Science
Rising Home Insurance Premiums Are Eating Into Home Values in Disaster-Prone Areas
This Louisiana resident expects to pay 45 percent more for home insurance this year.
Similar increases are hitting homeowners across the state, where insurance costs have exploded over the past four years.
It’s part of a rapid shift that’s sending tremors through real estate markets across the country.
Even after she escaped rising floodwaters by wading away from her home in chest-deep water during Hurricane Rita in 2005, Sandra Rojas, now 69, stayed put. A fifth-generation resident of Lafitte, La., a small coastal community, she raised her home with stilts.
But this year, her annual home insurance premium increased to $8,312, more than doubling over the past four years.
She considered selling, but found herself in a dilemma. As insurance costs have risen, area home values have fallen, dropping by 38 percent since 2020. The roadsides around her house are dotted with for-sale signs.
“They won’t insure you,” Ms. Rojas said. “No one will buy from you. You’re kind of stuck where you are.”
New research shared with The New York Times estimates the extent to which rising home insurance premiums, driven higher by climate change, are cascading into the broader real estate market and eating into home values in the most disaster-prone areas.
The study, which analyzed tens of millions of housing payments through 2024 to understand where insurance costs have risen most, offers first-of-its-kind insight into the way rising insurance rates are affecting home values.
Since 2018, a financial shock in the home insurance market has meant that homes in the ZIP codes most exposed to hurricanes and wildfires would sell for an average of $43,900 less than they would otherwise, the research found. They include coastal towns in Louisiana and low-lying areas in Florida.
Changes in an under-the-radar part of the insurance market, known as reinsurance, have helped to drive this trend. Insurance companies purchase reinsurance to help limit their exposure when a catastrophe hits. Over the past several years, global reinsurance companies have had what the researchers call a “climate epiphany” and have roughly doubled the rates they charge home insurance providers.
Benjamin Keys at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Philip Mulder of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the authors of the study, which was published this week, have called these swift changes “a reinsurance shock.” For some Americans, these changes have made it unaffordable to remain in homes they have lived in for decades.
“Homeowners don’t appreciate or don’t understand that we are living in a much riskier world than we were 25 years ago,” Dr. Keys said. “And that risk? They have to pay for it.”
After analyzing 74 million home payments — which included mortgage, taxes and insurance and were made between 2014 and 2024 — the researchers found that a rapid repricing of disaster risk had been responsible for about a fifth of overall home insurance increases since 2017. Another third could be explained by rising construction costs.
The researchers estimated the effects of the reinsurance shock on home prices in the ZIP codes most vulnerable to catastrophes. They found that rising insurance premiums weighed down home values by about $20,500 in the top 25 percent of homes most exposed to catastrophic hurricanes and wildfires, and by $43,900 in the top 10 percent.
Buying a home has long been seen as a way to lock in predictable housing costs. But the fast-increasing burden of insurance is catching some homeowners by surprise.
Last year, Ms. Rojas’s brother-in-law, who lived down the road in Lafitte, decided to sell his home to escape the area’s rising premiums. It sold for $150,000, which is what it cost him to build it in 1984. He estimated he lost about $75,000 on the sale, after accounting for the cost of renovations.
In parts of the hail-prone Midwestern states, insurance now eats up more than a fifth of the average homeowner’s total housing payments, which include mortgage costs and property taxes. In Orleans Parish, La., that number is nearly 30 percent.
A hundred miles north of Lafitte, the small city of Bogalusa, La., lies further inland. Nevertheless, Cristal Holmes saw her insurance premium more than quadruple in 2022, to $500 per month, on top of her $700 monthly mortgage.
Ms. Holmes, a single mother who was working 56 hours a week at a warehouse, struggled to keep up with the higher bills. She fell behind on mortgage payments after her work hours were reduced to 35 per week. She worried she couldn’t stay in her home.
Similar stories are playing out all over town. Ms. Holmes’s real estate agent, Charlotte Johnson, said her office was getting phone calls every day from people who said they could no longer afford their rising insurance premiums. For many, dropping insurance is not an option, because banks refuse to offer or maintain mortgages for people without coverage.
That means owners are being forced to choose between accepting home insurance policies they can’t afford or risking foreclosure.
Buyers face their own obstacles. High insurance prices and interest rates are making it harder than ever for first-time buyers to purchase homes, said Nancy Galofaro-Cruse, a senior loan officer with CMG Home Loans who works with many of Ms. Johnson’s clients. She estimated that more than a third of would-be buyers in the area backed out of the market this year after insurance and interest rates pushed their total monthly housing costs out of reach.
It’s not just the hurricane-prone coasts that have been affected by the reinsurance shock. In Colorado, where wildfires and hail pose the biggest threats to homes, the average homeowner’s premium has more than doubled in the last decade and median premiums have increased 74 percent since 2020.
