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Why Pennsylvania is conducting a risk-limiting audit of the 2022 midterm election

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Why Pennsylvania is conducting a risk-limiting audit of the 2022 midterm election


As half of what is going to be a routine effort to confirm Pennsylvania’s election outcomes, the Division of State has requested counties to carry out what’s often called a risk-limiting audit.

The Division of State examined that sort of poll examine in 2020, when it ordered counties to assessment 45,000 randomly-selected ballots. The audit that yr confirmed proof that the outcomes had been correct – regardless of efforts by some Republican state leaders to amplify former President Donald Trump’s election fraud lie.

Election audits got here into sharp reduction following the 2020 election, when activist teams started calling for them, believing they’d reveal widespread impropriety. That yr’s risk-limiting audit and one other routine audit of two p.c of ballots in all counties confirmed that outcomes had been correct. Quite a few different investigations by consultants of each events confirmed that discovering.

This yr marks the primary time the Division of State is checking ballots utilizing a risk-limiting audit on a full statewide scale. It plans to do one yearly any longer. Division of State Performing Secretary Leigh Chapman has referred to as them “ the gold commonplace of sturdy election audits.”

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14 different states, together with swing states like Georgia and Michigan, examine their election outcomes utilizing risk-limiting audits.

What’s a risk-limiting audit, or RLA? 

They’re designed to cut back the prospect that an election is licensed for the incorrect candidate. To try this, election officers have picked a race to assessment – on this case, the one for Governor between Lawyer Common Josh Shapiro and state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Franklin) – and on Thursday, they chose teams of ballots at random that every county should assessment.

A gaggle of company workers rolled ten-sided cube to generate a 20 digit “seed” quantity, which tells a pc software program program which teams of ballots counties should examine.

“Groups of auditors in every county will manually assessment and hand-tally the votes forged for Pennsylvania governor from the ballots in these batches,” Deputy Secretary Jonathan Marks mentioned. “As soon as all counties have reported their outcomes of their audit, the Division of State will compile and consider the statewide outcomes to find out whether or not the danger restrict has been met.”

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In different phrases, whether or not the outcome matches what the audit discovered.

Marks added that as a result of this yr’s audit will solely assessment the race for Governor, every county will solely should examine a comparatively small variety of ballots.

“The variety of ballots required by the RLA is race-specific and is dependent upon the margin between the successful candidate and the runner-up. The smaller the margin, the extra ballots that have to be audited.”

Shapiro gained the race by greater than 14 share factors, however an audit nonetheless must be carried out to be sure that result’s correct throughout the state.

Why use an RLA over some other sort of audit?

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Each election, counties examine at the very least two p.c of all ballots they reviewed for errors. In some smaller counties, at the very least 2,000 are checked. However that small pattern of ballots isn’t at all times probably the most consultant of a county’s election outcome – and reviewing that group alone isn’t at all times the best technique to root out any potential issues.

Pennsylvania’s election system usually delivers correct election outcomes, however stray poll errors or voting file mismatches occur every now and then.

A risk-limiting audit is designed to catch points like that and examine them to find out whether or not they’re widespread.

“If the reported consequence is deemed incorrect, an RLA will proceed to develop and will result in a full recount of the competition,” Marks added.

In different phrases, if counties discover any problematic ballots within the first batch of ballots they examine, they examine one other group to see in the event that they discover any extra. Extra errors results in extra checking, which is meant to cease dangerous election outcomes earlier than it’s too late.

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Threat-limiting audits work particularly nicely in shut races: by design, election staff should scrutinize extra ballots from the beginning, which will increase the prospect they’ll catch counting errors.





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Pennsylvania

It’s up to Pennsylvania voters to decide what kind of attorney general they want, and whether independence matters | PennLive Editorial

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It’s up to Pennsylvania voters to decide what kind of attorney general they want, and whether independence matters | PennLive Editorial


Who gets your vote to become the next Attorney General of Pennsylvania depends on what you care about most and whether you want someone with experience as a state official or as a prosecutor at the county level.

It also depends on whether you want someone with the courage to take independent stands apart from party politics and powerful officials.



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Obama to campaign for Harris in Pennsylvania, other key states

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Obama to campaign for Harris in Pennsylvania, other key states


Former President Obama is preparing to hit the campaign trail next week for Vice President Harris, focusing on key battleground states in the lead up to Election Day, according to a senior campaign official with anonymity to discuss the matter.

