Culture
College Football Playoff at-large contenders: Cases for, against and fatal flaws
As the season approaches its final two weeks, jostling for at-large bids continues for teams in the upper echelon of College Football Playoff competition.
At this point, there are teams with CFP hopes both as a conference champion and as an at-large. There are others, such as Big 12 contenders BYU and Colorado, which need to win their conference to reach the Playoff. The same scenario exists for Group of 5 squads Boise State and Tulane.
For the teams strictly in at-large contention, what are the cases for their inclusion and what are the flaws that could keep them from the 12-team tournament? Below we examine 16 teams with at-large hopes — not just the 16 highest-ranked teams — and examine why they are worthy of at-large consideration while breaking down their flaws.
No. 1 Oregon (11-0)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS (strength of schedule): 52; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-0; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 6-0; Points for: 33.9; Points against: 15.7.
Case for: The Ducks are the nation’s only unbeaten team, have ranked wins against Ohio State, Boise State and Illinois and compete in a coast-to-coast conference. At this stage, Oregon deserves the No. 1 ranking without debate.
Fatal flaw: This is more of a concern moving forward. Had Ohio State quarterback Will Howard slid a second earlier and called a timeout against Oregon, the Buckeyes might have kicked a game-winning field goal in Eugene. The teams are likely to meet in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship. Should Oregon fall, the Ducks could face Boise State again in the CFP, and they won that game on a last-second field goal. Rematches against motivated opponents could pose challenges.
No. 2 Ohio State (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 58; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 5-0; Points for: 37.8; Points against: 10.7.
Case for: The Buckeyes have the talent at every position to compete with any team in the country. They boast two NFL-caliber running backs and the nation’s top defense. Howard has completed 80 percent of his passes in six different games, and receivers Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are an electrifying trio. On a neutral field, this team could win it all.
Fatal flaw: There are times the Buckeyes look ordinary, like in a 21-17 home win against Nebraska. Injuries to Ohio State’s top two offensive linemen could have consequences against a physical, athletic front. Howard has competed at a high level this year, but can he make the game-winning plays in a close contest against similar talent?
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No. 3 Texas (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 39; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 7-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 3-0; Points for: 37.8; Points against: 12.1.
Case for: Texas can match up with anyone player-for-player. The Longhorns have the SEC’s top scoring defense and rank second nationally in total defense. They have an experienced quarterback in Quinn Ewers, elite players at every position and showed their grit by losing only one game so far in their first SEC season.
Fatal flaw: The Longhorns don’t own a victory over a current Top 25 team. They avoided Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee and South Carolina and they lost decisively to Georgia. That doesn’t take away their intent; the Longhorns traveled to defending national champion Michigan and won 31-19. But questions persist about how Texas will perform against fellow elite programs because they haven’t faced more than one entering this week’s showdown against Texas A&M.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 37; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 32.4; Points against: 14.6.
Case for: The Nittany Lions have handled their business in fine fashion. They survived at tough road venues like USC, Minnesota, Wisconsin and West Virginia with big plays in critical moments. Penn State has an underrated quarterback in Drew Allar, the nation’s best tight end in Tyler Warren and a top-five NFL Draft pick in edge rusher Abdul Carter. The Nittany Lions can adapt to different styles and weather won’t be a factor.
Fatal flaw: There are two big questions facing Penn State. One, can their wide receivers gain enough separation against an equally talented opponent? Two, can coach James Franklin string together multiple wins against top-10 competition? In Franklin’s 11 years, the Nittany Lions are 3-17 against top-10 opponents with only one victory in the last eight seasons.
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By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 65; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 39.0; Points against: 11.6.
Case for: Few, if any, teams have looked more impressive than Notre Dame in the last two months. Only once have the Irish allowed more than 16 points in a game, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in each of their last seven games. Quarterback Riley Leonard has become an elite playmaker and Notre Dame’s line of scrimmage play can hang with any opponent.
Fatal flaw: The Irish have ranked wins against Texas A&M and Army away from home, but their overall schedule was light. Notre Dame’s 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois has served as a lightning rod for criticism. For the Irish the scenario is simple: beat USC and pick up a home CFP game. Lose to the Trojans and probably fall from CFP consideration.
No. 6 Miami (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 61; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 44.7; Points against: 22.3.
Case for: The Hurricanes average more points than any team in CFP contention. With quarterback Cam Ward, Miami can fill it up. In five different games, the Hurricanes have scored at least 50 points.