Steve Hakes, an insurance broker with Rocky Mountain Insurance Center in Lafayette, Colo., has seen clients consider homes in wildfire-prone areas, only to back out when they can’t find affordable insurance. High prices and limited availability have pushed him to advise buyers to look for insurance early in the homebuying process.
And in California, 13 percent of real estate agents surveyed by an industry trade association said they’d had deals fall through in 2024 after buyers couldn’t find affordable insurance coverage.
Colorado regulators are aware of the threats these dynamics pose to the real estate market and are exploring a wide range of fixes, said Michael Conway, the Colorado insurance commissioner.
“We don’t want a situation where the insurance market is effectively decimating the real estate market,” he said.
As insurance becomes more expensive, home values will need to adjust for potential buyers to afford their monthly costs, industry analysts say. And if home values fall, lower property tax revenue could mean less money for local governments to pay for essential services or affect the ability of those governments to borrow money.
Clarence Guidry reached a breaking point this year when he got a quote to insure his home in Lafitte, La. He’d pay a $20,000 annual premium but if a hurricane struck, he’d be on the hook for the first $50,000 in damage before the insurance company would pay out.
His lender wouldn’t let Mr. Guidry, who goes by Rosco, keep his mortgage without home insurance. But keeping his home insured against damage from hurricanes would mean stomaching monthly payments that are at least 40 percent higher than the rest of his monthly mortgage and property taxes combined.
Over the last decade, as the number of wildfires and storms has mounted, losses have exceeded the revenue insurance companies receive from home insurance policies across the United States. In Louisiana, 12 companies, including Mr. Guidry’s insurer, became insolvent after a wave of hurricanes between 2021 and 2023. (Most private insurers do not cover flood damage, which is handled separately under a federal program.)
Insurance companies’ own costs have climbed in recent years for a variety of reasons, including higher construction costs, higher interest rates and President Trump’s tariff policies.
But the changes in the insurance market have begun to put a higher price on risk. Reinsurers have been driving these effects, Dr. Mulder said.
“These reinsurers are looking at a lot of the same data as insurers, but at a much bigger scale and with more sophistication,” he said.
Politicians, homeowners, economists, state insurance commissioners and real estate agents have long worried that insurance costs will rise so much that they will begin to pull down home values.
According to the study by Dr. Keys and Dr. Mulder, which was published as a working paper in the National Bureau of Economic Research, this is already happening in some areas.
Jesse Keenan, an associate professor of sustainable real estate and urban planning at Tulane University, said the direct evidence of this phenomenon remained limited and there were factors beyond insurance that affected local home prices.
But there are increasingly troubling signs in some markets, he said.
“The New Orleans housing market is exhibiting signs of failure that are imposing stress on the financial system around it,” he said.
Overall, U.S. home prices have risen about 55 percent since 2018, but New Orleans prices have increased by only 14 percent, less than the rate of inflation over the same time period.
Even in states where heavy regulations have kept costs down, there are signs that home insurers will continue to raise premiums to align more closely with disaster risk. New rules in California allow insurance companies to pass rising reinsurance costs on to consumers. One consumer advocacy group, citing the effects of similar changes in other states, has estimated this provision could raise net premiums significantly for homeowners.
Back in Lafitte, Mr. Guidry was running the numbers for his own budget. Against the advice of his financial adviser, he took money out of his retirement account to pay off his home loan. The plan now is to self-insure for wind and hail damage. That means he and his wife will have to pay out of pocket to repair their home if another severe storm hits.
In forgoing coverage, the Guidrys join some 13 percent of U.S. homeowners who are uninsured, according to Census Bureau data. Insurers continue to drop people in many areas.
“Now, we’ve got to take the gamble,” Mr. Guidry said.
Methodology
Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder calculated annual homeowners’ insurance costs by separating mortgage and tax payments from loan-level escrow data obtained from CoreLogic, a property and risk analytics firm. Households whose payments were captured by CoreLogic were not necessarily present in all years of data from 2014 to 2024.
The home insurance share of total home payments are based on mean values. Total home payments include insurance, property tax and mortgage principal and interest costs. Escrow payments typically do not include utilities, homeowners’ association fees.
Science
Owners of mobile home park destroyed in the Palisades fire say they’re finally clearing the debris
Former residents of the Palisades Bowl Mobile Home Estates, a roughly 170-unit mobile home park completely destroyed in the Palisades fire, received a notice Dec. 23 from park owners saying debris removal would start as early as Jan. 2.
The Bowl is the largest of only a handful of properties in the Palisades still littered with debris nearly a year after the fire. It’s left the Bowl’s former residents, who described the park as a “slice of paradise,” stuck in limbo.