Obama, who served back-to-back terms as president from 2009 through 2017, will kick off his drive in the Pittsburgh area of Pennsylvania on Thursday, a state which remains one of the tightest contests in the nation and which could tip the scales for either candidate. 

A Fox News survey of Pennsylvania voters last week found Harris narrowly ahead of Trump by 2 points (50-48%) among registered voters, while the race is tied at 49% each among likely voters. President Biden won the state by more than 80,000 votes in 2020. 

‘GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE:’ DETROITERS REVEAL IF THE CITY IS LEANING TOWARDS HARRIS OR TRUMP

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Former President Obama speaking during the Democratic National Convention (DNC) at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois on August 20. Obama is preparing to hit the campaign trail next week for Vice President Harris, focusing on key battleground states in the lead up to Election Day. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

President Obama’s Senior Advisor Eric Schultz tells Fox News that the 44th president is determined to help Harris and other Democrats get elected. 

“President Obama believes the stakes of this election could not be more consequential and that is why he is doing everything he can to help elect Vice President Harris, Governor Walz and Democrats across the country,” Schultz said. 

“His goals are to win the White House, keep the U.S. Senate, and take back the House of Representatives. Now that voting has begun, our focus is on persuading and mobilizing voters, especially in states with key races. Many of these races are likely to go down to the wire and nothing should be taken for granted.”

Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama officially endorsed Harris for president in July, five days after President Biden ended his 2024 re-election in a blockbuster announcement. 

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President Obama then stumped for Harris at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, saying she “is ready for the job.”

“It’s up to all of us to fight for the America we believe in,” Obama said. “And make no mistake: It will be a fight.”

“This is a person who has spent her life fighting on behalf of people who need a voice and a champion. Kamala wasn’t born into privilege. She had to work for what she’s got, and she actually cares about what other people are going through.”

NEW POLL INDICATES WHETHER HARRIS OR TRUMP IS MAKING GAINS WITH YOUNGER VOTERS

Kamala Harris takes the stage on Day 4 of the Democratic National Convention

Vice President Kamala Harris takes the stage on Day 4 of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 22. (REUTERS/Mike Segar)

Harris and Obama’s friendship goes back 20 years to when they met on the campaign trail while he was running for Senate in Illinois, the senior campaign official says. Harris was an early supporter of his 2008 presidential campaign and even knocked doors for him in Iowa ahead of the caucus, per the official. 

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Last month, former President Obama headlined a fundraiser for Harris that raised $4 million, per the Washington Post. 

His fundraising efforts so far on her behalf have raised $76 million, per the outlet, according to Schultz. 

In the coming weeks President Obama will sign additional fundraising emails, record candidate-specific ads and robocalls for down-ballot races and travel the country for a coordinated “get out the vote” effort, Schultz says. 

Harris’ campaign is headed by Jen O’Malley Dillon Harris, a veteran of Obama’s two campaigns who also managed President Biden’s 2020 campaign and built his 2024 operation from the White House.

Other former Obama advisers on the Harris team, include David Plouffe, who was manager of Obama’s presidential campaign in 2008 and a senior aide during his 2012 re-election victory.

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Vice President Kamala Harris, left, arrives to speak at a campaign event with former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., right, at Ripon College in Ripon, Wis., on Thursday. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Vice President Kamala Harris, left, arrives to speak at a campaign event with former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., right, at Ripon College in Ripon, Wis., on Thursday. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Harris campaigned in battleground Wisconsin on Thursday where she campaigned with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney.

Trump, meanwhile, is scheduled to return to Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday for a campaign event. It will mark his first return to Butler since the attempted assassination on July 13.

During a rally Wednesday in Mint Hill, North Carolina, Trump said that he wanted to return to the venue to “finish our speech.”

Reuters contributed to this report. 

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DePasquale and Sunday square off in first Pennsylvania attorney general debate • Pennsylvania Capital-Star

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DePasquale and Sunday square off in first Pennsylvania attorney general debate • Pennsylvania Capital-Star


For the first time ahead of the general election, the Democratic and Republican candidates for Pennsylvania attorney general faced off in a debate on Thursday.

