Florida
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida's special congressional primaries
WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of the U.S. House isn’t on the line in Tuesday’s special congressional primaries in Florida, but Republicans are still eager to find replacements for former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz to add some breathing room to their slender majority in the chamber.
President Donald Trump looms large in the race, in both Tuesday’s primary and the special general election on April 1. He’s endorsed candidates in both GOP primaries and easily carried both districts in the November election.
Trump has backed state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis among a crowded 10-person field in Gaetz’s former 1st Congressional District. In Waltz’s 6th Congressional District, he endorsed state Rep. Randy Fine over two other candidates. Fine represents a Brevard County-based state Senate district located outside the Palm Coast-area seat he hopes to fill.
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Gun control activist Gay Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination in the 1st District. She challenged Gaetz for the seat in November, receiving 34% of the vote. Democrats George Selmont and Josh Weil compete for the nomination in the 6th District. Selmont is an attorney and filmmaker who ran for a neighboring congressional seat in 2018. He received 32% of the vote against GOP Rep. John Rutherford. Weil is a public school educator in Osceola County.
The 1st Congressional District borders Alabama on the Gulf Coast in the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle. It is home to both Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. The district is among the most reliably Republican areas of the state. The four counties that make up the 1st District have voted for Republican presidential candidates almost continually for the past 60 years.
On the other side of the state, the 6th Congressional District sits on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the district for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.
Trump’s support should carry considerable weight in both districts. His weakest performance in either district in last year’s general election was in Escambia County in the 1st District, where he received 59% of the vote.
In the November general election, Gaetz and Waltz won reelection with 66% and 67% of the vote, respectively. Gaetz resigned after Trump nominated him to be attorney general, but he later withdrew from consideration following ongoing scrutiny over a federal sex trafficking investigation and a House Ethics Committee investigation. Waltz resigned Monday to become White House national security adviser.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Machine recounts in Florida are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. If the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% of the total vote or less, a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is required. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
Special primary day
The special primaries in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. ET in the 6th District and 8 p.m. ET in the 1st District.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the Republican primary in the 1st Congressional District and the Democratic and Republican primaries in the 6th Congressional District. A Democratic primary will not be held in the 1st District as there is only one candidate.
Who gets to vote?
Florida does not allow voters registered with one political party to vote in another party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of October 2024, Florida’s 1st Congressional District had about 301,000 active registered Republicans and about 117,000 active registered Democrats. The 6th District had about 262,000 active registered Republicans and about 138,000 active registered Democrats.
Turnout in the August Republican congressional primaries was about 34% of registered Republicans in the 1st District and about 31% in the 6th District. Democrats did not have competitive primaries in those districts.
As of Thursday morning, more than 11,000 ballots had been cast in the 1st District Republican primary, nearly 15,000 in the 6th District Republican primary and nearly 9,000 in the 6th District Democratic primary.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results in the 1st Congressional District at 8:01 p.m. ET, or one minute after polls closed. The election night tabulation in the 1st District ended at 1:33 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted. In the 6th Congressional District, the first batch of votes was reported at 7 p.m. ET, just as polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 11:48 p.m. ET, with about 99% of the vote counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 63 days until the special general elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts.
ORLANDO, Fla. – Strong thunderstorms continue to push across Central Florida Thursday evening, with a few storms capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, torrential rainfall and isolated damage before activity gradually winds down later tonight.
The strongest storms are expected through about 10 p.m., with most of the activity weakening and moving offshore by around 11 p.m. Storms are being fueled by sea breeze collisions and abundant moisture across the state. In addition to strong wind gusts, torrential downpours could lead to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding in low-lying and poor-drainage areas.
While storms remain the immediate concern this evening, another round of impactful weather is expected Friday.
The News 6 Weather Team has designated Friday as a Weather Aware Day due to the combination of dangerous heat and the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Before storms develop, temperatures will climb into the low to mid-90s Friday afternoon. Combined with high humidity, it will feel more like 102 to 107 degrees across much of Central Florida. Some locations could once again approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. The atmosphere will be loaded with tropical moisture, allowing storms to produce frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and torrential rainfall.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Central Florida under a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather Friday. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms could become strong enough to produce damaging winds.