Fatal flaw: No at-large contender allows more points per game than Miami at 22.3. The Hurricanes frequently have been involved in one-score games against unranked opponents and have needed late rallies to win. Miami has yet to play a Top 25 team, let alone beat one.
Miami will finish the regular season on the road against Syracuse on Saturday. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 4; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 33.2; Points against: 14.6.
Case for: Nobody has more quality wins than Georgia, which beat CFP contenders Clemson, Texas and Tennessee. When operating at a high level, the Bulldogs look like an eventual champion. They have a veteran quarterback and talent that jumps off the roster. Despite a loss at Alabama, their furious comeback attempt will scare any future opponent.
Fatal flaw: Which version of Carson Beck will take the field in the CFP? He’s thrown 12 interceptions and three picks in three different games, including in a loss to Alabama and a win against Texas. In a game between equally matched opponents, how Beck performs could enhance – or harm – Georgia’s performance.
No. 8 Tennessee (9-2)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 57; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 3-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 5-0; Points for: 37.4; Points against: 13.1.
Case for: The Vols can play any style of football and compete. They rank second in the SEC in both points scored and points allowed. Running back Dylan Sampson is one of the nation’s three best running backs and sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava displays some dynamic qualities.
Fatal flaw: Outside of beating Alabama, the Vols have an ordinary resume. None of their nonconference opponents are bowl eligible, and they lost to 6-5 Arkansas at home. It’s why Tennessee hovered outside the CFP before Ole Miss and Alabama suffered losses last weekend.
No. 9 SMU (10-1)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 59; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 4-0; Points for: 39.3; Points against: 21.0.
Case for: SMU’s ACC debut has been flawless with nary a loss despite a reduced revenue share. The Mustangs are one victory shy of running the table and advancing to the ACC title game. All-everything running back Brashard Smith was critical in wins against Duke and Pittsburgh.
Fatal flaw: An early loss to BYU lingers but not in the way most people expected back in September. With SEC teams slipping after their third loss, heightened scrutiny awaits SMU this weekend against Cal and in a potential ACC title game. It’s worth watching SMU’s defense, which has allowed at least 25 points to every bowl-eligible opponent since its BYU loss.
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By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 68; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 3-1; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 6-0; Points for: 41.3; Points against: 16.0.
Case for: The eye test and statistics favor Indiana. The Hoosiers have an electrifying offense led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke and five receivers with at least 24 catches, 280 yards and three touchdowns. Indiana also plays high-level defense, which is unusual for a portal-based team.
Fatal flaw: As of today, Indiana has beaten three FBS teams with winning records but that could fall to zero by Saturday. Its strength of schedule is by far the lowest of any power conference team vying for an at-large bid. In the Hoosiers’ only game against a ranked opponent, they lost 38-15 to Ohio State.
No. 12 Clemson (9-2)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 62; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 1-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 7-0; Points for: 37.6; Points against: 22.0.
Case for: In all but one of its victories, Clemson won by double figures. It has a potent offense guided by quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has 29 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tigers are third in the ACC in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
Fatal flaw: Clemson has the most pedestrian resume of any potential at-large squad. It has played just three FBS teams with winning records and won just once, and that was last week against 7-4 Pittsburgh. The Tigers give up nearly 23 points a game, the second-most of any team in the CFP Top 25.
No. 13 Alabama (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 7; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 6-3; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 1-0; Points for: 36.2; Points against: 17.5.
Case for: In the first half against Georgia or throughout its victories against LSU and Missouri, Alabama looked like not only a CFP team but a title contender. Nine of its 11 FBS opponents have winning records, including seven of eight SEC opponents.
Fatal flaw: It really starts and ends with the win-loss record. Losing three games would end CFP hopes for nearly every other program save for Alabama. The Tide dropped games to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, both of which are 6-5. It’s not impossible to build a case for Alabama’s inclusion, but it involves losses by multiple teams this weekend rather than for the Tide to simply beat Auburn.
No. 14 Ole Miss (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 31; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 5-2; Record vs. FBS non-winning teams: 2-1; Points for: 38.5; Points against: 13.9.
Case for: Just watch the Rebels in action. It’s a potent offense led by Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris, capable of putting up points on everyone. Ole Miss crushed Georgia 28-10 and scored 63 points on Arkansas, which held Tennessee to 14. The defense has NFL-caliber performers, especially along the line.