Former Pennsylvania Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, a Democrat, and York County District Attorney Dave Sunday, a Republican, discussed a wide range of issues for an hour on WGAL.

“Number one, we must make sure that we protect our democracy,” DePasquale replied in an answer to what his top priority would be if elected. “It has clearly been under threat, and we also have to make sure that our democracy is working for everybody.”

DePasquale said the next attorney general will be tasked with litigation to protect everyone’s right to vote. He also listed protecting communities, abortion rights, seniors, and children as priorities.

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“I can tell you right now, if our community’s not safe, nothing else matters,” Sunday responded. “Our children are facing a brutal epidemic in fentanyl that kills 15 Pennsylvanians every day.”

Sunday also added keeping children and seniors safe as top priorities.

Pennsylvania Attorney General Michele Henry is not seeking reelection, making the race to become the state’s top law enforcement official the only statewide open seat this cycle.

DePasquale, who served as the state’s auditor general from 2013 to 2021, highlighted his office’s work leading investigations finding over 3,000 untested rape kits, and 58,000 unanswered phone calls to the child abuse hotline, while highlighting personal experiences that he says will prepare him for the office.

“I’m the only one that’s run a complicated statewide agency,” DePasquale said. “That’s the type of leadership we’ll need on day one.”

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Sunday, who is in his second term as York County District Attorney, detailed his 15-year record as a prosecutor and overseeing an office that has seen crime rates decrease. 

“Only one person standing here has ever been a prosecutor. Only one person standing here has ever been in front of a jury. Only one person standing here has ever conducted a criminal investigation,” Sunday said.

Both candidates promoted endorsements they’ve received during the debate. DePasquale touted having the support of Gov. Josh Shapiro and Planned Parenthood, while Sunday pointed to endorsements from the Pennsylvania Fraternal Order of Police and the Pennsylvania State Troopers Association.

Although the debate remained heavily focused on policy, the two did direct some direct shots at the other over experience.

Gun Control

DePasquale said the state is “pretty good” at cracking down on those who pull the trigger, but called for holding the person accountable for selling the gun illegally.

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He also said he’d advocate the state Legislature to implement universal background checks, close the gun show loophole, and red flag laws.

Sunday said that the “group violence initiative” in York County has helped reduce shootings and holding people accountable, while also saying that “constant communication” with the Black ministers association, nonprofits, and block leaders also helped improve outcomes.

Abortion

The candidates offered different responses when asked if they would prosecute a person or a doctor for performing an abortion, should a ban take effect in Pennsylvania. Under current state law, abortion is legal up to 24 weeks of pregnancy.

“I want to be very clear. I will never prosecute a woman or a doctor that performs an abortion. If you want someone that’s going to put a woman in jail that has an abortion, you’re going to need another attorney general, because it’s not going to be me,” DePasquale said. He also added that he’d protect any woman coming to Pennsylvania for an abortion from one of the states that has a ban. 

DePasquale highlighted his family’s personal experience, saying his wife had an ectopic pregnancy that was “technically an abortion,” that saved her life and allowed her to give birth to two kids later on.

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Sunday said he talks about the issue on a regular basis with his wife and mother and added that “like I would every other law, I would absolutely enforce and defend the abortion laws in Pennsylvania,” citing the state’s current laws.

In regards to potential future legislation to ban abortion in Pennsylvania, Sunday said “it would never happen.”

DePasquale referenced Republicans in the state legislature who support a constitutional amendment that would create the ban and reemphasized his position. Sunday responded by saying “as a prosecutor, as a district attorney, we follow the facts and the law,” and said “there’s no scenario that exists where I would ever prosecute a woman for having an abortion.”

Death penalty 

The candidates discussed the serious nature of capital punishment and shared slightly different positions.

DePasquale said he has “serious concerns” about the death penalty, saying he believes life in prison is a “very tough sentence,” but said “it is the law and we will enforce the law to the fullest extent.”

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“But I want to make it clear I have deep reservations about capital punishment, as does Gov. Shapiro, and I do support the legislature making it illegal in Pennsylvania,” DePasquale said.

Sunday cited the work on the issue he’s made through the district attorneys association, calling those cases “some of the absolute most sad, tragic, terrible cases you could possibly have.”

