Politics
As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale Becomes an Issue, Officials Say
WASHINGTON — In 36 days of combating on Iwo Jima throughout World Warfare II, almost 7,000 Marines have been killed. Now, 20 days after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invaded Ukraine, his army has already misplaced extra troopers, in line with American intelligence estimates.
The conservative facet of the estimate, at greater than 7,000 Russian troop deaths, is larger than the variety of American troops killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan mixed.
It’s a staggering quantity amassed in simply three weeks of combating, American officers say, with implications for the fight effectiveness of Russian models, together with troopers in tank formations. Pentagon officers say a ten % casualty fee, together with useless and wounded, for a single unit renders it unable to hold out combat-related duties.
With greater than 150,000 Russian troops now concerned within the battle in Ukraine, Russian casualties, when together with the estimated 14,000 to 21,000 injured, are close to that degree. And the Russian army has additionally misplaced no less than three generals within the battle, in line with Ukrainian, NATO and Russian officers.
Pentagon officers say {that a} excessive, and rising, variety of battle useless can destroy the need to proceed combating. The end result, they are saying, has proven up in intelligence studies that senior officers within the Biden administration learn day-after-day: One latest report targeted on low morale amongst Russian troops and described troopers simply parking their automobiles and strolling off into the woods.
The American officers, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate operational issues, warning that their numbers of Russian troop deaths are inexact, compiled by way of evaluation of the information media, Ukrainian figures (which are usually excessive, with the newest at 13,500), Russian figures (which are usually low, with the newest at 498), satellite tv for pc imagery and cautious perusal of video photographs of Russian tanks and troops that come below fireplace.
American army and intelligence officers know, for example, what number of troops are normally in a tank, and might extrapolate from that the variety of casualties when an armored car is hit by, say, a Javelin anti-tank missile.
The excessive fee of casualties goes far to elucidate why Russia’s much-vaunted drive has remained largely stalled outdoors of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.
“Losses like this have an effect on morale and unit cohesion, particularly since these troopers don’t perceive why they’re combating,” mentioned Evelyn Farkas, the highest Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine through the Obama administration. “Your general situational consciousness decreases. Somebody’s obtained to drive, somebody’s obtained to shoot.”
However, she added, “that’s simply the land forces.” With Russian floor forces in disarray, Mr. Putin has more and more regarded to the skies to assault Ukrainian cities, residential buildings, hospitals and even colleges. That aerial bombardment, officers say, has helped camouflage the Russian army’s poor efficiency on the bottom. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine mentioned this week that an estimated 1,300 Ukrainian troopers had been killed within the battle.
Indicators of Russia’s challenges abound. Late final week, Russian information sources reported that Mr. Putin had put two of his prime intelligence officers below home arrest. The officers, who run the Fifth Service of Russia’s primary intelligence service, the FSB, have been interrogated for offering poor intelligence forward of the invasion, in line with Andrei Soldatov, a Russian safety companies professional.
“They have been answerable for offering political intelligence and cultivating networks of help in Ukraine,” Mr. Soldatov mentioned in an interview. “They informed Putin what he needed to listen to” about how the invasion would progress.
Russians themselves could also be listening to solely what Mr. Putin needs them to listen to about his “operation” in Ukraine, which he refuses to name a battle or an invasion. Because it started, he has exerted iron management over the information retailers in Russia; state media isn’t publicizing most casualties, and has minimized the destruction.
However some Russians have entry to digital personal networks (VPNs) and are in a position to get information from the West.
“I don’t imagine he can wall off, indefinitely, Russians from the reality,” William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, informed the Senate final Thursday. “Particularly as realities started to puncture that bubble, the realities of killed and wounded coming house, and the growing quantity, the realities of the financial penalties for extraordinary Russians, the realities of the horrific scenes of hospitals and colleges being bombed subsequent door in Ukraine, and of civilian casualties there as nicely.”
