As much of the western Florida Peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, recovers from massive storm surge damage associated with Hurricane Helene, the next hurricane threat for the United States is also focused on Florida. Here’s what we know right now about the next storm.

At the time of writing on Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean (Kirk and Leslie) and a system in the western Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Kirk is a powerful, major hurricane, but it nor Leslie will threaten the U.S. However, the system in the Gulf of Mexico is a different story. NHC’s morning discussion said, “Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.” The storm has a 70% chance of further development within the next two days, and a 90% chance within the next five days. My experience tells me that we could be looking at a tropical depression or named storm (Milton) later today or Sunday.

We use several models when evaluating these threats, but I will focus on the American GFS and European models, respectively. Both of them are in strong consensus that the storm could move towards the western Florida Peninsula with a potential landfall by the middle of the week. NHC warned, “By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely.”

At this point, I will not anchor to any single model solution outcomes. However, several outcomes show that the storm could intensify into a hurricane and potentially very strong one. Weather expert Michael Ventrice makes this point in the post above, but I caution you that is only one of the potential outcomes shown. His greater point is one that also worries me. When a storm like this gets into the likely climate-charged, abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico, I am always on high alert. If you are in Tampa Bay, Ft. Myers or anywhere along the Florida Peninsula or the Keys, I advise you to pay close attention to this storm. More immediately, the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico is likely to be affected.

There are several things that concern me about this potential storm. Irrespective of name (and it probably will get one), it is going to produce a significant amount of rainfall in Florida. Like Helene, it appears that rainfall could inundate Florida well ahead of the eventual tropical storm or hurricane. This is a recipe for flooding. Much of Florida is already recovering from Helene so this is the last thing they need. Also, both models suggest a landfall in a region spanning Tampa Bay to Fort Myers. There is still uncertainty, but the range of possibilities start to narrow since we are within the five-day window. With current track projections, even places like Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Miami, and the Bahamas should be paying attention.

Not surprisingly, the misinformation machine has been firing on all cylinders after Hurricane Helene. It is not unusual to have hurricanes in September or October. In fact, the peak of the Atlantic season is in September. The 2024 season was always projected to be quite active due to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, La Nina and other factors. That’s it, that’s the explanation.

Data Skrive

At 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, Phil Mafah and the Clemson Tigers (3-1) take on the Florida State Seminoles (1-4).

The game between the Tigers and Seminoles will be available on ESPN.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Learn more about the Clemson Tigers and the Florida State Seminoles.

How to Watch Clemson vs. Florida State

• When: Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 7:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida
• Live Box Score: FOX Sports

Read More About This Game

• Clemson vs. Florida State Predictions

Clemson vs. Florida State: Head to Head

• Clemson and Florida State have been a balanced matchup in the past two meetings, with two wins, two losses, and a tie for each team.
• Each team has covered in one game in the past two matchups with those games outpacing the total on one occasion.
• Clemson has scored 1 fewer point than Florida State in their past two games.

Clemson’s 2024 Schedule

Clemson 2024 Stats & Insights

• Clemson is totaling 457.0 yards per game on offense, which ranks 31st in the FBS. Defensively, the Tigers rank 100th, giving up 402.8 yards per game.
• Clemson is totaling 277.8 passing yards per game offensively this year (31st in the FBS), and is giving up 218.5 passing yards per game (75th) on the other side of the ball.
• The Tigers own the 83rd-ranked defense this year (25.8 points allowed per game), and they’ve been better on offense, ranking 14th-best with 42.0 points per game.
• From an offensive standpoint, the Tigers rank 54th in the FBS with 179.3 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank 104th in rushing yards allowed per contest (184.3).
• Clemson is posting a 38.3% third-down percentage on offense, which ranks them 80th in the FBS. On the other side of the ball, the defense ranks 45th, surrendering a 34.0% third-down conversion rate.
• With nine forced turnovers (17th in the FBS) against three turnovers committed (16th in the FBS), the Tigers’ +6 turnover margin is the 10th-best in college football.

Clemson 2024 Key Players

Florida State’s 2024 Schedule

Florida State 2024 Stats & Insights

• Florida State has not been getting things done offensively, ranking 10th-worst with 278.2 total yards per game. It has been better on defense, surrendering 382.0 total yards per contest (91st-ranked).
• In terms of passing, Florida State ranks 86th in the FBS (213.0 passing yards per game) and 73rd on defense (216.2 passing yards allowed per game).
• The Seminoles rank eighth-worst in points per game (15.2), but they’ve been more effective defensively, ranking 76th in the FBS with 24.6 points allowed per contest.
• The Seminoles’ rushing offense has been bottom-25 this season, compiling 65.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the FBS. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 95th with 165.8 rushing yards surrendered per contest.
• Florida State has been unproductive on both sides of the ball on third down this season, ranking 17th-worst in third-down conversion percentage (29.9%) and 10th-worst in third-down percentage allowed (47.2%).
• The Seminoles have fared poorly in terms of turnovers, as their turnover margin of -5 is 16th-worst in the FBS.

Florida State 2024 Key Players

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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College Football

The Waffle Houses haven’t even all reopened, but I’m sorry to tell you that the eastern Gulf Coast has to cope with yet another tropical threat this week.

However, much as many storm-damaged Waffle Houses are serving a limited menu, so too will this round of potential Gulf activity be narrower in scope, impacts, and affected areas than horrific Helene.

