After a prolonged absence from match play, FC Cincinnati will return to action Saturday night in a cross-conference visit with FC Dallas at Toyota Field. Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Fans can watch the game on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV and listen locally on ESPN 1530.

With The Orange and Blue deep in the heart of Texas, let’s break down this matchup with some key numbers to consider, presented by CTI.

Luciano Acosta has been the most impactful player in MLS dating back to the start of the 2023 season without a doubt. Since the start of the 2023 season, a year in which he won the MLS MVP, Acosta has had the most games with 2 or more goals+assists with 16 this season. Acosta, who also has 15 assists this season which leads MLS, also leads the league in games with 1+ goals and 1+ assists with 12, five more than the second place Lionel Messi of Inter Miami CF.

Pavel Bucha leads all midfielders with 17 balls won this season, which also stands fourth most in the league when factoring in all positions. Two of the three players above him on the full rankings, though, are his teammates, Miles Robinson and Matt Miazga, with 25 and 24, respectively. Right behind the Czech midfielder as well is teammate Obinna Nwobodow with 16 balls won in a tie for fifth place.

The newcomer to Cincinnati has been a force in the midfield as, on top of his importance in the midfield, Bucha is second on the roster behind only Luciano Acosta with 5 assists this season.

No active FC Cincinnati players have scored a goal against FC Dallas, but not for good reason. The last time FCC played Dallas was in 2019 on a trip to Toyota Stadium, where The Orange and Blue fell 3-1, with Emmanuel Ladesma scoring the lone goal.

With Yamil Asad’s headed goal last Saturday night, FC Cincinnati has now had 10 first-time goal scorers for the club this season, the second most since the club joined MLS in 2019 and the 13 debut goal scorers that season. Asad joins Malik Pinto, Alvas Powell, Isaiah Foster, Dado Valenzuela, Miles Robinson, Luca Orellano, Corey Baird, Kevin Kelsy and Pavel Bucha.

FC Cincinnati has been one of the best road teams this season in MLS, providing dominant performances on offense and defense when playing away from TQL Stadium. With 15.32 xG, third most in the league and 19 goals, also the most road goals in the league, the offense has clicked when it’s needed to to secure a 7-1-1 record on the road. On defense FCC has conceded just 12 times away from home and allowed 14.98 opponent xG, fifth most in the league on both fronts.

What matters most, though, is FCC has tallied a league-high 22 points away from home, putting The Orange and Blue already on pace for one of the best seasons away from home in MLS history. With the record road pace being set by LA Galaxy in 1998 (pre-draw era) at 35 road points, eight more road points would give FCC a tie for the top ten with 30.

The Lynx were coming off an impressive, nationally-streamed win in New York in the Commissioner’s Cup final. They had won nine of their past 10 regular season games, including six straight. Dallas was last in the league, had three key players injured and had lost 11 straight games.

Talk about switching the script.

With former Lynx player Odyssey Sims helping lead the way, with the normally stout Lynx defense looking as porous as it has all season, the visiting Lynx were handed a 94-88 loss by the Wings on Thursday afternoon in Arlington, Texas.

Hitting threes in droves, the Lynx appeared in control when Alanna Smith hit her career-high fifth three-pointer with 3:21 left in the second. But the Lynx were out-scored 69-44 over the final 33 minutes of the game.

Up a point entering the fourth quarter, the Wings pushed their lead to six on Monique Billings two free throws with 7:01 left.

The Lynx followed with a 7-0 run to take a one-point lead on Dorka Juhász’s jumper. Moments later, with 3:47 left, Napheesa Collier hit one of two free throws to forge a tie.

But then it was all Dallas.

Arika Ogunbowale hit a three, then the Lynx turned the ball over and Sims scored for a five-point Wings lead with 3:10 left.

The Lynx never got closer than three again.

Ogunbowale scored 23 points. Sims, signed this week because of Dallas injuries, had 18 points and four assists. Tieaira McCowan had 17 points and 12 rebounds.

Collier scored 29 points with 11 rebounds. Bridget Carleton had 17 points, Smith 15.

