Polls have suggested for months that former President Trump could lose support among some Republicans if he is convicted of a crime. But if history is any guide, many of those supporters will stick with him.

A Manhattan jury on Wednesday began deliberating 34 counts of falsifying business records related to his attempt to influence the 2016 campaign by concealing a payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels.

What do the polls say?

An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted this month found that 16% of Trump’s supporters would reconsider their support while 4% would leave him altogether if he is convicted of a felony.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of seven swing states in January found 9% of Republican-leaning voters would be somewhat unwilling to vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime, while 14% of those voters said they would be very unwilling to vote for him.

Will those numbers hold up?

Potential defectors in the ABC poll left themselves wiggle room by saying they would “reconsider” support rather than rule it out completely. And time usually helps Trump recapture his base after a scandal as he and other Republicans argue that the process is rigged or the alternative to Trump is worse.

Notice that, although the questions differed, his numbers look better in the May ABC poll than they did in the January Bloomberg poll, when 14% of Republicans were more willing to cast Trump off, saying they would be “very unwilling” to back him in the case of a conviction.

Will people who leave Trump switch to President Biden?

A USA Today/Suffolk poll in March found 14% of Trump supporters said they would leave him if he is convicted. But less than 1% would move to Biden. The biggest chunk, 7.5%, said they would move to a third party.

That could still help Biden indirectly because it would erode Trump’s margins if it holds up, according to David Paleologos, who directs the Suffolk poll.

How has Trump prepared his supporters for a conviction?

Trump has been seeding the ground with his supporters for a possible conviction for months, using two primary tools. First, he has summoned a chorus of party bigwigs to the courtroom, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, to parrot his protestations and signal loyalty at the highest reaches of the Republican Party, a technique he has used with prior scandals. Second, he has continually criticized the judge and prosecutor and, briefly, even the jury to undermine the process and manage expectations that he might be convicted.

“Mother Teresa could not beat these charges,” Trump said Wednesday.

The approach has helped Trump politically. Just 7% of Republicans think he is getting a fair trial, compared with 76% of Democrats, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll conducted this month.

Haven’t we seen this movie before?

Yes. Trump looked doomed after the “Access Hollywood” tape became public in October 2016, so much so that he is now being accused of concealing the payment to keep Daniels quiet about an alleged affair.

But party leaders and voters in his base were able to move on by concluding that it was locker room talk or that the alternative, Hillary Clinton, was a worse choice.

A similar dynamic played out after the Jan. 6 insurrection. Party leaders blamed Trump for what they characterized as a dark day in history in the immediate aftermath. But he escaped conviction in the Senate, with help from Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, and his support among GOP voters eventually rebounded.

More than half of Republicans (51%) disapproved strongly of the actions of those who forced their way into the Capitol in a January 2021 CBS/YouGov poll. Three years later, only 32% strongly disapproved of their actions, according to another CBS poll. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans also supported pardons for those convicted of crimes related to the insurrection in the 2024 poll.

So could a conviction affect the election?

Maybe. If Trump loses in court, Biden and the rest of the country can call him a convicted felon from now until November.

And even a small number of Republicans and undecided voters can swing an election that is expected to be extremely close. The USA Today/Suffolk poll found independent voters were divided evenly, 37% to 37%, on whether Trump’s trial is fair or not, leaving more room for at least some voters to be swayed by a verdict.

“In a vacuum, this verdict could continue right through the election because it will be a conviction. It will be historical,” said Paleologos.

But at some point, other issues like the economy could crowd it out and it could feel to some voters like old news, he said.

The most valuable resource for any presidential campaign is a candidate’s time. That has never been more true than in the contest between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, whose rematch is testing their ability to make the traditional appearances on the trail that voters have come to expect.

Mr. Trump’s campaign has been hampered by his required presence at his New York hush-money trial. Mr. Biden has been forced to juggle campaign visits with trying to manage two wars. And both men face competing interests as they look to remain in the public eye, visit the battleground states, map out competing agendas and raise money for what is expected to be one of the most expensive races ever.

Our reporters are cataloging the candidates’ public events, speeches, court appearances, fund-raisers,and interviews. What emerges is a window into the decision-making and strategy of the two campaigns.

Mr. Trump’s schedule largely reflects his court dates, while Mr. Biden’s is a mix of public appearances and fund-raisers.

For obvious reasons, Mr. Biden’s appearances and events are largely in Washington, while Trump’s are mostly in New York. Mr. Biden has also focused on attending fund-raisers in West Coast states like California and Washington.

Day by day

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly announced Wednesday that she will call a special legislative session on tax cuts beginning June 18.

The move comes after the Democratic governor vetoed three Republican plans to cut taxes this year, setting up a high-stakes election-year tussle with the GOP-controlled Kansas Legislature.

“I am committed to working with the Legislature to deliver responsible, sustainable tax cuts for all Kansans,” Kelly said in a statement. “A special session provides the opportunity for bipartisan collaboration on comprehensive tax relief that does not threaten Kansas’ solid fiscal foundation. By working together, we can swiftly come to a compromise to put more money back into Kansans’ pockets.”

KANSAS BILL CRACKING DOWN ON FOREIGN LAND OWNERSHIP VETOED BY DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR

Lawmakers this month sent Kelly a proposal to cut income, sales and property taxes by a total of $1.45 billion or more over three years. She vetoed the measure after the Legislature adjourned, blocking lawmakers from attempting to override her.

Kelly and Republican leaders have agreed on eliminating state income taxes on retirees’ Social Security benefits, which kick in when they earn $75,000 a year. They also agree on reducing a state property tax for schools and eliminating the state’s already set-to-expire 2% sales tax on groceries six months early, on July 1.

But almost half of the cuts in the latest bill were tied to changes in the personal income tax. The state’s highest tax rate would have been 5.57%, instead of the current 5.7%.

GOP leaders have grown increasingly frustrated as they’ve made what they see as major concessions, including giving up on moving Kansas from three personal income tax rates to one.

All 40 Senate seats and 125 House seats are on the ballot in this year’s elections, and Democrats hope to break the Republican supermajorities in both chambers. Both parties believe voters will be upset if there is no broad tax relief after surplus funds piled up in the state’s coffers.