This story, by Report for America corps member Carly Berlin, was produced through a partnership between VTDigger and Vermont Public.

As the number of people experiencing homelessness in Vermont continues to rise to record levels, the Green Mountain State’s per-capita rate of homelessness remains among the highest in the nation.

That’s according to a new analysis of the 2024 point-in-time count, a coordinated, federally-mandated tally of unhoused people taken each January. The annual report on the count, which took place nearly a year ago, was released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development late last week.

The department found that about 53 out of every 10,000 Vermonters were unhoused when the count took place, putting Vermont fourth on the state-by-state list. In 2022 and 2023, it had the second-highest rate in the nation, a distinction that turned heads as Vermont’s homelessness crisis has grown more visible. 

But Vermont’s shift in this oft-cited nationwide comparison shouldn’t necessarily be read as an indication of improvement locally, said Anne Sosin, a public health researcher at Dartmouth College who studies homelessness.

“I wouldn’t take it as a hopeful sign that it’s fourth instead of second,” Sosin said.

While Vermont’s homeless population rose 5% last year, to a record 3,458 people in January 2024, other states saw much more dramatic increases.

Catastrophic wildfires in Maui displaced thousands of people from their homes, the HUD report notes, with many sleeping in disaster emergency shelters when the count took place in January. Hawaii saw an 87% rise in homelessness year-over-year, with 81 people per 10,000 residents recorded as unhoused — the highest rate in the nation. New York shared the same rate, which increased this year, in part, due to an influx of asylum seekers to New York City’s shelter system, according to the report. 

Across the country, the annual tally registered the highest number of people experiencing homelessness ever recorded since the point-in-time count began in 2007. Over 771,000 people nationwide were unhoused at the time of the count: a 18% rise from the 2023 count.

The “worsening national affordable housing crisis,” inflation, stagnating wages, and “the persisting effects of systemic racism have stretched homelessness services systems to their limits,” the report notes. And the end of pandemic-era supports, like the expanded child tax credit, have also likely contributed to the national rise in homelessness, it says. 

The point-in-time count figure is generally considered to be an undercount. HUD does not tally people who are doubling up with relatives or couch-surfing, and people who are unsheltered are often more difficult to find.

Even as the number of people experiencing homelessness has ticked up, the HUD analysis reflects that Vermont has done a better job than most other states at keeping unhoused people indoors. Over 95% of Vermont’s homeless population was in some form of shelter as of January — either a traditional shelter, or a hotel or motel covered by an emergency housing voucher. Only neighboring New York had a higher rate of people in shelter, according to the report.

Still, the January tally recorded a jump in the number of people living unsheltered in Vermont from a year earlier. And observers expect the 2025 count, which will take place in a few weeks, will capture an even larger number of people sleeping outdoors or in their vehicles.

That’s because over 1,500 people were pushed out of the state’s motel voucher program this fall, after a series of cost-cutting measures went into effect. The program’s rules have since loosened for the winter, allowing some people to re-enter, though cold-weather access is more limited now than in previous years and both shelter space and motel rooms are scarce. 

Already this winter, Burlington officials have observed more people living outside than this time last year, said Sarah Russell, the city’s special assistant to end homelessness. When the city opened an extreme cold-weather shelter for the weekend before Christmas — in part because the opening of its regular seasonal shelter has been delayed until the new year — “the number of folks that we saw there was huge,” Russell said. About 50 people showed up the first night, and 80 the next. 

“It’s just too cold for people to be living outside,” Russell said.

The HUD report does show signs of progress. Nationally, homelessness among veterans dropped 8% last year — to the lowest number on record, according to a HUD press release. That success can be chalked up to specific housing programs targeted at veterans, the report says, and is often lauded by homelessness advocates as a model for how to tackle homelessness among other groups. 

“When there are more resources that are poured into, you know, housing supports for specific sub-populations of folks — the result of that is that it actually drives the numbers down,” Russell said.

The press release also notes several places that saw decreases in homelessness over the past year. Dallas saw its homelessness numbers drop after launching a new program to connect unsheltered people to long-term housing while closing encampments. Chester County, Penn., has seen a nearly 60% drop in homelessness since 2019, after putting in place eviction prevention programs, expanding “housing first” training initiatives, increasing affordable housing groups, and providing fair housing education for migrant workers, according to the release.

When Vermont lawmakers kick off the 2025 legislative session next week, they will get their next chance to tackle the state’s homelessness problem. Their return comes after several deaths of people living outside that have captured the public’s attention in recent weeks. 

“My question to Vermont legislators is: how are we going to keep the population experiencing homelessness alive while we make progress on solving homelessness as a state?” said Sosin, the Dartmouth researcher.