Heavy rainfall in the Florida peninsula starting this weekend is the key peril, but the coastal flooding and wind risks to Central and South Florida are unfortunately nudging higher as well.

What to expect – and not to expect – from the brewing Gulf storm

Let’s be clear about what this threat is NOT going to be, before delving into what it might be.

First, this is not going to bring rainfall into the southern Appalachians or north Georgia. Thankfully, these decimated areas remain much drier than normal for at least the next week.

Second, the Gulf environment does not favor another major hurricane forming. Third, steering winds blowing from west-to-east should keep anything that develops in the Gulf south of the tattered Big Bend and exhausted Panhandle. 

Additionally, there is no landfall threat from a formidable pair of storms in the Central Atlantic, Kirk and Leslie. Hurricane Kirk is 2024’s third Category 4 or higher storm, and the first to not grievously harm people.

Kirk (and to a lesser extent, Leslie) will create a heavy surf and rip current hazard at Atlantic beaches over the upcoming week, but otherwise be nice to look at from a distance as they curve out to sea over 1,000 miles from land. Here’s to you Kirk and Leslie, you are today’s real storms of genius.

National Hurricane Center name or no name, storm will bring heavy rain to Florida

Unfortunately, not all tropical weather is going to follow that gallant example this week.

I’ve been watching another Central American Gyre (CAG) take shape over the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean since last weekend, which has been lingering as a broad disturbance without focused convection.

Over the last couple of days, a concentrated dollop of rotation left over from the Eastern Pacific’s Tropical Depression 11-E has crossed southern Mexico and entered the southwestern Gulf relatively intact, gathering storms in the Bay of Campeche.

Over the weekend, this shot of energy may jolt the diffuse disturbance into doing what was less likely a few days ago: spinning up into a more organized, more tropical system on Monday or Tuesday, albeit one embedded in a complex, not purely tropical environment.

If you’ve been following my forecasts, I’ve been discussing how the several fronts draped across the Gulf in the upcoming week means the structure of the system might be broader than that of a usual tropical storm or hurricane, and therefore it wasn’t clear whether the resulting system would qualify to receive a name from the NHC.

The fact that the Pacific disturbance has gotten in the mix and convection is consolidating on the southwestern side of the CAG tilts the odds towards a tropical storm developing, though its interaction with those nearby fronts means widespread rain impacts for Florida no matter whether the disturbance is or is not a named storm.

Possibility of a low-end hurricane strike on Florida peninsula is possible as Panhandle gets taste of autumn

The Gulf is generally a hostile place for tropical activity this week, particularly its northern half where the subtropical jet stream will be blowing west-to-east as a deep trough of low pressure digs into the East Coast.

In fact, after some rain chances through Monday, the Panhandle will be chilling on the other side of a protective cool front by Tuesday. As upper-level steering winds direct the low to the east-northeast across the southern Gulf, vertical wind shear is expected increase as it gains some latitude and approaches west-central or southwestern Florida midweek.

Given the front to its north, the most probable path of the storm system is an east-northeastward track crossing the Florida coast somewhere between just north of the Tampa Bay region and the Keys, though that is a highly uncertain forecast at this stage.

If the disturbance comes together quickly through Monday while it is still in a favorable environment over the southern Gulf, hurricane intensity at a midweek landfall is on the table.

However, it is also perfectly plausible given the expected uptick in shear starting Tuesday that a less intense, broader, and weaker tropical storm, hybrid low, or convective frontal system may be the end result here. There are still a lot of possibilities, so check back in a few days for a better, or at least less uncertain answer.

Be ready for excessive rainfall in Florida, particularly along and south of I-4

The excessive rainfall that will be the most widespread impact of this storm system is a high confidence forecast across the various scenarios, however. Heavy rain will push east from the Gulf and into South and Central Florida peninsula starting Sunday, particularly along and south of I-4.

In Big Bend and north-central Florida, rainfall should be limited and end by Tuesday. With intermittent heavy rains continuing through at least midweek in South and Central Florida, seven-day accumulations there may generally exceed 5” and locally top 10”, and residents should be on alert for flash flood risks.

We’ll wait and see how things play out before discussing potential wind or surge issues, other than to note that the coastal flooding threat is higher in the areas more likely to be south of the track and have onshore flow.

Still, this potential should be monitored from the entire Tampa Bay area and south, particularly as the region is still reeling from the aftermath of one of the most severe and widespread surge events on record along the peninsular Gulf Coast.

Little precedent for this kind of storm becoming a hurricane, but this season has defied the odds

One final note: there’s little precedent for hurricanes striking the Florida Gulf Coast in October on an east-northeast approach, which indicates the shearing influence of mid-latitude weather.

Most late-season Florida threats that developed in the southern Gulf hit as tropical storms or non-tropical lows. However, there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in climatology, and as we’ve learned once again in the past couple of weeks, the events of our weather past do not constrain the threats of the future.

History also shows that Florida’s late-season hurricane risks remain high into late October, shifting south with time. Thus, South and Central Florida will need to pay close attention in the upcoming week, as hurricane season refuses to give us what we all want, and just let us eat our waffles in peace.

I’ll be back Monday with an update. Until then, keep watching the skies.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Visit weathertiger.com for more information. Email Ryan Truchelut at ryan@weathertiger.com.