Politics
U.S. Makes Contingency Plans in Case Russia Uses Its Most Powerful Weapons
BRUSSELS — The White Home has quietly assembled a group of nationwide safety officers to sketch out situations of how the USA and its allies ought to reply if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — pissed off by his lack of progress in Ukraine or decided to warn Western nations in opposition to intervening within the battle — unleashes his stockpiles of chemical, organic or nuclear weapons.
The Tiger Group, because the group is thought, can also be inspecting responses if Mr. Putin reaches into NATO territory to assault convoys bringing weapons and assist to Ukraine, in response to a number of officers concerned within the course of. Assembly thrice every week, in categorized periods, the group can also be responses if Russia seeks to increase the battle to neighboring nations, together with Moldova and Georgia, and the way to put together European international locations for the refugees flowing in on a scale not seen in a long time.
These contingencies are anticipated to be central to a unprecedented session right here in Brussels on Thursday, when President Biden meets leaders of the 29 different NATO nations, who can be assembly for the primary time — behind closed doorways, their cellphones and aides banished — since Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine.
Only a month in the past, such situations appeared extra theoretical. However in the present day, from the White Home to NATO’s headquarters in Brussels, a recognition has set in that Russia might flip to essentially the most highly effective weapons in its arsenal to bail itself out of a army stalemate.
NATO’s secretary common, Jens Stoltenberg, underscored the urgency of the preparation effort on Wednesday, telling reporters for the primary time that even when the Russians make use of weapons of mass destruction solely inside Ukraine, they could have “dire penalties” for folks in NATO nations. He gave the impression to be discussing the concern that chemical or radioactive clouds might drift over the border. One concern beneath examination is whether or not such collateral harm can be thought of an “assault” on NATO beneath its constitution, which could require a joint army response.
The present group was established in a memo signed by Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s nationwide safety adviser, on Feb. 28, 4 days after the invasion started, in response to the officers concerned within the course of, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate delicate planning. A earlier iteration had labored for months, behind the scenes, to arrange the U.S. authorities for the chance of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
That group performed a central function in devising the playbooks of deep sanctions, troop buildups in NATO nations and arming the Ukrainian army, which have exploited Russian weaknesses and put its authorities and financial system beneath great strain.
Mr. Stoltenberg, sounding way more hawkish than previously, mentioned he anticipated “allies will agree to offer further help, together with cybersecurity help and gear to assist Ukraine defend in opposition to chemical, organic, radiologic and nuclear threats.”
As Mr. Biden flew to Europe on Wednesday, each he and Mr. Stoltenberg warned of rising proof that Russia was the truth is getting ready to make use of chemical weapons in Ukraine.
These are questions that Europe has not confronted for the reason that depths of the Chilly Warfare, when NATO had far fewer members, and Western Europe anxious a few Soviet assault headed into Germany. However few of the leaders set to satisfy in Brussels on Thursday ever needed to cope with these situations — and lots of have by no means had to consider nuclear deterrence or the results of the detonation of battlefield nuclear weapons, designed to be much less highly effective than those who destroyed Hiroshima. The concern is that Russia is extra seemingly to make use of these weapons, exactly as a result of they erode the excellence between typical and nuclear arms.
Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who heads the Armed Companies Committee, mentioned on Wednesday that if Mr. Putin used a weapon of mass destruction — chemical, organic or nuclear — “there can be penalties” even when the weapon’s use was confined to Ukraine. Mr. Reed mentioned radiation from a nuclear weapon, as an example, might waft right into a neighboring NATO nation and be thought of an assault on a NATO member.
“It’s going to be a really troublesome name, nevertheless it’s a name that not simply the president however your entire NATO Council should make,” Mr. Reed informed reporters, referring to the governing physique of the Western alliance.
“The underside line is this can be a NATO choice,” Mr. Reed mentioned. “It gained’t be the president’s choice alone. I don’t suppose he’d wish to take motion unilaterally.”
