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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

To offset gains that Donald J. Trump made in rural and suburban America in 2024, Kamala Harris needed to do better than Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s strong 2020 electoral performance in cities. But she ended up doing worse in urban America — getting 15 percent fewer votes than Mr. Biden in some cities. A New York Times analysis of precinct-level election results — the most detailed available publicly — across 11 cities shows how it happened.

In Atlanta and its suburbs, both candidates found new voters, but Ms. Harris’s gains in precincts where white voters were the largest racial or ethnic group were canceled out by losses elsewhere. Mr. Trump’s uptick in support from voters of color across Atlanta, along with improved performance in the state’s rural areas, was enough for him to win Georgia — a swing state he narrowly lost to Mr. Biden in 2020.

Chicago is emblematic of the chief problem the Harris campaign faced in urban areas — a big decline in votes in Democratic strongholds. Even though Ms. Harris won the city by a 58-point margin, she lost ground in nearly every precinct. She picked up just 127,000 votes in Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods, 47,000 fewer than Mr. Biden earned in 2020. Mr. Trump made small gains across the board, but Ms. Harris’s losses were much steeper.

In Wayne County, which includes Detroit, Ms. Harris struggled to capture the support of Arab-American voters, many of whom had been turned off by the Biden administration’s Middle East policies. In a swath of voting precincts spanning Dearborn and Hamtramck, which have the nation’s highest concentration of people of Arab ancestry, Mr. Trump picked up thousands of votes compared with 2020, while the Democratic Party lost an even bigger number. Countywide, precincts with high shares of Arab residents made up just 6 percent of the electorate but accounted for more than 40 percent of the decline in Democratic votes.

The story in Houston was more about Ms. Harris underperforming Mr. Biden’s 2020 vote totals than about Mr. Trump achieving sharp gains, especially in Latino neighborhoods and lower-income areas. Ms. Harris’s vote total was down 12 percent overall from Mr. Biden’s in 2020, and 28 percent in low-income neighborhoods where Latino voters are the largest group.

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In this rapidly growing area, red shifts were most evident in Latino neighborhoods. While Ms. Harris matched Mr. Biden’s vote total overall, Mr. Trump made significant gains throughout the area.

Mr. Trump was already popular with the county’s large Cuban American population, but in this election, his support surged with Latino voters from other groups as well. He received 20 percent more total votes in Latino neighborhoods where Cubans are not the predominant Latino group, like those with large populations of Nicaraguans or Colombians. This helped him flip Miami-Dade County for the first time since 1988, further cementing Florida as a decisively red state.

Mr. Trump saw gains on the city’s South Side, where there are Latino precincts with large Mexican populations, and his increased support coincided with Ms. Harris’s losses there. Ms. Harris picked up votes in some white neighborhoods, but those gains were erased by the losses elsewhere, allowing Mr. Trump to cut into the Democratic margin and flip the state back to the Republican column.

Latino neighborhoods accounted for nearly half of Mr. Trump’s total gains in his home city compared with 2020. While Ms. Harris won these precincts by a 40-point margin, that fell short of Mr. Biden’s 66-point margin in 2020. In a city with a diverse population of Latinos, Mr. Trump’s vote share grew among all of them — Puerto Rican neighborhoods, Dominican neighborhoods and Mexican neighborhoods alike.

Ms. Harris outperformed Mr. Biden in some parts of the city — especially in white precincts near the downtown area. White voters were the largest racial or ethnic group in 24 of the 25 precincts where she gained the most votes. But Ms. Harris lost some support in Latino and Black neighborhoods elsewhere in the city, and the Democratic margin fell to 59 points, from 64 points in 2020.

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More than half of the Democratic vote decline occurred in Latino neighborhoods, even though these precincts accounted for just 16 percent of the overall vote total. Ms. Harris still won Latino neighborhoods by 23 points, but it was a 12-point drop from the 2020 margin of Mr. Biden, who narrowly won Arizona, a Republican stronghold won only twice by Democrats since 1952.

Even this city — known for its liberalism and its importance to Ms. Harris’s career — swung toward Mr. Trump. Ms. Harris’s losses were especially noticeable in the city’s Asian neighborhoods, which are predominantly Chinese but include thousands of voters from other groups. Though Ms. Harris still won the city by a 68-point margin, Mr. Trump gained more than 6,000 votes on top of her vote losses.

Methodology

The 2024 precinct results are from: Georgia’s Secretary of State (Atlanta); Chicago’s Board of Election Commissioners; Wayne County Clerk (Detroit); Harris County Clerk (Houston); Clark County Election Department (Las Vegas); Miami-Dade County’s Supervisor of Elections (Miami); Milwaukee County Clerk; New York City Board of Elections; Philadelphia City Commissioners; Maricopa County Recorder’s Office (Phoenix); San Francisco’s Department of Elections (San Francisco). The 2024 precinct boundary files are from state and local officials.

