Science
Rising Home Insurance Premiums Are Eating Into Home Values in Disaster-Prone Areas
This Louisiana resident expects to pay 45 percent more for home insurance this year.
Similar increases are hitting homeowners across the state, where insurance costs have exploded over the past four years.
It’s part of a rapid shift that’s sending tremors through real estate markets across the country.
Even after she escaped rising floodwaters by wading away from her home in chest-deep water during Hurricane Rita in 2005, Sandra Rojas, now 69, stayed put. A fifth-generation resident of Lafitte, La., a small coastal community, she raised her home with stilts.
But this year, her annual home insurance premium increased to $8,312, more than doubling over the past four years.
She considered selling, but found herself in a dilemma. As insurance costs have risen, area home values have fallen, dropping by 38 percent since 2020. The roadsides around her house are dotted with for-sale signs.
“They won’t insure you,” Ms. Rojas said. “No one will buy from you. You’re kind of stuck where you are.”
New research shared with The New York Times estimates the extent to which rising home insurance premiums, driven higher by climate change, are cascading into the broader real estate market and eating into home values in the most disaster-prone areas.
The study, which analyzed tens of millions of housing payments through 2024 to understand where insurance costs have risen most, offers first-of-its-kind insight into the way rising insurance rates are affecting home values.
Since 2018, a financial shock in the home insurance market has meant that homes in the ZIP codes most exposed to hurricanes and wildfires would sell for an average of $43,900 less than they would otherwise, the research found. They include coastal towns in Louisiana and low-lying areas in Florida.
Changes in an under-the-radar part of the insurance market, known as reinsurance, have helped to drive this trend. Insurance companies purchase reinsurance to help limit their exposure when a catastrophe hits. Over the past several years, global reinsurance companies have had what the researchers call a “climate epiphany” and have roughly doubled the rates they charge home insurance providers.
Benjamin Keys at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Philip Mulder of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the authors of the study, which was published this week, have called these swift changes “a reinsurance shock.” For some Americans, these changes have made it unaffordable to remain in homes they have lived in for decades.
“Homeowners don’t appreciate or don’t understand that we are living in a much riskier world than we were 25 years ago,” Dr. Keys said. “And that risk? They have to pay for it.”
After analyzing 74 million home payments — which included mortgage, taxes and insurance and were made between 2014 and 2024 — the researchers found that a rapid repricing of disaster risk had been responsible for about a fifth of overall home insurance increases since 2017. Another third could be explained by rising construction costs.
The researchers estimated the effects of the reinsurance shock on home prices in the ZIP codes most vulnerable to catastrophes. They found that rising insurance premiums weighed down home values by about $20,500 in the top 25 percent of homes most exposed to catastrophic hurricanes and wildfires, and by $43,900 in the top 10 percent.
Buying a home has long been seen as a way to lock in predictable housing costs. But the fast-increasing burden of insurance is catching some homeowners by surprise.
Last year, Ms. Rojas’s brother-in-law, who lived down the road in Lafitte, decided to sell his home to escape the area’s rising premiums. It sold for $150,000, which is what it cost him to build it in 1984. He estimated he lost about $75,000 on the sale, after accounting for the cost of renovations.
In parts of the hail-prone Midwestern states, insurance now eats up more than a fifth of the average homeowner’s total housing payments, which include mortgage costs and property taxes. In Orleans Parish, La., that number is nearly 30 percent.
A hundred miles north of Lafitte, the small city of Bogalusa, La., lies further inland. Nevertheless, Cristal Holmes saw her insurance premium more than quadruple in 2022, to $500 per month, on top of her $700 monthly mortgage.
Ms. Holmes, a single mother who was working 56 hours a week at a warehouse, struggled to keep up with the higher bills. She fell behind on mortgage payments after her work hours were reduced to 35 per week. She worried she couldn’t stay in her home.