One main concern the Tiger Group is is the brink that might immediate the alliance to make use of army pressure in Ukraine. Mr. Biden has made clear that he’s enormously reluctant to to take action, fearing that direct confrontation with Russia might escalate the battle past management. “That’s World Warfare III,” he famous just lately.
A second group of officers, additionally created by Mr. Sullivan’s Feb. 28 memo, is long-term alternatives for the USA to enhance its geopolitical place because of Mr. Putin’s invasion. Contained in the White Home, it has grow to be an article of religion that the Russian chief made an enormous strategic error — one that may diminish Russia’s standing, cripple its financial system and alienate potential allies for years. However it’s early within the battle, different officers warning, and that conclusion might show untimely.
The instant concern is what Mr. Putin might do subsequent — pushed by a need to rescue a failing army effort or re-establish his credentials as a pressure to be feared.
Officers consider the probabilities that Mr. Putin will resort to detonating a nuclear weapon are small. However Russia’s regular stream of reminders that it has its arsenal on the prepared, and will use it in response to something it perceives as an “existential risk,” has put Washington on excessive alert.
Mr. Biden will take up with allies “the way to cope with the rhetoric and the commentary popping out of Russia on this entire query of the potential use of nuclear weapons,” Mr. Sullivan informed reporters on Wednesday.
Russia-Ukraine Warfare: Key Developments
“We haven’t seen something that’s made us regulate our posture, our nuclear posture, however it’s in fact one thing we should proceed to remain in shut session with allies and companions on, in addition to talk on to the Russians.”
A number of officers mentioned the White Home and Pentagon have had some rigidity over how a lot element the Protection Division is keen to share on its extremely secretive battle planning — particularly regarding responses to any use of nuclear weapons — even within the categorized setting of the Tiger Group. (The time period has been used for a few years to explain an emergency activity pressure contained in the Nationwide Safety Council.)
A U.S. official mentioned Mr. Biden remained adamant about holding American forces out of Ukraine. However the official mentioned the administration believed it will be misguided to not carefully look at the thresholds, if any, beneath which the president would reverse himself, or to be ready to cope with the implications of using weapons of mass destruction.
A senior administration official mentioned any use of a “small” tactical nuclear bomb by Russia — even inside Ukraine and never directed at a NATO member — would imply that “all bets are off” on the USA and NATO staying out of the battle. However when pushed, the official declined to put out the responses beneath dialogue.
The official mentioned American and NATO intelligence communities had not seen any exercise by Russian army officers that urged preparations to make use of a nuclear weapon. However he mentioned that in inside discussions, administration officers had been urging warning, as a result of there was extra at stake than simply Ukraine.
If Mr. Putin did strike a NATO nation deliberately, he wouldn’t solely convey the pressure of the army alliance to bear on Russia, but in addition most likely discover himself dealing with NATO troops inside Ukraine, Artis Pabriks, Latvia’s protection minister, informed reporters touring in his nation this month with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees.
“He’ll get Article 5,” Mr. Pabriks mentioned, in a reference to the NATO pledge that an assault on one alliance member is an assault on all.
“If he will get that, mainly that may additionally make us concerned in Ukraine,” Mr. Pabriks mentioned, including: “He has no method out of that. So I don’t suppose he must be so silly.”
Senator Angus King of Maine, an unbiased and a member of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Companies Committees, visited the Polish-Ukrainian border over the weekend, assembly with officers from allied international locations, visiting a refugee processing middle and speaking with Ukrainians. Mr. King mentioned that as Russian forces wrestle to make headway, Mr. Putin might attempt to strike a diplomatic settlement, intensify his bombardment of Ukrainian cities and stage them, or lash out in opposition to the West with a cyberattack.
“The fourth is escalate to de-escalate, which is a tactical nuclear weapon,” Mr. King mentioned, utilizing the time period for a Russian army doctrine through which it will make use of a nuclear weapon as a warning — after which negotiate.
