When Nate Oats landed in Tuscaloosa almost six years ago, he found a roster that was middling on talent, but had some high-ceiling coachable players who wanted to win. You need those John Pettys, of course. And no one really could foresee what Herb Jones would blossom into. But you also need star power in basketball. Even the best group of team-first average players typically falls short of cutting down the nets (quick: name a single player on Beard’s 2018-2019 Texas Tech starting roster. Bet you can’t without Google — and, nope, Nimari Burnett isn’t one of them).

Coach Oats was behind the eight-ball, but there was one intriguing undeclared player just up the road in Mountain Brook: All-everything, No. 1 recruit Trendon Watford. Now that is the type of transformative star power that the Tide needed. Unfortunately, Nate was also introduced in his first month to how things are done at some places in the SEC…particularly LSU. Will Wade, the Tigers’ criminally-corrupt, sweat hog with a pocketbook, had already bought and paid for Watford. And along the way, some bad blood was born. As a result, it was neither Tennessee nor Auburn that became Public Enemy No. 1 to the new ‘Bammer coach — it was the LSU Tigers.

Since that early spring day six years ago, there have been few (if any) teams Oats has loved punishing quite like LSU. He gets up for these games, and consequently, it should come as little surprise that it is the Coonass Kitties that he has enjoyed his most success against: 10-2 and counting, including a head-to-head title matchup.

Will Wade is gone. And in his place the far more likable, respectable Matt McMahon (nee Murray State) has arrived. But Nate only sees purple and gold. And when he sees purple and gold, he also sees red.

Guess who’s coming to dinner tonight, folks?

Indeed. GTFO.

Tale of the Tape: No. 68 LSU (12-6, 1-4) vs No. 4 Alabama (15-3, 5-1)

Spread: Alabama -17 (167.0)

Opponent KenPom: 68 (102 offense, 53 defense, 130 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 73 (96 offense, 61 defense, 90 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 79 (128 offense, 57 defense, 123 tempo)
Opponent NET: 69 (0-5 Q1); Q2 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI: 107
Opponent Best Win: vs Arkansas (54)
Opponent Worst Loss: SMU (51)

UA Ken Pom: 8th (2 Off, 45 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 5th (3 Off, 27 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 5th (2 Off, 37 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking: 7 (11-3 Q1/2)
UA RPI: 2
UA Best Win: No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: No. 23 (N) Oregon

We’ve seen quite a few types of systems so far this season, with most opponents preferring to let action unfold on the floor in today’s almost-positionless, backcourt-driven four- and five-out systems. We’ve seen hybrid eclectic motion from teams like Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. But, aside from the truly anal retentive Matt Painter and Buzz Williams types, Alabama rarely sees opponents so wedded to an offensive philosophy like the one Matt McMahon brings into Tuscaloosa tonight.

McMahon (another former guard-cum-coach), earned his national credibility as the skipper of those Murray State teams (and, yes, he was the coach when Alabama fans were treated to that outstanding Young Bull vs. Ja shootout in Coleman). At MSU, his Racers cultivated a well-earned reputation for exceptional offensive efficiency, albeit at a pace that is a bit more deliberative than you’d expect. In five of his six seasons, the Racers were in the Top Third nationally in floor shooting, effective field goal percent, and scoring. And while the league has changed, and the tempo is up a bit, expect no surprises tonight: LSU plays every bit the same scheme that MSU did.

LSU runs a pure motion offense, although it is not one that eschews the dribble (like Vandy or Ole Miss), rather it lets the point guard put the ball on the floor. Indeed, in this system, the trigger man has the green light to iso his defender and dart to the basket off the dribble. We’ll be using a few football similes today, because it makes the most sense. Think of the point guard dribble-drive as the keeper option on the RPO: if it’s there, and the LSU PG sees something he likes, he’s expected to take off to the basket for a higher percentage play.

But, more often than not, defenders won’t be so lax as to give up early possession lanes to the basket, and that is where the second part of this system comes into play: Like UNC, the Tigers will absolutely ball-screen you to death. Unlike other screen-dependent teams, however, LSU doesn’t run many pick-and-rolls, or high-screen looks. They don’t even run rolling three-man sets that follow ball movement (a la Vandy). Instead, it is pure motion, so at least three players are moving at almost all times, and the preferred way to do that is with cross-court screens (two guys moving across the baseline at the same time, while another man gets loose in traffic), or rub-and-replace screens (same concept, but from to the rim to the top of the key.)

Another tool in the screening arsenal is adding a fourth player to the mix for a butt-bump, which is exactly what it sounds like. Think of it like a hockey hip-check. Rather than getting set, and losing motion and momentum, the butt-bumper sticks that gyatt out and hip-checks his man: not enough for a moving pick, but certainly not a static face-up screen with the shoulder either. It’s borderline on every play so officials rarely call it.

Shot selection is the name of the game. And all of the three-and-four man screening motion frees up a variety of looks at the basket: from backside layups, to iso penetration, to open jumpers. And, as we saw with Vanderbilt, this deliberative style of constant screening means that the Tigers are not a tempo team, but they do move their offense at a decent pace — and certainly faster than what McMahon has traditionally relied on.