Similar stories are playing out all over town. Ms. Holmes’s real estate agent, Charlotte Johnson, said her office was getting phone calls every day from people who said they could no longer afford their rising insurance premiums. For many, dropping insurance is not an option, because banks refuse to offer or maintain mortgages for people without coverage.
That means owners are being forced to choose between accepting home insurance policies they can’t afford or risking foreclosure.
Buyers face their own obstacles. High insurance prices and interest rates are making it harder than ever for first-time buyers to purchase homes, said Nancy Galofaro-Cruse, a senior loan officer with CMG Home Loans who works with many of Ms. Johnson’s clients. She estimated that more than a third of would-be buyers in the area backed out of the market this year after insurance and interest rates pushed their total monthly housing costs out of reach.
It’s not just the hurricane-prone coasts that have been affected by the reinsurance shock. In Colorado, where wildfires and hail pose the biggest threats to homes, the average homeowner’s premium has more than doubled in the last decade and median premiums have increased 74 percent since 2020.
Steve Hakes, an insurance broker with Rocky Mountain Insurance Center in Lafayette, Colo., has seen clients consider homes in wildfire-prone areas, only to back out when they can’t find affordable insurance. High prices and limited availability have pushed him to advise buyers to look for insurance early in the homebuying process.
And in California, 13 percent of real estate agents surveyed by an industry trade association said they’d had deals fall through in 2024 after buyers couldn’t find affordable insurance coverage.
Colorado regulators are aware of the threats these dynamics pose to the real estate market and are exploring a wide range of fixes, said Michael Conway, the Colorado insurance commissioner.
“We don’t want a situation where the insurance market is effectively decimating the real estate market,” he said.
As insurance becomes more expensive, home values will need to adjust for potential buyers to afford their monthly costs, industry analysts say. And if home values fall, lower property tax revenue could mean less money for local governments to pay for essential services or affect the ability of those governments to borrow money.
Clarence Guidry reached a breaking point this year when he got a quote to insure his home in Lafitte, La. He’d pay a $20,000 annual premium but if a hurricane struck, he’d be on the hook for the first $50,000 in damage before the insurance company would pay out.
His lender wouldn’t let Mr. Guidry, who goes by Rosco, keep his mortgage without home insurance. But keeping his home insured against damage from hurricanes would mean stomaching monthly payments that are at least 40 percent higher than the rest of his monthly mortgage and property taxes combined.
Over the last decade, as the number of wildfires and storms has mounted, losses have exceeded the revenue insurance companies receive from home insurance policies across the United States. In Louisiana, 12 companies, including Mr. Guidry’s insurer, became insolvent after a wave of hurricanes between 2021 and 2023. (Most private insurers do not cover flood damage, which is handled separately under a federal program.)
Insurance companies’ own costs have climbed in recent years for a variety of reasons, including higher construction costs, higher interest rates and President Trump’s tariff policies.
But the changes in the insurance market have begun to put a higher price on risk. Reinsurers have been driving these effects, Dr. Mulder said.
“These reinsurers are looking at a lot of the same data as insurers, but at a much bigger scale and with more sophistication,” he said.
Politicians, homeowners, economists, state insurance commissioners and real estate agents have long worried that insurance costs will rise so much that they will begin to pull down home values.
According to the study by Dr. Keys and Dr. Mulder, which was published as a working paper in the National Bureau of Economic Research, this is already happening in some areas.
Jesse Keenan, an associate professor of sustainable real estate and urban planning at Tulane University, said the direct evidence of this phenomenon remained limited and there were factors beyond insurance that affected local home prices.
But there are increasingly troubling signs in some markets, he said.
“The New Orleans housing market is exhibiting signs of failure that are imposing stress on the financial system around it,” he said.
Overall, U.S. home prices have risen about 55 percent since 2018, but New Orleans prices have increased by only 14 percent, less than the rate of inflation over the same time period.
Even in states where heavy regulations have kept costs down, there are signs that home insurers will continue to raise premiums to align more closely with disaster risk. New rules in California allow insurance companies to pass rising reinsurance costs on to consumers. One consumer advocacy group, citing the effects of similar changes in other states, has estimated this provision could raise net premiums significantly for homeowners.