Politics
Opinion: On homelessness, liberal California and the ultraconservative Supreme Court largely agree
What does a small, solidly Republican city in Oregon have in common with California’s largest liberal enclaves? All breathed a sigh of relief this year thanks to the far-right U.S. Supreme Court.
The court’s conservative bloc ruled in favor of the city of Grants Pass, Ore., in June, overturning a key lower court ruling on homelessness and clearing the way for local governments to crack down on sleeping in public spaces regardless of the availability of housing or shelter. California’s response to the ruling has become a vivid reminder of not just the intractability of the homelessness epidemic but also the tension between national liberal politics and local policy in Democratic-dominated states and cities.
Some 186,000 people across California lack consistent shelter. Roughly 84% of the state’s voters believe homelessness is a “very serious” problem, a Quinnipiac University poll found, and Democrats and Republicans were in similarly broad agreement on that assessment, at 81% and 85%, respectively. In that light, it’s not surprising that California officials have wasted no time since Grants Pass in implementing their preferred “solution” to the homelessness problem.
From San Diego to San Francisco, state and local workers began disassembling makeshift shelters and camps and displacing the homeless people living in them. Within days, entire blocks were remade across the state. Residents rallied to social media platforms such as Reddit and Nextdoor to exchange strategies for getting homeless encampments removed from their own neighborhoods.
Other California residents have taken the Supreme Court’s ruling and Democratic officials’ exuberant co-sign as further evidence of the nation’s growing disdain for society’s most marginalized. Reports spread of homeless people being ejected from campsites with little or no warning, their pets taken away and medications lost, among other indignities.
The American Civil Liberties Union and other advocacy groups have condemned the Grants Pass ruling. The chief executive of the National Alliance to End Homelessness said it set a “dangerous precedent.” But the precedent set by California Democrats has arguably been far more dangerous.
During the initial waves of the Golden State’s housing crisis, in the late 1970s, Democratic politicians were reluctant to be seen as overtly antagonistic to the state’s homeless people, many of them veterans of the nation’s wars in Vietnam and Korea. But as the homeless population has grown and diversified, officials have faced deepening NIMBY sentiment not just in California’s well-heeled liberal cities but also in Democratic-leaning working-class communities that increasingly experience the highest rates of homelessness and related problems such as loitering and blight. As a result, anti-homeless policies have become more politically appealing despite being painfully at odds with inclusivity and other virtues Democrats signal on the national stage.
Addressing the housing crisis has been a quintessential and enduring social justice cause for Democrats, encompassing themes that tend to unify the party, including health, economic and racial equity. According to one survey, 82% of homeless adults in California reported having experienced a serious mental health condition, and 65% had used illicit drugs at some point. The state’s Black people are disproportionately affected by homelessness: Despite making up only about 5% of California’s total population, they represent roughly 25% of its homeless people. Such statistics helped liberals frame homelessness as a product of Republican policies weakening social services and promoting unchecked capitalism.
But that view has lost support as homelessness has become more dramatic and visible over the last decade. In some of California’s liberal enclaves, homeless encampments have become full-blown tent cities. Scenes of squalor, drug use and petty crime have spawned a subculture of gonzo-style documentary videos racking up hundreds of thousands of views on YouTube. San Francisco and Los Angeles have the most prominent crises, inviting scrutiny of the latter city’s readiness to host the 2028 Olympics.
Democrats’ conundrum is whether authorities should roust, fine and imprison people residing in public spaces in the interest of answering the broader community’s quality-of-life concerns. Critics have argued that such criminalization is a cruel distraction and that more affordable housing is the only way to meaningfully address the crisis.
Gov. Gavin Newsom and his predecessor, Jerry Brown, devoted billions of dollars to homelessness prevention and affordable housing even as the homeless population generally continued to grow. Newsom was quick to seize on the conservative Supreme Court’s permission to put punishment ahead of housing, warning cities that if they don’t remove encampments, they risk losing state funding. San Francisco Mayor London Breed, who just lost a reelection bid partly because of concerns about homelessness, likewise promised to be “very aggressive” in removing encampments. Never mind that those displaced by the state’s homeless sweeps often end up occupying another nearby space and returning at a later date.
