Politics
Ukraine wants a no-fly zone. Why do the U.S. and NATO reject the idea?
As persistently as Ukrainians demand a no-fly zone to guard them from Russia, the U.S. and NATO simply as steadily insist it might’t be completed.
The requires a no-fly zone body it as existential: defending hundreds of thousands of determined Ukrainian civilians trapped in besieged villages from the may of Russia’s air pressure and its arsenal of cluster bombs. The pleas turned extra pressing when Russian forces attacked and captured Europe’s largest nuclear energy plant, situated in southern Ukraine and certainly one of a number of scattered across the nation.
But leaders together with President Biden and NATO Secretary-Basic Jens Stoltenberg have repeatedly turned apart the pleas from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, populations all through Europe and even some U.S. lawmakers.
“All of the individuals who die from this present day ahead can even die due to you, due to your weak point,” Zelensky stated bitterly final week, addressing leaders who once more opposed navy restrictions of Ukrainian airspace. “The alliance has given the inexperienced mild to the bombing of Ukrainian cities and villages by refusing to create a no-fly zone.”
Why are so many Western officers so adamant?
A no-fly zone, many Western officers say, would draw the U.S. and its NATO allies into direct fight with Russia, as fighter pilots from the 2 sides in concept would attempt to shoot one another down — an escalation that many liken to a world battle, one involving two main nuclear powers.
“The one option to implement a no-fly zone is to ship NATO fighter planes into Ukrainian airspace, after which impose that no-fly zone by taking pictures down Russian planes,” Stoltenberg stated. “We perceive the desperation, however we additionally imagine that if we did that, we’d find yourself with one thing that might finish in a full-fledged battle in Europe.”
In a single state of affairs that some analysts have raised, a U.S. or NATO fighter jet would discover itself within the place of firing on a Russian transport plane dropping paratroopers onto the battlefield. The Russian dying toll in such a case wouldn’t be restricted to the comparatively few members of a crew however may embrace presumably dozens of troopers.
Not simply fighter jets
It’s much more difficult than that. To implement a no-fly zone, air fight missions must be supported by ground-based operations that present intelligence, focusing on steering and different info. These could possibly be arrange in Poland or different NATO international locations within the neighborhood, or presumably from plane carriers offshore, nevertheless it represents one other stage of involvement.
And the U.S. and its NATO allies would additionally should be ready to go in over land to rescue downed pilots and maybe take out anti-aircraft weapons inside Russian or Belarusian territory.
At the least initially, “it will be a one-sided struggle as a result of U.S. and NATO airpower has a marked benefit,” stated Alexander Downes, co-director of the Institute for Safety and Battle Research at George Washington College. “However the danger is escalation. It’s a slippery slope from there to a taking pictures battle.”
What a couple of restricted no-fly zone over, say, a humanitarian hall for fleeing Ukrainians?
“No,” was the one-word reply from a senior U.S. Protection official on Monday.
Later, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby described the state of play within the skies over Ukraine. Russia has but to determine air superiority over your complete nation, he stated.
“It’s dynamic,” Kirby stated. “It modifications each day. However Ukrainian plane are flying. Russian plane are flying. Missiles from each are additionally within the airspace.”
Russian forces are more and more utilizing “long-range fires” with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and even artillery launched from the air, the bottom and ships and submarines within the sea, Kirby stated. They declare a mounting variety of civilian lives.
Warning from Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has already warned in opposition to aggressive U.S. or NATO actions; even financial sanctions, he says, are tantamount to a declaration of battle.
And late final month he advised Russia’s navy to position nuclear forces on “excessive fight alert.” The U.S. has not modified its alert stage, with the Biden administration accusing Putin of “manufacturing threats.”
Nonetheless, momentum for a partial safety of the airways is rising. A bunch of overseas coverage consultants, together with many former U.S. authorities officers, acknowledged in an open letter launched Tuesday {that a} “restricted” no-fly zone executed by the U.S. and NATO allies over humanitarian corridors delivering help and permitting individuals to flee was not solely attainable however crucial.
“NATO leaders ought to convey to Russian officers that they don’t search direct confrontation with Russian forces, however they have to additionally clarify that they won’t countenance Russian assaults on civilian areas,” the letter states.
The 27 signatories embrace former ambassador to NATO and Ukraine particular envoy Kurt Volker and two-time U.S. ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor.
In concept, Russia has agreed to permit such safety for humanitarian corridors, however belief in Moscow’s guarantees and intentions is at a low level.
Is there a historical past of profitable no-fly zones?
Some navy historians level to the managed skies over Iraq within the Nineteen Nineties in reference to the primary Gulf Warfare.