The final part of the offensive system, and one that he emphasizes constantly, is five-man offensive rebounding: hammer that glass to chase misses and score easy put-backs. Of course, the downside is that it opens up LSU to fast breaks the other way. But, he’s playing a percentage game: layups are going to be made more often than LSU will give up a breakout. There’s a reason that LSU is one of the better teams in the conference in offensive rebounding and among the nation’s best in two-point floor shooting (17th), despite not being a great overall field-goal shooting team. This is also why the three LSU starting guards average almost 40 points a night, and they all flirt with five boards-per. That’s a huge contribution near the rim for a backcourt-led system.

Here’s what it all looks like when it’s put together:

Despite aiming for efficiency, as we noted earlier, it’s not a great shooting offense (the worst perimeter scoring team in the SEC, in fact), so the Tigers reach into the defensive side of their toolkit. And it is here where LSU has enjoyed its most success: LSU is a hard team to really explode on if you get stuck playing the half-court game with them. The backcourt are very good defenders. Like Vanderbilt, they play a very aggressive face-up man-defense that contests passes, entries, and forces defenders to either beat them inside with crisp entry passes, beat them off the dribble, or beat them with contested perimeter shots. But, since LSU also doesn’t collapse to deny the middle a la A&M or Ole Miss, good passing can find open men for post scoring, and it also means that they are not a great defensive rebounding team.

The confluence of offensive and defensive play-style, with the lack of an impact big man, means that the Tigers have been beaten on the glass and break points and PitP in all five of their SEC contests — even their sole victory over Arkansas. There’s a reason this team is 1-4 in SEC play.

Key Personnel

LSU is a very deep team, comparatively speaking in this day and age: Nine Tigers see 15 or more minutes a night. But, that depth is almost all coming from the guards — seven of their nine top contributors are in the backcourt. If there is any true strength as a whole to this roster it is that they are an unselfish team of rebounders and ball distributors. They all move well without the ball. They all penetrate to the basket. They all pass up contested shots to find the open man. It’s team basketball. And though there is a star player, they all chip in.

For defensive purposes though, there’s one name to know and thus one player that has to be stopped: point guard Cam Carter. The 6’3” senior leads the Tigers in scoring (17.3 PPG), assists (4.4), 3PT shooting (40.7%), minutes, effective floor shooting — you name it. Outside of USC’s Collin Murray-Boyles, he’s the closest thing to a one-man wrecking crew ‘Bama has played this year (7th in SEC scoring, 2nd in FT shooting, 3rd in 3PT shooting). Nate Oats is “concerned” about Carter — particularly after the defensive slop Alabama sharted out in the second half versus Vandy — and he should be. Like Koby Brea, Carter is a game-changer.

The other guards are serviceable, and each does something to add to LSU’s success. In particular, take a look at second-leading scorer, Gardner-Webb transfer SG Jordan Sears. Sure, he’s got the points (15 per night). But as we have seen from a lot of low-major transfers, that has not translated to being a good shooter vs. major opponents. He’s getting his points on volume and living at the line. He’s a slippery 5’11”, but I suspect he’s actually a bit smaller than that. He’s not a good shooter — he’s a volume guy, but he still heaves them up and he’s second on the team in assists. But he’s got a sloppy handle (all of the Tigers do), and he also leads the team in TOs per night. Defensively, he’s the best player to exploit in the backcourt. Sears TO rate per-touch is appalling, and Alabama can have a lot of success when the ball is in his hands.

The front court has good size, with 6’10” PF Dji Bailey being the better scorer, and 6’10” Corey Chest being a limited offensive threat, but the better rim protector and rebounder.

Alabama will probably look to bottle up Carter. Though, as we have seen on many other nights, Nate Oats can live with the opponent’s star player having a great game so long as the supporting cast is kept in check. That means targeting players like Sears and minimizing the damage they do. In fact, I would expect that — the Tide’s bigs to win their share of battles in the paint, play solid assignment defense on the other starters, and dare Cam Carter to outscore Alabama single-handedly. A few teams have come close to pulling it off with this formula, but no one has nailed yet. This LSU team doesn’t seem equipped to do so either, especially not if Alabama is mindful on the defensive glass and takes away all of those cheap put-backs LSU lives and dies by.

How To Watch

Saturday 25 January, 7:30 CST, SEC Network

Prediction

LSU is 1-4 in SEC play, and all four of those losses were by double-digits. No real routs, but solid losses nonetheless. That said, it’s a team that is playing exactly where they should be given their roster and their stats — there’s a reason LSU is dead-even in expected win rate. On paper, it looks like a Top 50-60is, solid T2 team. And that’s what they’ve put out. They’ve not beaten a team above 51, but they’ve not lost to bad ones either. In short, it’s a squad that is playing exactly to its full potential. That also makes this one a bit easier to spitball (or should, at least).

Schematically, it’s just a bad matchup for the Tigers. The style of play they have on offense feeds into some real deficiencies on the other end that the Tide is uniquely situated to exploit: Tempo, perimeter blitzkrieg, fast breaks off turnovers, penetration to the glass. There’s a reason Alabama has dominated this series of late, and why McMahon has yet to beat the Tide.

So rarely in basketball do you see a game where scheme is outcome-determinative, but this is one: those stylistic mismatches, bad LSU floor shooting, too little firepower, and too many Tiger turnovers is how you get a thumping.

Predictive modeling: Alabama -17.2 to 21.8. Alabama is now also riding an 8-2 ATS streak since Christmas. No need to upend the apple cart when the data tell you not to.

Alabama 90
LSU 72

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.

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