The information of the generals’ deaths is trickling out, first from Ukrainians, then confirmed by NATO officers, with one demise acknowledged by Mr. Putin in a speech. They’ve been recognized as Maj. Gen. Andrei Kolesnikov, a commander from Russia’s japanese army district; Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of the forty first Mixed Arms Military; and Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, deputy commander of the forty first Mixed Arms Military.
Russia-Ukraine Warfare: Key Issues to Know
Western officers say that round 20 Russian generals have been in Ukraine as a part of the battle effort, and that they might have pushed nearer to the entrance to spice up morale.
“Three generals already — that’s a stunning quantity,” Michael McFaul, the previous United States ambassador to Russia, mentioned in an interview.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian officers reported {that a} fourth normal, Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev, the commander of the one hundred and fiftieth motorized rifle division, had been killed in combating.
Two American army officers mentioned that many Russian generals are speaking on unsecured telephones and radios. In no less than one occasion, they mentioned, the Ukrainians intercepted a normal’s name, geolocated it, and attacked his location, killing him and his workers.
If Russian army deaths proceed to rise, the sorts of civic organizations that known as consideration to troop deaths and accidents through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan might as soon as extra come to prominence.
However the Russian toll, some army specialists and lawmakers say, is unlikely to vary Mr. Putin’s technique.
“It’s beautiful, and the Russians haven’t even gotten to the worst of it, after they hit city fight within the cities,” Consultant Jason Crow, Democrat of Colorado and a member of the Home Armed Providers and Intelligence committees, mentioned in an interview.
“I don’t suppose it’ll have an effect on Putin’s calculus,” Mr. Crow mentioned. “He isn’t prepared to lose. He’s been backed right into a nook and can proceed to throw troops on the drawback.”
Politics
What is Evacuation Day? The forgotten holiday that predates Thanksgiving
When President Abraham Lincoln first proclaimed Thanksgiving a national holiday, little did he know he was spelling the beginning of the end to the prominence of the original patriotic celebration held during the last week of November: Evacuation Day.
In November 1863, Lincoln issued an order thanking God for harvest blessings, and by the 1940s, Congress had declared the 11th month of the calendar year’s fourth Thursday to be Thanksgiving Day.
That commemoration, though, combined with the gradual move toward détente with what is now the U.S.’ strongest ally – Great Britain – displaced the day Americans celebrated the last of the Redcoats fleeing their land.
Following the Declaration of Independence in Philadelphia in 1776, New York City, just 99 miles to the northeast, remained a British stronghold until the end of the Revolutionary War.
Captured Continentals were held aboard prison ships in New York Harbor and British political activity in the West was anchored in the Big Apple, according to the Department of Veterans Affairs.
GEORGE WASHINGTON’S SACRED TRADITION
However, that all came crashing down on the crown after the Treaty of Paris was signed, and new “Americans” eagerly saw the British out of their hard-won home on Nov. 25, 1783.
In their haste to flee the U.S., the British took time to grease flagpoles that still flew the Union Jack. One prominent post was at Bennett Park – on present-day West 183 Street near the northern tip of Manhattan.
Undeterred, Sgt. John van Arsdale, a Revolution veteran, cobbled together cleats that allowed him to climb the slick pole and tear down the then-enemy flag. Van Arsdale replaced it with the Stars and Stripes – and without today’s skyscrapers in the way, the change of colors at the island’s highest point could be seen farther downtown.
In the harbor, a final blast from a British warship aimed for Staten Island, but missed a crowd that had assembled to watch the 6,000-man military begin its journey back across the Atlantic to King George III.
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Later that day, future President George Washington and New York Gov. George Clinton – who had negotiated “evacuation” with England’s Canadian Gov. Sir Guy Carleton – led a military march down Broadway through throngs of revelers to what would today be the Wall Street financial district at the other end of Manhattan.
Clinton hosted Washington for dinner and a “Farewell Toast” at nearby Fraunces’ Tavern, which houses a museum dedicated to the original U.S. holiday. Samuel Fraunces, who owned the watering hole, provided food and reportedly intelligence to the Continental Army.
