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Iowa expectations: Trump downplays whether he'll top 50% in Monday night's GOP presidential caucuses

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Iowa expectations: Trump downplays whether he'll top 50% in Monday night's GOP presidential caucuses

DES MOINES, IA – Donald Trump is confident he’ll do “very well” in Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, which lead off the 2024 Republican presidential nominating calendar.

But the former president isn’t ready to make a prediction on if he’ll top 50%.

As he left his hotel in Des Moines on Sunday, Trump was asked by Fox News’ James Levinson about whether he would receive more than 50 % of the vote in the caucuses.

“I don’t know, I think we are doing very well,” Trump answered. The former president is the commanding front-runner in the latest polls in Iowa as well as in national surveys in the GOP presidential nomination race as he makes his third straight White House run.

WHAT THE FINAL POLL BEFORE MONDAY’S IOWA GOP PRESIDENTIAL CAUCUSES SHOWS

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Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa, Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Trump grabbed 50% support, or higher, in a slew of polls over the past month in Iowa. And he stood at 48% support in the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom/NBC News poll of likely Republican caucusgoers was released Saturday night. His closest rivals – former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – stood at 20% and 16% in the new survey.

The closely watched and highly anticipated survey, conducted by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, has a well-earned tradition of accuracy in past GOP presidential caucuses, and is considered by many as the gold standard in Iowa polling.

DESANTIS BETS BIG ON IOWA – WILL IT PAY OFF ?

DeSantis campaign manager James Uthmeier, in a Sunday appearance on Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom,” argued that “expectations are high for Trump…he’s got to perform. If he gets less than half the vote, more people voting against him than for him. I think that’s, you know, setting up doom down the road.”

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And Haley, in an interview on the same program, noted that people will be looking to see if Trump “is falling below 50%.”

Longtime Republican strategist David Kochel, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns and statewide contests in Iowa, told Fox News “there are two campaigns going on in Iowa right now.”

“One is Trump vs. his expectations and the other one is Haley vs. DeSantis to see who gets the right to take on Trump one-on-one,” noted Kochel, who remains neutral in the Republican presidential caucuses.

Trump made history last year as the first former or current president to be indicted for a crime, but his four indictments, including charges he tried to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss, have only fueled his support among Republican voters.

HALEY KNOCKS MEDIA EXPECTATIONS BUT LOOKS TO ‘BIG SHOWING’ IN IOWA

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But Trump and his campaign have been attempting to downplay the high expectations he faces in Iowa.

“No one has ever won the Iowa caucus by more than 12%,” Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita told Fox News Digital on Saturday. “I think the public polls are a little rich.”

Trump, speaking with reporters on Sunday, took aim at media attention over Iowa expectations.

“There seems to be something about 50% now. It doesn’t matter,” Trump argued. “I think they’re doing it so that they can set a high expectation. So if we end up with 49%, which would be about 25 points bigger than anyone else ever got. They can say he had a failure, it was a failure. You know fake news.”

While he takes aim at expectations, Trump is also urging his supporters to show up at the caucuses.

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“Tomorrow, Jan. 15, I need each and every one of you to get out. Everybody get out. Just get out and vote,” Trump urged his supporters at a rally Sunday in Indianola, Iowa.

BLIZZARD DERAILS IOWA CAMAPIGN EVENTS, WILL BELOW ZERO TEMPS DEPRESS CAUCUS TURNOUT?

At an Iowa rally earlier this month, Trump touted to supporters that “we’re leading by 30 to 40 points.”

However, he added that “the poll numbers are scary because we’re leading by so much.”

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Terrace View Event Center in Sioux Center, Iowa, Friday, Jan. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik) (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

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 “We’re not taking any chances,” Trump emphasized as he took aim at potential complacency among his supporters. “The biggest risk is, you say you know what? He’s winning by so much, darling. Let’s stay home and watch television. Let’s watch this great victory. And if enough people do that, it’s not going to be pretty. But we’re not going to let that happen.”

 

The Trump campaign in Iowa shifted into a higher gear weeks ago, and the former president picked up the pace of stops in the state. High profile surrogates have also parachuted into Iowa to campaign on the former president’s behalf. Additionally, the campaign trained nearly 2,000 caucus captains in precincts across the state. 

