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Why California's surge in immigration is lifting our economy

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Why California's surge in immigration is lifting our economy

Kamala Harris had no sooner replaced Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee than Donald Trump began bashing her over the number of immigrants coming into the United States, declaring that they had driven countless American workers from their jobs.

But the data on U.S. employment and the economy overwhelmingly suggest a reality far more beneficial when it comes to immigration than the nightmarish vision the former president has put forth.

The surge of international migrants since 2021 — including refugees, asylum seekers and others entering legally and illegally — has lifted the U.S. and California economies by filling otherwise vacant jobs, helping to keep job creation strong, growing businesses and pumping millions of tax dollars into state, local and federal coffers.

Payroll taxes on immigrant workers have even helped relieve pressure on the nation’s embattled Social Security system.

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There are, of course, short-term public costs associated with acclimating so many new arrivals, plus government expenditures on education and health services for immigrants and their families, along with the political and social challenges. Many agree the current immigration system is flawed and chaotic.

But from a budgetary perspective, the additional federal spending on immigrants is projected to pale next to the increase in revenues from the millions more people working, paying taxes and buying goods and services, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

And more than a few economists say that, by easing the shortage of American workers as the U.S. population grows older and birth rates decline — particularly in California — immigrants have played a large and positive role in maintaining a healthy, growing economy.

“This is the hottest labor market that has existed in two generations,” said Michael Clemens, an economist at George Mason University who specializes in international migration. “That means there have never been as many opportunities for immigrants and natives to mutually benefit each other through economic interaction in the last half century.”

Without immigration, California’s workforce would have fallen well short of its needs, especially since the high cost of living, soaring home prices and other factors have fueled a notable outflow of population from the state.

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From 2021 to 2023, the population of U.S. citizens 16 years and older living in California fell by 625,000, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, while employment increased by 725,000.

Over that period, however, the unemployment rates for native-born and foreign-born Californians fell by similar levels — an indication that immigrants are not taking away American jobs.

Moreover, the recent waves of migrants are filling lower-paying, more physically demanding positions that do not attract as many native-born Americans, at least not at the wages that are offered.

An important source of labor

“Immigrants are a really important source of the labor force for California, in the high end as well as in a lot of jobs that don’t pay as well,” said Hans Johnson, a demographer at the Public Policy Institute of California.

Separate employers’ data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that more than 70% of the nearly 400,000 payroll jobs added in California between June 2022 and June 2024 have been in just two industries: social assistance, such as health services for the elderly and child care; and leisure and hospitality, primarily hotels and restaurants.

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Both sectors are heavily dependent on immigrant workers.

Employers in construction, another industry reliant on immigrant labor, also added thousands of jobs in that period.

“A lot of what we do is physical — you get on your knees. And Americans don’t do that,” said Tom Straus, owner of Straus Carpets. He’s been in the flooring business in the Bay Area for almost half a century and has regularly hired Latino immigrants. “The work is excellent and strenuous,” he said.

Angie, 28, and her husband and their 6-year-old arrived in Los Angeles last October from a village in Ocaña, Colombia, about 375 miles north of Bogotá. They flew from Bogotá to Cancún, Mexico, and from there to Tijuana. Then the family walked across the border checkpoint into San Diego, receiving provisional entry as migrants seeking asylum.

“It was expensive,” Angie said of the travel costs, money they borrowed from relatives. Given her uncertain status, she didn’t want to provide her last name.

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At the border, Angie got a “notice to appear” at immigration court in May 2025, and she can stay in the U.S. legally until at least then. But migrants have to wait 150 days after they formally apply for asylum before they can receive employment authorization.

Angie began working almost immediately upon arrival, first at a clothing business. More recently she found work in housekeeping at a hotel in Los Angeles. Her husband works remodeling houses.

“I feel like I’ve been blessed greatly,” she said.

Angie and her family were among some 3.3 million immigrants who arrived in the U.S. last year, after net immigration of 2.6 million in 2022, according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office. Those numbers are roughly triple the annual average in the prior decade. A similarly large number is expected this year, although immigration over the long haul is likely to return to around 1 million a year, experts say.