Back in Lafitte, Mr. Guidry was running the numbers for his own budget. Against the advice of his financial adviser, he took money out of his retirement account to pay off his home loan. The plan now is to self-insure for wind and hail damage. That means he and his wife will have to pay out of pocket to repair their home if another severe storm hits.
In forgoing coverage, the Guidrys join some 13 percent of U.S. homeowners who are uninsured, according to Census Bureau data. Insurers continue to drop people in many areas.
“Now, we’ve got to take the gamble,” Mr. Guidry said.
Methodology
Benjamin Keys and Philip Mulder calculated annual homeowners’ insurance costs by separating mortgage and tax payments from loan-level escrow data obtained from CoreLogic, a property and risk analytics firm. Households whose payments were captured by CoreLogic were not necessarily present in all years of data from 2014 to 2024.
The home insurance share of total home payments are based on mean values. Total home payments include insurance, property tax and mortgage principal and interest costs. Escrow payments typically do not include utilities, homeowners’ association fees.
Science
As mosquitoes go year-round in L.A., a promising fix hits a snag
Residents were supposed to get a respite from the ankle-nipping mosquitoes that fueled a recent surge in dengue fever in Los Angeles County.
Typically, the invasive mosquitoes — called Aedes aegypti — essentially disappear from winter until early May in the region.
Instead, complaints to local agencies tasked with controlling the pests spiked recently.
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“We have not seen them go away altogether like they have in previous years,” said Susanne Kluh, general manager for the Greater Los Angeles County Vector Control District.
Their unusual presence adds to the urgency of work going on in a 40-foot shipping container tucked away in Pacoima. It’s about to transform into a bustling nursery for tens of thousands of mosquitoes.
This May, the district is set for the third year in a row to release legions of sterilized male mosquitoes — which don’t bite — into parts of Sunland-Tujunga.
The last two years were promising, with the female population in two treated neighborhoods plunging by an average of more than 80%.
Yet business owners have signaled they’re not willing to pay to expand it.
That’s thrown uncertainty into officials’ goal of eventually bringing the approach to their whole service area, spanning 36 cities and unincorporated communities.
Steve Vetrone, assistant general manager at the Greater L.A. district.
(Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)
“Unfortunately, that’s going to be a rather expensive endeavor,” said Steve Vetrone, an assistant general manager for the district. “I can tell you right now that’s not something that we can do with our current operating budget.”
A need, an ask and a disappointing answer
Aedes aegypti are a new-ish local fixture. Native to Africa, the black-and-white striped mosquitoes were first detected in California in 2013 and landed in L.A. County the following year.
“Despite our best efforts, they’ve been able to just outpace us, and they’re now in every city and community within our district,” and all of Southern California, Vetrone said. In fact, the low-flying, day-biting mosquitoes are present in nearly half of California’s counties, including Shasta in the far north.
Desperate to find a solution, many are trying the so-called sterile insect technique — including vector control districts serving Orange and San Bernardino counties, as well as the San Gabriel Valley — and “we kind of all hope that this is going to be our silver bullet,” Kluh said.
The idea is fairly simple: unleash sterile males so that they far outnumber wild ones — say, 10 to 1 or even 100 to 1. The goal is for the altered males to mate with females, producing eggs that don’t hatch.
Kluh’s district uses X-rays to sterilize males but there are other methods, such as using genetically modified insects or ones infected with bacteria.
Female mosquitoes are fed different types of blood — pig and cow — to see which leads to the most eggs.
(Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)
The technique, while promising, requires time and money.
In California, property owners foot the bill for local mosquito (and other pest) control, with some paying an annual fee called a benefit assessment.
Levying a new fee requires approval from home, apartment and business owners, in accordance with Proposition 218.