Fatal flaw: Not only do Mississippi’s three losses make it difficult to climb into the CFP, but it’s also who beat the Rebels. None of the three teams are ranked by the committee with LSU (7-4) posting the best record. Losing at home to Kentucky (4-7) is probably the kill shot.
Ole Miss’ loss to Florida last week dropped the Rebels’ Playoff chances to 9 percent, per The Athletic’s model. (Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)
No. 15 South Carolina (8-3)
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 18; Record vs. FBS winning teams: 4-3; Record vs. non-winning FBS teams: 3-0; Points for: 32.9; Points against: 18.2.
Case for: Of the 8-3 teams hovering in the SEC’s second tier, the Gamecocks won the important head-to-head battles against Texas A&M and Missouri. South Carolina has one of college football’s most dominant defensive lines with 39 sacks. Its offensive efficiency is impressive.
Fatal flaw: This is the season of “almosts” for South Carolina. Two touchdowns were called back against LSU because of penalties and a failed two-point conversion cost the Gamecocks an overtime opportunity against Alabama. Barring a chaotic scenario rivaling 2007, South Carolina “almost” will get into the CFP.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 33; Record vs. winning teams: 3-1; Record vs. non-winning teams: 6-1; Points for: 30.5; Points against: 22.8.
Case for: Arizona State has posted its two most impressive wins in the last two weeks, beating Kansas State 24-14 on the road before toppling BYU 28-23 at home. The Sun Devils, who are led by versatile running back Cam Skattebo, have churned out five wins by a touchdown or less.
Fatal flaw: The Sun Devils have a 7.7-point differential, which is by far the lowest of any potential at-large team. Their losses came against 7-4 Texas Tech and 5-6 Cincinnati, and they’ve played only four teams with winning records.
By the numbers – Sagarin SOS: 40; Record vs. winning teams: 4-1; Record vs. non-winning teams: 4-1; Points for: 31.4; Points against: 19.5.
Case for: The Cyclones are resilient, as demonstrated by three come-from-behind victories in the closing seconds. Iowa State has the Big 12’s best pass defense, which ranks third overall. Their receiving combination of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel has compiled nearly 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Fatal flaw: Iowa State steadily climbed the rankings until losing two straight to Texas Tech and Kansas (5-6). The Cyclones don’t own any Top 25 wins, and their depleted defense has given up more than 230 rushing yards in three of their last five games.
(Top photo: Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images))
As a lifelong fan of romantic comedies, my list of favorite “sweet” romances is extensive.
Not because I have a spice aversion — but because the rom-coms I love most, with that classic cinematic vibe, often come with fewer peppers on the spice scale.
Some people refer to these books as “closed door.” I prefer to think of them as “in the hall” romances (though that admittedly doesn’t roll off the tongue quite the same way). The reader is there for all the swoon, the burn and the banter — but when things head to the bedroom, the reader remains out in the hallway. With less focus on what happens inside the boudoir, all that juicy heightened tension and yearning really shine. Here are a few of my favorites.
SEEK THE TRAITOR’S SON, by Veronica Roth
I read Veronica Roth’s new novel for adults, “Seek the Traitor’s Son,” over one weekend and had a hard time putting it down, and not just because I was procrastinating on my house chores.
There’s much about the novel one would expect from Roth, the author of the Divergent series, one of the hottest dystopian young adult series of the 2010s. Thematically, the novels are similar. Like “Divergent,” this new book is also set in an alternate, dystopian version of our world; it is also packed with vivid, present-tense prose full of capitalized labels to let you know that something different is going on; and it also centers on a classic “Chosen One” who is burdened by the mantle of savior she carries.
These are classic tropes, but I, like many other genre fiction fans, enjoy that familiarity. Still, I’m always hoping for a subversion, a tornado twist that sucks me into imagination land.
In “Seek the Traitor’s Son,” our Chosen One is Elegy Ahn, the spare heir of the most powerful woman in Cedre. Elegy likes her life, even if it’s filled with danger. See, some time ago, a virus took over the world. The contagion is strange: Everyone who is infected dies, but 50 percent of the people who die come back to life with mysterious cognitive gifts.
After the outbreak, Earth split into two factions: The dominant Talusar, who worship the Fever, believe it is a divine gift, willingly infect themselves with it and consider anyone who does not submit to it a blasphemer; and Cedre, a small country made up of everyone who rejects the virus and the dogma around it. They are, naturally, at war.