No one knows how many immigrants who arrive in California decide to stay here. Over the years, increasing opportunities in other states and California’s high cost of living have made it less attractive as a final destination. The latest Census Bureau figures, for 2022, show that 27% of California residents are foreign-born, about double the U.S. share.

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Most of the immigration increase in recent years has been driven by foreign nationals entering illegally, asylum seekers and hundreds of thousands of people from Ukraine, Venezuela, Haiti and other countries who entered under humanitarian programs and can apply for work authorization.

Since 2021, U.S. border patrol officers have seen a surge of migrants from Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru — but also from countries such as China and India, whose citizens in the past had rarely sought to come through the southwest border, Department of Homeland Security statistics show.

Over the last few years, about 6 in 10 people crossing unlawfully have been turned away, according to an analysis of DHS data by Clemens, the George Mason professor. Most of those who are detained and not expelled are released in the U.S., many because they have shown credible evidence of fear and a desire to apply for asylum.

Then there’s a whole other large group of people who enter unlawfully and are never encountered by border patrol.

What’s behind the surge at the border?

These migrants are part of an unprecedented international movement of people to the U.S. and other rich countries. While some are fleeing political and economic crises, the relocation is actually less a result of bad conditions at home than of successful development — which brings better health, greater awareness of international options and more income for travel. That allows people to pursue opportunities for better lives in the more prosperous countries such as the U.S., experts say.

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And technological advancements in many parts of the world have made the journeys more possible. Mobile phones and social media give almost anyone anywhere the basic information needed to migrate.

In his recent trip to southern China researching international migration, UCLA professor Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda met with people in Yunan province who were preparing to immigrate to the U.S. by entering through Tijuana.

“They saw it on TikTok, how to do it,” Hinojosa-Ojeda said.

The primary magnet attracting record numbers to the U.S. is jobs. Though unemployment has edged up recently as a result of government efforts to curb inflation, there are still 10 job openings for every eight unemployed workers in the U.S., according to government data. For most of the last 2½ years the U.S. jobless rate has been at or just above 3.5%, the lowest since the late 1960s.

Although the labor market isn’t as tight in California, at 5.2% in June, the unemployment rate isn’t far off historical lows for the state. And employers are still adding thousands of jobs a month, with some positions going to workers without legal status.

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“They’re getting a worker. The only downside is if they get in trouble for it — and that doesn’t often happen,” said Jamie Wipf, operations manager at the International Institute of Los Angeles, a 110-year-old organization that helps refugees and other immigrants.

The nonprofit’s job placement records show many new arrivals are employed as drivers, security guards, caregivers and warehouse workers. The vast majority earn minimum wage to about $20 an hour.

Where California immigrants work

Many employers in California are reluctant to talk about immigration because of the sensitivities surrounding the politically charged issue, especially in this election year. The California Chamber of Commerce, California Business Roundtable and other industry groups declined to comment for this article.

Yet their member companies depend heavily on immigrants. Foreign-born Californians account for one-third of all workers at restaurants and warehouses; about 40% in home healthcare and child day care; almost 50% at trucking and lodging businesses; and 60% at services for landscaping and cleaning buildings, according to a Times analysis of 2022 Census Bureau data.

Are their large numbers holding back wage gains?

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Economists say there is some truth to the claim that a surge of working-class immigrant labor could put downward pressure on certain jobs, such as meatpacking and gardening. But studies have shown that immigration has had no significant negative impact on wages for American workers overall.

Giovanni Peri, an economics professor at UC Davis, said large-scale immigration actually boosts productivity and demand for services, which in turn helps companies to grow and create jobs that are more likely to be taken by native-born workers, such as those in sales and management.

It’s also well documented that immigrants have higher rates of self-employment, whether that means working as an Uber driver, pushing a street food cart or launching an ambitious tech business.

Yaroslav Uchkin and his girlfriend, Ukrainian refugees, moved to Los Angeles in February after several months in the Bay Area, where they had stayed with a host family. They both have work permits. Uchkin has found part-time work as a fitness instructor; his partner works as a food server.