To unleash sterile male mosquitoes in a broader swath of the Greater L.A. district, officials are seeking up to $20 a year per single family home. That would be on top of $18.97 that homeowners now pay for the agency’s services.
Last April, the district sent out 50,000 sample ballots to property owners, asking if they’d support the increase.
Only 47% of those returned were in favor.
“Data showed that single family homeowners were pretty supportive, but fewer business owners with larger parcels and potentially higher dues did not see the benefit in the additional expense,” Kluh said in an email.
Business owners might not live in the area, but their vote — if their property spans several acres — is weighted more heavily.
Times readers, commenting on a story from last year about the proposal, responded favorably.
“I hate mosquitos because they love me so much,” one reader said. “I would happily spend $20 to reduce their populations! I probably spend more [than] that on repellent.”
Officials haven’t given up, and plan to send out another round of sample ballots next year.
Kluh already has talking points for businesses in her back pocket: Restaurant owners should have an interest in making outdoor dining more pleasant, while apartment owners could lose revenue if their renters are sickened by an outbreak of Zika, chikungunya or yellow fever — all diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti, she said.
Making mosquitoes that can’t reproduce
On a recent tour of the Pacoima insectary, Nicolas Tremblay, a senior vector ecologist with the district, whipped out a small container filled with a handful of what looked like vitamins.
But the clear pill cases were filled with about 6,500 mosquito eggs and bovine liver powder.
Nicolas Tremblay, senior vector ecologist, tapes trays to indicate pill capsules filled with mosquito eggs were placed in water.
(Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)
The pills are dropped into trays of water, where the eggs hatch and the larvae feed on the powder. It takes about nine days to go from egg to buzzing adult.
The males are then chauffeured to Garden Grove, where they’re zapped with X-rays. Then they’re driven back and set free the next day.
“It’s crazier around August, September, is when we’ll probably reach our peak production” of up to 72,000 mosquitoes a week, he said. “All these [trays] would be full of water and mosquitoes.”
In 2024, the district launched its pilot, releasing nearly 600,000 sterilized males in two Sunland-Tujunga neighborhoods over about five months.
The population of Aedes aegypti females dropped by an average of 82% compared with a control area.
The stakes became clear that year, when California reported 18 locally acquired dengue cases — a sharp rise from the first-ever cases confirmed the year before.
Last year, the pilot saw similar success, though there was also a natural drop in activity districtwide.
On the recent visit to the insectary, several hundred mosquitoes flew around in white mesh cages, serving as participants in a study to see which blood they prefer — pig or cow.
“We haven’t completed the trials yet, but it seems like they didn’t care,” he said.
One thing scientists already know: Aedes aegypti love biting people.
A highly adaptive foe
The invasive mosquitoes can lay their eggs in tiny amounts of water. A bottle cap or crease in a potato chip bag is fair game.
What’s more, mosquitoes in the Greater L.A. district are resistant to a lot of pesticides.
Now, there might be a new concern. Typically, the invasive mosquitoes go into a type of hibernation every year.
Kluh said it appeared that they may have mutated in a way that allows them to stay active through the winter.
A warming climate has already expanded their season and allowed them to move into formerly inhospitable regions.
Releasing sterilized males involves no pesticides, and also leverages the insect’s biology: Males in lust are adept at finding females.
Many residents are thrilled by the promising tool, but others bristle at the idea of manipulating nature.
“There’s folks that are in favor and then there are folks that are just absolutely opposed because it’s like, ‘You’re playing God,’” Vetrone said.
Science
Record Heat Meets a Major Snow Drought Across the West
At this point in a typical year, as the seasons officially turn from winter to spring, snowpack would still be accumulating across the Mountain West.
But this winter wasn’t typical, even before a heat wave this past week. It was the warmest on record for six Western states. Snow cover is the lowest level on record for the Colorado River Basin, and across much of the rest of the West, there are record or near-record low amounts of snow.
