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Iowa expectations: Trump downplays whether he'll top 50% in Monday night's GOP presidential caucuses

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Iowa expectations: Trump downplays whether he'll top 50% in Monday night's GOP presidential caucuses

DES MOINES, IA – Donald Trump is confident he’ll do “very well” in Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, which lead off the 2024 Republican presidential nominating calendar.

But the former president isn’t ready to make a prediction on if he’ll top 50%.

As he left his hotel in Des Moines on Sunday, Trump was asked by Fox News’ James Levinson about whether he would receive more than 50 % of the vote in the caucuses.

“I don’t know, I think we are doing very well,” Trump answered. The former president is the commanding front-runner in the latest polls in Iowa as well as in national surveys in the GOP presidential nomination race as he makes his third straight White House run.

WHAT THE FINAL POLL BEFORE MONDAY’S IOWA GOP PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUSES SHOWS

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Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa, Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Trump grabbed 50% support, or higher, in a slew of polls over the past month in Iowa. And he stood at 48% support in the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom/NBC News poll of likely Republican caucusgoers was released Saturday night. His closest rivals – former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – stood at 20% and 16% in the new survey.

The closely watched and highly anticipated survey, conducted by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, has a well-earned tradition of accuracy in past GOP presidential caucuses, and is considered by many as the gold standard in Iowa polling.

DESANTIS BETS BIG ON IOWA – WILL IT PAY OFF ?

DeSantis campaign manager James Uthmeier, in a Sunday appearance on Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom,” argued that “expectations are high for Trump…he’s got to perform. If he gets less than half the vote, more people voting against him than for him. I think that’s, you know, setting up doom down the road.”

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And Haley, in an interview on the same program, noted that people will be looking to see if Trump “is falling below 50%.”

Longtime Republican strategist David Kochel, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns and statewide contests in Iowa, told Fox News “there are two campaigns going on in Iowa right now.”

“One is Trump vs. his expectations and the other one is Haley vs. DeSantis to see who gets the right to take on Trump one-on-one,” noted Kochel, who remains neutral in the Republican presidential caucuses.

Trump made history last year as the first former or current president to be indicted for a crime, but his four indictments, including charges he tried to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss, have only fueled his support among Republican voters.

HALEY KNOCKS MEDIA EXPECTATIONS BUT LOOKS TO ‘BIG SHOWING’ IN IOWA

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But Trump and his campaign have been attempting to downplay the high expectations he faces in Iowa.

“No one has ever won the Iowa caucus by more than 12%,” Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita told Fox News Digital on Saturday. “I think the public polls are a little rich.”

Trump, speaking with reporters on Sunday, took aim at media attention over Iowa expectations.

“There seems to be something about 50% now. It doesn’t matter,” Trump argued. “I think they’re doing it so that they can set a high expectation. So if we end up with 49%, which would be about 25 points bigger than anyone else ever got. They can say he had a failure, it was a failure. You know fake news.”

While he takes aim at expectations, Trump is also urging his supporters to show up at the caucuses.

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“Tomorrow, Jan. 15, I need each and every one of you to get out. Everybody get out. Just get out and vote,” Trump urged his supporters at a rally Sunday in Indianola, Iowa.

BLIZZARD DERAILS IOWA CAMAPIGN EVENTS, WILL BELOW ZERO TEMPS DEPRESS CAUCUS TURNOUT?

At an Iowa rally earlier this month, Trump touted to supporters that “we’re leading by 30 to 40 points.”

However, he added that “the poll numbers are scary because we’re leading by so much.”

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Terrace View Event Center in Sioux Center, Iowa, Friday, Jan. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik) (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

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 “We’re not taking any chances,” Trump emphasized as he took aim at potential complacency among his supporters. “The biggest risk is, you say you know what? He’s winning by so much, darling. Let’s stay home and watch television. Let’s watch this great victory. And if enough people do that, it’s not going to be pretty. But we’re not going to let that happen.”

 

The Trump campaign in Iowa shifted into a higher gear weeks ago, and the former president picked up the pace of stops in the state. High profile surrogates have also parachuted into Iowa to campaign on the former president’s behalf. Additionally, the campaign trained nearly 2,000 caucus captains in precincts across the state. 

“Their sole job is to run each individual caucus that takes place and making sure that the list of the targeted voters supporting President Trump show up,” LaCivita highlighted.