Washington convened at Fraunces’ just over a week later to announce his leave from the Army, surrounded by Clinton and other top Revolutionary figures like German-born Gen. Friedrich von Steuben – whom New York’s Oktoberfest-styled parade officially honors.
“With a heart full of love and gratitude, I now take leave of you. I most devoutly wish that your latter days may be as prosperous and happy, as your former ones have been glorious and honorable,” Washington said.
Before Lincoln – and later Congress – normalized Thanksgiving as the mass family affair it has become, Evacuation Day was more prominent than both its successor and Independence Day, according to several sources, including Untapped New York.
Nov. 25 was a school holiday in the 19th century and people re-created van Arsdale’s climb up the Bennett Park flagpole. Formal dinners were held at the Plaza Hotel and other upscale institutions for many years, according to the outlet.
An official parade reminiscent of today’s Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade was held every year in New York until the 1910s.
As diplomatic relations with the United Kingdom warmed heading into the 20th century and the U.S. alliance with London during the World Wars proved crucial, celebrating Evacuation Day became less and less prominent.
Into the 2010s, however, commemorative flag-raisings have been sporadically held at Bowling Green, the southern endpoint of Broadway. On the original Evacuation Day, Washington’s dinner at Fraunces Tavern was preceded by the new U.S. Army marching down the iconic avenue to formally take back New York.
Thirteen toasts – marking the number of United States – were raised at Fraunces, each one spelling out the new government’s hope for the new nation or giving thanks to those who helped it come to be.
An aide to Washington wrote them down for posterity, and the Sons of the American Revolution recite them at an annual dinner, according to the tavern’s museum site.
“To the United States of America,” the first toast went. The second honored King Louis XVI, whose French Army was crucial in America’s victory.
“To the vindicators of the rights of mankind in every quarter of the globe,” read another. “May a close union of the states guard the temple they have erected to liberty.”
The 13th offered a warning to any other country that might ever seek to invade the new U.S.:
“May the remembrance of this day be a lesson to princes.”
Politics
Why Donald Trump still could not conquer Orange County
Donald Trump posted notable gains in Orange County during the November election, but it was not enough to win the increasingly purple county that has become a suburban battleground between Republicans and Democrats — and a reflection of the demographic political realignment unfolding across the nation.
Kamala Harris won Orange County, but by a much tighter margin than either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. When it comes to presidential politics, Orange County has backed Democrats since 2016, with increasingly blue areas such as Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine besting more red areas such as Huntington Beach and south Orange County.
But experts say the 2024 results offer some warning signs for Democrats.
“What the early numbers indicate is that Donald Trump made inroads with minority voters including probably substantial gains with Latino and Asian voters,” said Jeff Corless, a former strategist for Orange County Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer. “What we’re hearing is that he made those same kinds of gains in other communities similar to Orange County across the country. He also made gains with traditional suburban voters, which he struggled with in 2020.”
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data specialist, said Trump probably did better in the county because of lower Democratic turnout this year compared with 2020, as well as voters being familiar — and potentially comfortable — with Trump because of their experience during his prior tenure.
“It may also be Trump has been normalized, in an odd way,” Mitchell said. “He’s been in our political eyesight for the last decade now. Maybe voters like the economy better under Trump.”
In 2016, Clinton received roughly 100,000 more votes in Orange County than Trump, making her the first Democrat county voters selected for the presidency in 80 years. In 2020, Biden fared even better, besting Trump by more than 137,500 votes. Now, Harris has edged out Trump, but the margin of victory is on trend to be much tighter than seen in past elections.
Votes in Orange County are still being counted and final numbers aren’t required to be certified by the county until Dec. 5 and by the state until Dec. 13. But it’s clear, experts say, that Trump harnessed the disillusionment felt by voters who are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economic pains that have beset many living in the suburbs.
