was created by the Florida Legislature in 2002, provides insurance to eligible Florida property owners unable to find insurance coverage in the private market. It is the largest insurer in the state.

On August 2, insurance commissioner Michael Yaworsky signed an order allowing 10 private insurance carriers to take on 413,808 policies from Citizens beginning in late October. According to a report by Florida Politics, in the last two weeks, a further 235,035 were approved for removal beginning in November.

Newsweek has contacted Citizens for verification on this number via email outside of normal working hours.

The number of Citizens policies has soared in recent years as private insurers dropped customers and raised rates due to losses caused by payouts and litigation. Citizens has 1,250,791 policies in force as of August 2024. In August 2019, five years ago, it had 420,366 active policies.

“Citizens is committed to helping its policyholders find coverage in the private market,” its website reads. “As required by Florida law, Citizens’ Depopulation Program matches Citizens policyholders with insurance companies interested in removing their policy from Citizens and providing private-market coverage for their policy.”

The depopulation will arrive not long after Hurricane Helene hit Florida and other eastern states at the end of September. With a death toll that has now surpassed 200 people, with hundreds more still reported missing, it is shaping up to be one of the worst storms in U.S. history.

The latest data released by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation shows that 84,400 claims have been made by homeowners and businesses since Hurricane Helene hit, with 42,219 of these being for residential properties. So far, 1,340 of these claims have been closed with a payment, while 2,712 have been closed without a payment. More than 38,000 insurance claims are still open.

Florida residents are grappling with some of the highest home insurance rates in the country. According to Bankrate, the average insurance cost for a home valued at $300,000 in October 2024 is $5,527 per year—way higher than the rate for a home of the same value in neighboring Georgia ($2,071) and Alabama ($2,745).

The average home insurance premium in Florida is $3,242 more expensive than the national average of $2,285. In some areas, costs can climb to in excess of $8,000. The state average is second only to Nebraska, where the average premium on a $300,000 home is $5,652.

Hurricane Helene has left a wake of death and destruction across Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee after it made landfall in Florida on Sept. 26. Despite being downgraded to a tropical depression, hundreds were killed by the storm, millions are still without power, and the damage is estimated in the billions of dollars.

The number of confirmed deaths reached 214 Thursday after officials in the Carolinas released updates, according to a USA TODAY Network analysis. The storm wrought a level of destruction on western North Carolina not seen for over 100 years. Officials in North Carolina said deaths in the state had risen to 108, including 72 deaths in Buncombe County, as reported by the Asheville Citizen-Times. South Carolina has reported 41 fatalities, Georgia 33, Florida 19, Tennessee 11 and Virginia two.

Here is a closer look at the devastation left behind, captured by aerial photos taken by Nearmap, and satellite images captured by Maxar Technologies:

Contributing: Staff/Asheville Citizen-times; Sean Dougherty and Dinah Voyles Pulver/USA TODAY

More visual stories about Hurricane Helene: Need help in Asheville, NC, after Helene? Mapping locations of water, food, shelter, Wi-Fi

Starting Hurricane Helene cleanup? Here’s how to deal with flood and storm damage

How flood damage is cutting off North Carolina communities from emergency relief

Hurricane Helene was massive at landfall. Here’s how it compares with past storms

Hurricane season is not over yet: Why season winds mean Florida should stay on alert

Maps track Hurricane Helene’s 800-mile path of destruction across southeastern US

Maps show Hurricane Helene’s destructive path across Florida, Georgia

Emergency preparedness 101: What to pack in a ‘go bag’