“I have some vision,” Uchkin said of a business he’s looking to start, making sports nutrition products. “Why I’m here in L.A.? I love the place for energy. People love sports, they want to look better.”

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Uchkin and his girlfriend recently leased a one-bedroom apartment in Marina del Rey. The arrival of many new immigrants has helped reverse or, in L.A.’s case, stanch the population loss in cities that saw a pandemic-related exodus of residents, according to a study by Brookings Institution demographer William Frey.

“There’s no doubt the economy is better off because of immigration,” said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner at Beacon Economics, a research and consulting firm in Los Angeles.

“At one level, I understand people are nervous about folks coming here in an uncontrolled way,” he said, noting that he fears the anti-immigrant drumbeat is getting louder and louder.

“But our nation desperately needs people,” he said. “People have stopped having babies, and so many are going into retirement. And here we really have an opportunity to help our economy in the long run, and we are turning away from it.”

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Amid Harris' youth polling surge, latest figures show Biden did better with Black voters

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Amid Harris' youth polling surge, latest figures show Biden did better with Black voters

A comparison of polls taken before and after President Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid depicted the fledgling Vice President Kamala Harris campaign gaining momentum with one notable exception.

Harris, who could be the first Black female president and first president of South Asian descent, lost ground to Biden among Black voters, according to a recent analysis.

Delving into the crosstabs, or categorized responses, in New York Times/Siena polling from July 2 and July 24, Biden performed five points better than former President Trump with Black voters.

In the July 2 survey, Biden enjoyed 56% support among Black voters to Trump’s 13% — or a gap of 43 points.

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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. (Getty Images)

However, in the latest poll wherein Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic name, the vice president garnered support from 65% of Black respondents compared to Trump’s 17%. That calculates to a 48-point spread and a difference of five.

The disparity was first highlighted in a larger comparison of the two overall polls by Harvard Institute of Politics polling director John Della Volpe.

In a chart titled, “Harris Sees Dramatic Improvement Among Young Voters, Hispanics, Independents,” the MSNBC contributor depicted how Harris enjoyed a 29-point swing in her favor over Biden with voters aged 18-29.

Hispanic voters polled by the Times swung Harris’ way 33 points, and overall registered voters moved seven points her way – offering a 49-49 tie with Trump.

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Donald Trump arrives to Trump Tower after being found guilty

Democrats and liberal media pundits are dismissing polls showing former President Trump’s gains among Black voters. (Felipe Ramales for Fox News Digital)

However, Washington Free Beacon editor Peter Hasson posted Della Volpe’s chart and flagged the fact it also showed Harris losing five points among Black voters to Trump, whom Democrats often brand as racist or discriminatory against minorities.

During an address in Philadelphia earlier this month, Harris claimed Trump “stokes hate” and “incites fear.” Trump, however, has often highlighted relevant parts of his presidential record, such as working with Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., to establish “opportunity zones” in minority communities.

For his part, Trump has made overtures to the Black community during his current campaign, including announcing a planned trip to Chicago this week to join a question-and-answer session with the National Association of Black Journalists.

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He also will hold a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania – the majority-Black capital of the Keystone State. It will be his first event in the commonwealth since he was nearly assassinated about three hours westward in Butler on July 13.

Following a 2016 rally near Lansing, Michigan, Trump was lambasted from his left for ruminating aloud to Black voters with Democratic proclivities in underserved communities, “What the hell do you have to lose?”

His opponent at the time, Hillary Clinton, called the remark, “so ignorant, it’s staggering.”

Biden notably told a New York radio show popular within the Black community in 2020 that “if you have a problem figuring out whether you are for me or Trump, then you ain’t Black.”

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Delaware Republican running for governor aims to flip one-party rule in Biden's home state after three decades

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Delaware Republican running for governor aims to flip one-party rule in Biden's home state after three decades

A Republican primary candidate for governor of Delaware, Mike Ramone, said in a conversation with Fox News Digital that he intends to beat what he called one-party rule in President Biden’s home state. 