“People in the press and people like me still so often take Trump literally, whereas voters lived through this once and the apocalypse didn’t happen and they liked the economy better,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran GOP strategist and Trump critic who previously advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
He noted that Trump’s improved performance in Orange County was not an outlier.
“He did better — look at how he did in New York, on the Eastern Seaboard, in Massachusetts,” Stutzman said. “There are red dots that never existed the last few decades.”
Still, there were some bright spots for Democrats, notably being able to hold on to a congressional seat that became open because Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine pursued an unsuccessful Senate bid, and flipping the 45th Congressional District. In that race, first-time candidate Derek Tran defeated Republican Rep. Michelle Steel of Seal Beach in a hotly contested race that became one of the most expensive in the country.
A UC Irvine poll released last year conveyed discord among Orange County voters, particularly Republicans and those who choose not to identify with a political party, who said despite their optimism about Orange County and somewhat about California, they did not have a good feeling about the future of America.
“The [election] results are much more a statement about people’s dissatisfaction with the current national administration than some grand statement about Trump or Republicans,” said Jon Gould, dean of the university’s School of Social Ecology.
Orange County has been turning bluer since 2012, but that trend faded in 2024
Harris won in Anaheim, Buena Park, La Habra and Santa Ana — but her advantage over Trump was 10 to 15 percentage points lower than Biden’s was in 2020.
Preliminary data as of Nov. 25
Orange County Registrar of Voters
Gabrielle LaMarr LeMee and Sandhya Kambhampati LOS ANGELES TIMES
“This is not a sign that Orange County is suddenly a red county,” Gould said. “This is exactly what it means to be a purple county.”
Michele Monda, a Republican who lives in the deep-blue city of Laguna Beach, voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 with her son and grandchildren in mind. The high housing costs and general lack of affordability have made it a challenge for middle-class couples, like her son and daughter-in-law, to build a life in many parts of California, including Orange County.
“Who is looking out for them?” Monda said. “They’re barely getting by, and quite honestly, the Democrats don’t seem to care. While I know Trump is a billionaire, I think he understands the needs of a middle-class person.”
Economics and Trump’s stance on immigration were the two main drivers that motivated her to vote for him. While she’s not always a fan of Trump’s behavior, she loves his policies. It’s not surprising, she said, that others in Orange County were swayed to his side as well.
“I think people have had enough of the Democrat party line, enough of the economy, enough of the whole platform. The things they espouse they just don’t work,” Monda said. “I think people in California are waking up.”
Trump’s improvement in the county has generated excitement among California Republicans who for years have tried to strengthen its hold on Orange County as Democratic voter registration grew and elections became more competitive.
For decades, Orange County was a conservative stronghold — the birthplace of former President Nixon, the cradle of Ronald Reagan’s ascent to the governor’s mansion and then the White House, and, for decades, a virtual synonym for the Republican Party of California.
The county’s shift over the last decade from deeply red to a more politically and demographically diverse region has fascinated the public for years.
“Orange County is a battleground,” said Jon Fleischman, a Republican campaign strategist and former executive director of the California GOP.
Trump’s popularity boost among Latinos and Asian Americans seen nationally could very well also be at play in swing counties such as Orange County. Republicans in the county for years have sought to attract Latinos and Asian Americans to their party with mixed success, and Trump’s performance could signal gains among these voter blocs, as well as Black Americans. He also won back some suburban women who turned against the Republican Party during his 2016 campaign and in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal protection for abortion access in 2022.
Democrats leaned heavily into messaging about the loss of reproductive rights during this year’s campaign, in television ads and during their convention when they nominated Harris. However, Stutzman contended that the argument failed to resonate with suburban women in affluent areas such as Orange County as much as Democrats expected it to.
Orange County saw a bigger drop in Democratic votes than Republican votes from 2020 to 2024
Turnout in every city in the county was lower this year than in 2020.