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For Milwaukee’s 2020 precinct results, The Times used a data set by John Johnson, a research fellow in the Marquette Law School Lubar Center, based on the county clerk and the Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau. For New York City, estimates for 2020 election results within 2024 precinct boundaries are from an analysis by the Center for Urban Research at CUNY.

For all other areas, the 2020 precinct results are from the Voting and Election Science Team. In these areas, The Times used data from the 2020 decennial census to create a population-weighted estimate of the 2020 vote within 2024 precinct boundaries. These estimates were used to calculate the change in the number of votes and the shift in margin for each candidate in 2024, compared with 2020.

The city of Detroit reports its absentee votes in counting boards, which often span multiple precincts. For the 2024 data, The Times obtained a list of precincts that correspond to each counting board from the Detroit City Clerk, and precinct results were aggregated into Counting Boards. For 2020, the list of precincts that correspond to each counting board was obtained from OpenElections.

Precinct-level estimates for income and education, as well as broad groupings of race and ethnicity, are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018-22 American Community Survey and information from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor. The Times calculated these statistics, which approximate the average demographics of the electorate in a given precinct, by obtaining the demographics of each registered voter’s census block group and aggregating this data to the precinct level.

Precincts are listed as white, Black, Asian or Latino if that group is the most populous. Some precincts are further identified by a subgroup. For example, a precinct is identified as Chinese if a majority of people in the precinct are Asian, and Chinese are the most populous of the Asian subgroups and also represent at least 25 percent of the neighborhood’s population.

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Likewise, Arab precincts in Wayne County were selected if at least 25 percent of residents identified as a member of an Arab ancestry group and Arab ancestry is more common than any other major ancestry group.

The arrow maps showing the shift in margin from 2020 to 2024 exclude precincts where fewer than 100 votes were cast in 2024 across the two candidates.

Changes in the number of ballots cast in a given area could be attributed to many factors, including changes in population. Some cities, like Milwaukee and Philadelphia, have experienced population decline since 2020, while others such as Las Vegas and Phoenix have seen sharp growth. Because it is difficult to estimate with precision the changes in voter population at the precinct level over the years, The Times analysis of turnout examines total votes cast.

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Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman hires ex-DeepMind staff for AI health unit

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Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman hires ex-DeepMind staff for AI health unit

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Microsoft’s artificial intelligence head Mustafa Suleyman is building a new team focused on consumer health by hiring staff from a similar unit he once led at Google DeepMind, as the rival companies race to create lucrative applications from the cutting-edge technology.

Suleyman, a British entrepreneur who co-founded DeepMind in 2010, has hired Dominic King, the former head of DeepMind’s health unit and a UK-trained surgeon, as vice-president of Microsoft AI’s new London-based health team.

He has also poached Christopher Kelly, a clinical research scientist at DeepMind and a neonatal intensive care doctor at Evelina Children’s Hospital in London, as well as two others from his time at the AI start-up.

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Microsoft’s new consumer AI health division comes as tech groups rush to turn generative AI into a staple of everyday life, in a bid to drive revenues from the fast-developing technology. Sir Demis Hassabis, co-founder and chief executive of DeepMind, is also focused on healthcare, such as leading spin-off AI group Isomorphic Labs, which is working on drug discovery.

Health has become one of the growth areas in the AI boom. Consumers have often turned to the web for health-related queries, and a Deloitte survey this year found that 48 per cent of respondents asked generative AI chatbots such as ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot or Claude health-focused questions.

These include questions about specific health conditions, symptoms and mental health. Microsoft AI’s health unit will focus on these types of consumer health applications using generative AI.

The US tech group, which hired Suleyman earlier this year, confirmed the creation of its new unit. “In our mission to inform, support and empower everyone with responsible AI, health is a critical use case,” said Microsoft. “We continue to hire top talent in support of these efforts.”

Google DeepMind’s health operation, founded by Suleyman, started in 2016 and grew to a team of more than 100 people based in London. The unit had signed a five-year partnership with 10 UK NHS hospitals to process the medical data of 1.6mn patients, and launched an app to monitor patients’ vital signs.

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However, DeepMind was later embroiled in controversy over its work for the UK health sector amid concerns about the security of patient data. This led to Suleyman’s unit being spun off in 2019 by parent company Alphabet into a Google unit in California headed by David Feinberg, the former chief executive of Geisinger, one of the US’s largest private health groups.

Suleyman left DeepMind that same year, taking up a new policy role at Google’s California headquarters before leaving in 2022 to do a stint as a venture investor. He later created AI start-up Inflection.