Early in the book, Elegy, solidly on the Cedre side, and Rava Vidar, a brutal Talusar general, are summoned by an order of prophets who tell them: One of you will lead your people to victory over the other, and one of the deciding factors involves an unnamed man whom Elegy is prophesied to fall in love with.
Elegy doesn’t want this. But the prophecy spurs the Talusar into action, and so her mother assigns her a Talusaran refugee as a knight and forces her into the fray as the Hope of Cedre.
If that seems like a lot of setup, don’t worry. That’s just the first few chapters. Besides, if you know those dystopian novel tropes, you’ll get the hang of it. Roth gets through the world exposition quickly, and after a rather jarring time skip, the plot takes off, effectively and entertainingly driving readers to the novel’s exhilarating end.
The strength of “Seek the Traitor’s Son” is Roth’s character work. Elegy is a dynamic heroine. She has a lot to lose, and she leads with love, which is reflected in the intense grief she feels for the people she’s lost in the war and the life the prophecy took from her. It’s love that makes her stop running from her destiny and do what she thinks is right to save the people she has left.
Many authors isolate their characters to back them into bad decisions, so it’s refreshing that Roth has given Elegy a community to support her. Her sister Hela in particular is a treat. She’s refreshingly grounded, and often gives a much needed reprieve from the melodrama of the other characters’ lives. (She has an important subplot that has to do with a glowing alien plant, but the real reason you should pay attention to her is that she’s funny, loves her sister so much, has cool friends and listens to gay romance novels.) Hela and Elegy’s unwavering loyalty to each other casts a positive illumination on both characters.
My favorite character is Theren, Elegy’s knight, who is kind and empathetic to everyone but himself. As the obvious romantic lead, his character most diverges from genre standard because of the nuanced depiction of his trauma. He has been so broken by his experiences that he thinks what he can do with his body is all he can offer, and it’s worth nothing to him.
But like I said, I need subversion, and for all the creative world-building, I didn’t quite get it. The most distinct part of the novel was the setting and structure of alternate Earth, as well as the subcultures born from that setting. But after ripping through the novel, I found that those details didn’t provide nourishment for thought, and the general handwaviness of the technology and history of Earth was distractingly easy to nitpick.
I am a greedy reader, so I want my books to have everything: romance, action, an intellectual theme, novel ideas about the future, and character development. “Seek the Traitor’s Son” comes close. The novel is the first in a series, and I’m willing to hold my reservations until I read the next book. Elegy and Theren are worth it.
SEEK THE TRAITOR’S SON | By Veronica Roth | Tor | 416 pp. | $29
To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, “Revolution” is the timely theme of the Firsts London book fair, opening Thursday in the contemporary art spaces of the Saatchi Gallery.
The fair, running Thursday through Sunday, will feature 100 dealers’ booths on three floors of the neoclassical, early 19th-century building in the upscale Chelsea neighborhood and will take place at a moment of geopolitical convulsion, if not revolution. It also coincides with a profound change in reading habits: Fewer people read for pleasure, and when they do, more often it is on a screen. And yet some physical books are fetching record prices.
Why is that? Clues can be found at Firsts London, regarded as Britain’s pre-eminent fair devoted to collectible books, maps, manuscripts and ephemera. Dealers will be responding to the revolution theme by showing a curated selection of items that document political upheavals over the centuries.
While the organizers — members of the nonprofit Antiquarian Bookseller’s Association and the International League of Antiquarian Booksellers — have been eager to expand the theme to include material that throws light on revolutions in other realms such as science and social attitudes, the momentousness of the Declaration’s anniversary has spurred dealers to bring items with ties to 18th-century America.
The New York-based dealer James Cummins Bookseller, for instance, will be offering a 1775 London printing of Congress’s declaration of the “Causes and Necessity of Taking Up Arms” against the British authorities. Mostly written by John Dickinson and Thomas Jefferson and published just a year before the Declaration of Independence, the document represents a decisive moment in the colonies’ struggle for self-determination. It is priced at $22,500.
“We’re generalists. We’re bringing a bit of everything,” said Jeremy Markowitz, a specialist on American books at Cummins. “But this year, because of the anniversary, we’re bringing Americana that we otherwise wouldn’t have brought.”