The Donald Trump 2024 campaign Iowa headquarters, in Urbandale, Iowa on Jan. 14, 2024  (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

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“We’ve built an operation in over 1,800 caucus locations with straight up volunteers, neighborhood by neighborhood. They know the area and they know who’s caucusing in their area and they’ll be following up with them, making sure they vote,” he said. “Our focus and our premium has been on people.. and we think it’s going to bear fruit in a big way.”

The Trump campaign’s ground game operation in Iowa is leagues ahead of his 2016 effort, when he narrowly lost the caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. 

“Ted Cruz won in 2016 because his ground game was fantastic,” Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann, who remains neutral in the Republican nomination race, told Fox News.

Pointing to the 2024 Trump campaign, Kaufmann said “their ground game has increased immensely.”

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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Trump sends official notification to Congress on strikes against Iran

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Trump sends official notification to Congress on strikes against Iran

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President Donald Trump on Monday sent an official notification to Congress about the U.S. strikes against Iran, in which he attempted to justify the military action in the now expanding conflict in the Middle East.

In a letter obtained by FOX News, Trump told Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, that “no U.S. ground forces were used in these strikes” and that the mission “was planned and executed in a manner designed to minimize civilian casualties, deter future attacks, and neutralize Iran’s malign activities.”

This comes after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran on Saturday as part of Operation Epic Fury, triggering a response from Tehran and a wider conflict in the region. The strikes killed the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other military leaders.

President Donald Trump on Monday sent an official notification to Congress about the U.S. strikes against Iran. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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Trump wrote that it is not yet possible to know the full scope of military operations against Iran and that U.S. forces are prepared to take potential further action.

“Although the United States desires a quick and enduring peace, not possible at this time to know the full scope and duration of military operations that may be necessary,” Trump wrote. “As such, United States forces remain postured to take further action, as necessary and appropriate, to address further threats and attacks upon the United States or its allies and partners, and ensure the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases being a threat to the United States, its allies, and the international community.”

“I directed this military action consistent with my responsibility to protect Americans and United States interests both at home and abroad and in furtherance of United States national security and foreign policy interests,” he added. “I acted pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive to conduct United States foreign relations.”

A general view of Tehran with smoke visible in the distance after explosions were reported in the city, on March 2, 2026, in Tehran, Iran. (Contributor/Getty Images)

Trump said he was “providing this report as part of my efforts to keep the Congress fully informed, consistent with the War Powers Resolution,” as some Republican and Democrat lawmakers attempt to restrain the president’s military action, which they affirm is unconstitutional without congressional approval.

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The president also accused Iran of being among the largest state sponsors of terrorism in the world and purported that the “Iranian regime continues to seek the means to possess and employ nuclear weapons,” even after the White House said in June that precision strikes at the time “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.

US SURGES FORCES TO MIDDLE EAST AS PENTAGON WARNS IRAN FIGHT ‘WILL TAKE SOME TIME’

A person holds an image of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranian demonstrators protest against the U.S.-Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 28, 2026.  (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)

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“As I previously communicated to the Congress, Iran remains one of the largest, if not the largest, state-sponsors of terrorism in the world,” Trump said in the letter on Monday. “Despite the success of Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER, the Iranian regime continues to seek the means to possess and employ nuclear weapons. Its array of ballistic, cruise, anti-ship, and other missiles pose a direct threat to and are attacking United States forces, commercial vessels, and civilians, as well as those of our allies and partners.”

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“Despite my Administration’s repeated efforts to achieve a diplomatic solution to Iran’s malign behavior, the threat to the United States and its allies and partners became untenable,” he continued.

Fox News’ Tyler Olson contributed to this report.

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Rep. Kevin Kiley opts against challenging fellow Republican Tom McClintock

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Rep. Kevin Kiley opts against challenging fellow Republican Tom McClintock

Northern California Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin), whose congressional district was carved up in the redistricting ballot measures approved by voters last year, announced Monday that he would not challenge fellow Republican Rep. Tom McClintock of Elk Grove. Instead, he plans to run in the Democratic-leaning district where he resides.