In March, Microsoft hired Suleyman from Inflection as well as most of its staff, including Karén Simonyan, co-founder and chief scientist of Inflection, and a former DeepMind researcher himself.

Other recent hires for Microsoft’s AI health unit include Peter Hames, the former chief executive of UK digital health start-up Big Health and Bay Gross, co-founder of digital healthcare provider Cityblock Health.

As part of his broader team, Suleyman has also employed former DeepMind colleagues Nando de Freitas and Trevor Back, who led the start-up’s health research team. However, both de Freitas and Back will not work specifically on Microsoft’s health applications.

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Judge Blocks The Onion's Bid to Take Over Alex Jones' Infowars

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Judge Blocks The Onion's Bid to Take Over Alex Jones' Infowars

A Texas bankruptcy court ruled on Tuesday that The Onion‘s acquisition of Alex Jones‘ disinformation empire, Infowars, could not move forward, dealing a blow to the satirical newspaper. The most surreal media merger in recent memory is now set to disintegrate — at least for now — after almost a month of legal wrangling.

“I don’t think it’s enough money,” U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Lopez wrote in a late-night decision, per NBC News. “I’m going to not approve the sale.” Judge Lopez has left it up to trustee Christopher Murray to decide what to do next. It’s possible that there could be another auction, in which the Onion could once again place bid for the embattled conspiracy theorist’s publication. He could also decide to reexamine the Jones-associated company First United American, which offered a revised bid that has not yet been disclosed, per the AP.

In 2022, Jones was ordered to pay a total of nearly $1.5 billion in civil damages to the families of victims in the deadly 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newton, Connecticut. Jones had falsely and repeatedly claimed on Infowars that the massacre was a hoax, smearing parents of children who were killed as “crisis actors” — incendiary attacks that saw the grieving families subjected to years of harassment and intimidation by viewers who believed Jones’ lies. In the course of multiple defamation lawsuits brought against him and Infowars’ parent company, Free Speech Systems, Jones testified that, contrary to his earlier statements, the Sandy Hook shooting was “100 percent real.”

This year, having failed to pay what he owed the victims’ families, Jones asked a judge to convert his personal bankruptcy to a Chapter 7 to liquidate his assets, including the Infowars brand, in order to at least partially cover the massive settlement. The court ruled in September that he could put Free Speech Systems up for auction.

The process took a surprising turn in November, when The Onion revealed that it had placed the winning bid in the court-ordered auction. It was another attention-grabbing stunt for the beloved parody publisher, which had just three months earlier revived its print edition under new parent company Global Tetrahedron, a firm with a jokingly ominous name created to acquire the title from its previous owner in April, with former NBC News reporter Ben Collins stepping in as CEO of the paper. The Onion announced that it would relaunch Infowars and its social channels in January 2025 as sources of irreverent comedy rather than paranoiac diatribes, vowing “to end Infowars’ relentless barrage of disinformation for the sake of selling supplements and replace it with The Onion’s relentless barrage of humor for good.” The brand also partnered with the gun control activism nonprofit Everytown for Gun Safety on an ad deal for the revamped Infowars.

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Jones was apoplectic over the sale and aired a broadcast that saw him raving that “imperial troops” were storming his studio to seize it from him. That didn’t happen, and a company with links to the right-wing firebrand soon mounted a legal challenge to the takeover: First American United Companies, affiliated with Jones’ dietary supplements business, alleged that The Onion had bid only $1.75 million for Infowars, compared to its offer of $3.5 million, and had therefore won the auction through collusion and fraud. Murray, the bankruptcy trustee overseeing the liquidation of Free Speech Systems, said the First American bid was actually “inferior,” as the total value of The Onion‘s deal stood at $7 million — because most of the Sandy Hook families had agreed to receive a percentage of revenues from an Onion-owned Infowars instead of cash from the sale itself. (These were the only two sealed bids in the auction.)

Meanwhile, Elon Musk — who a year ago made the controversial decision to reinstate Jones’ account on X, formerly Twitter, despite his permanent suspensions from nearly every other social media platform — also took action against the purchase. In legal objection to the sale filed by X in November, the company pointed out that according to its user agreement, they are the owner of Jones’ and Infowars’ accounts on the site, and have no obligation to turn them over to an entity that purchases Free Speech Systems’ collective assets. The unusually aggressive move was a stark reminder that users of such websites do not have ultimate control of their profiles, and threw a potential wrench in The Onion‘s scheme to turn Jones’ digital footprint into a mockery of everything he stands for.

Murray testified on Tuesday before Judge Lopez of the U.S. District and Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of Texas that The Onion‘s offer should be approved over First American’s. In his own testimony, auctioneer Jeff Tanenbaum defended the sale process when Jones’ lawyers pressed him over not holding a live auction.