Currently serving as the minority leader of the state House, Ramone said he intends to flip the governor’s office red for the first time in more than three decades come November. 

“Delaware has been controlled by one party for 32 years. And I am here to give Delaware a choice,” Ramone said. “Balance brings discussion and discussion brings vetting, and vetting avoids unintended consequences…. There is the far red and the far blue that both will be out to vote. But I believe that many far-blue might even consider that they can do better also in the state of Delaware.” 

Under Democratic leadership, Ramone argued that Delaware has morphed into one of the worst states when it comes to education, health care, safety, traffic, and business friendliness. 

He said it’s the only state in the nation that had negative GDP. 

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“We need to go back to line item reviews of every single expense we make because we’re spending people’s taxes. It’s not our money. It’s their money. And I do think Ronald Reagan had it best, you know, ‘Are you better off today than you were then?’ And if people feel they’re better off, we won’t have a Republican,” Ramone said. “But if they feel that they’re tired of the drama in politics, if they feel they want to have a leader who leads from the front but supports from the back, if they feel that it’s time to move into the technology and the job development in fintech, in pharma, in other aspects like Pete DuPont did for our state when he moved us into being the corporate capital of the world, then they’re going to vote for Mike Ramone. They’re going to vote for a business person.”

Ramone, who has more than 40 years of experience in the business sector, said Delaware voters need to consider “management style” when electing their leaders.

KAMALA HARRIS EYES GOVERNORS FROM BATTLEGROUND STATES AS POSSIBLE VP PICKS

Mike Ramone has won eight elections in a state House district dominated by Democrat voters.  (Mike Ramone Campaign )

“The way we manage our state currently is dysfunctional. Our education system is one of the highest funded and one of the lowest in results. Our health care system is absolutely havoc-ridden,” he said. “I do not believe digesting hatred or negativeness or tainting facts is something I will ever be part of … I just think there are so many things we can do better. We need to stay focused. We need to create a vision.” 

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According to latest voter registration data available this month, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one in the state. Delaware also has about 16,600 more independent voters than registered Republicans, and Democrats currently control nine statewide offices. Additionally, Ramone’s campaign comes at a pivotal point nationally after Biden exited the presidential race. 

“Joe Biden. We are all proud of Joe. I’m a Republican, and I can say that because he’s the first Delawarean to ever become a president of the country,” Ramone said. “And I think that’s just wonderful. However, I don’t think the style of leadership we watched in the last years of presidential campaigns and so forth are what’s indicative of Delaware.” 

Mike Ramone smiles in front of a school building

Mike Ramone said Delaware has one of the highest funded and lowest performing education systems in the country.  (Mike Ramone Campaign )

Ramone, who first went into business at age 20, taking out an $8,000 loan to open his first flower shop, said he’s willing to put his reputation on the line to run the state in a way that’s “fiscally responsible” again. 

Delaware lost the three c’s – credit cards, chemicals and cars – when two major car manufacturers, the juggernaut DuPont, and MBNA closed their doors, Ramone said. 

He argued the state has the ideal location to become a fintech hub with Silicon Valley-esque initiatives to bring higher-paying jobs in different sectors to the state, not what he called the “$15 Amazon jobs.” 

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Ramone described education as a “catastrophe” in the state, arguing that most funding gets tied up in administration in the state’s 19 school districts and department of education, rather than being used in classrooms.

First elected to the state House 16 years ago, Ramone has survived eight separate elections to hold onto his district, which has more registered Democratic voters per capita than the state has as a whole. 