The email notice, which was reviewed by The Times, instructed residents to remove any burnt cars from their lots as quickly as possible, since contractors cannot dispose of vehicles without possessing the title. It followed months of near silence from the owners.
“The day before Christmas Eve … it triggers everybody and throws everybody upside down,” said Jon Brown, who lived in the Bowl for 10 years and now helps lead the fight for the residents’ right to return home. “Am I liable if I can’t get this done right now? Between Christmas and New Year’s? It’s just the most obnoxious, disgusting behavior.”
Brown is not optimistic the owners will follow through. “They’ve said things like this before over the years with a bunch of different things,” he said, “and then they find some reason not to do it.”
Earlier this year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency denied requests from the city and the Bowl’s owners to include the park in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers cleanup program, which FEMA said was focused on residential lots, not commercial properties. In a letter, FEMA argued it could not trust the owners of the Bowl to preserve the beachfront property as affordable housing.
A tattered flag waves in the wind at Asilomar View Park overlooking the Pacific Palisades Bowl Mobile Estates.
(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)
The Bowl, which began as a Methodist camp in the 1890s, was purchased by Edward Biggs, a Northern California real estate mogul, in 2005 and split between his first and second wives after his death in 2021. The family has a history of failing to perform routine maintenance and seeking to redevelop the park into a more lucrative resort community.
After FEMA’s rejection, the owners failed to meet the City of L.A.’s debris removal deadlines. In October, the city’s Board of Building and Safety Commissioners declared the park a public nuisance alongside seven other properties, giving the city the authority to complete the debris removal itself and charge the owners the bill.
But the city has yet to find funds to front the work, which is expected to cost millions.
On Dec. 10, City Councilmember Traci Park filed a motion that would order the city to come up with a cost estimate for debris removal and identify funding sources within the city. It would also instruct the city attorney’s office to explore using criminal prosecution to address the uncleared properties.
The Department of Building and Safety did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Despite the recent movement on debris removal, residents of the Palisades Bowl still have a long road ahead.
On Wednesday, numerous burnt out vehicles still remained at the Pacific Palisades Bowl Mobile Estates. The owners instructed residents they must get them removed as quickly as possible.
(Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)
In mobile home parks, tenants lease their spaces from the landowners but own the homes placed on the land. Before residents can start rebuilding, the Bowl’s owners need to replace or repair the foundations for the homes; fix any damage to the roads, utilities and retaining walls; and rebuild facilities like the community center and pool.
The owners have not responded to multiple requests for comment, but in February, Colby Biggs, Edward Biggs’ grandson, told CalMatters that “If we have to go invest $100 million to rebuild the park and we’re not able to recoup that in some fashion, then it’s not likely we will rebuild the park.”
Mobile home law experts and many residents doubt that the Biggs family would be able to convert the rent-controlled mobile home park into something else under existing law. The most realistic option, should the Biggs decide against rebuilding, would be to sell the park to another owner — or directly to the residents, a course of action the residents have been actively pursuing.
The lack of communication and action from the owners has nonetheless left the Bowl’s eclectic former community of artists, teachers, surfers, first responders and retirees in limbo.
Many are running out of insurance money for temporary housing and remain unsure whether they’ll ever be able to move back.
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January 2, 2026
Science
Commentary: ‘Stop exercising, you’re killing yourself.’ Not really, but try more nurture, less torture in 2026
One day my left foot hurt for no good reason. I stood up to shake off the pain and tweaked my right Achilles tendon, so I headed for the medicine cabinet, bent over like an ape because of a stiff back.
Actually, I lied.
It wasn’t one day. It’s pretty much every day.
None of this is severe or serious, and I’m not complaining at the age of 72. I’m just wondering.
Are my exercise routines, which were meant to keep me from falling apart, slowing my demise, or accelerating it?
What better time than the start of a new year to get an answer? In one poll, the top New Year’s resolution for 2026 is exercising more. Also among the top six resolutions are eating healthier, improving physical health and losing weight, so good luck to all you dreamers, and I hope you last longer than I have with similar resolutions.
Instead of a resolution, I have a goal, which is to find a sweet spot — if there is one — between exercise and pain.
Maybe I’m asking too much. I’ve had two partial knee replacements, I’ve got a torn posterior cruciate ligament, a scar tissue knob on a frayed Achilles tendon, a hideously pronated left foot, a right shoulder that feels like it needs an oil change, and a pacemaker that keeps on ticking.
But I decided to get some expert advice that might be useful for anyone who has entered this glorious phase of life in which it’s possible to pull a muscle while taking a nap, or pinch a nerve in your neck while brushing your teeth.
And I knew just whom to call.