However the structure was considerably totally different from Ukraine’s scenario. Within the Nineteen Nineties model, the zone was arrange not between two warring superpowers combating one another however amongst quite a few international locations working kind of in live performance to include a typical enemy, Iraq, and stop it from flying its plane.
Related zones have been established throughout the civil battle in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1993-95, and throughout the Libyan civil battle in 2011 — with various levels of success and problems.
Opinions from Congress
A uncommon congressional voice in favor of a no-fly zone surfaced over the weekend. Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a Republican from Illinois and a former Air Drive fight pilot, stated it was pressing to cease Putin now earlier than his takeover of Ukraine is irreversibly entrenched.
“There’s danger,” he stated on CNN. “We clearly have a look at that with eyes vast open. However I believe there’s danger in inaction.”
His fellow Republican, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, sided with the naysayers.
“A no-fly zone has develop into a catchphrase,” he advised ABC. “I’m undecided lots of people totally perceive what which means. It’s not some rule you cross that everyone has to oblige by. It’s the willingness to shoot down the aircrafts of the Russian Federation, which is principally the start of World Warfare III.”
A ‘tough line’
For now, the U.S. technique is to ship massive quantities of weaponry into Ukraine — a $350-million tranche is being delivered now — that can help Ukrainians in defending themselves.
“A lot of the harm being completed is by artillery and rocket hearth, not by the Russian Air Drive. So an NFZ, which I initially supported, won’t resolve the issue, but it brings all of the dangers of escalation,” retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding basic of the U.S. Military in Europe, advised The Occasions.
“We wish to get the UAF [Ukrainian Air Force] the aptitude to knock down drones and helicopters,” he stated. “We ought to be in search of longer-term options.”
He steered Stingers, Avengers and Patriot surface-to-air missile techniques as splendid weapons.
Even because the U.S. will increase the quantity of weaponry it sends to Ukraine, it should achieve this with out showing to be immediately concerned within the battle. How Putin assesses that participation is one other query, stated Downes, of the Institute for Safety and Battle Research.
“It’s a really tough line to stroll,” he stated.
Politics
Trump camp confident based on early voting, while Black leaders say Harris is struggling
At a time when we’re all deluged with conflicting polls and statistical ties, Donald Trump’s campaign is unusually confident.
The Kamala Harris operation also sees reason for optimism, with news that late deciders are breaking her way by more than 10%. But she still casts herself as the underdog. Her “SNL” appearance doesn’t change that; nor does Trump saying that RFK’s plan to remove fluoride from the water, a major public health advance, “sounds okay to me.”
Most media folks, either publicly or privately, believe Trump will win, even as the anti-Trumpers beg their followers to turn out for the VP – such as MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly back Harris.
The climax of the campaign seems built around a gaping gender gap–with Kamala doing far better among women and Trump much better among men.
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The view from the Trump camp is that registration figures favor Republicans, based on mail-in voting, in the battleground states that will decide the race. Nearly half the country has already voted.
Take the crucial commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% advantage, and that’s now shrunk to a 3-point edge.
What’s more, just 39% of Democrats who have voted there so far are men, compared to 49% among Republicans.
Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, who appears on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania electorate is much more Republican, and much more male, than last time.
Harris needs a huge turnout in Philadelphia to carry the state, and numerous news reports say she’s still struggling to win over some Black men.
In Wisconsin, the view from Trump World is that in-person voting (which tends to favor the former president) is outnumbering mail ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s strength is among male, white and rural voters. So, as in the case of Philly, Harris must do very well in Milwaukee and Madison to carry the state.
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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told me is a toss-up, remains an enigma, because it doesn’t track party registration. So the ballgame there may turn on how well Harris does in Detroit.
The Trump camp sees similar advantages in such swing states as Georgia and North Carolina, where public polling is close but would be a bigger stretch for a Harris win. The election really turns on the three Blue Wall states.
Maybe Harris should have picked Josh Shapiro?
In one key state after another, local Black leaders are quoted on the record as saying they’re worried about warning signs in their community:
Politico: “The city of Milwaukee is trailing the rest of the state by about 7 percent both in its mail-in return rate and in overall registered voter turnout. It’s a warning sign, even some Democrats privately say, for Harris as her campaign looks to run up the score with urban and suburban voters to overcome Wisconsin’s rural counties.”
Capital B, Atlanta: The turnout of Black voters in Georgia “has dropped from more than 29 percent” on the first day of early voting “to about 25 percent…That’s the bad news for Harris…
TRUMP IS ‘SURGING’ WHILE KAMALA HARRIS IS ‘COLLAPSING’: CLAY TRAVIS
“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats looking for a guaranteed win in statewide office races in Georgia usually need to hit a 30 percent Black turnout rate.”
Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, Black voters had cast 207,000 fewer ballots compared with four years ago — a drop of almost 40 percent.”