2023 Stats

Points per game: 29.9 (1st)
Total yards per game: 371.6 (5th)
Plays per game: 66.0 (3rd)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 38.5 (9th)
Dropback EPA per play: (0.23 (2nd)
Rush attempts per game: (27.5 (14th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.06 (11th)

Coaching Staff

After spending much of the 2023 offseason touting a more run-heavy approach than they had in 2022, Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy took over play-calling duties and led an offense that ranked fourth in neutral pass rate (61 percent) and 13th in early down pass rate (53 percent). Their three percent pass rate over expected was also good for fourth-highest behind only the Chiefs, Bengals, and Commanders.

Despite criticizing former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore for wanting to “light the scoreboard up,” McCarthy’s Cowboys led the league in points per game (29.9) last season and ranked fifth in yards per game (371.6). Reportedly set to go “all-in” to win in 2024, here’s how the Cowboys’ offense looks heading into this season.

Passing Game

QB: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush
WR: CeeDee Lamb, KaVontae Turpin
WR: Brandin Cooks, Jalen Brooks
WR: Jalen Tolbert, Ryan Flournoy
TE: Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker

Fresh off a year in which he threw for 4,516-36-9, Dak Prescott is entering the final year of the four-year deal he signed in 2021. Despite Dak seemingly being interested in re-upping with the team under a new contract, owner Jerry Jones has been unwilling to commit to his star quarterback beyond this season. Prescott’s cap number for the season narrowly exceeds $55 million, which has proven to hamstring the team’s ability to add significant talent this offseason — more on that later.

Prescott finished second in MVP voting last season and was named a Second-team All-Pro for his efforts. His 36 touchdown passes led all quarterbacks and was second in both EPA per play (0.245) and EPA+CPOE composite (0.164) behind Brock Purdy. Prescott also finished in the top-10 in several other key metrics and was the overall QB5 in fantasy points per game.

Prescott did a good job at limiting turnovers after tying Josh Allen with 15 interceptions in 2022, helping to lead the Cowboys to a 12-5 record and an appearance in the NFC Divisional round.

Another player searching for a new deal is CeeDee Lamb, who is currently set to play out this season on a fifth-year club option worth $17.991 million. Lamb ran wild on the league last season, catching a league-high 135 passes on 181 targets — also tops in the league — while finishing second in receiving yards (1,749) and touchdowns (12). Amongst receivers who saw 50 or more targets, Lamb also ranked fourth in TPRR (0.30) and team target share (29.2 percent) and was the first read on 145 of his targets per FantasyPoints.com — which ranked third highest.

An elite receiving option in every sense of the word, the Cowboys did not add a player of note who should threaten Lamb for targets in 2024. He remains a high-end option at receiver across all formats and has the profile to finish as the overall WR1 in fantasy this season.

Third-year tight end Jake Ferguson is arguably Lamb’s biggest threat, but the two co-existed nicely last season. In his first full season as a starter, Ferguson broke out for 71-761-5 and ran a route on 72.5 percent of the Cowboys’ dropbacks — good for 10th best amongst tight ends. There are some concerns that come with Ferguson this season, namely his 0.20 TPRR and 15.8 percent target share. Both numbers ranked outside the top-10 at the tight end position last season, with his TPRR ranking 15th alongside Dallas Goedert, Jonnu Smith, and Kyle Pitts. Despite these numbers, Ferguson still finished as the overall TE10 in fantasy points per game and finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end in 59 percent of his games played last season. In seven games, he scored 12 or more PPR points.

Ferguson should continue to benefit from playing with Prescott. Since 2020, Prescott has targeted tight ends on 19.6 percent of his pass attempts per PFF, which ranks 13th amongst 32 quarterbacks (minimum 1,000 pass attempts).

Veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks returns to the Cowboys for his second season with the team. Last year, Cooks caught 54 passes for 657 yards and eight touchdowns — his most since 2016. Far from the explosive playmaker he once was, Cooks provides the Cowboys with reliable hands on the outside but had a meager 0.16 TPRR — his lowest mark since 2019. After a slow start to the season in which he never scored more than 6.7 PPR points through the first five weeks, Cooks went on to finish as a top-24 PPR receiver in just 50 percent of his games from Weeks 6-18 and profiles as a WR3 with some weekly WR2 upside this season.

Third-year receiver Jalen Tolbert is expected to make a significant push for playing time in training camp and will face competition from second-year receiver Jalen Brooks and rookie Ryan Flournoy. Tolbert has caught 24 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns in his career and shouldn’t be counted on in seasonal leagues outside of best ball leagues, where he’s an intriguing late-round dart throw.

Running Game

RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Royce Freeman
OL (L-R): Tyler Guyton, Tyler Smith, Brock Hoffman, Zack Martin, Terence Steele

The current makeup of the Cowboys’ backfield seriously challenges the notion that the team is “all-in” to win this season. Gone is Tony Pollard, who signed with the Titans earlier this offseason, and back in the fold is Ezekiel Elliott, who will turn 29 at the end of July.

The Cowboys made the correct decision in cutting Elliott last offseason, allowing him to slog his way to 642 rushing yards and three touchdowns (3.8 YPC) with the Patriots. However, after a season in which their running backs had the fourth-lowest touchdown rate (25 percent) on rush attempts inside their opponents’ five-yard line, the Cowboys decided to reunite with Zeke in hopes of converting more scoring opportunities in the “green zone.”

Elliott ran the ultimate PPR scam during the second half of last season when he caught 38 passes in his last nine games — the second-most receptions of any running back over that span and three more catches than Christian McCaffrey. Fantasy managers chasing that production would be wise to reconsider, as the Cowboys’ offense has far more weapons in the passing game than the Patriots did last season.

When it comes to his efficiency (or lack thereof) on the ground, Elliott was about what we expected. In addition to averaging 3.8 YPC, Elliott ranked 41st amongst 49 running backs in RYOE per NFL Next Gen Stats and ranked 37th in rushing success rate at 45.1 percent. Elliott forced a missed tackle on just 12 percent of his attempts, which ranks 45th amongst 49 running backs (min. 100 carries) per FantasyPoints.com. Assuming he doesn’t repeat with another 50-catch campaign, it’s hard to get excited about what Zeke has to offer in 2024. With that said, the Cowboys have few options to consider behind him. If he secures the RB1 role out of camp, the volume, coupled with a valuable goal-line role, could prove enough to make Zeke a top-24 back in PPR leagues.

Last year’s RB2, Rico Dowdle, is expected to challenge Elliott for touches and could emerge as a value late in fantasy drafts. Far from a high-end back, it’s hard to argue against the idea of Dowdle being the best back on the Cowboys this season. Dowdle, 26, rushed for 89-361-2 last season (4.1 YPC) while adding 17 receptions for 144 yards and two scores. Dowdle averaged 4.8 yards per touch, proving to be little more than an average back when it came to evading tackles and creating yards after contact. He forced a missed tackle on just 15 percent of his carries and averaged 2.91 YCO/ATT.

Deuce Vaughn, who flashed at times last year in the preseason, could emerge as a darkhorse for touches in this underwhelming backfield, but the 5-foot-5, 176-pound back averaged just 1.7 YPC on 23 rush attempts and looked nothing like the player his most die-hard truthers touted him as all offseason. Vaughn doesn’t have the size to operate as a between-the-tackles grinder and is well off the fantasy radar at this time.

Win Totals

The fine folks at DraftKings Sportsbook have the current over/under win total for the Cowboys set at 10.5 wins. Double-digit wins feel within reach for a team coming off a 12-win season, and the Cowboys are also set to return several key players on both sides of the ball. With that said, defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who led a top-five unit last season, is now in Washington, and the Eagles remain a legitimate threat to win the NFC East. Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis ranks the Cowboys as having the 11th toughest schedule this season based on opponents’ projected Vegas win totals, which could make picking this over a risky proposition.