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The retaliatory cycle has Iran and Israel firmly in its grip

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The retaliatory cycle has Iran and Israel firmly in its grip

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The writer is author of ‘Command’ and the Substack ‘Comment is Freed’

There is a famous joke about a frog on the banks of the River Jordan. A scorpion asks for a ride across. “Why would I do that?” says the frog. “If you get on my back you will sting me.” The scorpion explains that he, too, would drown. Reassured the frog carries him, until halfway, the scorpion stings the frog. “Why?” cries the frog, “Now we are both doomed.” Because, comes back the reply, “this is the Middle East.”

It is now a year since Hamas triggered this latest cycle of violence. For Israel, the stakes have grown as its focus has shifted from Gaza to Lebanon. Last week, it inflicted a major blow by killing Hizbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah made his name in 2006 when the Iran-backed paramilitary group fought Israel to a standstill. His success in exposing Israel’s vulnerabilities made him a hero around the Arab world, with Sunni as well as Shia, assuring him an exalted place among Iran’s partners and strengthening his position as the vital powerbroker in Lebanese politics.

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Yet Nasrallah got caught in the tensions between his Iranian and Lebanese roles. He was held responsible by many for Lebanon’s chronic economic misery and political instability while Hizbollah’s position as the most prominent member of the Iranian-orchestrated “axis of resistance” took precedence.

After October 7, Hizbollah, still acting as part of the axis, opened up a second front as Israel began its invasion of Gaza. It was comparatively restrained, although engagements were heavy enough to require civilians to evacuate in large numbers on both sides of the border. It did enough to show solidarity with Hamas but not so much as to trigger a wider war. Israel therefore could concentrate on Hamas and leave Hizbollah until later.

As a result, Hizbollah failed to maximise its military impact at a time when Israel was most exposed, while doing enough to ensure that Israel would turn on them once they got the chance. This new stage in the war came with the elimination of much of the top layers of command, beginning with the notorious pager detonations and culminating in the assassination of Nasrallah himself. Now the IDF has embarked on what it has described as a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon, to destroy as much as possible of Hizbollah’s military infrastructure.

All this put Iran in a quandary as Israel struck blows against its proxies while it stayed on the sidelines. Back in April, Tehran responded to several senior commanders being killed in an attack on its embassy compound in Damascus by sending large numbers of drones and missiles towards Israel. But most either failed to reach their targets or were shot down. Even after more provocations, including the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran, it did nothing.

Hizbollah is supposedly part of Iran’s deterrent threat yet has been methodically dismantled by Israel. Nasrallah’s assassination brought the issue to a head. The recently elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, aware of the parlous state of Iran’s economy and widespread popular discontent, sought continuing restraint. But he is subordinate to the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, backed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. For them more restraint was humiliating. And so on Tuesday night, 181 ballistic missiles hurtled towards targets in Israel. Most were caught by air defences, though some got through, including to airfields. After the strike Iran indicated that it wanted no further escalation.

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In Israel there was soon talk of the opportunity this creates for a decisive retaliatory attack that could even complete the process of taking apart the whole Iranian axis by going for Iran itself. This has led to speculation about possible targets. If Israel opts for military installations, Iran will be faced with the same dilemma as before — to respond with missiles or take the hit. But Israel has more ambitious options. US President Joe Biden has urged it to avoid nuclear installations but acknowledged that it might attack oil facilities. If it does, Khamenei has promised Iran’s next strikes might target Israel’s energy infrastructure. It could also generate an international oil crisis by closing the Straits of Hormuz.

Nor is Israel in a position to engineer regime change in Tehran. If this happens it will be because of the actions of ordinary Iranians. And while Israel has been able to demonstrate its military superiority, and has severely weakened its regional adversaries, Iran still has a large stock of ballistic missiles. Nor does Israel have unlimited air defence missiles, particularly the long-range Arrow that has played a critical role in thwarting Iran’s previous attacks.

The Lebanese caretaker government, coping with a humanitarian crisis, is desperate for an end to hostilities, but Hizbollah is still firing rockets across the border and inflicting casualties on the IDF as they battle for control of southern Lebanon. Residents cannot get back to their homes. A ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza remains elusive.

The balance of power within Tehran is not conducive to a full strategic reappraisal. Israel, for its part, may feel that while there are targets to hit, it must carry on striking them. Yet it remains unclear how it intends to turn its military success to its political advantage and agree arrangements that might actually bring some long-term stability to its borders. It is not that it is impossible to imagine how this might be done — but this is still the Middle East.

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Video: Our Photographers’ Favorite Campaign Trail Photos

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Video: Our Photographers’ Favorite Campaign Trail Photos

How did they get those photos? Doug Mills, who has been photographing former President Donald J. Trump for The New York Times, and Erin Schaff, who has been photographing Vice President Kamala Harris, tell the stories behind their favorite photos of the candidates.

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Donald Trump victory bets and strong US economy power dollar gains

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Donald Trump victory bets and strong US economy power dollar gains

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The dollar has roared to its biggest monthly gain in more than two years, propelled by bets that strong economic data and a victory for Donald Trump in next week’s presidential election will lead to interest rates staying higher for longer.

An index measuring the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, including the pound and Japan’s yen, jumped 3.2 per cent in October, its best month since April 2022.