Cedars-Sinai orthopedic surgeon Robert Klapper hosts an ESPN radio show called “Weekend Warrior.” This lab-coated Renaissance man, a surfer and sculptor in his spare time, also weighs in regularly on the radio with “Klapper Vision” — clear-eyed takes on all manner of twisted, pulled and broken body parts suffered by elite athletes and banged-up buzzards like me.
On “Weekend Warrior,” Klapper might be talking about knee replacement surgery one minute, segue to Michelangelo’s rendering of the human form, and then insist that a sandwich is not a sandwich without peperoncini. It isn’t necessarily all connected, but it doesn’t matter.
When I emailed Klapper about my aches and pains, he responded immediately to say he’s written one book on hips, another on knees and a third one is in the works with the following title:
“Stop Exercising, You’re Killing Yourself.”
No, he’s not saying you should never get off the sofa. In a phone conversation and later at his office, Klapper said the subtitle is going to be, “Let Me Explain.” He’s making a point about what kind of exercise is harmful and what kind is helpful, particularly for people in my age group.
Dr. Robert Klapper holds up his book about preventing hip surgery.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
My daily routine, I told him, involves a two-mile morning walk with my dog followed by 30 minutes of swimming laps or riding a stationary bike.
So far, so good.
But I also play pickleball twice a week.
“Listen, I make a living from pickleball now,” Klapper said. “Exercise is wonderful, but it comes in two flavors.”
One is nurturing, which he calls “agercise” for my demographic.
The other is abusive, and one of Klapper’s examples is pickleball. With all its starts and stops, twists and turns, reaches and lunges, pickleball is busting the Medicare bank, with a few hundred million dollars’ worth of injuries each year.
I know. The game looks pretty low key, although it was recently banned in Carmel-by-the-Sea because of all the racket. I had no idea, when I first picked up a paddle, that there’d be so much ice and ibuprofen involved, not to mention the killer stares from retirees itching for a chance to drill you in the sternum with a hot laser.
“This is a sport which has the adrenaline rushing in every 50-year-old, 60-year-old, 80-year-old,” Klapper told me in his office, which is the starting point in his joint replacement factory. The walls are covered with photos of star athletes and A-list Hollywood celebrities he’s operated on.
“I see these patients, but they’re not coming to me with acute injuries. They didn’t snap their Achilles tendon … like they do in tennis. They’re not snapping their ACL like they are in pickup basketball,” Klapper said. “They’re coming to me saying, ‘My shoulder is killing me, my knee is killing me.’ ”
Pickleball has obvious conditioning benefits for every age group. But it can also worsen arthritis and accelerate joint degeneration, Klapper said, particularly for addicts who play several times a week.
Not that he’s the first MD to suggest that as you age, walking, cycling and swimming are easier on your body than higher-impact activities. As one doctor said in an AARP article on joint care and the benefits of healthy eating, watching your weight and staying active, “the worst thing you can do with osteoarthritis after 50 is be sedentary.”
Still, I thought Klapper might tell me to stop pickling, but he didn’t.
“Pickleball is more than a sport to you … and all of your compadres,” he said. “It’s mental. You need it because of the stress. The world’s falling apart.… I want you to play it, but I want you to do the nurturing exercises so you can do the abuse.”
There’s no fountain of youth, Klapper said, but the closest thing is a swimming pool.
OK, but I already swim three times a week.
Dr. Robert Klapper meets with patient Kathleen Clark, who is recovering from knee surgery.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
Klapper had different ideas.
“You need to be walking forward and backwards for half an hour,” he said. Do that three times a week, he told me, and ride a stationary bike three times.
Why the water walking?
“We as humans take over a million steps a year. Forget pickleball, just in … daily living,” Klapper said, so I’m well beyond 72 million steps.
“Think about that,” he said.
Do I have to?
Water walking will develop muscles and joints without the stress of my full weight, and that could “optimize” my pickleball durability and general fitness, Klapper said. Buoyancy and the touch of water on skin are magic, he said, but there’s science involved too.
“It’s hard to move your arms and legs and your body through water, and yet it’s unloading the joint,” Klapper said. “And finally — and this is the real X factor — when you close your eyes and straighten your elbow and bend your elbow, straighten your knee and bend your knee … your brain knows where your limbs are in space.”
This is called proprioception, Klapper said. Receptors in your skin, muscles, ligaments and tendons send messages to your brain, leading to better balance, coordination and agility and potentially reducing risk of injury.
There are lots of exercises for sharpening proprioception, but the surfing doctor is partial to bodies of water. At my age, he said, my proprioception “batteries are running low,” but I can recharge them with a short break from pickleball and a focus on the pool.
“You can’t guarantee anything in life and medicine,” Klapper said. “But I guarantee you, a month into it, you’re going to feel so much better than you do at this moment.”
It’s worth a try, and I’ll let you know how it goes.
In the pool and on the court.
steve.lopez@latimes.com
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