“I am worried about turnout in Detroit. I think it’s real,” said Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.
A sunnier view is offered by this Politico piece, which says that public polls appear to be undercounting Harris’ support.
The story says that “shy Trump voters” – who don’t want to tell pollsters who they’re supporting–are a thing of the past, given the aggressive nature of his campaign.
Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are missed by the polls, especially Republicans frustrated with their own party: Nikki Haley voters.
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Citing a national survey, Politico says 66% of those voting for Haley in the primaries backed Trump in 2016, dropping to 59% four years ago and an estimated 45% this time. “Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled from only 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.”
To which I say: Who the hell knows?
We’re at the point now before tomorrow’s election that pollsters are analyzing the polls to figure out which ones are off. And–here comes the cliché – it all depends on turnout. Despite raising a billion bucks, if some of Harris’ potential supporters stay home, that sinks her candidacy.
The scenarios favored by the Trump team rest largely on party registration, not polls that have missed the mark in the last two cycles.
That explains why the former president is more confident, even as he asks his advisers whether they really believe he’s going to win.
Politics
Editorial: Election results may take time. That's a fact, not grounds for conspiracy theories
Election day is almost here, and the end of this tumultuous campaign season cannot come soon enough. But it may not come Tuesday night.
Given that the race for president is expected to be close, it’s quite possible that Americans will have to wait days to learn whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Trump will be the next commander in chief. Vote counting may take a while, and — despite what bad-faith actors might suggest — that’s OK. A healthy democracy can afford to be meticulous in counting every vote and patient in waiting for accurate results.
In 2020, Trump cynically and dangerously claimed that legitimate delays to count a record number of mailed ballots were evidence of fraud and asserted that Democrats were “trying to steal the election.” Trump’s lies were debunked and rejected by judges in numerous court cases, but his misinformation campaign persuaded thousands of people to show up to his “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021, and storm the Capitol in an effort to prevent Congress from certifying the election results.
This year, election officials (both Republicans and Democrats among them) have been trying to reset expectations of how quickly votes can be counted in an attempt to tamp down conspiracy theories.
Here are the facts:
- More states, including California, have expanded the use of mail-in ballots and ballot drop boxes, which are more convenient for voters. These ballots take longer to count because election personnel verify signatures on ballot envelopes against state records.
- States have different rules that may affect the speed of their counts. Pennsylvania, for example, does not allow election workers to begin processing mail ballots until election day. North Carolina is requiring a photo ID to vote this year, which is expected to increase the number of provisional ballots that have to be researched to determine eligibility, which takes time.
- In 2020, Trump made the absurd and laughably ignorant assertion that ballots counted after election day aren’t legitimate. Election officials do not — and should not — stop tallying votes after 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday. That would be impractical and unfair. And no election has ever been certified on election day.
- Some politicians, pundits and even media outlets may choose to “call” a race based on early returns, but that’s often irresponsible. The results can shift as ballots are counted. In the 2018 midterm election, early returns had Republican candidates leading in some key California congressional races. That turned out to be a “red mirage”: When all the ballots were counted, Democrats won the seats and control of the House. At the time, some Republicans suggested that the reversal of fortune was an indication of some type of election misconduct. It wasn’t. Election officials were simply doing their jobs and ensuring that every vote was counted.
This is a politically fraught moment. Foreign powers and opportunists have already been spreading disinformation to undermine confidence in the election. Last week, U.S. intelligence agencies blamed Russia for a viral video purporting to show a Haitian immigrant with multiple Georgia IDs claiming to have voted multiple times. Russia is also allegedly responsible for a fake video that purports to show someone destroying ballots marked for Trump in Pennsylvania.
That’s why it’s so important to rely on facts, verifiable information and reliable sources such as the National Assn. of Secretaries of State, whose members run elections, and to be a discerning consumer of social media, where so many false claims circulate.
This year’s election will test Americans and our democratic institutions. Let’s do everything possible to ensure we pass.
Politics
How Red and Blue America Shop, Eat and Live
There are thousands of golf courses in the United States. You can find them in every state, in nearly every county; there’s probably one near you.
Take all those data points, and you can see that there are more golf courses for every 100,000 voters in redder neighborhoods than in blue ones.
There are also thousands of breweries in the U.S., but they’re much more concentrated on the coasts and in urban areas.
The brewery-to-voter ratio is much higher in some of the country’s bluest precincts, where Joe Biden won the vote in 2020.
You can’t tell how people vote just by whether they enjoy a drink at a brewery or a round of golf. But the geographic distribution of these two places shows how much our surroundings differ, often unintentionally, along political lines.
It’s not just golf and brewing: People in America’s reddest neighborhoods see a different landscape of stores, restaurants and venues when they step outside their homes than those in more politically even precincts or the very bluest areas.