So how did we get here? California’s ruling Democrats have tried to have it all ways, largely cultivating and tolerating deeply bureaucratic housing development standards while amplifying a booming tech industry populated by employees willing to pay top dollar for homes, dramatically boosting prices. And although Newsom and others have heralded emergency housing and other measures to answer the crisis, the total capacity is far short of the unhoused population. That’s partly because new facilities are often rebuffed by cities such as the L.A. suburb of Norwalk, which recently enacted a moratorium on homeless shelters.
Reducing and preventing homelessness, whatever the underlying motivations, is one of the few civic concerns that bind the political parties together in an age of stark polarization. Beyond the obvious moral merits of the cause, it could provide a road map to arrive at bipartisan solutions for other challenges facing the state and country. Unfortunately, the consensus on homelessness is coalescing around a prescription with little chance of long-term success.
Jerel Ezell is an assistant professor of community health sciences at UC Berkeley.
Politics
Biden thankful for smooth transition of power, urges Trump to 'rethink' tariffs on Canada and Mexico
President Biden on Thanksgiving said he was thankful that the transition of power to a second Trump administration has gone smoothly, while urging the incoming commander-in-chief to “rethink” threats to impose steep tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods.
“I hope that [President-elect Trump] rethinks it. I think it’s a counterproductive thing to do,” Biden told reporters Thursday on the island of Nantucket, Massachusetts, where he was spending the holiday with family. “We’re surrounded by the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Oceans and two allies — Mexico and Canada. The last thing we need to do is begin to screw up those relationships. I think that we got them in a good place.”
Earlier this week, Trump vowed to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada in an effort to get both nations to do more to stop the flow of illegal immigrants and illicit drugs into the U.S. Trump spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo on Wednesday, and both apparently came to an understanding, he said.
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“She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs. It was a very productive conversation!”
Trump also threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on China. Biden said Chinese President Xi Jinping “doesn’t want to make a mistake.”
“I am not saying he is our best buddy, but he understands what’s at stake,” he said.
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President Biden also said Thursday that illegal border crossings have been “down considerably” since Trump’s first term in office. Trump heavily campaigned on the border crisis that exploded after Biden took office.
The president also said he was pleased with the cease-fire deal between Israel and Lebanon and that he was “very, very happy” about China releasing three Americans who were “wrongfully detained” for several years.
Regarding the transition from his presidency to a second Trump administration, Biden said he wants the process to occur without any hiccups.
“I want to make sure it goes smoothly. And all the talk about what he is going to do and not do, I think that maybe it is a little bit of internal reckoning on his part,” he said.
Politics
Opinion: This Thanksgiving, I'm grateful for Sen. Mitch McConnell
A coping mechanism I’ve adopted since the election of Donald Trump, a man more deserving of prison than the presidency, is to look for reasons for even the slightest optimism about the nation’s governance over the next four years. To that end, this Thanksgiving I’m grateful for the Republican “Grim Reaper,” Mitch McConnell.
Really.
Yes, I’m saying I’m thankful for the sour senator from Kentucky who’s built a turkey of a legacy: Fighting for years, up to a conservative Supreme Court, to successfully decapitate limits on campaign contributions from corporations and special interests. Stuffing that court and lower benches with far-right jurists. Finally, engineering Trump’s Senate acquittal after the House impeached him for inciting an insurrection that trashed the Capitol McConnell professes to revere.
Opinion Columnist
Jackie Calmes
Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.
It’s because of that last McConnell “achievement” that we face Trump 2.0. Had the Senate convicted Trump in February 2021, it probably would have followed with a vote to bar him from running for office again, as the Senate has for impeached and convicted judges.
So here we are, and McConnell too.