That alone would create a challenging year for water managers, who rely on slow and steady snowmelt to feed streams, rivers and reservoirs and meet spring and summer demand for irrigation and drinking water. While rainfall runs off quickly and can more readily evaporate from soil, snowpack serves as a valuable and lasting source of moisture and accounts for a majority of water supplies across the region, as much as 80 percent in some areas.
Current snowpack compared to historical averages
The intense heat wave threatens to make water management all the more challenging.
Much of the thin snowpack was already “ready to melt” before the heat set in, said Jon Meyer, assistant state climatologist at the Utah Climate Center. “This is the nail in the coffin.”
It’s unusual to see the whole West like this, said Leanne Lestak, an associate senior scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder who specializes in mapping snow and how much water it holds.
In early March, Ms. Lestak and her team found that vast majority of the Western United States had less than two-thirds of the amount of snow typical for this time of year, with few exceptions. In Arizona and parts of Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon, snowpack was less than a quarter of what it would usually be.
“The situation is pretty dire,” Dr. Meyer said.
The heat wave is also increasing the already-elevated fire risk across some drought-stricken areas. In Nebraska, drought set the stage for the largest wildfire in state history, which broke out last week and has not yet been contained.
The conditions that led to this year’s low snowpack are unusual, too. Snow droughts often develop from dry weather patterns that starve the West of any significant precipitation during the winter, said Dan McEvoy, a climatologist at the Desert Research Institute and Western Regional Climate Center.
But in many places, it wasn’t necessarily a dry year, he said. Instead, temperatures have been so warm that precipitation has fallen as rain, rather than snow, even at higher elevations.
Many of the mountaintops could still see some more snowfall. But as Cody Moser, a hydrologist with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center in Salt Lake City, looks ahead to predicting how the spring will go, he doesn’t foresee any significant change in weather patterns. Now he’s expecting peak snowmelt flows to occur earlier than ever recorded in many locations, he said this week.
“I think it’s highly likely we’ve seen peak snowpack,” Mr. Moser said.
Snowpack feeding the Colorado River reaches historic lows
Even after a winter that was the warmest on record for Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Oregon, the heat that set in across much of the West this past week was extreme. Meteorologists said they were expecting to set record highs for the month of March in many locations, and the earliest arrivals of 100-degree temperatures in records that go back more than a century.
Across the Colorado River Basin, even at elevations as high as 10,000 feet, temperatures were forecast to surge into the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit on Friday and Saturday, Mr. Moser said, some 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average.
Relatively light winds and dry air over the region could limit snowmelt to some degree, he said, but the warmth and sunshine may prevent some moisture from ever reaching stream beds, said John Fleck, a water policy expert at the University of New Mexico.
“A lot of it is going to evaporate off before it even has a chance to hit the stream,” Mr. Fleck said.
This heat wave is so extreme that it would only be expected to occur once about every 500 years in the current climate, according to World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists who study links between extreme weather events and climate change.
“These temperatures are completely off the scale for March, and our data shows that they would be virtually impossible in a world without human-caused climate change,” said Ben Clarke, a research associate in extreme weather and climate change at Imperial College London.
In places like the Colorado Front Range, home to the majority of that state’s population, snowpack serves as the largest source of water. For the utility Denver Water, snowpack usually contains significantly more water than its largest surface reservoir, said Taylor Winchell, the agency’s climate adaptation program lead.
Denver Water has enough supply to handle a low-water year, but the snowpack conditions are creating “very high levels of concern,” Mr. Winchell said. The Denver Water Board is poised to officially declare Stage One drought restrictions, asking residents to significantly reduce their outdoor watering. If the snow drought were to repeat for multiple years, the problem could compound and worsen, he said.
The snow drought occurs at a critical time for the larger Colorado River Basin. An agreement among the basin’s seven states over how to divide its water expired at the end of last year, and negotiations to develop a new water plan fell apart last month. (The states are also obligated to share a small portion of the water with Mexico.)