We wanted to look at this relationship between politics and the places around us. So, using data from the Overture Maps Foundation, we took the location of millions of different stores, restaurants, churches, parks and more and lined them up with the 2020 election results, down to the precinct.
We don’t know who goes to each place. But we know how the neighborhoods surrounding each locale vote.
The results are sometimes obvious: Yoga studios and cocktail bars skew toward deeply blue spaces, and gun stores and farms toward redder precincts. But they show how our politics, geography and lives intersect, not always in obvious ways.
In many cases, these graphs look the way they do largely because of the urban-rural divide. Certain activities, like golf, need space, and the more rural parts of the country tend to vote for Republicans. Meanwhile, a small, Democratic-leaning urban area might be a commercial hub for a redder county, with a brewery, coffee shop and bookstore; those businesses would look blue in our data set even if they were frequented equally by Republicans and Democrats.
“The placement of businesses is probably motivated primarily by income level and population density,” said Nick Rogers, a sociology professor at the University of Pittsburgh. “It just so happens that an area’s political ideology is highly correlated with these things.”
Some places, of course, are just everywhere:
And some kinds of places don’t fit easily into one bucket or the other.
Consider Baptist churches: A majority of the tens of thousands of these churches in the U.S. are in the South. That means they’re heavily concentrated in both Republican neighborhoods and largely Black, heavily Democratic areas. The resulting distribution looks like this:
Wineries, too, show a double hump. You can see that in California alone — with wine production clustered along both its bluer coastline and the redder Central Valley.
For many brands, the partisan map emerges from the regional footprint of the business. Piggly Wiggly mostly serves redder states in the South, while Food Lion is spread across a more politically varied area in the Southeast.
But the maps cut across people and places in different ways. A liberal voter in Los Angeles may have never heard of Piggly Wiggly. But it’s also possible that person has never heard of Stop & Shop, a supermarket in the bluer Northeast.
Other brands that aren’t so regionally clustered have expanded in pursuit of the clientele they already know. For example, Whole Foods, Peet’s Coffee and the upscale sportswear brand Lululemon have a high-earning urban customer base.
The Overture data in this analysis reflects businesses and places that have logged their locations on either Meta or Microsoft platforms; the data is imperfect and includes mislabeled locations and closed stores. But this is the best publicly available data set of its kind, and it lets us see patterns in the data that aren’t captured by surveys of consumer preference.
Here’s a roundup of them.
Fast food
One fast food chain in many deep blue precincts is Popeyes. The chicken purveyor is found in many Southern cities but also across the West Coast and up and down I-95.
Its competitor Chick-fil-A — despite an early 2010s controversy over gay rights — is also in many blue areas.
Among the chains found in redder places are Tennessee-based Hardee’s and Oklahoma-based Sonic.
And Burger King, like McDonald’s, is everywhere.
Coffee shops
Starbucks is by far the nation’s largest coffee chain, and while it might feel as if it’s everywhere, it hews toward slightly denser locations.
Some smaller coffee chains have a more significant skew. West Coast chains like Blue Bottle and Peet’s Coffee are common in some of the bluest areas; the largest chain in our data with a strong presence in redder areas is Scooter’s Coffee.
Breakfast spots
IHOP neighborhoods are bluer than those around the largely Midwestern restaurant Bob Evans. Huddle House is the major breakfast chain with the highest frequency in red areas in our data.
Convenience stores
7-Eleven started in Texas, but it has since spread across many blue places.
Regional convenience store chains in redder areas include Casey’s General Store and Allsup’s.
Religious institutions
The headquarters of the Mormon Church are in blue Salt Lake City. But it has many temples in rural parts of the Mountain West.
First Congregational Church, on the other hand, is a common name for a church in the United Church of Christ, a socially liberal Protestant denomination common in New England.
First United Methodist churches are in redder areas:
Hindu and Buddhist temples are both typically in more liberal areas.
Professionals
Occupations also have recognizable patterns in our data, probably in large part because of the rural-urban political divide.
Some professions lend themselves to cities:
Others, to the countryside:
And yet others can find business just about anywhere:
Leisure
A lot of the activities we do for fun also map across politics.
Services
Even basic services follow similar patterns. Fire departments skew red because they have to be everywhere, regardless of how many people live there. Even a small, rural area needs a fire department. When you consider population density, you get this:
Elementary schools, meanwhile, are more population dependent.
Train stations, including those with subway stops, tend to be in more urban areas.
And propane suppliers, though everywhere, typically have more business in rural areas, farther from natural gas pipelines.
Taken together, the patterns are a reminder of how big and varied the country is — in its places and its politics.
You can explore the distribution of 100 large coffee chains, grocery stores, shops and other places below.
See More: Political Geography of 100 Large American Businesses
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