At 82, the longest-serving party leader in Senate history is voluntarily surrendering his crown to mentee Sen. John Thune of South Dakota. He will serve the last two years of his seventh and perhaps final term among the rank and file of the Republican majority. It’s McConnell’s just deserts to take a demotion as Trump returns to the summit: For all of McConnell’s past services to the once and future president, since Jan. 6 the two men have loathed each other more than I loathe marshmallows on sweet potatoes.
Familiar as he is with power, McConnell is well aware of who holds it now. Still, he won’t be without clout in Trump’s Washington. He won’t retreat to the backbenches or bend the knee. He even relishes the schoolyard nickname Trump gave him — “Old Crow” — doling out bottles of the Kentucky bourbon with his mug on the label.
McConnell may be stooped with age, but he’s suggesting publicly and privately that he’ll rise to the occasion as leader of a Republican resistance in the Senate, providing cover to others, should Trump overreach. The president-elect already has done so with some grotesque Cabinet choices, preceded by his anticonstitutional demand that senators forfeit their “advice and consent” power and instead be rubber stamps. McConnell’s nearly immediate response amounted to “No way.”
If Trump, as president, carries through on his threat to illegally impound funds that Congress approves, expect McConnell to cry foul, and even back a court challenge. Most of all, look for McConnell — who will chair the defense spending subcommittee — to stand for continued U.S. leadership in the world, especially in support of Ukraine and NATO. That posture will surely ruffle the feathers of an “America First” president enamored of dictators and disdainful of allies.
“Opposition to Ukraine is about as much nonsense as [saying] Biden wasn’t legitimately elected,” McConnell says in a bite at Trump in a new biography, “The Price of Power.”
I’m not naive. McConnell will go along with many Trump actions, including serving up a bounty of unaffordable new tax cuts to the wealthy and corporations, urging Americans to gorge on fossil fuels and, again, stuffing the courts with right-wing ideologues.
Yet recall the ancient proverb: The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
As ruthless and rule-bending as McConnell has been on judicial confirmations and more, I’m betting he’ll respect institutional and constitutional lines that Trump scornfully crosses, and recruit a few other Republican senators to help hold those lines. A few Republicans are all that’s needed when the party’s majority is a narrow 53 to 47; Trump can lose just four votes if Democrats are united in opposition. I count up to a dozen Republicans who could take turns to buck Trump occasionally, which would dilute the political pain of Trump’s wrath.
On Trump’s nominations, for instance. Ex-con Stephen K. Bannon, among other MAGA militants, blamed McConnell (“You gotta give the devil its due”) for whipping up opposition that forced the unsavory former Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida off the menu as Trump’s nominee for attorney general. Publicly, too, McConnell was no chicken, as he countered Trump’s call to let nominees slide through as recess appointments.
“Each of these nominees needs to come before the Senate and go through the process and be vetted,” McConnell said two weeks ago. The institutionalist in him knows that, under the Constitution, the Senate’s power to confirm nominees is equal to a president’s in naming them.
Among those he could help defeat are Trump’s worst picks: Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the candidates to head intelligence, defense and health, respectively. A polio survivor, McConnell surely chokes on Kennedy’s anti-vax rhetoric. Likewise for Gabbard’s and Hegseth’s echoes of Trump’s skepticism and Vladimir Putin’s talking points on Ukraine.
McConnell has little to lose. He’ll be liberated in the new Congress, he told his biographer, Michael Tackett, no longer required as party leader to attend to the appetites of moderate and MAGA Republicans alike. He’s not expected to seek reelection in 2026. Sure, he’s unpopular nationally, in both parties. But inside the Senate, most Republicans respect and even like him. His outsized standing there will parallel that of former House Speaker and GOAT Nancy Pelosi, whom he praised last month: “I think Pelosi has done a pretty good job as a former speaker, still being able to express herself and have an audience.”
Similarly, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina predicted of McConnell, “When he speaks, people will listen.”
Forget the turkey. I’m bringing the popcorn. And rooting for the Old Crow.
@jackiekcalmes
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