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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

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Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

To offset gains that Donald J. Trump made in rural and suburban America in 2024, Kamala Harris needed to do better than Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s strong 2020 electoral performance in cities. But she ended up doing worse in urban America — getting 15 percent fewer votes than Mr. Biden in some cities. A New York Times analysis of precinct-level election results — the most detailed available publicly — across 11 cities shows how it happened.

In Atlanta and its suburbs, both candidates found new voters, but Ms. Harris’s gains in precincts where white voters were the largest racial or ethnic group were canceled out by losses elsewhere. Mr. Trump’s uptick in support from voters of color across Atlanta, along with improved performance in the state’s rural areas, was enough for him to win Georgia — a swing state he narrowly lost to Mr. Biden in 2020.

Chicago is emblematic of the chief problem the Harris campaign faced in urban areas — a big decline in votes in Democratic strongholds. Even though Ms. Harris won the city by a 58-point margin, she lost ground in nearly every precinct. She picked up just 127,000 votes in Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods, 47,000 fewer than Mr. Biden earned in 2020. Mr. Trump made small gains across the board, but Ms. Harris’s losses were much steeper.

In Wayne County, which includes Detroit, Ms. Harris struggled to capture the support of Arab-American voters, many of whom had been turned off by the Biden administration’s Middle East policies. In a swath of voting precincts spanning Dearborn and Hamtramck, which have the nation’s highest concentration of people of Arab ancestry, Mr. Trump picked up thousands of votes compared with 2020, while the Democratic Party lost an even bigger number. Countywide, precincts with high shares of Arab residents made up just 6 percent of the electorate but accounted for more than 40 percent of the decline in Democratic votes.

The story in Houston was more about Ms. Harris underperforming Mr. Biden’s 2020 vote totals than about Mr. Trump achieving sharp gains, especially in Latino neighborhoods and lower-income areas. Ms. Harris’s vote total was down 12 percent overall from Mr. Biden’s in 2020, and 28 percent in low-income neighborhoods where Latino voters are the largest group.

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In this rapidly growing area, red shifts were most evident in Latino neighborhoods. While Ms. Harris matched Mr. Biden’s vote total overall, Mr. Trump made significant gains throughout the area.

Mr. Trump was already popular with the county’s large Cuban American population, but in this election, his support surged with Latino voters from other groups as well. He received 20 percent more total votes in Latino neighborhoods where Cubans are not the predominant Latino group, like those with large populations of Nicaraguans or Colombians. This helped him flip Miami-Dade County for the first time since 1988, further cementing Florida as a decisively red state.

Mr. Trump saw gains on the city’s South Side, where there are Latino precincts with large Mexican populations, and his increased support coincided with Ms. Harris’s losses there. Ms. Harris picked up votes in some white neighborhoods, but those gains were erased by the losses elsewhere, allowing Mr. Trump to cut into the Democratic margin and flip the state back to the Republican column.

Latino neighborhoods accounted for nearly half of Mr. Trump’s total gains in his home city compared with 2020. While Ms. Harris won these precincts by a 40-point margin, that fell short of Mr. Biden’s 66-point margin in 2020. In a city with a diverse population of Latinos, Mr. Trump’s vote share grew among all of them — Puerto Rican neighborhoods, Dominican neighborhoods and Mexican neighborhoods alike.

Ms. Harris outperformed Mr. Biden in some parts of the city — especially in white precincts near the downtown area. White voters were the largest racial or ethnic group in 24 of the 25 precincts where she gained the most votes. But Ms. Harris lost some support in Latino and Black neighborhoods elsewhere in the city, and the Democratic margin fell to 59 points, from 64 points in 2020.

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More than half of the Democratic vote decline occurred in Latino neighborhoods, even though these precincts accounted for just 16 percent of the overall vote total. Ms. Harris still won Latino neighborhoods by 23 points, but it was a 12-point drop from the 2020 margin of Mr. Biden, who narrowly won Arizona, a Republican stronghold won only twice by Democrats since 1952.

Even this city — known for its liberalism and its importance to Ms. Harris’s career — swung toward Mr. Trump. Ms. Harris’s losses were especially noticeable in the city’s Asian neighborhoods, which are predominantly Chinese but include thousands of voters from other groups. Though Ms. Harris still won the city by a 68-point margin, Mr. Trump gained more than 6,000 votes on top of her vote losses.

Methodology

The 2024 precinct results are from: Georgia’s Secretary of State (Atlanta); Chicago’s Board of Election Commissioners; Wayne County Clerk (Detroit); Harris County Clerk (Houston); Clark County Election Department (Las Vegas); Miami-Dade County’s Supervisor of Elections (Miami); Milwaukee County Clerk; New York City Board of Elections; Philadelphia City Commissioners; Maricopa County Recorder’s Office (Phoenix); San Francisco’s Department of Elections (San Francisco). The 2024 precinct boundary files are from state and local officials.

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For Milwaukee’s 2020 precinct results, The Times used a data set by John Johnson, a research fellow in the Marquette Law School Lubar Center, based on the county clerk and the Wisconsin Legislative Technology Services Bureau. For New York City, estimates for 2020 election results within 2024 precinct boundaries are from an analysis by the Center for Urban Research at CUNY.

For all other areas, the 2020 precinct results are from the Voting and Election Science Team. In these areas, The Times used data from the 2020 decennial census to create a population-weighted estimate of the 2020 vote within 2024 precinct boundaries. These estimates were used to calculate the change in the number of votes and the shift in margin for each candidate in 2024, compared with 2020.