DEMOCRAT GOVERNORS REEL FROM BIDEN’S PUTIN-ZELENSKYY GAFFE, IMPLICATIONS FOR US LEADERSHIP ON WORLD STAGE

Mike Ramone smiles with a dog

Mike Ramone is running as a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Delaware.  (Mike Ramone Campaign )

“My belief is simple. My district is 8,000-something Democrats,” Ramone said. “It’s somewhere around 5,000 Republicans and around 5,200 independents. I’m the only elected official lucky enough to be reelected eight times in the state of Delaware, representing the third party, not the second party. I was in the minority minority. There’s more independents than Republicans, so I think I have a pretty good feel of building relationships. I think I have a pretty big feel of listening, and I think I have my fingers on the pulse of what Delaware is about. Delaware is a state that has an enormous amount of people who are fiscally reasonable, financially conservative, and socially moderate to liberal. In other words, leave people alone. Let them live their lives. But don’t clobber me for taxes and have overzealous government.” 

A father and grandfather, Ramone said he intends to make Delaware a state where younger generations can afford to live and prosper, instead of having to move elsewhere. 

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Delaware’s last Republican governor was Mike Castle, who served in the position from 1985 to 1993.

Despite running during a presidential election year, Ramone said he believes his resume and business acumen will win him the governor’s office. 

“When I ran in my district, Mike Ramone signs were right next to a lot of Joe Biden signs, Mike Ramone signs right next to a lot of Donald Trump signs and Mike Ramone signs were in a lot of yards with no signs. So Delaware is small enough that I believe the national rhetoric may involve a higher level of turnout. But I don’t believe that turnout will help nor hurt me,” Ramone said. 

Mike Ramone smiles with children

Mike Ramone promised to make Delaware a state where his grandchildren can afford to live and thrive.  (Mike Ramone Campaign)

Any traction for former President Trump in Kent and Sussex counties, Ramone argued, would be offset in New Castle County, where more Democrats would be motivated to bring out the vote against Trump. 

“I think it’s almost what you call revenue neutral. I think it’s going to offset itself. I’m not worried about what goes on nationally. I’m worried about what goes on in my community, in my state, and in each one of our three wonderful counties,” Ramone said. “You get into these campaigns, and they get so busy throwing bombs at each other, they forget to say why they should even be there. I’ll be focused on why I should be there. I’ll be focused on what I can do to help people. I will be focused on making Delaware a better place to live.” 

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In Delaware, the governor’s office is term limited, so current Democratic Gov. John Carney cannot run for re-election this year. 

Ramone will still need to advance through the Sept. 10 Republican primary. 

Jerry Price, a former New York Police Department officer, first announced his GOP bid for governor of Delaware in December. Ramone entered the primary race in May, and a third Republican, Bobby Williamson, launched his bid just earlier this month. For Democrats, current Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long and New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer are competing in the gubernatorial primary.

The winner from each party will face off in the Nov. 5 general election. 

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Black women, white dudes, crazy cat ladies: Identity groups fuel a groundswell for Harris

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Black women, white dudes, crazy cat ladies: Identity groups fuel a groundswell for Harris

Disabled voters for Harris. White dudes for Harris. Crazy cat ladies for Harris.

Since Vice President Kamala Harris vaulted into becoming the likely Democratic nominee for president a week ago, a groundswell of identity-based grassroots groups have sprung up online to rally behind her. The nightly calls are raising millions of dollars and securing hundreds of volunteers, drawing comparisons to the grassroots efforts that fueled former President Obama to victory in 2008.

But in 2024, in an era when identity shapes so much of politics, the rise of the first Black woman and first Asian American to be nominated for president by a major party is drawing more identity groups out of the woodwork.

“This is unprecedented diversity in the political pool,” said Pei-Te Lien, a professor in UC Santa Barbara’s Politics of Identity program. “That’s another reason why ‘identity group’ comes up, because we also see identity being recognized and used as leverage in the campaigns, in an unprecedented level.”

Within hours after President Biden announced he would not seek reelection and endorsed Harris as his replacement nominee, more than 44,000 Black women and allies from across the country gathered online, raising over $1.5 million, according to organizers. The template for that event, organized by Win With Black Women, was repeated the next day by Win With Black Men, which organizers said brought 45,000 Black men and raised $1.3 million.

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“It’s organic,” said Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, who attended a Zoom call for South Asians supporting Harris last week. “I think people are clear-eyed about what this moment means. I think they just feel a sense of hope that we actually could defeat Trump, and we could do it with a candidate that reflects the America that all these immigrants live in.”