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Jones himself did not attend court this week but used his show to continue complaining about the prospect of The Onion wresting control of his once lucrative conspiracy theory factory. “I can’t imagine the judge would certify this fraud,” he told his audience on Tuesday. “I mean it’s head-spinning the stuff they did and what they claimed.”

Now that the judge has spoken, it’s up to Christopher Murray to decide what happens next — and whether the cathartic punchline of the Sandy Hook families having some say over Infowars’ fate could finally come to pass.

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Israel wants to create ‘sterile’ zone in Syria, says defence minister

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Israel wants to create ‘sterile’ zone in Syria, says defence minister

Israel’s defence minister said the country wanted to create a “sterile defensive area” inside Syria after seizing territory and pounding military targets in the country following the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

In recent days, Israeli ground forces have crossed the border from the occupied Golan Heights into a previously demilitarised buffer zone of more than 200 sq km inside Syria, seizing abandoned Syrian army positions.

Israel Katz said on Tuesday that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had ordered the military “to establish a sterile defensive area free of weapons and terror threats in southern Syria” without a permanent Israeli presence.

His comments came after Israel launched air strikes across Syria, with the Israeli military saying it had struck most of the “strategic weapons stockpiles” in the Arab state.

Over the past 48 hours, Israeli fighter jets carried out more than 350 aerial strikes, while war ships struck Syrian naval bases at Al-Bayda and Latakia ports.

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Katz said that Israel had “destroyed” Syria’s modest navy “with great success”.

Israel’s strikes and incursions into Syria have been condemned internationally. Turkey’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday that “Israel is again displaying its occupier mentality”.

Geir Pedersen, UN envoy to Syria, warned that Israel risked damaging the chances of a peaceful transition in the fragile state.

“We need to see a stop to the Israeli attacks,” Pedersen said. “It’s extremely important that we don’t see any action from any international actor that destroys the possibility for this transformation in Syria to take place.”

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On Tuesday, IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee denied reports that the military had advanced towards the Syrian capital, Damascus, saying its troops “are present inside the buffer zone and at defensive points close to the border in order to protect the Israeli border”.

However, another Israeli military spokesperson acknowledged that while most of the ground force operations were inside the buffer zone, some troops had operated “beyond” the area.

Israel occupied most of the Golan Heights during the six-day war in 1967, but its claim over the land is not internationally recognised. Israeli ground troops last entered Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

Israel has for more than a decade launched air strikes in Syria, targeting Iranian-affiliated weapons sites. Iran and the militant groups it supports, including the Lebanese movement Hizbollah, deployed in Syria to back the Assad regime during the country’s civil war.

Netanyahu said in a press conference on Monday night that “control on the Golan Heights ensures our security; it ensures our sovereignty”.

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“The Golan Heights will be an inseparable part of the state of Israel forever,” he added.

Israeli officials said on Monday that air strikes had hit targets including remnants of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles.

A person familiar with developments in Syria said that Israel had also struck what was left of the Syrian air force, including grounded planes and helicopters.

The US, Israel’s biggest ally, backed its actions in Syria, describing the operations as “exigent operations to eliminate what they believe are limited threats”.

“We certainly recognise that they live in a tough neighbourhood and they have, as always, the right to defend themselves,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday.

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The campaign came as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist rebel faction that led the offensive that ousted Assad, seeks to consolidate control of Syria amid fears the change of regime could fuel regional instability.

Mohamed al-Bashir, head of the Syrian Salvation Government, HTS’s de facto civilian administration in the northwestern province of Idlib, announced he would be leading a temporary caretaker government for all of Syria that would “maybe” end on March 1 next year.

The toppling of the Assad regime, which ruled Syria for 50 years, capped a lightning offensive by HTS that swept across the country in under a fortnight.

As HTS took control of Damascus on Sunday, Assad escaped to Russia, the country that backed him in Syria’s 13-year civil war.

HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani pledged in a statement published on rebel-run social media channels to hold to account “the criminals, murderers and army and security officers involved in torture of the Syrian people”.

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HTS has issued a general amnesty for conscripted members of the Assad military, while state bodies have ordered a resumption of public services and activity in the economically vital oil sector.

Fighters and Syrian civilians have also opened the Assad regime’s notorious prisons, releasing captives including political prisoners who had been incarcerated for decades and uncovering evidence of torture.

Traffic began picking up on the streets of Damascus on Tuesday as residents tentatively began returning to a semblance of normal life, however. Some shops and restaurants reopened and government employees began going back to work.

Police from the Syrian Salvation Government were directing traffic in the city, while rebel fighters helped guard government ministries, some of which were ransacked and broken into during the rebel offensive. 

Additional reporting by Richard Salame in Beirut and Felicia Schwartz in Washington

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Cartography by Steven Bernard

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