“Their sole job is to run each individual caucus that takes place and making sure that the list of the targeted voters supporting President Trump show up,” LaCivita highlighted.

The Donald Trump 2024 campaign Iowa headquarters, in Urbandale, Iowa on Jan. 14, 2024  (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

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“We’ve built an operation in over 1,800 caucus locations with straight up volunteers, neighborhood by neighborhood. They know the area and they know who’s caucusing in their area and they’ll be following up with them, making sure they vote,” he said. “Our focus and our premium has been on people.. and we think it’s going to bear fruit in a big way.”

The Trump campaign’s ground game operation in Iowa is leagues ahead of his 2016 effort, when he narrowly lost the caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. 

“Ted Cruz won in 2016 because his ground game was fantastic,” Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann, who remains neutral in the Republican nomination race, told Fox News.

Pointing to the 2024 Trump campaign, Kaufmann said “their ground game has increased immensely.”

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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Expert who fled Cuba warns of ‘vicious cycle’ that will lead to ‘communists in double digits’ in Congress

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Expert who fled Cuba warns of ‘vicious cycle’ that will lead to ‘communists in double digits’ in Congress

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A national security expert who fled to the U.S. from Cuba is warning that one “vicious cycle” currently dominating American politics could lead to “communists in double digits” serving in Congress.

Mike Gonzalez, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation who fled communist Cuba in the 1970s, said in an interview with Fox News Digital that the socialist “threat is real now.”

Gonzalez likened this trend to a “takeover of a host body, the Democratic Party,” saying, “It’s being taken over by body snatchers and they’re not able to mount any defense of it whatsoever even if they wanted to.”

Under the current political environment, Gonzalez predicted, “We’re going to get communists in double digits in the House of Representatives at least, there’s no doubt of that.”

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BILL MAHER’S DIRE MIDTERM ELECTION WARNING TO DEMS AFTER ‘REALLY CRAZY’ SOCIALISTS WIN PRIMARIES

Members of the Democratic Socialists of America gather outside of a Trump owned building during a May Day rally in New York City in 2019. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Over the course of a year, New York City elected a socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani, while three of his endorsed socialist congressional candidates — Brad Lander, Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier — defeated establishment Democrats, including two incumbents. On the other side of the country, Seattle elected a socialist mayor, Katie Wilson. Just this week, Colorado congressional candidate Melat Kiros defeated 15-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Diana DeGette, further illustrating socialists’ ability to topple entrenched party figures.

While these politicians identify as socialist, Gonzalez pointed out that to the authors of the communist manifesto, Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, “there was no difference between socialism and communism, they were interchangeable.”

“These people are communists, and when you catch them unawares, they actually say, ‘Oh, yeah, I know we want communism,’” he said.

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According to Gonzalez, the widespread success of socialist candidates in races across the U.S. is due to several factors, including the breakdown of immigrants assimilating to American culture, increased hatred of the U.S. and even White guilt combined with a real affordability crisis in cities like New York.

“A very important component of this and one that conservatives sometimes forget is that a lot of these votes are White votes, White young kids who have come in from the suburbs, who feel guilty about a number of things,” he explained.

SOCIALISM GOES WEST AS DSA-BACKED CHALLENGER OUSTS LONGTIME DEMOCRAT

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani speaks during a primary-night watch party for NYC Congressional candidate Claire Valdez at 99 Scott Studio on June 23, 2026 in the East Williamsburg neighborhood of the Brooklyn borough in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

“They have gone to very expensive Ivy League schools and they’re trying to make a living in New York City without being a banker. And you can’t make a living in New York City if you’re not a banker, sorry, you’re going to have an affordability crisis.”

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This, Gonzalez said, makes socialist promises of handouts, such as free tuition, free bus fares and public-run grocery stores, an easy sell.

“So, they end up voting for this. This is a very bad vicious cycle that is taking place and that is going to produce communism in this country if we’re not careful.”

Meanwhile, Neetu Arnold, a young immigrant to the U.S. who now works as a policy analyst for the Manhattan Institute, emphasized that the socialist trend is not just isolated to cities like New York but becoming increasingly prevalent in cities across the U.S.

“The rise in the socialism in America, it’s going to shape our politics. I think it’s going to make things more extreme,” Arnold said in an interview with Fox News Digital.