“The legislature has made it clear that there are certain factors that if they’re at play, then the jury could have the ability to render a verdict of death. When you talk about some of the brutal, violent murders of police officers, the just sad, brutal murders of children, if the death penalty is called for in those cases, then I will support it and I will seek the death penalty,” Sunday said. “But we have to be very cautious about it. We have to be thoughtful about it, and it has to be the last resort, not the first.”

Immigration 

Sunday detailed how important legal immigration is to society and mentioned that his wife moved to the United States from Sri Lanka, but that the current situation of migrants crossing at the U.S. Southern border was affecting those in the Keystone State. 

DePasquale also reiterated that the United States is a nation of immigrants, but said “it should be legal immigration.” He also called for compassion to those who are already here, particularly the children born in the U.S.

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Elections

The debate moderator, WGAL’s Brian Roach, referenced Gov. Josh Shapiro, the state’s previous attorney general, being tasked with pushing back on lawsuits following the 2020 presidential election and asked the candidates how they would uphold results in “future free and fair elections.”

“As attorney general, regardless of who we vote for, our job is to make sure that any voter that is legally allowed to cast a vote and cast that vote legally has that vote fairly counted,” DePasquale said. “And the person that loses that election that happens to be a sore loser and files election lawsuits based on that, we cannot let that distort our judgment. We must defend Pennsylvania’s law.”

Sunday said he would handle such a case “just like I’ve handled everything that’s come across my desk, in a nonpartisan fashion. It is very simple, you apply the facts to the law. It doesn’t matter what your political party is. It doesn’t matter if you’re right, left, up, down, middle, none of it matters because our Constitution and our country is what comes first.”

Marijuana 

The two candidates also shared different views when asked about the benefits or drawbacks of legalizing recreational marijuana.

Sunday believes there has to be a voice in the discussion about safety, citing DUIs as examples.

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“And so, because of how serious this is, you know, once you put the toothpaste out of the tube, it’s not going back in,” Sunday said. “We have to at least consider the public safety impact of this as we progress.”

DePasquale has supported the legalization and taxation of marijuana since 2017 and said it would be smart policy and smart safety to the communities if it is legalized.

“By legalizing it, you would actually make it harder for children to get it. You’d also make sure that the product is safer. You would also make sure that law enforcement is involved in the drafting of it. And certainly we need to make sure that we have the technology available for that anyone that’s driving under the influence, whether it be alcohol or marijuana, is prosecuted fully on that.”

A Franklin & Marshall College poll released in April showed that 62% of registered voters in Pennsylvania think recreational marijuana should be legalized in the state.

Racial disparities in criminal justice

Both candidates said they take the matter seriously, although had slightly different responses to how they currently view the matter. 

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“Do I believe that there are times when people have racist intentions out there? The answer is yes. Do I believe that there are times that there are two justice systems for people of color and for people that aren’t? Yes,” DePasquale said. “And do I also think there are sometimes two justice systems for people that have economic means and people that don’t. The answer to that is yes.” 

“I can tell you that there’s no one that would not acknowledge that at some point in the past, there were racial disparities in our criminal justice system,” Sunday said. 

“What I can say is that as we’ve moved forward, we have embraced things like procedural justice,” Sunday added, and discussed the education and training he’s embraced in his position to take the matter seriously.

Both candidates also referenced the wrongful conviction unit as important to the office of attorney general. 

Unlike the race for president and U.S. Senate, there have not been as many public polls made available for the race for attorney general, however, an AARP-commissioned poll that was released on Oct. 1 showed DePasquale with 47% and Sunday at 44%, within the poll’s margin of error.

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While DePasquale and Sunday were the only candidates on the stage on Thursday and are the frontrunners in the race, they are not the only candidates on the ballot for the statewide office. The Constitution Party’s Justin Magill, the Forward Party’s Eric Settle, the Green Party’s Richard Weiss, and Libertarian Party’s Robert Cowburn are also seeking the seat.

DePasquale and Sunday will face off again for a 60 minute debate on Oct. 15 at 7 PM, hosted by ABC27’s Dennis Owens, which will broadcast statewide.

Oct. 21 is the last day to register to vote in Pennsylvania for the general election. The deadline to apply for a mail-in or absentee ballot ballot is Oct. 29. 

The Pennsylvania general election is Nov. 5.

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