In addition, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Central Florida for a Level 1 out of 4 risk of excessive rainfall. Any storm will be capable of producing very heavy rain in a short amount of time, which could lead to localized flooding.
The unsettled pattern continues into the weekend. Storm coverage is expected to increase Saturday, and some locations could see multiple rounds of heavy rain. While a few stronger storms remain possible, the flooding threat may become a greater concern by Saturday afternoon and evening.
Looking ahead to next week, rain chances are expected to gradually decrease, but the heat is not going anywhere. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid-90s, with heat index values frequently climbing above 100 degrees. Forecast guidance suggests a higher heat risk could develop once again across Central Florida as we head deeper into next week.
At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues. Make sure you swim near a lifeguard if you’re heading to the beach.
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SEMINOLE COUNTY, Fla. (WFLA)— A Florida mental health counselor walked into a surprising number of bats inside her office last week.
“We had about 50 bats. In the toilet, in the sink. All over,” Shaltala Boss, a licensed mental health counselor, said.
Boss has since moved her office due to maternity season, when it is illegal to exclude or remove bats from April 16 to August 14, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.
“Any form of eviction during this time period will result in baby bats being trapped along with adult bats that may not have emerged. Trapped bats will attempt to escape and may end up in the living space of buildings,” FWC said.
Video provided by Boss showed a bat lying on the ground.
“You definitely didn’t want to come to counseling that day,” Boss said.
Boss has since moved to another location and said it is bat-free.
“Most bats will avoid humans at all costs and use natural roosting structures for shelter during the day. However, bats sometimes find their way into our homes and structures, which can present a health hazard,” FWC said.
Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is trailing Democratic candidate David Jolly in the race to become Florida’s next governor, according to a new poll from Change Research, a Democratic-aligned polling firm.
The survey could be an encouraging sign for Florida Democrats, who have not won a statewide election since 2018 and have struggled as the state shifted steadily toward Republicans in recent election cycles.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection in 2026, won a second term by nearly 20 percentage points in 2022, while Republicans have expanded their voter registration advantage and maintained control of every statewide elected office.
Still, some recent polling has suggested the push to replace DeSantis could be a bit more competitive than many have expected.
President Donald Trump last month again vocalized his support for Donalds, saying in part, “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” The president added, “Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!”
Trump won the Sunshine State by 13 points in 2024 against then-Vice President Kamala Harris and no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 20 years.
When reached for comment regarding the new poll, Donalds’ campaign referred Newsweek to the X post of Gates McGavick, the team’s communications director. McGavick said in reaction to the poll, “I hear Change Research also sells tremendous ocean front property in Arizona.”
The campaign also referred Newsweek to Ryan Smith’s post on X, while saying he is also affiliated with the campaign. Smith said, “This is a push poll by Democrats for Democrats. The truth is, Florida Democrats will be crying in their kombucha on November 3 when @ByronDonalds is elected governor.”
What To Know
The Change Research survey found Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties and entered the race as a Democrat, leading Donalds in a hypothetical general-election matchup.
Jolly has centered his campaign on affordability issues surrounding insurance costs, housing and healthcare, while Donalds has campaigned as a conservative successor who will attempt to enact Trump’s agenda and fight illegal immigration.
According to the poll, Jolly leads Donalds 47 percent to 42 percent and has a slightly larger margin among likely voters with 49 percent compared to 43 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,273 registered voters of which 1,015 said they will likely vote in the 2026 midterm election. The survey’s margin of error is 2.8 percent.
Also in the poll, Jolly garners 94 percent support from Democrats compared to Donalds’ 77 percent among Republicans.
What Other Polls Show
Another recent Change Research poll shows Jolly leading Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll was taken from May 13 to May 16 among 2,070 registered voters, of whom 1,593 say they will likely vote in the midterm election. The poll has a margin of error of 2.3 percent.
In a survey at the end of March by Emerson College Polling, Donalds landed 44 percent of the vote compared to Jolly’s 39 percent. The poll shows that 17 percent are undecided. It was taken from March 29 to March 31 among 1,125 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
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