The London dealer Shapero Rare Books will be showing a letter written in January 1797 by Thomas Paine, one of the most influential Founding Fathers, to his friend Col. John Fellows who had served with the American militia during the Revolutionary War. The text reiterates the views of Paine’s open letter to George Washington, urging him to retire from the presidency, fearing that the office might become hereditary. With an asking price of 95,000 pounds, or about $130,000. Paine’s letter to Fellows was written just weeks before Washington stood down in March at the end of his second term, a practice later enshrined in the 22nd Amendment limiting presidents to two terms.
Bernard Quaritch, another London bookseller, will be exhibiting a first edition in book form of “The Federalist Papers,” the celebrated collection of essays written in favor of the new Constitution by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay from 1787-1788. (These texts are mentioned in Lin-Manuel Miranda’s award-winning musical “Hamilton.”) In its original binding, with the pages uncut and largely unopened, this pioneering work of U.S. political philosophy is priced at £220,000.
The fair, like the United States, has gone through its own process of reinvention. It is the sixth annual edition of Firsts London, but its origins stretch from 1958, when its more traditional forerunner, the London International Antiquarian Book Fair, was founded.
The rebranded Firsts London was initially held at an exhibition space in Battersea Park in 2019, then transferred to the Saatchi in 2021. (There is also Firsts New York and Firsts Hong Kong.) Last year the event attracted an estimated 5,000 visitors over its four days, according to the organizers, and notable sales were made.
“Book fairs are now part of the ‘experience culture.’ In an age where everything is available at a click, fairs have to present themselves in a different way,” the exhibitor Daniel Crouch said.
Crouch will be showing two late-18th-century engraved maps printed on paper of New York by Bernard Ratzer, an engineer commissioned by the British to survey the city and its environs in 1766 and 1767 in case it became a battlefield. Ratzer’s large three-sheet map of the southern end of Manhattan and part of New Jersey and Brooklyn is priced at £240,000; his smaller map of south Manhattan at £25,000. Both date from January 1776, just six months before the Declaration of Independence was adopted in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776.
Other revolutions are also represented. The cover design of Millicent Fawcett ’s classic 1920 Suffragists tract, “The Women’s Victory — and After,” from the collection of the Senate House Library at the University of London, is the poster image for the event and the library is lending the entire pamphlet for display at the fair.
Scientific revolutions are represented by items like a 1976 first edition of Richard Dawkins’s book “The Selfish Gene,” offered at £2,250 by Ashton Rare Books of Market Harborough in Leicestershire, England. Fold the Corner Books in Surrey is offering a handwritten letter by an anonymous British spy describing scenes in Paris in 1791 during the French Revolution, and the dealers at Peter Harrington are bringing a Chinese parade banner from the Cultural Revolution. The banner and the letter are each priced at £750.
While the U.S. document’s anniversary has spurred many exhibitors to show rare 18th-century American items, the organizers stressed the fair’s wider remit.
“We wanted to do something related to our cousins over the water, but something a bit broader than just the American Revolution,” said Tom Lintern-Mole, the chairman of this year’s London fair.
“Revolution is a concept,” he said. “It encompasses everything to do with our world. Printing itself was a revolution. It helps foment revolutions. We like to think that books make history, as well as being artifacts of it.”
In terms of making sales, science fiction and science and fantasy are genres that many traders see as the key growth areas, because of, in great part, recent Hollywood adaptations. “Affluent younger collectors are moving the needle in the market,” said Pom Harrington, owner of Peter Harrington.
Cummins is offering a 1965 first edition of “Dune” for $16,500, while the London-based Foster Books will be asking £22,500 for a 1954-1955 three-volume first edition of “The Lord of the Rings” by J.R.R. Tolkien. It is sumptuously covered in red morocco leather by the binders at Bayntun Riviere.
And with the rise of tech, online sales have increasingly replaced high street transactions, resulting in many rare-book shops closing. Tom W. Ayling, who trades from his home in Oxfordshire and is exhibiting at Firsts London, is one of the most prominent of a cohort of young dealers who sell online and at fairs without the expense of a shop.
“I get almost all my customers through social media,” said Ayling, who has about 298,000 followers on Instagram alone.
Tolkien is a favorite subject for his engaging, regular video posts. Ayling will be bringing a copy of the author’s extremely rare collection of poems, “Songs for the Philologists.” Printed in 1936, only about 15 copies of the collection are known. Ayling is asking £65,000 for this one.
“I put as much content out there as I can to get people interested in book collecting,” Ayling said. “I want to widen the arcane world of book collecting to a mass audience.”
A mass audience collecting — let alone reading — books? That really would be a revolution.
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