With fewer than 100 days to the election and a new candidate leading the Democratic Party, the flood of groups — including Latino Men for Harris, Caribbean-Americans for Harris, Dads for Kamala and Native Women + Two Spirit for Harris — are motivated by a “sense of crisis,” Lien said.

“They feel like we are not in the mainstream — we are not able to have too much influence,” she said. “But we feel like we need to do our share to be able to help change the course. To prevent, basically, the coming apocalypse or whatever.”

Former President Trump has pointedly courted Black and Latino voters this year, and has been drawing greater support from minority groups than he did in his previous two campaigns. But fewer identity-based groups are organized for Republicans.

When white women took to Zoom last week to support the Democrat, a technical glitch forced the livestream to abruptly end just a few minutes after it began. Later, organizers found out why in a message from Zoom: “You are officially hosting the Zoom webinar with the most registrants in our history!”

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“Kamala Harris broke Zoom!” one of the hosts exclaimed.

Some of the white women who had logged on said the idea of supporting Kamala Harris as an identity group was necessary and empowering. But it was also uncomfortable.

“I have to admit: When I was writing stuff down, I was like, ‘Karens for Kamala’?” said Connie Britton, the actor who played Tami Taylor on “Friday Night Lights.” “Why is it so difficult for us to acknowledge and address ourselves as white women?”

The “White Dudes for Harris” call Monday, which 193,000 people attended, shared similar self-consciousness.

“What a variety of whiteness,” actor Bradley Whitford quipped. “It’s like a rainbow of beige.”

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Ross Morales Rocketto, the group’s lead organizer, said a lot of people expressed discomfort about the concept of White Dudes for Harris. He understood their qualms: “Throughout American history, when white men have organized, it was often with pointy hats on.”

“The reason we are doing this is because the left has been ceding white men to the MAGA right for way, way too long,” Rocketto said, noting that Trump had won more than 60% of white men in 2016 and 2020. “That’s going to stop tonight. We know that the silent majority of white men aren’t actually MAGA supporters.”

But other attendees, such as Jeff Bridges — who played the Dude in the “The Big Lebowski” — wore their White Dudes for Harris hats with pride.

“A friend sent me this email today with your hat on there, and I said, ‘Oh, I gotta have one of those. I qualify … I’m white, I’m a dude, and I’m for Harris,’” Bridges said.

The group drew negative attention and mockery from conservatives.

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“They should give it a more fitting name,” Donald Trump Jr. wrote on X. “Like Cucks for Kamala.”

Before Shannon Watts, the activist and founder of gun control group Moms Demand Action, organized the white women’s meeting, she called Jotaka Eaddy, organizer of the Black women’s Zoom, seeking her counsel.

“She told me that white women did need to come together as a community to do the work,” Watts said. “Because our work is very different.”

In addition to recognizing their privilege, railing against white supremacy and patriarchy, navigating the toxicity of online politics and offering practical pointers on campaigning, the more than 164,000 women who gathered online raised $2 million in 90 minutes. The white men’s call raised $4.2 million.

“Many white people don’t want to be identified with that white guy,” said Lien, the UCSB professor. “Identity matters only because they don’t want to be lumped together in the same camp as … white supremacists.”

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Christopher Parker, a professor of political science at UC Santa Barbara, pointed to the 2016 election, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — then the first woman to lead the Democratic ticket — lost to Trump. By 2020, he said, Democrats had coalesced behind Biden, but “were more voting against Trump than for Biden.”

Harris enjoys a double advantage, according to Parker: voters enthused by her as a candidate and voters who are anti-Trump.

“People got it right in 2020 that it was about an existential threat that Trump posed,” he said. “You have that here, but you also have this excitement over her candidacy and what she represents symbolically, and what she can do when it comes to policy.”

The Harris campaign has mostly hung back from directly engaging with the various group calls, except when Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff surprised a Black gay and queer men’s group by joining a call last week.

On Tuesday, Harris announced she would be headlining a “National Organizing Call” — open to all identities.

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