The city of Detroit reports its absentee votes in counting boards, which often span multiple precincts. For the 2024 data, The Times obtained a list of precincts that correspond to each counting board from the Detroit City Clerk, and precinct results were aggregated into Counting Boards. For 2020, the list of precincts that correspond to each counting board was obtained from OpenElections.

Precinct-level estimates for income and education, as well as broad groupings of race and ethnicity, are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018-22 American Community Survey and information from L2, a nonpartisan voter data vendor. The Times calculated these statistics, which approximate the average demographics of the electorate in a given precinct, by obtaining the demographics of each registered voter’s census block group and aggregating this data to the precinct level.

Precincts are listed as white, Black, Asian or Latino if that group is the most populous. Some precincts are further identified by a subgroup. For example, a precinct is identified as Chinese if a majority of people in the precinct are Asian, and Chinese are the most populous of the Asian subgroups and also represent at least 25 percent of the neighborhood’s population.

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Likewise, Arab precincts in Wayne County were selected if at least 25 percent of residents identified as a member of an Arab ancestry group and Arab ancestry is more common than any other major ancestry group.

The arrow maps showing the shift in margin from 2020 to 2024 exclude precincts where fewer than 100 votes were cast in 2024 across the two candidates.

Changes in the number of ballots cast in a given area could be attributed to many factors, including changes in population. Some cities, like Milwaukee and Philadelphia, have experienced population decline since 2020, while others such as Las Vegas and Phoenix have seen sharp growth. Because it is difficult to estimate with precision the changes in voter population at the precinct level over the years, The Times analysis of turnout examines total votes cast.

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The New Harvard Trend? Getting Punched in the Face.

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The New Harvard Trend? Getting Punched in the Face.

Her opponent at the Babson fight night was her Harvard teammate Muskaan Sandhu, 18, a freshman, who had sparred before. No one likes getting hit, Ms. Sandhu said, but she liked learning that she could take a punch.

It made her feel she could do anything. “After the fight, I never felt so capable in my life,” she said.

Modern life — lived on screens or amid the constant distraction of screens — can feel isolating. She sees boxing as a way to engage with people. “You feel really human,” she said. “You feel a connection with the person you’re fighting. Like we’re in this together.”

Mr. Lake said he intended for Harvard’s club to join the National Collegiate Boxing Association, a nonprofit that provides structure and safety rules. The N.C.B.A. represents about 840 athletes, an 18 percent increase from a year ago, said the group’s president, George Chamberlain, who coaches the University of Iowa’s boxing club.

The well-attended fight night at Babson, which also included boxers from Brandeis University, reflected the growing interest.

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Before it began, a volunteer passed out waiver documents. Most of the boxers immediately flipped to the end and signed. Mr. Jiang, of Harvard, appeared to be the only one who read it.

He was a mixed martial arts fan who resolved to try a combat sport in college. “I like the technique side of it,” Mr. Jiang said of boxing, “the science behind the sport.”

His fight plan, he explained, was to control the action with his jab and occasionally throw the right hand, to maintain good defense and try to tire out his opponent.

It seemed a solid strategy — though, as the heavyweight Mike Tyson famously noted, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

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Frontier Airlines plane hits person on runway during takeoff at Denver airport

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Frontier Airlines plane hits person on runway during takeoff at Denver airport

A Frontier Airlines plane hit a person on the runway of Denver’s international airport during takeoff, sparking an engine fire and forcing passengers to evacuate, authorities said.

The plane, headed to Los Angeles, “reported striking a pedestrian during takeoff” at about 11.19pm on Friday, the Denver airport’s official X account wrote.

Neither the airport nor the airline has disclosed the person’s condition.

“We’re stopping on the runway,” the pilot of the plane involved told the control tower at one point, according to the site ATC.com. “We just hit somebody. We have an engine fire.”

The pilot told the air traffic controller they have “231 souls” on board – and that an “individual was walking across the runway”.

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The air traffic controller responded that they were “rolling the trucks now” before the pilot told the tower they “have smoke in the aircraft”.

“We are going to evacuate on the runway,” the pilot added.

Frontier Airlines said in a statement that flight 4345 was the one involved in the collision – and that “smoke was reported in the cabin and the pilots aborted takeoff”. It was not clear whether the smoke was linked to the crash with the person.

The plane, an Airbus A321, “was carrying 224 passengers and seven crew members”, the airline said. “We are investigating this incident and gathering more information in coordination with the airport and other safety authorities.”

Passengers were then evacuated using slides, and the emergency crew bused them to the terminal.

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Denver’s airport said the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) had been notified and that runway 17L – where the incident took place – will remain closed while an investigation is conducted.

Friday’s episode at Denver’s airport came one day after a Delta Airline employee died on Thursday night at Orlando’s international airport when a vehicle struck a jet bridge next to an airplane with passengers onboard, as the local news outlet WESH reported.

Meanwhile, on 3 May, a United Airlines plane arriving in Newark, New Jersey, from Venice, Italy, clipped a delivery truck and a light pole, which in turn struck a Jeep. Only the delivery truck driver was injured, but the plane was damaged extensively and the NTSB classified the case as an accident while also opening an investigation.

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Video: How Trump Is Prioritizing White People as Refugees

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Video: How Trump Is Prioritizing White People as Refugees

new video loaded: How Trump Is Prioritizing White People as Refugees

President Trump has upended the U.S. refugee program to prioritize mainly white Afrikaners. Our White House correspondent Zolan Kanno-Youngs reports he is now is now considering doubling the amount he allows into the country.

By Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Gilad Thaler, Stephanie Swart, Jon Miller and Whitney Shefte

May 8, 2026

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