DSA CO-CHAIR PUSHES BACK ON SOVIET UNION COMPARISONS, WANTS PRISONS TO BE ‘LESS NECESSARY’

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Members of the Party for Socialism and Liberation filmed children supporting the regime in Iran, during a protest on Saturday, March 7, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Asra Q. Nomani/Fox News Digital)

“What the socialist candidates have tapped into are real frustrations and grievances, but the solutions that they’re offering is essentially more government involvement rather than trying to address the underlying problems,” she explained. “What a lot of younger people are finding out is that it’s not that easy to get housing. They’re in student debt, they are struggling to find stable jobs, and so the things that they were promised are not necessarily coming true.”

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As a naturalized U.S. citizen, Arnold said she hopes both sides of the political aisle recognize that “socialist policies are a threat to the American way of life.”

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“In this country we value merit, we value wealth, and the ability to move upward in this society,” she said. “I’ve seen my life change before my eyes by being here in this county, by having the opportunities that I did, and that I saw for my family, and I think that was only possible because of free markets and the opportunities that we had in this country.”

“Socialist policies essentially restrict what we are able to do,” Arnold continued. “So, I do take it seriously and I hope that Democrats, Republicans, they all take the rise of socialism seriously.”

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Commentary: Happy Birthday, America! You’ve weathered another rough year

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Commentary: Happy Birthday, America! You’ve weathered another rough year

Happy Birthday, America!

You turned 250 on Saturday and, honestly, you don’t look a day over 249. (Ha ha.)

Seriously, it’s perfectly understandable why there’s more gray on your scalp and deeper worry lines on your face. This last year has been another challenging one, to say the least. (And we thought the one cataloged 12 months ago in this space was rough.)

The country is caught up in an unpopular, on-again, off-again war with Iran that was recklessly launched by President Trump with far more swagger than foresight. In an utterly predictable move, Iran choked off the the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for the world’s oil, sending gasoline prices skyrocketing. Though they’ve fallen since the announcement of a shaky ceasefire agreement, the cost of filling up is still significantly higher than a year ago.

Of course, costlier oil means virtually everything else has become more expensive. Trump was reelected in good part because he vowed to tame inflation on his very first day in office. Instead, it’s reached a three-year high.

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The ground beef served up at many July 4 cookouts costs 75 cents a pound more than it did a year ago. A package of hamburger buns is up 15 cents. The price of hot dogs and other picnic staples have also increased, along with just about every other item at the grocery store.

Chew that over with your corn on the cob. (Up roughly 2.5% from July 2025.)

Meanwhile, Trump enriched himself to the tune of $2.2 billion during his first year in office alone. Treating the U.S. treasury like his personal cash cow, the president has lavished hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars on vanity projects such as a personally kitted out Air Force One — a “gift” from Qatar that Trump plans to keep after retirement — and a gilded White House ballroom, rising where the demolished East Wing used to stand. Plans are underway for a grand, marble arch in Washington celebrating, well, you know who.

At the same time, Trump has squandered money and resources pursuing political vendettas, persecution of his enemies and fruitless investigations like the one probing “theft” of the 2020 election and “vandalism” at the algae-clogged Reflecting Pool he promised and failed to rehab.

All this while millions of Americans have lost healthcare coverage and/or federal food assistance, all thanks to the One Big Billionaire Bounty bill that Trump signed into law a year ago.

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It’s all a bit unnerving isn’t it, America? You’re on edge in a way you haven’t been in at least a generation.

In Minnesota, in the dead of winter, two of your citizens were gunned down by federal officers as they engaged in that most American of exercises, registering dissent against the policies of their government. From sea to shining sea, innocent Americans have been arrested — and sometimes shipped abroad — and immigrant communities cower in fear of federal agents who often seem bent more on meeting deportation quotas than meting out justice.

You’re divided, America, in ways no one alive has ever seen.

It starts at the very top. Trump acts as though he’s president of a favored rump group — his political supporters — rather than the nation as a whole. He’s used your 250th birthday not to celebrate those many grand and glorious things that hold us together as Americans but to bask in the tanning-bed glow of his immeasurable self-regard.

But, heck, if it’s any consolation on this star-spangled holiday weekend, the country has been through worse. Much worse. And you, America, have not only survived but in many ways grown stronger by surmounting obstacles, facing down your flaws and overcoming some knee-buckling, soul-crushing challenges.