Percent decline in votes from 2020 to 2024
Percent decline in votes from 2020 to 2024
Preliminary data as of Nov. 25
Orange County Registrar of Voters
Gabrielle LaMarr LeMee and Sandhya Kambhampati LOS ANGELES TIMES
“Most women in America still have access — an overwhelming majority have access to abortion,” he said. “I just don’t know if there’s a connection, any real existential threat that their rights are being further eroded than they have been.”
Though Harris won the majority of votes across deep-blue California, Trump was on track to win Butte, Stanislaus, Fresno, Inyo, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, all areas that Biden carried in 2020. Trump also gained ground in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles County compared with 2016 and 2020.
“In order for Trump to win Orange County, he had to make inroads with minority voters, and he did that through issues that mattered to them and the struggles they’re facing,” Corless said.
Democrats’ ability to register voters in Orange County has also slowed.
Between October 2022 and October 2024, the Democratic Party in Orange County grew by just over 3,100 voters. At the same time, the Republican Party’s numbers swelled by 31,000 people, according to data from the California secretary of state.
In the years that the GOP voter registration waned, the number of nonparty-preference voters grew. Many longtime Republicans in Orange County, irritated by Trump’s outlandish speaking style and policy positions, branded themselves as “Never Trumpers.” But Republicans in Orange County have made a concerted effort this cycle to reregister former GOP voters and push early voting and mail ballots, a recognition of how much Trump’s opposition to such efforts harmed the party in 2020.
“When Trump was first elected, he was not everybody’s favorite flavor of ice cream, and I think you saw a lot of Republicans who decided to become independent,” Fleischman said. “I think as people have decided that they’re OK with Trump, they’ve been coming back to the party.”
The Republican Party of Orange County went as far as hosting a ballot collection day on Oct. 11 in which Republican Party offices served as designated ballot-drop locations. The move, it said at the time, makes voting more accessible while “maintaining the highest level election integrity.”
Politics
Appeals court rules Texas has right to build razor wire border wall to deter illegal immigration: 'Huge win'
A federal appeals court on Wednesday ruled that Texas has the right to build a razor wire border wall to deter illegal immigration into the Lone Star State.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced the ruling on X, saying President Biden was “wrong to cut our razor wire.”
“We continue adding more razor wire border barrier,” the Republican leader wrote.
Wednesday’s 2-1 decision by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals clears the way for Texas to pursue a lawsuit accusing the Biden administration of trespassing without having to remove the fencing.
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It also reversed a federal judge’s November 2023 refusal to grant a preliminary injunction to Texas as the state resisted federal efforts to remove fencing along the Rio Grande in the vicinity of Eagle Pass, Texas.
Circuit Judge Kyle Duncan, a Trump appointee during the president-elect’s first term, wrote for Wednesday’s majority that Texas was trying only to safeguard its own property, not “regulate” U.S. Border Patrol, and was likely to succeed in its trespass claims.
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Duncan said the federal government waived its sovereign immunity and rejected its concerns that a ruling by Texas would impede the enforcement of immigration law and undermine the government’s relationship with Mexico.
He said the public interest “supports clear protections for property rights from government intrusion and control” and ensuring that federal immigration law enforcement does not “unnecessarily intrude into the rights of countless property owners.”
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton called the ruling a “huge win for Texas.”
“The Biden Administration has been enjoined from damaging, destroying, or otherwise interfering with Texas’s border fencing,” Paxton wrote in a post on X. “We sued immediately when the federal government was observed destroying fences to let illegal aliens enter, and we’ve fought every step of the way for Texas sovereignty and security.”
The White House has been locked in legal battles with Texas and other states that have tried to deter illegal immigration.
In May, the full 5th Circuit heard arguments in a separate case between Texas and the White House over whether the state can keep a 1,000-foot floating barrier on the Rio Grande.
The appeals court is also reviewing a judge’s order blocking a Texas law that would allow state officials to arrest, prosecute and order the removal of people in the country illegally.
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