The snow drought is complicating that work. Snowpack from the river’s Upper Basin, across mountains of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming, accounts for a majority of the river’s natural flow each year. Declining spring precipitation and rising temperatures have caused the Colorado’s flow to decrease by nearly 20 percent over the past quarter century.
Recent forecasts estimated that inflows to Lake Powell, a key reservoir that straddles the Utah-Arizona border, will be the third-smallest on record. The lake’s surface could drop to a critical level for hydroelectric power production by the end of this year, affecting a power grid that serves seven states.
Officials at the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees the Colorado River and its reservoirs, declined to be interviewed but said in a statement they were monitoring hydrologic conditions to guide decisions about how to manage the Colorado River system.
Mr. Fleck said a crisis without precedent could be brewing. While a drought that hit the basin in 2002 was worse, it was relatively more manageable than what the West now faces: “We’re having one of the worst years in many decades, but with no cushion of reservoir storage to fall back on to bail us out.”
Science
New report on L.A. post-fire beach contamination finds something unexpected: good news
Researchers investigating the long-term effects of the 2025 firestorms on L.A.’s beaches have found that rarest of things: good news.
In the year following the Palisades and Eaton fires, levels of harmful metals like lead in coastal sand and seawater have remained far below California’s limits for safe drinking water and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s safety thresholds for aquatic life.
“We’re not seeing any evidence for harm in the ecosystem or harm for human health,” said Noelle Held, a University of Southern California marine biogeochemist and principal investigator for the CLEAN Waters project, which is measuring post-fire water quality.
The Palisades and Eaton fires burned more than 40,000 acres and destroyed at least 12,000 buildings, blanketing the ocean in ash for up to 100 miles offshore. Heavy rains a few weeks later washed the charred remnants of plastics, batteries, cars, chemicals and other potentially toxic material into the sea and up onto beaches via the region’s massive network of storm drains and concrete-lined rivers.
Initial testing by the nonprofit environmental group Heal the Bay in the weeks after the fires documented a spike in lead, mercury and other heavy metals in coastal waters. Concentrations of beryllium, copper, chromium, nickel and lead in particular were significantly above established safety thresholds for marine life, prompting fears for the long-term health of fish, marine mammals and the marine food chain.
For their most recent study, Held’s team analyzed seawater samples collected along multiple locations on five different dates between Feb. 10 and Oct. 17 in 2025, along with sand collected in August.
Seawater lead concentrations were highest in the month after the fire and in October, when the season’s first major rain had just washed months’ worth of urban pollution into the ocean.
Even at their peak, lead levels barely surpassed 1 microgram per liter — well below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s aquatic life safety threshold of 8.1 micrograms per liter.
While levels of iron, manganese and cobalt were higher in sampling locations near the Palisades burn scar than they were in other areas, even there they remain well below concentrations that could pose harm to human or marine life.
For beach sand collected in August, lead levels never topped 14 parts per million at any location, significantly below both the current California residential soil standard of 80 parts per million and the stricter 55 parts per million standard proposed by environmental health researchers.
“This isn’t something we would flag if we were testing your soil in your yard,” Held said.
The recent findings are consistent with water quality tests the State Water Resources Control Board conducted earlier in 2025. A board spokesperson said those found both higher relative concentrations of metals closest to the burn scars and no overall evidence that post-fire pollution poses an ongoing threat to human health.
Yet the need for continued testing remains. Officials struggled to answer questions about post-fire beach safety in part because of a lack of historical data on pollution levels, a pitfall researchers would like to forestall before another disaster arrives.
Future rainstorms could also continue to wash metals into Will Rogers Beach and the Rustic Creek outfall, both of which are near the Palisades burn scar, CLEAN Waters warned.
“Post-fire impacts can change over time, depending on rainfalls, runoffs and sediment movements,” said Eugenia Ermacora, manager of the nonprofit Surfrider Foundation’s L.A. chapter, which has partnered with Held’s team to collect samples. “It’s not just about the fires, but it’s about urbanization and how much our city needs to continue the work of doing testing in the water.”
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