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Slavery. Civil war. Racist exclusionary laws. Genocide against indigenous peoples. Two worldwide conflicts. Depression. Financial crises. And too many deadly natural disasters — fire, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes — to enumerate.

Your treatment of some Americans, it should be said, hasn’t always been fair and just. It still isn’t.

People are despairing over the Supreme Court and its genuflecting deference to the president. The justices of its conservative majority have done just about everything short of handing Trump a crown and scepter to reign as a virtually untouchable, imperial president.

But it’s worth noting that earlier court majorities held that Black Americans — “beings of an inferior order,” in the words of the wretched Dred Scott decision — could be denied citizenship, that racial segregation was constitutional and that compulsory sterilization based on eugenics was perfectly fine from a legal standpoint.

That ugly, sordid history won’t necessarily make anyone feel better about the current state of affairs, nor should it. But it does offer some perspective and, with it, hope.

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This weekend is best celebrated honoring the country’s many good things and the bright, shining place that America aspires to be, with liberty and justice for all. So chin up! Have another slice of birthday cake, America, and don’t worry about the calories — you really do look terrific for 250!

Going forward it’s up to us, your citizens, to keep working toward that more perfect union mentioned in the preamble to the Constitution. Whatever ails you, America, the remedy resides with we the people and the power we hold, particularly at the ballot box.

Unhappy with the wrecking crew that’s heedlessly chain-sawed federal programs and allowed Trump to money-grub with both fists, defile the White House and undermine our rule of law? Send a message and vote ‘em out, starting in November’s midterm election. And bear in mind the damage that’s been wrought come the 2028 presidential race.

Don’t stop believing that, as dark and difficult as things may seem right now, better days lie ahead.

That undimmed and abiding faith is what makes America great.

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Trump set to deliver ‘historic’ speech celebrating America’s 250th anniversary

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Trump set to deliver ‘historic’ speech celebrating America’s 250th anniversary

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President Donald Trump is set to deliver what the White House is calling a “historic” speech Saturday night before a massive fireworks display celebrating America’s 250th anniversary.

Trump is still expected to take the stage at 10 p.m. at the conclusion of the Salute to America celebration on the National Mall, though timing of events may fluctuate due to adverse weather, per a senior White House official.

The president’s address is expected to look back on America’s history since its founding 250 years ago, a senior White House official told Fox News.

THE LESSON WE CAN LEARN FROM BICENTENNIAL HISTORY IS TO PARTY LIKE IT’S 1976

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President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at Mount Rushmore National Memorial on July 3, 2026 in Keystone, South Dakota. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Trump will deliver a “unique” speech featuring the stories of American heroes.

“It will be a unique speech unlike any other he’s given before,” the official added.

Earlier Saturday, Trump celebrated what he described as a “stronger than ever” America in a Truth Social post, praising the “incredible” crowds gathered in Washington despite the heat and storms.

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The grand finale lasted over two minutes to cap a 23-minute light and fireworks display over Mount Rushmore after President Donald Trump’s 28-minute speech, brief by his lengthy standards. (Matt Gade)

The president also highlighted the air shows over the nation’s capital, saying the pilots and aircraft were “at a level never seen before.”

Trump also addressed recent vandalism at the Reflecting Pool, calling those responsible “Vandal Thugs” and promising the pool would be drained and repaired after the holiday weekend.

The president’s remarks come one day after he delivered a patriotic speech at Mount Rushmore, where he called the United States the “most exceptional nation ever to exist” and warned that communism posed the nation’s greatest threat.

TRUMP HAILS AMERICA AS ‘MOST EXCEPTIONAL NATION EVER TO EXIST’ IN MOUNT RUSHMORE SPEECH

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The U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds perform a flyover during “Salute to America 250” Fourth of July celebrations on the National Mall on July 4, 2026, in Washington, DC. (Finn Gomez/Getty Images)

“Communism is the exact opposite of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness — it is death, tyranny and the pursuit of evil.

A severe thunderstorm swept through Washington on Saturday evening, prompting emergency officials to urge people on the National Mall to seek shelter.

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Freedom 250, the event organizer, said it would provide updates on the evening’s schedule as weather conditions developed.

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