“It’s true that I was fully prepared to run in [McClintock’s district], having tested the waters and with polls showing a favorable outlook in a ‘safe’ district. But doing what’s easy and what’s right are often not the same,” Kiley posted on the social media site X. “And at the end of the day, as much as I love the communities in [that] District that I represent now – and as excited as I was about the new ones – seeking office in a district that doesn’t include my hometown didn’t feel right.”

Kiley, 41, currently represents a congressional district that spans Lake Tahoe to Sacramento. He did not respond to requests for comment.

But after California voters in November passed Proposition 50 — a ballot measure to redraw the state’s congressional districts in an effort to counter Trump’s moves to increase the numbers of Republicans in Congress — Kiley’s district was sliced up into other districts.

As the filing deadline approaches, Kiley pondered his path forward in a decision that was compared by political insiders to the reality television show “The Bachelor.” Who would receive the final rose? McClintock’s new sprawling congressional district includes swaths of gold country, the Central Valley and Death Valley. The district Kiley opted to run in includes the city of Sacramento and the suburbs of Roseville and Rocklin in Placer County.

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Kiley was facing headwinds because of the Republican institutional support that lined up behind McClintock, 69, who has been in Congress since 2009 and served in the state Legislature for 26 years previously. President Trump, the California Republican Party and the Club for Growth’s political action committee are among the people and groups who have endorsed McClintock.

Conservative strategist Jon Fleischman, a former executive director of the state GOP, said he was thrilled by Kiley’s decision, which avoids a divisive intraparty battle.

“If you open up the dictionary and look for the word conservative, it’s a photo of Tom McClintock. He is the ideological leader of conservatives, not only in California but in Congress for many, many years,” Fleischman said, adding that the endorsements for McClintock purposefully came because Kiley was considering challenging him.

Kiley, who grew up near Sacramento, attended Harvard University and Yale Law School. A former Teach for America member, he served in the state Assembly for six years before being elected to Congress in 2022 with Trump’s backing. But he has bucked the president, notably on tariffs. He also unsuccessfully ran to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom during the 2021 recall, and has been a constant critic of the governor.

Kiley is now running in a Sacramento-area district represented by Rep. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove). Democrats in the newly drawn district had a nearly 9-point voter registration edge in 2024. Bera is now running in the new version of Kiley’s district.

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In Kiley’s new race, his top rival is Dr. Richard Pan of Sacramento, a former state senator and staunch supporter of vaccinations.

“Kevin Kiley can try to rebrand himself, but voters know his extreme record,” Pan said in a statement. “He has stood with Donald Trump 98% of the time and was named a ‘MAGA Champion.’ The people of this district deserve better than political opportunism disguised as moderation. This race is about who will actually fight for healthcare, public health, and working families. I’ve done that my entire career. Kevin Kiley has not.”

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Video: Defense Officials Give No Timeline for War in Iran as U.S. Boosts Forces

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Video: Defense Officials Give No Timeline for War in Iran as U.S. Boosts Forces

new video loaded: Defense Officials Give No Timeline for War in Iran as U.S. Boosts Forces

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Defense Officials Give No Timeline for War in Iran as U.S. Boosts Forces

At a Pentagon news conference, top defense officials said that the U.S. military was sending more forces to the Middle East and expects to “take additional losses.” Earlier, President Trump said that the U.S. could continue striking Iran for the next four to five weeks.

“We didn’t start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This operation is a clear, devastating, decisive mission. Destroy the missile threat. Destroy the navy. No nukes. President Trump has all the latitude in the world to talk about how long it may or may not take. Four weeks. Two weeks, six weeks. It could move up. It could move back. We’re going to execute at his command the objectives we’ve set out to achieve.” “We expect to take additional losses. And as always, we will work to minimize U.S. losses. But as the secretary said, this is major combat operations.” Reporter: “Are there currently any American boots on the ground in Iran?” “No, but we’re not going to go into the exercise of what we will or will not do. I think — it’s one of those fallacies for a long time that this department or presidents or others should tell the American people. This — and our enemies by the way — here’s exactly what we’ll do. Why in the world would we tell you, you, the enemy, anybody, what we will or will not do in pursuit of an objective?”

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At a Pentagon news conference, top defense officials said that the U.S. military was sending more forces to the Middle East and expects to “take additional losses.” Earlier, President Trump said that the U.S. could continue striking Iran for the next four to five weeks.

By Christina Kelso

March 2, 2026

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