Economists and strategists said the greenback’s sharp rise reflected persistent signs of economic resilience, including surprisingly strong September payrolls data and evidence of higher consumer spending.

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“It’s been the perfect storm of dollar-supportive information over the last few weeks,” said Eric Winograd, chief economist at AllianceBernstein. “Our data continues to paint a picture of an economy that isn’t really slowing.”

Market participants said increasing expectations in the market of a Republican election victory had bolstered the dollar’s appeal.

The latest polls put Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris virtually neck and neck, setting the stage for an extremely tight race on November 5.

Investors believe that if Trump wins and trade tariffs and tax cuts are implemented, then inflationary pressures would be compounded and the Federal Reserve would be less likely to cut interest rates rapidly.

“It’s a combination of better than expected economic data. [And] also the growing consensus that Trump is likely to win the election,” said Andrzej Skiba, head of Bluebay US fixed income at RBC Global Asset Management. “With Trump, you could expect greater pressure on inflation than otherwise would be the case.”

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While Trump has stated his preference for a softer dollar, strategists said it is logistically difficult to weaken a currency.

After policymakers lowered rates by an unusually large 0.5 percentage points in September, markets priced in at least one more jumbo-sized cut before the year-end.

But those expectations have been scaled back over the past month. Futures markets are pricing in a quarter-point reduction at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and those views were cemented after October payrolls came in much lower than expected on Friday, albeit distorted by major hurricanes and worker strikes, while the unemployment rate held steady.

Markets at the end of this week showed rising odds of another quarter-point cut in December.

Still, were Harris to win the election, Mark McCormick, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, does not “think Harris is fundamentally negative for the dollar”.

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Some positions may unwind if Trump loses the election, he said. “But that’s a dip,” he added. “Data, central banks, the economic outlook — all of those things are moving back in favour of the US.”

For AllianceBernstein’s Winograd, “the extent of that [currency] weakening has to be limited by the [recent economic] data being positive . . . I don’t think the dollar will undo an entire month’s worth of gains.”

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Who is Liz Cheney? Trump fantasises her being shot during chat with Tucker Carlson

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Who is Liz Cheney? Trump fantasises her being shot during chat with Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump has the latest violent fantasy days before elections and features Liz Cheney. During a recent campaign appearance, the former president fantasised about the attorney being shot in the face. He also called her a “radical war hawk”. His remark resulted in massive outrage and backlash from the netizens.

Donald Trump recently made violent remarks about Liz Cheney, suggesting she should be shot. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque(REUTERS)

Also Read: US election in numbers: Who won the donation race, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

Who is Liz Cheney?

Liz is a 58-year-old attorney and former republican politician. She served as a former congresswoman from Wyoming who served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2017 to 2023. She is known for her strong conservative views and for being a vocal critic of Trump. She has been a sore spot for Trump since she switched to Kamala Harris’ side.

Previously she was a supporter of the Republican presidential nominee, however, this support went for a toss after the January 6 Capitol attack. She stated that Trump’s actions during the Capitol riot in 2021 showed he “can never be trusted with power again,” as reported by BBC. In the past month, she has campaigned alongside Harris to connect with disaffected Republicans in key swing states.

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Liz is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney under George W. Bush and was a key architect of the Iraq War. She has often defended her father’s decisions regarding military interventions and has been an advocate for a strong American presence on the global stage. However, she has also faced criticism for her support of the Iraq War and has taken a stand against the withdrawal from Afghanistan. This is another point where she locked horns with Trump because of the latter’s approach to foreign policy and national security.

She has co-authored three books with her father: his autobiography My Time: A Personal and Political Memoir (2011), Exceptional: Why the World Needs a Powerful America (2015), and Heart: An American Medical Odyssey (2013), the latter written with her father’s heart surgeon.

In 2023, she published her own memoir, Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning, which details the January 6th attack, its causes, and its aftermath.

Also Read: Melania Trump leaves NYC with son Barron for next ‘big move’ ahead of the US elections

What was Trump’s violent fantasy about Liz Cheney?

Trump joined conservative broadcaster, Tucker Carlson on Thursday night at an event in Glendale, Arizona. He criticised the Iraq war, highlighting Cheney’s decision to pardon Scooter Libby, who was convicted of lying to investigators in 2007.

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He then took a jab at his daughter Liz as he said, “His daughter is a very dumb individual, very dumb. She’s a radical war hawk.” Trump added, “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. Let’s see how she feels about it. You know when the guns are trained on her face,” as reported by The Independent.

He also criticised the government officials before one final blow at Liz. The former president said, “They’re all war hawks when they’re sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, ‘Oh, gee, well, let’s send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy.” He continued “But she’s a stupid person. And I used to have meetings with a lot of people and she always wanted to go to war with people.”

Netizens were infuriated with Trup’s violent comment as one user wrote on X, “As a woman I do not tolerate threats against other women, I stand with Liz Cheney. Trump is not fit for office.” A second user wrote, “Isn’t it the mark of a true Coward to threaten a Woman?” A third user wrote, “As a man and an American I DO NOT tolerate threats against women…Anyone for that matter!!! I stand with Liz and all who are threatened by weak men who feel they are entitled to make threats and try to exhibit dominance over anyone…”

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